Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:23 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 339 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 339 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front will impact the area late in the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 290806 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 406 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front will impact the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 230 AM Monday...

Given how active this time of year could be, the weather is expected to be remarkably quiet today thanks to mid/upper level ridging overhead. At the surface, high pressure has slid further south which will keep more of a southwesterly low-level flow going. This combined with warming low-level thicknesses will support above to well above normal highs away from the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
As of 230 AM Monday...

Mid/upper level ridging remains overhead tonight, with a continued southwesterly flow helping support mild, above normal, overnight temperatures. One potential fly in the ointment for tonight is the potential development of fog/stratus. The orientation of the high offshore will support a moistening southwesterly flow, with dewpoints forecast to rise into the low 60s through the night. Forecast soundings suggest the depth of low-level moistening may be sufficiently deep to support some low stratus, or fog, development. At minimum, it could be a scenario where at least patchy fog is able to develop that has more depth to it than the patchy ground fog of late.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Above normal temperatures persist on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves east across the SECONUS. Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not making its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance expected to pass during Wednesday's peak heating, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

The next 6-12 hours are expected to be very similar to this time 24 hrs ago. Conditions still do not appear conducive to widespread, impactful FG, but MIFG and the accompanying drop in VIS will be possible (40-60% chance). On Monday, it looks like another seabreeze forecast, with winds increasing some as the seabreeze passes. Late Monday night, continued low-level moisture advection may support a risk of low stratus clouds and/or BR/FG, but the best chance looks to hold off until after the current 06z TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Relatively good boating conditions are expected through tonight. However, there are a couple of caveats worth mentioning. The diurnal increase in southwesterly winds associated with the developing thermal gradient may support a few gusts to 25kt for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound.
The duration and magnitude forecast appears too marginal for any marine headlines, and I'll continue to hold off on this for now. For the coastal waters, seas are forecast to hold in the 2-4 ft range through this evening. By tonight, long period swell arriving from the Northern Atlantic may lead to seas building to 3-5 ft, especially north of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:15 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
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New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bogue Inlet
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Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
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Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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