Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Knoll Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:28PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1010 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft...except around 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...increasing to choppy late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. NEar shore seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft...except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds... Decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms in the evening...then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming n. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop...diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC
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location: 34.69, -76.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 291406
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1006 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region early this morning with high
pressure building in from the north later today through
Thursday. A warm front will move through from the southwest
Friday. A cold front will move through early Saturday. Another
cold front will approach the area early next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 10 am wed... The cold front has pushed through the forecast
area, with northeast winds throughout. Stratocu deck along and
east of 17 will pass through this morning. Forecast still looks
on track, so no changes needed.

High pressure builds in from the north this afternoon with the
clouds gradually dissipating. Northerly flow will bring a large
spread in temps today with highs around 60s across the obx to
mid 70s SW sections.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
As of 3 am Wednesday... High pressure continues to ridge in from
the north tonight with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and
light north to northeast winds. Min temps expected in the mid to
upper 40s region wide.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
As of 340 am Wednesday... Unsettled weather will continue through
most of the extended period with heavy rainfall possible Friday
and again early next week.

Thursday and Thursday night... Ridging at the surface and mid-
levels will bring dry and slightly cooler conditions to the
region for Thursday. There will be decent thermal gradient
across our region with highs in the lower 50s over the northern
outer banks ranging to the mid/upper 60s over the southern cwa.

High clouds will increase from the west through the day with a
few showers starting to approach from the west by late Thursday
night as closed upper low starts to move east from the ohio
valley.

Friday and Friday night... Good agreement in the global models
showing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms for Friday
into Friday night. Deep mid-level trough will take on a negative
tilt during the day Friday with strong low-level wind fields and
wind shear. The main question will be the degree of instability
Friday afternoon... As the GFS (cape 1500 j/kg, LI -5) is quite a
bit more unstable than is the ECMWF at the same time (cape 500
j/kg, LI -2). A deep plume of moisture will be tapped from the
gulf of mexico, so regardless of the severe weather threat... The
setup looks favorable for periods of heavy rain with total qpf
of 1 to 1.5 inches Friday afternoon into Friday night. Highs
Friday range from the mid 60s outer banks to mid 70s
southwestern cwa. SPC does have the region in a marginal threat
of severe weather Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday through Sunday... With the axis of the mid-level trough
moving offshore... A nice weekend will be in store for eastern
nc. Temperatures should be seasonable with highs in the low 70s
inland and mid 60s outer banks with nighttime lows in the 50s.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Another in a series of strong
upper-level systems will start to approach from the west for
early next week. The closed 500 mb low will move from texas to
the tennessee valley by Tuesday morning. Deep moisture will
again increase with a good chance of showers and possible
thunderstorms Monday evening into Tuesday. With another good
feed of gulf moisture to accompany this system... Model qpf
totals are again an inch or better with this system.

Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 7 am Wednesday... A cold front is pushing through the
region presently and winds will become northerly around 10kt
gusting to 15 kt late this morning and afternoon. Most of the
fog has dissipated while an ifr/MVFR status deck is moving in
from the ne. CIGS expected to mainly be east of highway 17 with
ewn most likely to be impacted this morning. May see brief cigs
at the other terminals this morning as well. Clouds will
scatter out this afternoon withVFR conditions returning through
the rest of the short term.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...

as of 350 am Wednesday...VFR conditions should prevail Thursday
with surface and mid-level ridging in place. Widespread showers
and possible thunderstorms arrive early Friday and continue into
Friday night. MVFR and possible ifr ceilings and vsbys will be
quite likely as some locally heavy rainfall totals are possible
along with gusty winds. As the upper trough axis moves
offshore... Good flying weather is expected for the weekend with
high pressure impacting our weather andVFR conditions likely.

Marine
Short term /today and tonight/...

as of 10 am wed... Cold front has pushed south of the area. North
to northeast winds across the marine zones at 15-20 knots with
a few higher gusts which will continue into this evening.

Current zones look in good shape. No changes needed.

Winds expected to decrease to 5-15kt after midnight. Continue
to see swells from low pressure east of bermudas impact the
coastal waters with seas around 4-6 ft across the central and
southern waters. Seas currently around 2-4 ft across the
northern waters but are expected to increase to 4-6 ft late this
morning into the early evening in response to the northerly
surge and will raise a SCA north of oregon inlet with the
morning package.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...

as of 350 am Wednesday... After a lull in the marine conditions
for Thursday... Latest local swan/nwps and wavewatch models shows
seas will increase from the southwest starting early Friday in
response to gusty SW winds developing ahead of strong cold
front/mid-level closed low. Seas peak at around 8-9 feet Friday
night. Seas should remain elevated through late Saturday with
sca conditions expected before subsiding Saturday night and
Sunday as weak high pressure builds east across the coastal
waters.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for amz150.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Hsa/sk
short term... Sk
long term... Ctc
aviation... Ctc/sk
marine... Hsa/sk/ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 7 mi53 min NE 11 G 17 60°F 62°F1017.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 15 mi71 min NNE 19 G 24 58°F 1018.1 hPa (+2.1)
41159 34 mi28 min 64°F5 ft
41064 34 mi63 min ENE 16 G 21 60°F 1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC8 mi73 minNE 11 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F55°F76%1018.5 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi17 minENE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F54°F65%1018.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi74 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast66°F55°F70%1019 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S10S12SW12SW12SW8W10
G19
S10SW5NW6W3NW5NW4NW5NW5NW6N3N4NE6NE12NE12N13
G20
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1 day agoS9S10S8S10S7S6S6S7S6S6S7S7S8S8S7SW7SW6S5SW6SW10SW10SW11SW9W5
2 days agoSE8SE7SE11
G17
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G15
SE5SE7SE6SE5SE5SE3S3SE4W7CalmCalmCalmCalmW5W7SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:37 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:19 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:48 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:44 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.20.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.30.81.21.41.41.10.80.40-0.2-0.3-0.10.20.71.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina
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Fort Macon
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:16 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:25 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:29 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:46 PM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.90.8-0-0.4-0.30.31.32.33.23.73.63.12.11.10.2-0.4-0.30.21.12.23.23.943.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.