Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swansboro, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:08PM Friday September 21, 2018 5:32 AM EDT (09:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 2:32AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop late.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. NEar shore, seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swansboro, NC
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location: 34.59, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210747
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
347 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger across the eastern
carolinas through the weekend. A weak front will drop into the area
early next week. A stronger cold front will impact the area late in the
week with cooler and drier air.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 335 am Friday... Surface high pressure ridging south from
new england coupled with a strong mid-level ridge will lead to
another dry and pleasant day across eastern nc. Under sunny
skies, highs will reach the mid 80s in most areas, but dewpoints
will be in the pleasant 60s. This will set up another good day
for hurricane recovery activities across eastern nc.

A note: many thanks to the wakefield, virginia (akq) office for
backing us up for the past few days to allow our office to
recover from hurricane florence, conducting storm surveys and
allowing folks to get their damaged homes property in order. It
is very much appreciated by the mhx staff.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
As of 335 am Friday... The axis of the surface high pressure
ridge will gradually start to shift offshore tonight, but not
before providing another pleasant night. Skies will be mostly
clear inland with a few patchy clouds near the coast. Expect low
temperatures to drop into the mid upper 60s most areas, with
lower 70s over the outer banks.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
At this time, it appears that a stalled frontal boundary will
remain predominantly across W nc into va, keeping the bulk of
the strongest lift to the w. However, the influx of further
tropical moisture and weak troughing aloft could lead to a few
showers and thunderstorms Mon and Tue as diurnal conditions
will promote destabilization during the afternoon, with sfc
based CAPE values exceeding 1500j kg.

By mid week, will need to monitor progress of a very weak, non-
tropical atlantic wave, currently situated about 150 miles N of
bermuda as of the time of this writing. Conditions will remain
sheared for much of its life-cycle, but progs carry it slowly
sw, tapping more tropical moisture and then sliding it back
toward the coast by the middle of the week. Some ensemble
guidance shows pwats once again potentially exceeding 2.00 in,
which could introduce the risk for localized heavy rain. Still
plenty of uncertainty here, but something to watch.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 06z Saturday ...

as of 1 am Friday... MainlyVFR conditions are expected through
this TAF cycle. There could be a few patches of ground fog
toward morning, but believe it will be short-lived and will not
include in the tafs at this time.

Long term Friday through Monday ... MainlyVFR conditions into
Saturday. The risk for some sct shra tsra sun-tue with
localized MVFR ifr conditions.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 345 am Friday... With continuing northeasterly swells
pushing seas up to 6-7 feet early this morning, will continue
sca for the waters north of CAPE hatteras through 10z this
morning. Will need to extend the SCA if seas do not come down
in the next couple of hours. Winds have started to trend lower
and closer to 10 knots versus the 15 knots from earlier tonight.

Wave guidance also indicates the seas should trend down during
the mid to late morning hours. Latest local swan model does
indicate another round of increased swell energy late tonight,
but will cap seas at 5 feet for now over the central waters.

Long term Fri through Sun ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Light winds expected Friday and
Saturday with winds veering from onshore to offshore Friday
into Saturday generally less than 10 kts and seas generally 2 to
4 feet. Similar sub-small craft advisory conditions into sun.

Hydrology As of 345 am Friday... Major flooding continues
for inland rivers. Heed all local law enforcement instructions
and do not drive into flooded roadways.

Areal and river flood warnings continue farther inland and
south. Warnings here will persist as water upstream continues
to flow through rivers across eastern nc. The neuse, trent and
cape fear rivers will likely take the longest to fully
recede... With forecasts remaining well above flood stage through
the remainder of the week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
amz150-152.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Ctc sk
hydrology... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi32 min N 6 G 8 73°F 80°F1021.8 hPa (-0.5)
41064 30 mi24 min ENE 5.8 G 9.7 77°F
41159 30 mi32 min 82°F3 ft
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 37 mi32 min N 7 G 8.9 1021.4 hPa (-0.5)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 40 mi32 min N 7 G 8 73°F 83°F1021.6 hPa (-0.6)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 41 mi24 min N 9.7 G 14 76°F 81°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 41 mi32 min 80°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi24 min ENE 7.8 G 12 77°F 81°F
WLON7 46 mi32 min 71°F 78°F1021.3 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC14 mi36 minNNE 510.00 miFair67°F66°F97%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NW3N3N3N4N4N4NE3CalmCalmNE3N4N4N4N5NE8NE7NE7NE6------SE8
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.