Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:00 AM EDT (13:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 646 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft this afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201125
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
725 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
The region will remain between high pressure well offshore and
low pressure system to the north of the area through tonight as
a cold front pushes through the eastern nc Friday morning. More
settled weather returns later Friday and into the weekend,
before more possible unsettled weather returns to start the work
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 700 am thurs... The latest sfc analysis continues to
show the low pressure system over the midwest region, while
high pressure extends over the area from the western atlantic.

The low pressure system over the midwest will move into the new
england area, while a cold front approaches the area from the
west. Aloft, a significant shortwave with a vort MAX at the
based of the trof will move across eastern nc this afternoon.

Ahead of the cold front, strong SW winds under mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies will leading to humid and hot temps leading to
very unstable atmospheric conditions. Models are showing mucape
around 2000 j kg and reaching as high as 3500 j kg in some
locations, while LI is AOA -7c, meanwhile shear is increasing
to 40-50 kts later today. All this combined will lead to strong
to severe thunderstorms, and SPC has included most of the area
in a slight risk with parts of our coastal plains in enhanced
risk. The best time for thunderstorms to develop will be late
this afternoon to early early evening with the main threat of
damaging winds and possible hail, but cannot rule out an
isolated tornado.

Expect highs in the the mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to
low 90s closer to the coast. With dewpoints in the mid 70s (even
some upper 70s along the coast), heat indices are expected to
range from 100-105 in the afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
As of 245 am thurs... Strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to continue through tonight with the main threat to be
damaging winds and possible hail. Storms are expected to weaken
or move offshore after midnight. Expect low temps in the low to
mid 70s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 315 am Thursday... A brief period of quiet weather is
expected behind the passing front Friday and Saturday as weak
high pressure ridges in from the north. Moisture creeps back
into the area by Sunday with mid-level ridging overhead. Low
chances of showers and thunderstorms are possible through mid
week.

Friday and Saturday... The front and mid-level energy are
forecast to be offshore Friday morning with weak high pressure
ridges in from the north and drier air advects into the region
with heights rising behind the shortwave. Highs will be slightly
lower than Thursday with most areas just a degree or two on
either side of climatological norms. With lower dewpoints lows
Friday evening should be able to drop below 70 for most inland
locations.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Difficult forecast follows to
start the week in regards to precip chances. Southerly flow and
increasing moisture advection is forecast late Saturday into
Sunday as the high reestablishes itself offshore. Isolated to
widely scattered convection is likely along the seabreeze each
afternoon. There are two disturbances that could flatten the
ridge and lead to slightly better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, namely:
1. A convective system forecast to develop over the central
plains and ride the ridge into north carolina from the
northwest, likely Saturday night into Sunday. With the high to
our northeast the better instability will be to our west, but it
is possible the coastal plain could destabilize enough to see
some convection.

2. A shortwave is forecast to lift across the central u.S.

During the beginning of the week, although its timing and
degree it will flatten the ridge is in question due to large
model spread.

The presence of the ridge, and the low confidence in the timing
and placement of these impulses, precludes any pops higher than
30% through Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday look to be the
warmest days with the ridge overhead with highs approaching the
mid 90s both days. Combined with oppressive dewpoints in the low
70s, heat indices will once again near 100 during this period.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tomorrow afternoon ...

as of 220 am thurs... A mix ofVFR and MVFR conditions is
occurring across enc this morning. Low level stratus developed
across kewn koaj kiso and is expected to erode away by 13z to
14z... Leading toVFR conditions for most of the day with gusty
sw winds. A significant disturbance will move across enc with a cold
front approaching the area... Leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms AOA 21z and continue through late
tonight. Some storms may brings gusty winds and heavy rain that
can lead to brief MVFR to ifr. Conditions will improve back to
vfr AOA midnight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 330 am Thursday... PredominantlyVFR conditions expected
Friday and Saturday with dry air filtering in behind the front.

A return to more unsettled weather Sunday and Monday translate
to chances for sub-vfr conditions in showers and thunderstorms.

Early morning fog stratus is possible in areas that receive
daytime rainfall.

Marine
Short term through today ...

as of 700 am thurs... The latest buoy observations are showing
sw 15-20 kts and seas 2-4 ft north of diamond shoals and 5-6 ft
south. The SCA over the sounds have expired and reissued a new
sca for the pamlico, croatan and roanoke sounds for this
afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. The gradient has
weaken this morning 15 to 20 kt, before winds increase back to
20-25 kts with gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon. Seas will
continue to build today and peak 5 to 8 ft across the coastal
waters. SCA is in effect from oregon inlet to surf city, then
sca GOES into effect for the north waters and sounds this
afternoon.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 340 am Thursday... Westerly winds of around 15-20 knots
behind a passing cold front will quickly diminish to 10-15 knots
as weak high pressure builds in from the north, eventually
becoming N at 10 knots or less Saturday. As high shifts offshore
winds are forecast to become S SW at around 10-15 knots, with
the highest winds in the afternoon with increasing thermal
gradients.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196-
204-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt
this evening for amz231.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for amz154-156-158.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Friday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Friday for amz152.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Ms
aviation... Bm ms
marine... Bm ms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi43 min WSW 8 G 12 81°F 82°F1009.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi61 min WSW 9.9 G 15 80°F 1008.9 hPa (+0.9)76°F
41064 33 mi53 min W 18 G 23 80°F 79°F1009 hPa
41159 33 mi31 min 79°F6 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC1 mi64 minWSW 1110.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1009.3 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi67 minSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds81°F73°F77%1008.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi63 minWSW 910.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1008.7 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi65 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Thu -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:34 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:49 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.50.90.40.10.10.30.81.31.7221.81.40.90.50.20.20.50.91.522.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:41 PM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.20.90.60.30.100.10.30.70.91.11.21.10.90.60.30.20.10.20.40.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.