Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:45 AM EDT (04:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 8:46PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 938 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers and tstms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, NC
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location: 34.7, -77.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 240146
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
946 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area tonight and Thursday. Strong high
pressure will build in from the north Friday through Sunday, while
an area of low pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary
off the southeast coast.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 940 pm Wednesday... Axis of heavy precipitation now along
the southern coast and will be transitioning off the coast over
the next few hours. Adjusted pops to categorical along the
southern coast accordingly. Otherwise will still see a chance of
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as the
front continues to cross the area overnight. The cold front is
forecast to be offshore between 09z and 12z Thursday morning.

Expect low clouds to persist through the night in the vicinity
of the front and some patchy fog. It will be a little cooler
tonight behind the front with lows in the lower 70s inland to
mid 70s coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 305 pm Wednesday... With the cold front lingering over the
far southern portion of the CWA or just south, a more stable
airmass with slightly cooler temperatures and slightly lower
dewpoints can be expected for Thursday. Still tricky as to how
far south the front actually gets, and will keep fairly high
pops through midday Thursday and will maintain slight chance of
thunder over the far southern zones, while the northern portion
remains more showery in a more stable airmass. High temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler with low mid 80s for most of the
cwa Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 3 pm wed... Below normal temps expected through the
period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with
the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast,
though much uncertainty remains regarding this system.

Thursday through Friday night... The slow moving front will
continue to push off the south coast Thursday night. Scattered
showers and isolated storms will continue, tapering off from nw
to se. Strong high pressure will build in from the north
beginning Friday, with broad upper troughing across the area,
while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast.

Isolated showers Fri and Fri night forecast to remain over the
southern coastal waters. Depending on the track and strength of
the developing low off fl this weekend.

Saturday through Wednesday... Models continue to show possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week... Though
much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given
how far out in time and varying model solutions lack of run to
run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the fl coast
sat night and sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through wed. Precip
chances increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward.

Models also continue to show the remnants of harvey interacting
with a frontal boundary over the gulf coast region, and pushing
northeast. A lot of uncertainty with how this system will
evolve as well.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term through 18z thu
as of 740 pm Wednesday... Seeing MVFR to ifr conditions in a
large area of showers and thunderstorms slowly transitioning
east with the cold front. Expect MVFR to ifr conditions to
develop with low clouds behind the front and some patchy fog
given heavy rains this evening. Low stratus will lift through
the day. MVFR conditions could linger longer through the morning
and into afternoon than is currently reflected in the taf.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 3 pm wed... Scattered convection will end from northwest to
southeast Thursday evening.VFR dry conditions forecast through
the rest of the period for iso and pgv. Isolated showers could
return for ewn and oaj Sunday into Monday. Surface winds ne
around 10 kt Friday, NE 10-15 kt Saturday, NE 15-20 kt Sunday
and Monday.

Marine
Short term tonight and Thursday ...

as of 940 pm Wednesday... Made minor tweaks to winds and seas
utilizing high res models and based on latest observations.

Aside from shifting winds with outflow boundaries from
thunderstorms, expect southwest winds 10-15 knots from around
hatteras south, with a few higher gusts at times. Winds will be
west shifting to northwest and eventually north late tonight across
northern waters as the front passes. Seas are in the 2-4 foot
range and will remain there overnight. The cold front should
gradually move across the CWA and offshore between 09z and 12z
with winds become W nw. Gradient becomes weaker behind the front
with winds generally right around 10 knots with gusts to 15
knots. Waves will remain 2 to 4 feet Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm wed... A prolonged period of NE winds 10-20 kt
expected behind the front Thursday night into Friday, strong
winds and rough seas developing this weekend and continuing into
next week. SCA conditions likely to develop this weekend and
continue into next week.

A slow moving front will continue to push off the south coast
Thursday night, with winds gradually becoming northeast. Strong
high pressure will build in from the north Thu night through
Saturday. Nne winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft through fri.

Models are still showing the potential for tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model
solutions. Strong E NE winds and rough seas are expected late
weekend into next week. Though given the uncertainty in how this
system will evolve, mariners should continue to monitor this
situation over the next several days.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Rsb ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Hsa
aviation... Rsb ctc hsa
marine... Rsb ctc hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi46 min NNW 7 G 8 73°F 84°F1012.4 hPa (+2.6)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 39 mi46 min WNW 1 G 4.1 76°F 81°F1009.9 hPa (-0.5)
41159 41 mi33 min 83°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi38 min NNW 9.7 G 16 75°F 84°F1012.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 42 mi47 min 83°F3 ft
41064 42 mi38 min N 12 G 16 75°F 83°F1011.8 hPa
WLON7 44 mi46 min 73°F 85°F1012.9 hPa (+2.1)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 47 mi46 min NNW 6 G 7 78°F 1010.4 hPa (-0.3)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi38 min NW 16 G 21 78°F 84°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC2 mi50 minSW 65.00 miThunderstorm Rain Fog/Mist72°F72°F100%1012 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC15 mi50 minSSW 710.00 miLight Rain71°F71°F100%1012.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi49 minW 36.00 miRain68°F0°F%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5SW5S4SW4SW65SW6SW6SW4SW4W53SW4S8S8S7S3S5S7--N4SW7SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3N3W14S4S3S7S9S5S5S9S7S7SW5SW3SW5
2 days agoCalmCalmN3CalmN3NE3N4N3N5NE5E4E5E8SE6S5SE7SE5SE7S5S3S3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:12 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:32 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.80.80.2-0.10.10.71.62.53.13.43.32.81.91.10.3-00.10.51.32.333.53.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:03 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:18 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:29 PM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.30.60.1-0.100.51.21.92.42.62.521.40.80.2-000.411.72.32.62.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.