Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM   Moonset 12:52 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 653 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

AMZ100 653 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of enc.

FXUS62 KMHX 022314 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 714 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of ENC.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 715 PM Thu... After a brief period of some patchy fog along the immediate coast of the NOBX things have cleared up across ENC as high pressure remains overhead. Overall no significant changes to the forecast for tonight as mo clear skies and temps in the 70s and 80s will give way to lows in the 60s, clearing skies early this evening, and then another round of fog tonight. Some of the fog could become dense again, especially across srn half of the FA around the Crystal Coast, where high res model suite and HRRR probs are highlighting a 60-80% chance for less than 1 mile visibilities in this area with closer to 10-30% probs from about Lenoir, Northern Craven, and Beaufort Counties north and the fog forecast reflects this.
May need a headline DFA at some point tonight depending on how fog covg and density evolves. Winds will be calm to light ssw overnight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 303 PM Thu...After morning fog burns off, another very warm day on tap, with highs into the mid and upr 80s interior, to 70s coast as a dry sea breeze develops once again.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 0330 Thursday...Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week. Best rain chances on Sunday

Weekend...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week.
Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-50% Monday, 15-30% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the originally dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday.

Early next Week...Upper ridging builds back over the area Tuesday behind a weak shortwave passing Monday. Shortwave and remnants of the weekend's front/SFC trough will lead to some precip Mon. Temps rebound next week with highs expected to reach back into 80s Mon and Tues, 90s Wed.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 715 PM Thursday... Pred VFR conditions this afternoon have remained across ENC with VFR conditions continuing into late tonight before giving away to a fog threat. After looking at the latest guidance have sped up the timing of the fog threat by a few hours with EWN/OAJ likely seeing patchy fog between 4-6Z while ISO and PGV start seeing fog develop closer to 6-8Z and will reflect this timing in the TAF's. Fog could become dense at times especially along the Crystal Coast which would result in IFR/LIFR conditions at the EWN/OAJ TAF sites. Have also penciled in IFR vis at ISO but kept PGV at MVFR vis with patchy fog as HI-RES suite and HRRR visibility probs support a higher dense fog threat closer to the Crystal Coast. By early Fri morning any leftover fog will quickly burn off resulting in VFR conditions through the reminder of Fri.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 303 PM Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period.
Winds will be light (5 kt or less) and variable for much of the day but will slightly increase in speed (5-10 kt) as they transition to southerly and then eventually southwesterly by later tonight. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.

May be dense fog again for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again, esp further south in the srn/ctrl coastal waters, Pamlico Sound, and Neuse/Pamlico rivers later this evening into early Fri.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Sub- SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday. North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday- Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:28 PM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
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New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bogue Inlet
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Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:25 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
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Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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