Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday September 23, 2018 9:23 PM EDT (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:40PMMoonset 4:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 700 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Isolated showers late.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers with isolated tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers with isolated tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 232300
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
700 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will drift south of the region tonight and
gradually dissipate. Weak low pressure is expected to lift
north near the coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stronger cold
front will approach from the west late next week though remain
north and west of the area.

Near term rest of tonight
As of 7 pm sun... Iso showers have all but dissipated with loss
of heating this eve. Continued the trend of a few showers
advecting eastward off the atlantic ESP late tonight with light
onshore flow and inc moisture in the low lvls.

Previous discussion... As of 230 pm Sunday... Some isold shra
will cont this aftn due to weak instab... They shld diminish by
this evening. Overnight mdls again indicate some threat for a
few showers moving onshore coast so cont low pop these areas.

Inland areas will likely see better chc for some fog and status
as light NE flow develops. Lows 65 to 70 inland and 70 to 75
beaches.

Short term Monday
As of 230 pm Sunday... Threat for some low clouds and fog inland
early that may be slow to erode given weak mixing. Expect
another round of wdly sct to sct shra and poss a storm late morn
into the aftn as some instab develops with moist onshore flow.

Shld see enuf Sun for highs mainly 80 to 85.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 4 am Sunday... Predominantly E SE flow across the area
thru Tuesday with high pressure sliding off the new england
coast while continuing to ridge SW into the piedmont and a weak
area of low pressure or open trough moving westward beneath the
high towards the southeast coast Tuesday. Sufficient moisture,
instability and shear will be present to bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to the region, especially through peak
heating, though expect most storms to remain below severe
limits. Coastal sections will see the best chances of precip
Tuesday with the low or trough in the vicinity. High Monday
expected in the low to mid 80s once again, but low level
thicknesses begin to increase Tuesday with highs expected to
generally be in the mid 80s, except low 80s coast.

High pressure will be centered off the SE coast Wednesday and
Thursday with SW flow continuing to bringing a warm, moist and
unstable airmass across the region with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. Best chance of precip will come Thursday
with increase SW flow aloft ahead of a digging longwave trough
across the central CONUS and an embedded shortwave progged to
lift across the southeast. Low level thicknesses support high in
the mid to upper 80s Wednesday but drop some Thursday with highs
mainly in the mid 80s.

A cold front approaches from the NW Friday and is currently
progged to push through the area Friday night. Continued moist
and unstable airmass ahead of the front will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area. 0-6km bulk shear is
expected to increase to around 30-40 kt and could see stronger
storms develop. Highs Friday expected in the mid 80s. A more
stable airmass moves in behind the front but could see an
isolated shower during the day Saturday. Temps will be cooler
with highs mainly in the lower 80s with dewpoints dropping into
the 60s.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 7 pm Sunday... Big deck of low stratus formed last night
to the NW of area and bulk of guidance suggests this low stratus
may develop further E into ERN nc late tonight. With light ne
flow developing looks favorable for some low CIGS so have ifr
cigs and some fog developing late... Similar to prev fcst. Based
on peristence from last night, most likely areas to receive the
fog would be koaj and kewn. If fog stratus does form make take
good part of morning for it to slowly lift thru MVFR toVFR by
aftn with again wdly sct shra tsra poss mon.

Long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 420 am Sunday... PredVFR conditions expected much of the
period though patchy late night early morning fog possible each
morning. Also could see isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms through the period, especially through peak
heating each day. Thursday will have the best chance of showers
and thunderstorms at the terminals with shortwave energy lifting
across the area.

Marine
Short term tonight and Monday ...

as of 230 pm Sunday... Light mainly E winds tonight between high
pres to the N and weak low pres well to the se. Gradient
tightens a bit Mon as the low drifts W closer to the E coast
with E winds increasing to 10 to 20 kts. Seas of 2 to 4 feet
tonight will build to 3 to 5 feet mon.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 230 pm Sunday... Issued SCA for coastal waters starting
mon night as long fetch of onshore winds builds seas to 6+ ft.

Prev disc... High pressure slides off the new england coast
Monday and Tuesday while continuing to ridge into the region and
expect E winds around 10-20 kt Monday, trending to the se
Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure or open trough moves
westward toward the southeast coast. With a prolonged fetch of e
winds, seas are expected to build during the first half of the
week, though models have backed off from previous runs. Seas
expected to build to 5-7 ft northern central waters and 3-6 ft
southern waters Monday night into Tuesday.

The trough dissipates Tuesday night with high pressure
strengthening off the southeast coast bringing S to SW winds
around 5-15 kt Wednesday and Thursday. Seas expected to slowly
subside to around 3-5 ft north and 2-4 ft south by Wednesday
afternoon and continuing through Thursday.

Hydrology
As of 230 pm Sunday... Rivers have all crested and will cont to
see levels grad drop next several days. Still have major to
moderate flooding over the southern portion of the area. Heed
all local law enforcement instructions and do not drive into
flooded roadways.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 pm Monday to 2 pm edt Wednesday
for amz150-152-154.

Small craft advisory from 5 am Tuesday to 4 am edt Wednesday
for amz156.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 2 pm edt Tuesday for amz158.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf tl
short term... Rf
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk tl
marine... Rf sk
hydrology... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi35 min E 5.1 G 6 79°F 82°F1020 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi83 min E 9.9 G 11 1019.2 hPa (+0.8)
41159 33 mi53 min 82°F3 ft
41064 33 mi75 min E 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 82°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi3.5 hrsESE 57.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F71°F69%1018.1 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi27 minSSE 310.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.