Sunday, February18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Casmalia, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:49PM Sunday February 18, 2018 1:02 AM PST (09:02 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 8:47PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 835 Pm Pst Sat Feb 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am pst Sunday through Sunday evening...
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through late Monday night...
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sun..Northwestern portion, nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Elsewhere, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 15 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Combined seas 9 to 10 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 10 to 13 ft dominant period 10 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 10 to 11 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 10 to 12 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Tue..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 9 to 10 ft dominant period 12 seconds, subsiding to 7 to 8 ft dominant period 12 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 835 Pm Pst Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 7 pm pst...a 1000 mb low was located over the pac nw, with a cold front moving through northern california. The front will cross the sw california waters Sunday through Sunday night. Gale-force nw winds are expected to develop across the outer waters behind the front Sun evening through Mon night, and may affect portions of the nearshore waters during this time. Patchy dense fog will affect much of the waters late tonight into Sun morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casmalia, CA
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location: 34.7, -121.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 180607
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1007 pm pst Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis 17 810 am.

Above normal temperatures are expected today. An upper level
trough will bring a sharp cooling trend to the area Sunday through
Monday, with areas of gusty winds, night through morning low
clouds, and some light measurable rain and mountain snow across
los angeles county and northern ventura county. Monday night and
Tuesday night will be very cold. Cool and mostly dry weather is
expected Tuesday through Friday.

Update
Under sunny skies and weak offshore flow MAX temps rose to above
normal everywhere today. Due to an earlier sea breeze MAX temps
were a couple of cooler along the coasts today but inland temps
warmed a couple of degrees.

Big changes still on tap for Sunday and next week. The big
question for the next 12 hours is when will the marine layer form.

Satellite shows some low clouds forming across the outer waters
but the inner waters are still cloud free. The 00z NAM shows the
eddy spinning up a little later than previously thought and that
makes sense give the lack of clouds now. The low clouds will no
likely form more towards dawn rather than just after midnight.

The other question will be how long the clouds will stick around.

The new NAM boundary layer humidities show plenty of moisture
sticking around in the afternoon. But the official NAM cloud
forecast for the airports does not show much in the way of
afternoon clouds. Still have to think there is at least a 30
percent chc of the beaches staying cloudy all afternoon tomorrow.

Big cooling still on tap and almost all cst vly MAX temps will be
in the mid 60s.

Quick look at the latest NAM fcst for precip on late Sunday and
Monday shows some scattered showers over the area ESP over the
mtns and the southern half of la county but nothing too much at
all.

It still looks like Tuesday morning's temps are the main weather
concern over the next few days.

Current short term forecast is in good shape and no updates are
planned.

Short term (sat-tue) 17 715 pm.

Onshore flow will increase tonight into sun, and a return to marine
layer clouds is expected along many coastal areas into some of the
adjacent vlys later tonight into Sun morning. The low clouds will be
part of a shallow marine inversion of around 500 ft deep later
tonight with patchy dense fog possible, then the inversion should
increase Sun morning to lift any dense fog. Some of these clouds may
persist into Sun afternoon as well especially along the coast.

Otherwise, mostly clear skies can be expected tonight with sunny to
partly cloudy skies on sun.

Gradients will be strongly onshore Sun afternoon, with the nam
forecasting lax-dag to be +7.5 mb at 00z. Gusty NW winds near
advisory levels will affect the central coast Sun afternoon, with
gusty SW winds possibly to advisory levels expected over the l.A.

County mtns and deserts. Temps are forecast to cool substantially
for Sun back to near normal to slightly below normal, with highs in
the warmest vlys and inland coastal areas in the mid 60s to near 70.

The large mainly inside slider upper trof will push into ca sun
night and mon. The 12z ec and NAM have a slightly more over-water
trajectory with this trof and a wetter solution, while the 12z gfs
continues to have the more inland trajectory and drier. Thinking
here is a slight edge toward the NAM ec with slightly more precip
potential Sun night and mon, but precip amounts will still be rather
light at less then 0.10 inch except perhaps up to 0.25 inch on
the N slopes. An eddy will try to develop Sun evening over the
near shore waters of the socal bight, but it is looking more like
a surface cold front will move into the area and disrupt this
development with increasing NW flow over the coastal waters thru
the night. There will still be a SW lower level flow into SRN vtu
county and l.A. County Sun evening before the flow turns NW later
sun night.

Deep marine layer clouds should move into mainly l.A. County sun
evening and linger into early Mon morning along with a slight chance
to chance of rain from the coast to the coastal slopes. Snow levels
will drop quickly by late Sun night down to 3500 to 4500 ft, with
some snow possible on the N mtn slopes.

Upslope flow will bring clouds and a chance of snow showers to the n
mtn slopes and the eastern cuyama vly foothills on Mon into mon
night. Snow showers will probably affect travel on interstate 5 in
nw l.A. County and over the grapevine late Sun night thru Mon night
with about 1 to 3 inches of snow possible. The snow combined with
strong and gusty NW to N winds is expected to create hazardous
wintry driving conditions with poor visibilities in snow and
blowing snow at times. A winter weather advisory for snow and
strong winds is in effect for the l.A. Vtu county mtns from 6 pm
sun thru late Mon night. Please see the latest winter weather
message product (laxwswlox) for more details.

The latest model runs were also showing some moisture with a slight
chance of showers on Mon moving into western and central slo sba
counties and the ventura county interior valleys, san fernando vly
and santa clarita vly. The snow level is expected to drop even
more by early mon, down to 1500 to 2500 ft. With the extremely
low snow levels, there is the potential for light snowfall in the
hills above 1500 ft in these areas especially for Mon morning.

Strong and gusty NW to N winds are expected Sun evening for the
santa ynez mtns and S sba county coast, with strong and gusty nw
winds for the mtns and deserts. Gusty NW to N winds will affect much
of the forecast area on mon. Wind advisories will likely be needed
for Sun evening in some areas including the sba county S coast and
adjacent mtns. Wind advisories will also possible on Mon into mon
evening especially for the central coast, foothills, mtns and
deserts.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy across much of the region on
mon. Temps will turn much cooler and several degrees below normal
with highs in the warmest vlys and inland coastal areas only in the
mid 50s to near 60.

For Mon night and tue, the upper trof will slowly move E with
clearing across the forecast area by late Mon night. The gusty nw
winds will diminish into tue. A very cold and dry air mass will help
to contribute to widespread frost and hard freeze conditions mon
night into early Tue in wind-sheltered areas. Low temps in these
areas S and W of the mtns will likely drop into the mid 20s to
lower 30s, except lower 20s in the slo interior vlys. Hard
freeze freeze warnings and frost advisories will likely be needed
in many areas Mon night into Tue morning. Temps on Tue will
continue to be several degrees below normal in all areas.

Long term (wed-sat) 17 302 pm.

The ec and GFS do not show much consistency in the finer details
during the extended period except they both keep a broad long wave
upper trof pattern over the western u.S. Another shortwave upper
trof is forecast to move over ca (ec) or off the coast (gfs) on wed
into Wed night. Broad upper troffiness will then persist to some
degree over the region Thu thru sat. The timing, speed and position
of shortwave energy dropping into the long wave trof is off a bit
between the models. The ec forecasts one of the shortwaves to bring
a chance or rain and mtn snow to the forecast area late Thu thru
fri evening. The GFS keeps most of the shortwave energy to the n
and E of southwestern ca, with no pcpn expected over the region.

Have trended toward the GFS with the drier solution. However, have
kept ghost pops in the fcst for late in the week with partly cloudy
skies. Otherwise, mostly clear skies should prevail over the
forecast area thru wed, with partly cloudy skies Thu thru sat. Very
cold overnight lows are expected again Tue night. Frost advisories
and freeze warnings will likely be needed in the coldest wind-
sheltered parts of the coast and vlys, with the ojai valley expected
to drop into the mid 20s again Tue night. Daytime highs will be
near seasonal norms just about everywhere Wed thru sat.

Aviation 18 0607z.

At 0550z at klax... There was no marine layer nor was there a sfc
based inversion.

Expect low clouds to develop in coastal areas overnight, with the
possible exception of the south coast of sba county. Clouds
should spread into the valley toward morning. Conds will likely
start out in the lifr to vlifr category, then should improve to
ifr during Sun morning. Slow clearing is expected near the
immediate coast sun. There will be strong and gusty SW winds
across the antelope valley Sun afternoon.

Klax... Low confidence in the 06z TAF due to uncertainty in the
timing of low clouds and fog. Low clouds may not arrive until
as late as 12z or 12z. Ifr conds could last until 21z. There is a
30 percent chc of east winds greater than 7 knots between 11z-17z.

Kbur... Low confidence in the 06z TAF due to uncertainty in the
timing of low clouds and fog. There is a 30-40% chc that the low
clouds will not arrive. There is a 30 percent chc that the low
clouds will not arrive until 15z. There is a 30 percent chc of
MVFR CIGS lasting through 20z.

Marine 17 840 pm.

For the outer waters... Small craft advisory (sca) level
northwest winds will develop on Sunday and continue through
Tuesday. There is a 70 percent chance of gale force winds Sunday
evening through late Monday night.

For nearshore waters north of point sal, SCA level northwest
winds will develop on Sunday morning, with a 60 percent chance of
gale force wind gusts Sunday evening through Monday evening.

For the waters south of point conception, SCA level west
to northwest winds will develop by Sunday night and diminish early
Tuesday with the strongest winds across western sections. There is
a 30 percent chance of gale force gusts over the western portion
of these waters late Sunday night through Monday evening.

Patchy dense fog is expected to develop over the waters late
tonight, with visibilities dropping locally to one quarter mile at
times through Sunday morning.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Winter weather advisory in effect from 6 pm Sunday to 3 am
pst Tuesday for zones 53-54. (see laxwswlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 9 am Sunday to 3 am pst
Tuesday for zones 645-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm Sunday to 3 am pst
Tuesday for zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 am Sunday to 3 am pst
Tuesday for zones 670-673. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through late Monday
night for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (tue-sat)
Gusty and potentially damaging northwest winds are possible
Monday night through early Tuesday. There is also a chance of snow
and gusty winds Monday night combining to create hazardous wintry
driving conditions on the N mountain slopes including i-5 in
northwestern l.A. County and over the grapevine.

It will be very cold during the late night through mid morning
hours Monday night through Wednesday, especially where the winds
diminish. Frost or freezing temperatures will likely occur in the
valleys and coastal areas of santa barbara and san luis obispo
counties, and possibly across interior coastal sections and some
of the sheltered vlys of ventura and los angeles counties.

Public... Sirard
aviation... Db
marine... Smith
synopsis... Db b
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46259 19 mi40 min 57°F7 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 23 mi132 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 57°F5 ft1017.3 hPa (-0.6)
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 32 mi62 min 57°F6 ft
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 36 mi62 min N 13 G 15 53°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.6)
HRVC1 36 mi44 min 55°F 1016.9 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 42 mi35 min 56°F4 ft
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 43 mi44 min N 2.9 G 2.9 51°F 56°F1017.6 hPa
CPXC1 44 mi38 min N 5.1 G 7 47°F 1017.4 hPa36°F

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA39 mi64 minN 00.63 miFog/Mist49°F47°F97%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from VBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------SE9SE3CalmW7W6NW7NW7W4NW3N5CalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalm
1 day agoE7E7E6E6SE5SE11SE14SE11CalmNE5N7NW9N12NW11NW10NW10NW9CalmW4CalmCalmE6E6SE6
2 days agoNE5N7NE5CalmNW3N8CalmE6CalmNE5N9NE9NW8N15
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Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Point Arguello
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Sun -- 05:00 AM PST     1.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:30 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:59 AM PST     4.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 PM PST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.13.83.12.41.81.61.82.33.13.94.54.74.43.82.81.70.80.30.30.71.52.53.44

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:52 AM PST     1.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:31 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:49 AM PST     4.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM PST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:57 PM PST     4.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.732.31.71.61.92.53.34.14.74.94.53.72.71.60.70.30.30.81.72.73.64.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.