Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1010 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft...except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms in the evening...then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...diminishing to light chop.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 7 to 10 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...increasing to choppy. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 301404
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1004 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will gradually push off the coast today. A warm
front will move through from the southwest Friday, followed
by a cold front early Saturday. Another warm front will lift
north through the area Monday night, followed by a cold front
Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 10 am Thursday... Clouds continue to overspread the
forecast area from the west. Forecast in good shape. No changes
needed this morning.

High pressure ridging south into the region will gradually push
off the east coast today. Expect dry conditions but will see
increasing clouds as an expanding area of mid clouds across the
piedmont build into the region followed by increasing upper
level moisture ahead of a strong low pressure system pushing
east of the mississippi river valley. Continued NE to E winds
will bring a wide range of temps again today with highs around
60 across the obx to the lower 70s southern sections.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday/
As of 330 am Thursday... Moisture continues to increase tonight
as a robust low pressure system continues to advance toward the
region. Shower chances increase late tonight as strengthening
upper level dynamics move in from the west with showers likely
across western sections toward daybreak. Clouds and increasing
se flow will keep temps mild tonight with lows generally in the
low to mid 50s.

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/
As of 305 am Thursday... Wet and stormy weather Friday will be
followed by a nice weekend. Another potent system will impact
the area Monday night into Tuesday of next week.

Friday and Friday night... A potent mid-level shortwave ahead of
a surface cold front... Coupled with deep moisture with
precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches at
times... Will lead to a rather wet and stormy Friday across
eastern nc. The mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt
during the early part of Friday with 850 mb winds approaching 50
knots by mid-morning Friday. While wind shear and mid-level
dynamics will be impressive with this system... The primary
question will be the degree of instability that occurs. The
nam12 indicates capes of around 1500 j/kg with supercell
composite numbers of 5-7 over the southern cwa. The GFS has
similar CAPE numbers... While the ECMWF is not as unstable. Spc
has continue to have our entire CWA in a marginal threat of
severe weather with hail being the primary threat with a
secondary strong wind threat. Some of the high-resolution
guidance indicates some showers in the morning... Followed by
clearing and destabilization with a second round of storms in
the afternoon. It will be quite warm ahead of the front Friday
with highs 70 to 75 degrees with upper 60s along the outer
banks. While the threat of strong to severe convection wanes
Friday night... Lingering showers will continue into early
morning Saturday before ending.

Saturday through Sunday night... Once the rain pushes offshore
early Saturday... A nice spring weekend should follow as surface
high pressure and a mid-level ridge builds across the carolinas.

Comfortable temperatures are expected with highs both Saturday
and Sunday in the low to mid 70s inland... Although the outer
banks will be cooler on Sunday with mid 50s northern sections
versus mid 60s on Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday... Another potent mid-level closed low
will work its way slowly from the lower mississippi valley to
the carolinas early next week. The ECMWF has the upper low
placement a bit to the north of the GFS on the latest model
cycle. Regardless... Another round of potential heavy rainfall
and perhaps strong to severe thunderstorms is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. While the dynamics and low-level wind fields
are again impressive... The amount of destabilization will again
be key to the amounts and/or mode of any strong to severe storms
during this time frame. Precipitable water will again top 1.5
inches so some areas of heavy rain will be possible. Mild
temperatures will continue with highs mid 60s outer banks to mid
70s inland and lows generally in the 50s.

Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 10 am Thursday... PredVFR conditions expected through the
taf period. Clouds increase today and especially tonight ahead
of the next system but CIGS expected to remainVFR until late
tonight when showers will begin to move into the area with sub-
vfr conditions possible.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...

as of 315 am Thursday... Widespread MVFR/ifr conditions are
likely Friday into Friday night with numerous showers and a few
strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall amounts. Conditions
improve by early Saturday and through the weekend with surface
high pressure and a mid-level ridge building across the
carolinas. Moisture will be returning Monday in advance of the
next system with a few scattered showers and possible tstms late
in the day with some sub-vfr conditions possible.

Marine
Short term /today and tonight/...

as of 10 am Thursday... Latest obs show northeast winds 10-20
knots. Seas running 4-5 feet, with 7 feet at diamond shoals
buoy. Latest marine zones in good shape. No changes made this
morning.

High pressure across the region will slowly move offshore today
with a low pressure system approaching from the west tonight.

Expect e/ne winds around 10-15kt today, becoming SE 10-20kt
tonight with gusts increasing to around 25kt across the southern
and central waters after midnight. Seas continue around 3-5ft
across the waters early this morning except up to 6ft across the
central waters. Seas have been a little slow to come down and
will extend the SCA for the central waters until 7am this
morning. Seas around 3-5ft expected today through this evening,
increasing to 4-7 ft after midnight in response to increased se
flow.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...

as of 315 am Thursday... Elevated seas will rapidly move up the
coast from southwest to northeast early Friday ahead of strong
oncoming system. Gusty southerly winds will push seas to as high
as 8-9 feet per local swan/nwps model Friday into Friday night.

Winds veer to w/wnw Saturday with seas subsiding over most
waters by later Saturday night. After a lull early on
Sunday... Strong low pressure over well east of new england will
send increased back swell energy back toward north carolina with
the waters north of CAPE hatteras building to 6 feet or greater
Sunday afternoon. By early Monday... Gusty southwest winds ahead
of the next system will lead to seas once again building from
south to north with values as high as 9-11 feet possible by
Monday afternoon.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Friday to 11 am edt Saturday
for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Friday to 5 am edt Saturday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Hsa/sk
short term... Sk
long term... Ctc
aviation... Hsa/sk/ctc
marine... Hsa/sk/ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi50 min ENE 8.9 G 13 63°F 61°F1020.6 hPa
41064 30 mi90 min NE 16 G 19 63°F 1020.7 hPa
41159 30 mi55 min 65°F5 ft
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi38 min NE 18 G 20 60°F 1021 hPa (+0.3)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi50 min NE 13 G 16 59°F 61°F1019.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi39 min 59°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi90 min ENE 12 G 21 59°F 58°F1020.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi90 min E 16 G 21 67°F 74°F1019.7 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 45 mi113 min ENE 12 59°F 1020 hPa53°F
WLON7 46 mi50 min 70°F 62°F1020.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC12 mi41 minVar 510.00 miFair67°F48°F53%1021.8 hPa
MCAS New River, NC14 mi42 minENE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F50°F55%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N8--E8
G17
NE8NE9NE7E9E10E9E7E6NE4NE4NE6NE6NE7NE7N7N7NE6E10NE75
1 day ago--S7SW11S8SW105SW74SW5SW4NW4Calm--NW4NW4NW3NW3NW5N65NE6NE12NE11
G21
NE9
2 days agoSW9S7S8S8S8S6S8SW5S8S8SW5S6SW3SW5SW8SW7W5SW3SW5SW4SW4SW8SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:00 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:02 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:29 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.50.5-0.2-0.5-0.30.41.32.333.232.41.50.5-0.2-0.5-0.30.31.32.43.33.83.8

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:58 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.810.2-0.3-0.5-0.30.20.91.72.22.42.21.710.3-0.3-0.5-0.30.20.91.82.52.82.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.