Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Casmalia, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:55PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 3:06 AM PST (11:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:16PMMoonset 2:36AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 210 Am Pst Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 14 to 16 ft dominant period 17 seconds, subsiding to 12 to 14 ft dominant period 16 seconds in the afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 12 to 14 ft dominant period 16 seconds, subsiding to 10 to 13 ft dominant period 15 seconds after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 25 kt. Strongest northwestern portion. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft dominant period 15 seconds, subsiding to 10 to 11 ft dominant period 14 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 10 to 12 ft at 18 seconds, building to 12 to 14 ft at 18 seconds after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 12 to 14 ft at 17 seconds, subsiding to 11 to 12 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 9 to 11 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft.
PZZ600 210 Am Pst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 1 am pst, a 962 mb low was located 600 nm nw of seattle with a cold front extending south well off the northern ca coast. A 1032 mb high was over colorado, and a 1027 mb high was 450 nm sw of point conception. A very large northwest to westerly swell will affect the coastal waters through Wed, with potentially dangerous conditions for W to nw facing harbor entrances through early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casmalia, CA
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location: 34.7, -121.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 181055
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
255 am pst Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis 18 151 am.

High pressure aloft will build in over the region the next
several days. A warming and drying trend will develop through
Thursday with temperatures warming to above seasonal levels from
Wednesday to Friday. A cool down is likely Friday, becoming more
pronounced over the weekend.

Short term (tdy-thu) 18 150 am.

Latest fog product imagery indicated patchy low clouds across
interior slo county, santa ynez valley, as well as portions of
l.A. And ventura county coastal and valleys. There is still plenty
of lingering low level moisture hanging around portions of the
forecast area this morning. However, skies will start to dry out
a bit through this afternoon. There will be enough moisture in
the atmosphere to drum up some flat cumulus around the foothills
today and low clouds should continue to bank up against the
northern slopes of the sba vtu county mountains due to the
northerly low level flow. Not anticipating anymore light showers
across the region this morning, but would not be surprised if a
spritz or two occurred across southern l.A. County this morning.

There will be some patchy dense fog developing across some coast
and valley locations due to the moist ground and radiational
cooling with light winds across the region. Some patchy dense fog
was already developing across portions of the ventura county coast
and santa ynez valley this morning.

Synoptically, a 590 dm upper high west of baja ca will begin to
nudge closer to southern cal over the next few days as the upper
low that brought light rain to the region will move into texas
today. The combination of the upper ridge building overhead, and a
northerly surface gradient setting up late this afternoon or
evening, will bring gusty sub-advisory northerly winds across the
i-5 corridor and likely spread south across santa clarita and san
fernando valley this evening. A sub-advisory sundowner will set up
as well this evening across the western portion of the sba south
coast, mainly between refugio and gaviota this evening. Winds
should begin to diminish across the sba south coast by midnight.

The northerly winds across l.A. County will begin to shift to the
northeast as a weak offshore gradient sets up between northern
nevada and so cal. At this time not expecting advisory level santa
ana winds Wednesday morning, but there could be a few local gusts
to 35 mph in the usual wind prone valleys of l.A. And ventura
counties, and between 40 and 45 mph for the mountains. Winds will
remain weakly offshore Wednesday into Thursday. Offshore winds
should remain fairly weak Thursday morning as there will be less
cold air advection from the high desert.

As for temperatures go, a warming trend is expected through
Thursday with high pressure building aloft and offshore flow
through the period, especially for coast and coastal valleys.

High temps will be around normal for most areas, while Wed thu
will be several degrees warmer. It will be slightly cooler across
the interior areas such as interior slo county and the antelope
valley. The central coast will see some additional warming due to
the offshore winds from the san lucia mtns. Except by Thursday,
the seabreeze should kick in earlier making it cooler than
wednesay. There will continue to be periods of high clouds over
the forecast area today and once again on Thursday. The warmest
temps across l.A. And ventura coast and valleys will be on
Thursday with some valley locations reaching the lower 80s, and
possibly a few coastal sites.

Long term (fri-mon) 18 254 am.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement through Saturday
before becoming out of phase Sunday through Monday. On Friday, the
upper ridge will begin to breakdown as a weak upper trough moves
across california. Onshore flow will replace offshore flow from
Thursday. A cold front will fizzle out before it reaches the
northern portion of the forecast area Friday. Expect increasing
clouds and the start of a cooling trend. High temps will cool 3 to
8 degrees on Friday with highs still a few degrees above normal
across l.A. Ventura counties. Not much change for Saturday.

By Sunday the ec is advertising a weak upper disturbance moving
through the area, while the GFS has a weak ridge ahead of the next
upper trough. So GFS is showing a slight warming trend while the
ec is cooling slightly with a chance of rain. By Tuesday (xmas
day), the ec starts going in a different direction at that point
leading to low confidence as it's advertising a much deeper and
farther west upper low than the more "insider slider-ish" system
the GFS has. At the least there should be some cooling Tuesday
with cloudy conditions and a slight chance of showers. High temps
should be a bit cooler than normal for the time of year.

Aviation 18 0216z.

At 00z, there was a moist layer up to around 4300 feet.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence in
timing, less confidence in categories.

South of point conception, there is a chance of MVFR conditions
at terminals south of point conception through 07z. There is a
slight chance of ifr conditions at ventura and los angeles county
terminals through 06z.

North of point conception,VFR conditions are expected through at
least 10z, then there is a chance of lifr conditions through 16z.

Klax... There is a 50 percent chance of MVFR conditions and a 20
percent chance of ifr conditions through 06z. Any east winds
should remain less than 5 knots.

Kbur... There is a 40 percent chance of MVFR conditions and a 10
percent chance of ifr conditions through 06z. There is a 20
percent chance of cross winds greater 10 knots.

Marine 18 203 am.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. A very large
wnw swell will continue to move through the coastal waters
through today. This swell will affect west to northwest facing
harbors, including morro bay, where dangerous breaking waves will
be possible in the harbor entrance. Ventura harbor could also be
affected through at least today as some of the energy from the
swell filters into the southern california bight. In addition,
breaking waves will be possible in shallower water areas outside
the typical surf zone. Moderate-to-high seas will then persist
Wednesday through Thursday.

Small craft advisory (sca) winds will affect the southern outer
waters zones (pzz673 and pzz676) through tonight or Wednesday.

Another round of SCA winds will be possible for the entire outer
waters Friday and Saturday, with a 50%-60% chance of this
occurring.

For the inner waters, winds are expected to remain below sca
levels through Saturday.

Beaches 18 210 am.

A very large long period west-northwest swell (290 degrees) will
continue to impact the central coast with very large and
potentially damaging surf to the area beaches this morning. As a
result, a high surf warning remains in effect for the central
coast through 9 am. Surf heights of 16 to 22 feet are expected
across the central coast this morning, with local sets up to 25
feet possible, then slowly subside the rest of today through mid
week before another large west northwest swell moves into the
area for later in the week. High surf advisories are likely to be
needed for several days once the high surf warning expires.

A coastal flood advisory remains in effect on the central coast,
to coincide with the timing of the high surf warning. Water could
spill into normally dry beaches, beach parking lots and harbor
walkways. Potential impacts will include beach erosion, very
strong, frequent rip currents and sneaker waves, with possible
damage to piers and coastal structures. In addition there is a
risk of large breaking waves across the morro bay harbor entrance,
which could capsize small boats.

Some of this large swell energy has affected areas south of point
conception, impacting west-facing beaches of la, ventura, and
southern sba counties. High surf advisories remain in effect for
this area through 10 pm pst this evening, where west-facing
beaches will generally see 6 to 12 foot breakers, with the highest
surf for the ventura county coast. Local sets to 15 feet will
likely continue across ventura harbor as well. Surf of 5 to 8 feet
is expected for the santa barbara south coast, highest on beaches
that have some west exposure, such as rincon point.

High surf could continue at least through Wednesday morning for
all areas.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf warning in effect until 9 am pst this morning for
zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Coastal flood advisory in effect until 9 am pst this morning
for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening for
zones 39>41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 2 am
pst Thursday for zones 645-670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 3 am
pst Wednesday for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until noon
pst today for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst Wednesday for
zone 673. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Wednesday for
zone 676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
An extended period of high surf and dangerous rip currents will
continue at all beaches through Thursday.

Public... Kaplan
aviation... Hall
marine... Sirard
beaches... Sirard
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46259 11 mi37 min 60°F16 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 23 mi77 min NNW 14 G 18 58°F 60°F15 ft1024.1 hPa (-0.5)
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 32 mi37 min 60°F17 ft
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 36 mi67 min N 25 G 26 58°F 1023.4 hPa (-0.7)
HRVC1 36 mi55 min 58°F 1023.7 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 42 mi40 min 61°F12 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 43 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 58°F1024.9 hPa
CPXC1 44 mi23 min NNE 4.1 G 6 57°F 1024.8 hPa43°F

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA39 mi69 minN 810.00 miFair49°F46°F92%1024 hPa

Wind History from VBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6CalmSE4SE8SE55N7N10N66NW7NW9N12N14N12NE4N4N7NE5N5N5N7N8N9
1 day agoE7SE7SE7SE9SE12W6S5NW7W5CalmW7W9W5W5CalmCalmW3SE5SE5SE6S7E9S3SE6
2 days agoSE6SE5SE8SE8SE5SE5SE5CalmNW7N8NW6N6N5N3CalmCalmE4E6CalmSE6SE6SE5SE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM PST     2.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:22 PM PST     -2.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:53 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:18 PM PST     0.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.8-0.20.61.422.32.21.70.9-0.1-1-1.6-2-1.9-1.5-0.9-0.30.20.40.40.1-0.4-0.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis, California
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Port San Luis
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:22 AM PST     5.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:21 PM PST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:53 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM PST     3.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.92.53.44.355.45.44.842.91.91.10.70.81.21.92.73.33.63.53.22.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.