Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 7:45 AM   Moonset 11:13 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 231 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late this evening, then becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and ne 2 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight, then increasing to choppy late. Sun - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds, becoming S 7 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 231 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A mostly dry cold front will move through eastern nc overnight. High pressure then builds in from the west tomorrow through Monday night. Then, a low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 111826 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 226 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A mostly dry cold front will move through Eastern NC overnight.
High pressure then builds in from the west tomorrow through Monday night. Then, a low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM Sat...Pleasant but brisk conditions will continue this afternoon with cool northerly flow and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect some more clearing across the coastal plain this afternoon as the low levels begin to dry out, and this should allow for temps to rise from their current readings in the 60s to the low 70s. Closer to the coast patches of clouds will continue to stream down from the north and keep highs close to current readings in the mid to upper 60s.

Skies will become mostly clear this evening, but an approaching cold front will bring clouds back into the area from NW to SE overnight. The front will be fairly moisture starved with just a modest area of saturation present in the mid levels, but still some isolated showers will be possible as it moves across the forecast area overnight, with areas across the northern coastal plain having the best chance of seeing any light precip. Despite the cooler airmass, clouds and wind will keep temps from falling too drastically, and have lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 230 PM Sat...Breezy but warmer conditions expected tomorrow behind the cold front as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Rebounding low level heights as well as downsloping westerly flow will help highs reach the mid to upper 70s across ENC, with a few 80 readings possible south of US 70.

The combination of warm temps, a dry airmass, and breezy conditions could contribute to some elevated fire weather potential tomorrow afternoon, but the recent rains yesterday as well as only marginal expected conditions should limit the threat.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 3 PM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.

Sunday Night through Monday night...High pressure will become centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night then will migrate offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft. Temps will be seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points will be much below normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in better agreement with another southern stream system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Afternoon/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow as the low levels remain dry. That being said a mostly dry cold front will push through the airspace tonight, and bring with it some 4000-6000 ft ceilings and some isolated showers.
Skies will clear tomorrow morning with VFR conditions continuing.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of3 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Monday as high pressure builds across the region. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Improving conditions will continue through tomorrow though it will still remain breezy. SCAs remain for the central and northern waters through this evening due to lingering seas, while headlines are gone for all other zones.

Winds this afternoon will steadily decrease out of the north at 5-15 kts, and then veer quickly around to the south this evening at 10 kts or less ahead of a cold front. The front will push through the forecast area early tomorrow morning with winds turning to the WNW behind it at 10-20 kts, and some brief gusts to 25 kts will be possible. WNW to NW winds then continue tomorrow at around 15-20 kts.

Seas will be 4-6 ft through this evening, and drop to 3-5 ft overnight and through most of tomorrow. Some 6 ft seas could briefly creep into the central zones tomorrow morning in response to the uptick in winds.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

A backdoor front will push through Sunday night with easterly winds around 15 kt or less developing Monday with seas around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 152-154.

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Atlantic Beach
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Sat -- 04:31 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:25 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
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Harkers Island Bridge
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Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
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Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
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