Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:58PM Monday December 10, 2018 6:44 PM EST (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 300 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Rain, mainly this evening.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Fri..S winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers likely.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 102003
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
303 pm est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeast away from the area through
Tuesday. High pressure will build over the region Tuesday night
through Thursday. Another strong storm system will affect the
area Friday into Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 pm mon... The widespread rain plaguing E nc is tapering
off to sct showers and drizzle this afternoon. With upr low
slowly migrating east through the area overnight, expect ocnl
rain, possibly mixing with and changing to some snow along and
west of hwy 17. Little if any accum expected with temps just
above freezing. The trough and low pres offshore will move away
later tonight ending threat for any precip after around
midnight. Cold temps falling to just below freezing could lead
to patch black ice inland, ESP on bridges and overpasses. Lows
range from the upr 20s well inland to mid 30s coast.

Short term Tuesday
As of 3 pm mon... Clouds will quickly scour out as high pres
builds into the area. Pleasant conditions expected with light
wnw winds with highs around 50 across SRN zones to mid 40s to
the N and ne.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 2 pm Monday... High pressure will build in from the north
and east through midweek before another strong storm system
starts to approach from the west late Thursday night into the
early part of the weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Dry conditions with below
normal temperatures will prevail through Tuesday night into
Thursday as high pressure ridges down from the north and
northeast. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s to mid
30s, ranging to the lower 40s outer banks.

Thursday night through Saturday night... Another dynamic and
strong storm system will move east for the end of the week. Gfs
and european now in better agreement concerning the placement
of what will be a cutoff mid-level low moving across the deep
south with the GFS then trending a faster and a bit to the north
toward the mid-atlantic by Sunday. The primary concern with this
system from the current guidance cycle is the threat of heavy
rainfall, as a consensus of the gfs ECMWF shows 2-4 inches of
rain. With already swollen creeks and rivers, this could cause
additional flooding of low-lying areas. Strong gusty SE S winds
will also be likely with this system. It is too early to
determine the extent of the convective threat, as surface-based
cape values are only forecast to be around 300-500 j kg, but
shear should be decent with low-level SE flow. Ahead of this
system, temperatures will finally warm into the 60s for Friday
in the gusty S SE flow before falling back into the 50s Saturday
with widespread clouds rain.

Sunday through Monday... High pressure will again build in from
the west northwest Sunday into Monday with a drying trend. The
air behind this system will be more of a pacific airmass, so
temperatures will not be appreciably cooler with highs generally
50s and lows in the 30s, close to seasonal normals.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 111 pm mon... Expect mainly ifr for TAF sites kewn and
koaj. Conditions improving to MVFR later this afternoon for kiso
and kpgv. May see some -sn mix in with the ra later this
afternoon for pgv and iso. No impacts expected on the ground as
temps above freezing. Deeper moisture will begin to grad shift e
this evening with precip tapering off and ending as CIGS rise
to MVFR by morning even for eastern sites.

Long term Tue night through Saturday ...

as of 2 pm Monday...VFR conditions should prevail through
midweek with high pressure building in from the north and
northeast. Showers become widespread Friday afternoon into
Saturday, with periods of sub-vfr conditions likely. Gusty SE s
winds will also accompany the front Friday night and Saturday.

Marine
Short term tonight and Tuesday ...

as of 3 pm mon... Slowly improving winds on the waters and sounds
as low pres slowly moves away and high pres builds in. Gales
will subside to SCA conditions from W to E across the marine
domain. Seas will remain high through Tue due to the lingering
swell energy.

Long term Tue night through Sat ...

as of 2 pm Monday... Gusty winds and elevated seas will gradually
drop Tuesday night and Wednesday, finally going below SCA levels
by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north
and northeast. Winds will veer to E SE at 5-15 knots for
Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty SE S winds increase to
20-30 knots with gusts to near gale force likely Friday into
Saturday as seas rebuild to as high as 10-12 feet by Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 3 pm mon... The prolonged period of gusty nne winds will
cont to produce minor coastal flooding, rough surf and beach
erosion. Minor coastal flooding, with water level rises 1-2 ft
above ground expected. This will some water rises for ocean
side dare north of hatteras, and downeast carteret through
craven pamlico counties. Coastal flood advisories continue for
soundside hatteras isl and ocracoke. Conditions will improve
late tonight as winds continue to diminish.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for ncz103-104.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for ncz093>095-
103-104.

High surf advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz136-
137.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for amz135-150-156-
158.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Tuesday for amz130-131.

Gale warning until 5 am est Tuesday for amz152-154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl
short term... Tl
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc tl
marine... Ctc tl
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi50 min N 16 G 21 41°F 51°F1017.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi44 min N 22 G 28 1016.4 hPa (+1.8)
41159 33 mi44 min 69°F9 ft
41064 33 mi36 min ENE 23 G 31 51°F 69°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC1 mi1.8 hrsN 6 G 18 miOvercast41°F37°F89%1017 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi50 minNNE 13 G 222.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1017.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi1.8 hrsN 1310.00 miOvercast41°F39°F93%1016.6 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi48 minN 115.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F36°F89%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE9NE6NE7NE9NE10NE14NE13NE13NE11
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2 days agoN3N3CalmCalmNE4NE5NE5NE4N3NE5NE5NE4----NE5NE6NE7N7NE6NE6NE6--N4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Mon -- 02:56 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:20 AM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:48 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:42 PM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.50.100.20.61.11.72.22.42.32.11.610.50.20.10.30.71.11.61.91.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:25 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:27 AM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:49 PM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.70.40.2000.20.50.91.21.41.41.210.70.40.20.10.10.30.60.91.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.