Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:41 PM   Moonset 2:23 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Monday evening - .
Overnight - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop late. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely late this evening and early morning, then a chance of showers late. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds, becoming ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 3 seconds and ne 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1002 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Low pressure system and its associated fronts impact enc this evening before pushing offshore by Sunday morning bringing unsettled weather to the area. High pressure ridging then builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

FXUS62 KMHX 190233 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1033 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure system and its associated fronts impact ENC this evening before pushing offshore by Sunday morning bringing unsettled weather to the area. High pressure ridging then builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front has pushed through the area and is now close to the NC/SC border along with an outflow boundary generated by this evening's storms. Convection is ongoing south of HWY 70 with areas north experiencing stratiform rain. The most favorable environment to support strong to severe storms will continue to push south and east with the front as it moves offshore tonight. Areas near the coast and offshore have the greatest chance of seeing strong to severe storms, although the threat is diminishing with northerly winds building in. The main hazards of concern continue to be gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and small hail. Showers will start to taper off from NW to SE late tonight with lows dipping to the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM Saturday... Upper level trough will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic to start our day out with this trough pushing offshore by SUn evening. Mid level shortwave will also push offshore by SUn evening as well. AT the surface low pressure off the coast will continue to push further out to seas as high pressure wedges itself across the Carolinas from the north bringing dry air to the region. Latest trends have come in drier for SUnday as it looks like the low will be farther away from the coast than previously thought which limits moisture availability across the area. As a result have lowered PoP's to SChc across just about all of the area with further reductions possible in coming updates. Otherwise steady NE'rly flow will keep temps on the cooler side with highs only getting into the 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM Sat...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday night...Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in the 50s.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s, then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...A tricky forecast persists through much of the period. Ceilings will lower to low-end IFR (if not LIFR)
from NE to SW through early Saturday morning. Periods of reduced visibility are also expected during this time with shower and thunderstorm activity in the area through the morning. Ceilings will recover slowly tomorrow. Far western terminals should approach MVFR ceilings by the end of the period, but eastern terminals (especially those along the OBX) could keep low-end MVFR ceilings through the period. The wind field will become northeasterly across the board over the next few hours (10 kt coastal plain, 15 kt OBX). Tomorrow, winds increase to around 10-15 kt across the coastal plain and 15-20 kt across the OBX.

LONG TERM /Sun afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday... Quasi stationary warm front stretches from NW to SE across the Pamlico SOund and adjacent coastal waters this afternoon and shouldn't move much until a developing low pressure system to the west quickly tracks E'wards tonight and brings this front south as a cold front tonight. To the south of the front, 5-10 kt SW'rly winds with 1-3 ft seas are noted while to the north of the front 5-10 kt NE'rly winds and 2-4 ft seas are noted this afternoon. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along this boundary this evening, the strongest of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. As the low pushes offshore and the front moves S'wards precip chances will lower after 06Z and winds across all waters will shift from north to south to a NE'rly direction and increase with widespread 15-25 kt NE'rly winds with gusts up to 25- 20 kts expected across just about all of our waters except the Pamlico/Pungo River. As a result, have small crafts just about everywhere to account for this N'rly surge. Elevated N'rly winds continue into Sun evening.

Seas will begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning within the strengthening northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low and remain around 3-6 ft with some 7 ft seas possibly noted along the outer coastal waters Sun afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off of the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in it's wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds, including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30 kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.

HYDROLOGY
As of 340 PM Sat...A warm front will stall northwest to southeast along and just south of hwy 264 (including Greenville)
this evening, with the potential for convection to train along the boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall amounts as high as 3-5". This may occur over a relatively small area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we'll be closely monitoring this potential.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ137.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ154-156.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ158.

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Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:13 PM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

Coral Bay
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Sat -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:40 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coral Bay, Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,