Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:21 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 117 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Fri night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 117 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front will impact the area late in the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 290535 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 135 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front will impact the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 2200 Sunday...Typical cold spots in Duplin Co have decoupled and their temps have dropped, prompting minor adjustments. I didn't go full decouple everywhere for the rest of the night as winds are expected to mix in and out through the overnight. This does however increase the chance of fog development over SWern portions of the FA, so have added patchy fog to the forecast for these areas.

Previous disco as of 400 PM Sun...Very quiet weather persists across eastern NC, which remains centered underneath a broad upper level ridge and Atlantic high pressure anchored to the east. Thick deck of strato-cu to our west is beginning to break up as drier air works its way into the picture, but it has been enough to keep temperatures suppressed in the mid 70s while north of Highway 64 upper 70s to low 80s prevail.

Little change in this pattern is expected through the short term. Southwesterly winds will diminish but not quite decouple tonight as weak front to our north keeps the gradient pinched.
Combined with ever-increasing low-level thicknesses, lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last - mid to upper 50s inland, around 60 along the coast. If any areas do decouple, it will be likely along the coast south of Highway 70. Combined with clear skies, some low (10% chance) potential exists for patchy fog to develop early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
As of 400 PM Sun...Ridge and surface high will move little tomorrow, remaining the dominant weather features. Column will be noticeably drier than yesterday as PWATs hit a minimum of under an inch, and expect little if any cloud cover through the day apart from some thin cirri. With full insolation and higher low-level thicknesses, temperatures will rise around another 5 degrees. Widespread low to mid-80s expected inland, except 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to approach from the west.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on Wednesday, and now looks to cross the area around peak heating. Higher confidence of shower and thunderstorm development is beginning to take shape and have increased PoPs during the afternoon to around 50%. Still, any severe threat looks to be minimal with little to no shear present. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the western counties. Despite this moving through the area, temperatures will remain high during this time topping out in the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms (25-40%) by Saturday afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

The next 6-12 hours are expected to be very similar to this time 24 hrs ago. Conditions still do not appear conducive to widespread, impactful FG, but MIFG and the accompanying drop in VIS will be possible (40-60% chance). On Monday, it looks like another seabreeze forecast, with winds increasing some as the seabreeze passes. Late Monday night, continued low-level moisture advection may support a risk of low stratus clouds and/or BR/FG, but the best chance looks to hold off until after the current 06z TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions through next week, with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 400 PM Sun...Benign marine conditions in place for area waters this afternoon as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Regional observations show broad southwesterly flow of 10-15 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. Guidance continues to hint at a localized surge of 15-20 kt with some infrequent gusts to 25 kt for the northern waters and Pamlico Sound with the tightening thermal gradient, but this will be too brief to warrant any headlines.

Weather pattern changes little tomorrow with predominantly southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt expected through Monday. Like today, there will likely be a thermal gradient tomorrow resulting in 15-20 kt winds across the northern waters and sounds, with a risk of infrequent 25 kt gusts. Seas remain at 3-4 feet through the period.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Spooner Creek
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Sun -- 12:59 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:27 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
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Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

Fort Macon
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Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:24 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:17 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:44 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Macon, USCG Station, North Carolina, Tide feet

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