Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:25PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:12AMMoonset 11:42PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Rest of today..SW winds around 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms late this morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach town, NC
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location: 34.71, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181455
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1055 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
An offshore high inland trough pattern will continue through mid
week producing a hot southwest flow across the area. A weak
frontal boundary may move into northern sections Tuesday night
and Wednesday with a somewhat stronger front pushing through
the area Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1030 am mon... Latest sfc analysis shows 1020mb high
pressure anchored off the SE coast with weak troughing across
central nc. Latest radar imagery shows convection across
southern areas has moved offshore. Shortwave energy moves se
of the area today as the upper ridge builds eastward and the
offshore high inland trough surface pattern continues. Expect
scattered convection to redevelop this afternoon with a moist
and unstable airmass persisting; kmhx 12z sounding shows pw
values of 2.16" with CAPE over 4000 j kg when modified to
expected afternoon t td. Primary forcing is expected to be
along the sea breeze and any lingering outflow boundaries from
early morning storms. Low level thicknesses increase several
meters and support highs in the low to mid 90s well inland to
upper 80s lower 90s closer to the coast. Heat indices are
expected to top out around 100-105 this afternoon. Could be
close to advisory criteria for a few counties along hwy 17, but
looks too marginal at this point for an advisory.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 255 am mon... Expect lingering convection to weaken with
loss of heating this evening, with isolated showers storms
possible along the coast. Mild and muggy overnight with lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 330 am Monday... Latest guidance continues to indicate
upper ridge building east over area through midweek, resulting
in very hot and humid conditions for tue-wed, with highs in mid
to upper 90s and heat indices 105-110 degrees. A weak frontal
protrusion into northern sections is indicated early Wednesday,
then a stronger front will push in late Thursday into Friday.

Tuesday through Wednesday... A strong upper level ridge will
build over the lower mississippi valley through midweek. At the
surface, high pressure will become centered well offshore, and
ridge into the SE us, while a weak trough forms over central nc.

Increasing low level heights through Wednesday will support
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland, and the upper
80s to low 90s near the coast. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the
most oppressive days during the week, as dewpoints increase
into the mid to upper 70s, and heat indices climb to around 110
degrees. Overnight low temperatures will be very mild ranging
from the low to upper 70s. Latest guidance has trended to just
isolated convective precip threat tue-tue night due to building
ridge, then a better chance wed-wed night as ridge flattens
slightly and allows weak surface front to push into northern
half of area.

Thursday through Saturday... Initial frontal boundary will
dissipate over area early Thursday, then main models in general
agreement that stronger shortwave will break down ridge enough
to allow frontal push through entire area Thu night into Friday.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of inland
thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend. Main change with
this forecast issuance was to increase pops to 50% for most of
area Thu afternoon and southern sections Thu night, then mainly
20-30% pops rest of period. Temps in low to mid 90s and heat
indices around 105 again for thu, then 5-8 degrees cooler for
fri-sat and back into lower 90s Sunday. Low temps will
continue to be mild, mostly in the 70s.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 635 am mon,..Vfr forecast for most of period as typical
summertime offshore high inland trough pattern will continue.

Scattered showers and storms expected to re-develop this
afternoon and early evening, best chances at ewn and oaj, with
periods of sub-vfr possible.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 400 am Monday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible each day due to scattered thunderstorms.

Some sub-vfr CIGS will be possible with ne-e flow behind front
Friday into Friday night.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 635 am mon... Latest obs shows SW winds 5-15 kt north of
oregon inlet with seas around 2 ft, and 10-20 kt south of oregon
inlet with seas 3-4 ft. An offshore high inland trough pattern
will continue through the short term bringing typical diurnally
enhanced wind pattern. SW winds are expected to relax to around
5-15 kt this morning, then increase to 15-25 kt across the
central and southern waters in the afternoon and evening. Seas
expected around 2-4 ft through the period but could see some 5
ft seas across outer waters south of hatteras late this
afternoon and tonight. Will go ahead an issue a marginal SCA for
the waters south of hatteras, developing this afternoon
evening into tonight. The gradient will tighten, and most model
fields show winds increasing to 15-25 kt.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 400 am Monday... Southern half of waters will continue to
see SW winds mainly 10-15 kt into thu, while northern half will
see shifting and variable conditions due to weak front pushing
in from north late Tue into wed. Stronger front now expected to
push through all waters late Thu into Friday, producing ne-e
winds 10-15 kt. Seas mainly 2-4 feet during period.

Climate
Near record high temperatures will be possible early this week.

Record high temps 6 18 (today)
location temp year
cape hatteras 90 1975
greenville 99 1920
jacksonville 95 1984
kinston 101 1944
morehead city 91 2015
new bern 96 2014
record high temps 6 19 (Tuesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 1984
greenville 98 1975
jacksonville 97 1984
kinston 100 1944
morehead city 94 1984
new bern 99 1970
record high temps 6 20 (Wednesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 2011
greenville 99 1970
jacksonville 97 1994
kinston 104 1924
morehead city 93 2011
new bern 98 1994

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am edt
Tuesday for amz154.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
Tuesday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Sk cqd
near term... Sk cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Jbm
aviation... Jbm cqd
marine... Jbm cqd
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 3 mi47 min SW 6 G 14 83°F 81°F1018.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi65 min SSW 12 G 15 1019 hPa (-0.5)
41159 36 mi35 min 81°F4 ft
41064 37 mi57 min SW 12 G 18 81°F 81°F1019.1 hPa
41063 42 mi125 min SW 14 G 16 78°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC4 mi67 minSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F78°F85%1018.5 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi71 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F78°F80%1018 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC16 mi68 minSSW 910.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity77°F77°F100%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12SW17
G21
SW16SW16SW18SW14SW16SW15SW7SW10SW12SW13
G20
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SW14W12W4SE5E8E4SE7S7SW9SW14SW13
1 day agoE8SE9SE9SE7SE6SE7S7S7S8S8S6SW8S10SW11SW7SW8SW8SW5SW6SW7SW11SW12SW12SW11
2 days agoE86SE9E5E6E8E6E4E3CalmE3E4E4E4E5E3E3CalmCalmE6E8E7SE6E7

Tide / Current Tables for Morehead City, North Carolina
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Morehead City
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:29 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.13.8320.90-0.4-0.40.10.91.92.6332.61.910.3-0.1-0.10.41.22.13

Tide / Current Tables for Channel Marker Lt. #59, North Carolina
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Channel Marker Lt. #59
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:36 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.42.21.81.20.60.1-0.2-0.20.20.71.31.82.12.11.91.40.80.30-0.10.20.61.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.