Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday April 30, 2017 12:49 PM EDT (16:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:09AMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1138 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas building to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers, then showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach town, NC
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location: 34.71, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 301516
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1116 am edt Sun apr 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the atlantic will extend into the area
through tonight producing a warm southerly flow which will lead
to near record highs over eastern north carolina today. A cold
front will approach from the west Monday and cross eastern nc
Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in behind the front
Wednesday. A strong and slow moving low pressure area will
affect the region late this week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 1100 am Sunday... Minor adjustments to sky cover into mid
afternoon but forecast generally on track. Scattered to broken
cu streets developed quickly this morning due to moist low
levels. Coverage expected to thin this afternoon due to dry
conditions above 3000 ft along with inland push of mostly clear
sea breeze zone. Given relativley dry atmosphere and subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, do not expect any convective precip
development. Temps on track for highs near 90 inland and 80s
coast.

/previous discussion/
as of 615 am Sunday... S/sw flow will continue around atlantic
surface high pressure across the carolinas through tonight and
this will lead to another day of near record warmth across the
region (see climate section below). Widespread low clouds across
the area early this morning will dissipate by mid morning with
mostly sunny skies in the afternoon with highs within a few
degrees of 90 inland and low to mid 80s coast. Can't rule out an
isolated afternoon thunderstorm along the sea breeze this
afternoon but not high enough to include in the forecast.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
As of 300 am Sunday... High pressure will continue to extend
into the region producing a warm s/sw flow. Guidance is
indicating that widespread low clouds will develop again by late
evening. Overnight lows will range from around 70 beaches to
the mid to upper 60s inland.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
As of 345 am Sunday... Models remain in good agreement through
mid week with progressive upper low moving from plains into
great lakes breaking down upper ridge over SE us Sunday night
into Tuesday, followed by zonal flow Wednesday. The flow will
become more amplified late this week with the models indicating
the potential for a strong upper low to affect the southeast and
mid atlantic region. This low has the potential for heavy rain
and possible severe weather towards the end of the week.

Monday through Wednesday... The mid-upper level ridge will
continue to break down with the approach of the cold front on
Monday and slowly cross the region Mon night into early Tuesday.

Most all the models continue to show good precip coverage
across the area Monday night into early Tuesday and will
continue likely pops this period. The cold front will be
offshore by Tuesday morning, but showers may linger during the
morning. Any lingering showers will tamper off from west to east
as high pressure builds in from the north... Leading to skies
becoming mostly sunny/clear through Wednesday.

Temps on Monday will continue to be warm with highs low/mid 80s
inland and upper 70s/around 80 along the beaches. Temperature then
cool to around 80 inland and low/mid 70s along the coast, after
the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday... A deep upper level trof will dig
down into the southwest/southern plains region of the country
enhancing the development of a significant low pressure system.

00z ECMWF has becoming in better agreement with GFS and
canadian model with the low developing near the low/mid miss
valley and lift northeast... Remaining west and north of eastern
nc... Keeping our area in the warm/moist sector. This will have
the potential for severe weather and heavy rain on Friday into
Saturday. Thursday will remain warm in the low 80s inland and
low/mid 70s obx, but a cooler temp trend will start Friday with
highs in the 70s.

Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 615 am Sunday... SubVFR conditions at the TAF sites
/mainly in ceilings/ are expected to improve to prevailingVFR
by late morning as low level moisture mixes out. Late this
evening the low levels are again forecast to become saturated
with subVFR ceilings /mainly MVFR/ developing with any fog
development isolated as the low levels will remain mixed
overnight.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...

as of 345 am Sunday... A cold front will be move across the area
mon night into early tue... Bringing an increase of showers
and thunderstorms... Leading to subVFR conditions. Then high
pressure builds in behind the front Tue through wed. Possible
sub-VFR Thursday due to scattered showers/thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 1100 am Sunday... No changes with update with moderate s-sw
flow continuing into tonight.

/previous discussion/
as 615 am Sunday... Due to increased confidence, small craft
advisories will be issued for the northern and southern waters
and a gale watch will be issued for the central waters from mon
into Tue for winds associated with a cold frontal passage. The
surface pattern will remain static through tonight with atlantic
high pressure extending into the carolinas producing a s/sw
flow of 10 to 20 kt through the period. Seas will continue 2 to
4 ft through this evening then build to 3 to 5 ft late tonight
as winds become gusty.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...

as of 345 am Sunday... An approaching cold front will increase
sw winds to 20-30 kt Mon through early Tue with low end gales
possible central waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-11 ft
by late mon/mon night into early tue. SW winds diminish to 10-20
kt tue, briefly become NW around 5-15 kt late Tuesday night,
then back to southerly 10 kt wed. Seas slowly subside Tue and
tue night, dropping below 6 ft late Tue night and to 2 to 4 ft
wed. SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt ahead of cold front
Thursday with seas building again to 4-6 ft.

Hydrology
As of 300 am Sunday... The tar river in greenville is expected
to reach moderate flooding, while contentnea creek in hookerton
is in major flood stage. The neuse river in kinston is now at
minor flood stage, and is forecast to increase further to major
flood stage early this week. The NE CAPE fear river in
chinquapin forecast remains in minor flooding. The roanoke river
is forecast to rise over the next several days due to increased
flow out of kerr dam but is expected to remain below flood
stage. Additional rainfall forecast for Monday night into
Tuesday is not expected to have a significant impact on the high
water levels.

Climate
Record highs are possible Sunday with an extremely warm air
mass over eastern nc.

Record high temps for 04/30
---------------------------
location temp/year
new bern 91/1974 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 84/1974 (khse asos)
greenville 92/1957 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 86/1957 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 94/1906 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 90/1987 (knca awos)

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for
amz152-154-156.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Monday for amz152-
154-156.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Monday to 5 pm edt Tuesday for
amz158.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Monday to 8 am edt Tuesday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme/jbm
short term... Jme
long term... Jme/bm
aviation... Jbm/bm
marine... Jme/jbm/bm
hydrology... Mhx
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 3 mi50 min SSW 8.9 G 12 76°F 71°F1023.1 hPa (+0.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi50 min SW 8 G 12 78°F 1023.5 hPa (+0.0)
41159 36 mi37 min 74°F3 ft
41064 37 mi42 min SW 12 G 16 74°F 1023.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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SW14
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SW11
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G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC4 mi1.9 hrsSW 1310.00 miFair78°F73°F87%1023.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi1.9 hrsSSW 6 G 177.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1023.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC16 mi53 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast79°F72°F79%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12
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SW11SW10S10SW11SW8SW10SW9SW9SW7S7S7S7SW7SW10SW11SW11SW13SW12
1 day agoS11S15SW13
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S14S14SW13S12S9S8S10S8SW9S10S8S7SW8S9SW5SW6SW8SW12SW15SW14SW12
2 days agoSW14S14S14S9
G18
S9S12SW11SW10S8SW8SW10S10S10S9S8S10S8SW9S8S9S11S12S12S12

Tide / Current Tables for Morehead City, North Carolina
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Morehead City
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:43 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.52.51.40.3-0.3-0.5-0.10.61.52.42.93.12.721.10.3-0.3-0.300.81.92.93.7

Tide / Current Tables for Channel Marker Lt. #59, North Carolina
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Channel Marker Lt. #59
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:21 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:52 PM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.52.21.60.90.3-0.1-0.200.51.11.622.11.91.50.90.40-0.10.10.51.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.