Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:52PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:38 PM EDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:03AMMoonset 4:28PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 943 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 190152
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
952 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move into the area late tonight and stall
through the weekend. This front will move south of the area
early next week. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday.

Another cold front will approach the area in the middle of next
week.

Near term overnight
As 950 pm Friday... Latest sfc analysis shows 1001mb low over
southern quebec, with associated front draped through the mid-
atlantic and western nc, and weak sfc trough over central nc.

The front will continue to push E SE tonight and may push into
the northern tier early Sat morning. Latest radar imagery shows
broken line of showers and storms moving through SE va and
central nc. Some high res models show this activity pushing se
and making into the northern coastal plain and albemarle sound
region between 03-06z, while others shows convection dissipating
before reaching the cwa. Think bulk of precip will remain north
of the area. Expect most of the overnight to remain dry, with
best precip chances across the NW forecast area if precip is
able to hold together. Yet another very warm and muggy night
with lows in the 75-80 degrees.

Short term Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... An unstable conditions will continue
tomorrow with CAPE values ranging 3000-3500 j kg, LI -8 and pw
remaining above 2 inches. The cold front is progged to be over
eastern nc by morning and becoming stationary. This will lead to
good sfc convergence and result to more showers and
thunderstorms to develop late morning into the evening. Expect
highs near 90 degree inland and mid 80s along the coast.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... For the remainder of the weekend, a cold
front will move into the area Saturday night and Sunday but
quickly weaken and waver across the area. The best chance for
storms this weekend will be Saturday evening and with pwats
still above 2", locally heavy rain is possible. By Sunday much
drier air moves into the northern 2 3 of the area, with pwats
here dropping under 1.5". Continued low chance pops across the
southern portion of the area where lingering front or sea breeze
could interact with slightly higher moisture values.

Monday Tuesday... No big changes to this period of the forecast as a
cold front mentioned above washes out across our area. The biggest
impact from the front will be the much drier air, with pwats
mainly around 1.5 inches. This is a bit more moisture than in
previous forecast and carried a low chance of mainly diurnally
driven convection both days. Expect highs in the low 90s inland
to mid 80s along the beaches..

Wednesday Thursday... The next front will move into nc Wednesday,
and our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture will
increase ahead of the front through the period. Will maintain
the previous forecast of rain chances close to 50% during this
time with the passage of the front. Temps near 90 Wednesday will
slide back into the 80s Thursday with the passage of the front.

By Friday with the frontal passage through the area, expect much
drier and cooler weather. Lows Friday morning will dip into the
upper 60s to around 70 inland and highs Friday will be in the
lower 80s. Carried low chance pops for potential for widely
scattered afternoon convection on Friday should the front
linger in the area, but if trends hold, Friday could be a very
pleasant and dry day.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 620 pm Friday...VFR conditions currently with scattered
cu. Challenging forecast overnight regarding the fog and stratus
potential. Brief MVFR fog and stratus will be possible late
tonight and early Sat morning, with best chances at iso and pgv,
but have below normal confidence so will continue with a pred
vfr forecast. Think winds will stay up enough to limit
widespread fog development and guidance and forecast soundings
not showing the stratus potential like the past several nights.

Scattered showers and storms expected to develop again sat
afternoon, with best chances at ewn and oaj.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... SubVFR conditions possible Saturday
night with the passage of a cold front, with showers and
thunderstorms most likely . Shifting to coast during evening
hours. Beyond Saturday night, mainlyVFR weather expected
through mid week until the next front approaches Wednesday into
Wednesday night with a better chance of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 950 pm Friday... Latest obs show S SW 10-20 kt and seas
2-4 ft. Gradient will continue to tighten ahead of a cold front
tonight, and S SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt
will continue with seas building to 2-4 ft north of oregon
inlet and 3-5 ft south. Winds will relax a bit on Saturday sw
10-15 knots with seas subsiding 2-4 ft.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Quiet boating conditions continue on the
waters through early next week. Winds will be 10 kt or less and
waver direction as a front lingers and dissipates in the area
through the area through Monday night. Seas will run 1 to 3 feet
through that period. Winds become southerly and begin to
increase Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will be
around 15 kt Tuesday night and increase to 15 to 20 kt Wednesday
with seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bm
near term... Cqd bm
short term... Bm
long term... Rsb
aviation... Rsb cqd
marine... Rsb cqd bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi51 min SW 8 G 17 84°F 82°F1013.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi39 min SW 11 G 14 83°F 1013.6 hPa (+1.5)
41159 33 mi56 min 84°F4 ft
41064 33 mi91 min SW 18 G 21 82°F 84°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC1 mi42 minSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds79°F0°F%1014.1 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi45 minSSW 1010.00 miFair82°F79°F90%1013.4 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi1.7 hrsSSW 15 G 2310.00 miFair83°F82°F97%1013.3 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi43 minSSW 610.00 miFair82°F79°F90%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S7S7SW7SW6SW7SW5SW9SW8SW9SW9SW9SW12SW13
G23
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G19
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1 day agoS4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSE5SE5SE7SE6S7SE8S9S10S11S7S8
G16
S7S6S6S7S6
2 days agoW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N4N6N8NE6N5N44CalmN7NE8SE6SE6S5S4S4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Fri -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:49 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:54 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.71.21.722.11.91.50.90.4-0-0.100.51.21.92.52.92.92.621.30.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:23 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.10.10.30.60.91.11.21.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-00.20.511.41.61.61.51.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.