Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:32 PM EDT (23:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 353 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 409 in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough late. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..N winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, NC
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location: 34.71, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201932
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
332 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight, and move
through the area Friday morning. High pressure will build in
from the north this weekend. More unsettled weather is likely
to return later next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 310 pm thurs... A widespread severe weather event appears
likely this afternoon and into tonight, as confidence has
increased in severe weather parameters especially related to
damaging winds. The SPC has included all of eastern nc in an
enhanced risk, and mentioned the possibility of a couple of
significant MCS type thunderstorm complexes forming. Timing for
storms appears fairly consistent across the high res models.

There will be some scattered convection across the area by late
this afternoon, and then further west a stronger area of
convection is expected to develop and congeal into an MCS by
early this evening, and move through eastern nc by early
tonight. Drying out overnight.

Very hot conditions currently with temperatures in the mid 90s
inland, and heat indices 100 to 105, while temps are in the
upper 80s to low 90s closer to the coast with heat indices 95 to
100. Temperatures will cool quickly this evening, and then drop
into the low to mid 70s overnight.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
As of 315 pm thurs... With the upper level trough over the area
tomorrow, strong westerly winds are expected, with lowering
humidity through the day. Warm temps are still expected, and
with westerly winds even locations along the immediate coast
will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 320 pm thurs... A brief period of quiet weather is
expected behind the passing front Friday night and Saturday as
weak high pressure ridges in from the north. Moisture creeps
back into the area by Sunday with mid-level ridging overhead.

Low chances of showers and thunderstorms are possible through
mid week.

Friday night and Saturday... Reinforcing cold front will push
into the area Friday night, as high pressure builds in from the
north. NW winds are expected Saturday, which will help keep
high temps down... Upper 70s to mid 80s.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Difficult forecast follows to
start the week in regards to precip chances. Southerly flow and
increasing moisture advection is forecast late Saturday into
Sunday as the high reestablishes itself offshore. Isolated to
widely scattered convection is likely along the seabreeze each
afternoon. There are two disturbances that could flatten the
ridge and lead to slightly better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, namely:
1. A convective system forecast to develop over the central
plains and ride the ridge into north carolina from the
northwest, likely Saturday night into Sunday. With the high to
our northeast the better instability will be to our west, but it
is possible the coastal plain could destabilize enough to see
some convection.

2. A shortwave is forecast to lift across the central u.S.

During the beginning of the week, although its timing and
degree it will flatten the ridge is in question due to large
model spread.

The presence of the ridge, and the low confidence in the timing
and placement of these impulses, precludes any pops higher than
30% through Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday look to be the
warmest days with the ridge overhead with highs approaching the
mid 90s both days. Combined with oppressive dewpoints in the low
70s, heat indices will once again near 100 during this period.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through tomorrow afternoon ...

as of 325 pm thurs...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the TAF period. A few hour period of MVFR conditions will be
possible late this afternoon into the evening as scattered to
widespread severe thunderstorms roll through the area. It should
be mostly clear for the rest of the night with winds turning to
the west behind the storms. Strong west winds will continue
Friday with some gusts 25-30 mph.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 325 pm Thursday... PredominantlyVFR conditions expected
Friday night and Saturday with dry air filtering in behind the
front. A return to more unsettled weather Sunday and Monday
translate to chances for sub-vfr conditions in showers and
thunderstorms. Early morning fog stratus is possible in areas
that receive daytime rainfall.

Marine
Short term through tomorrow night ...

as of 330 pm thurs... Scas continue for the coastal waters and
sounds, and have added the albemarle sound for strong westerly
winds expected tomorrow.

Winds are currently SW 20-25 kts, with gusts close to 30 kts
over the waters, and seas are 3-6 ft. Winds are expected to
continue out of the SW through tonight, and may strengthen for
some time this evening, with some gale force gusts possible over
the southern and central coastal waters. Then, winds shift to
the west tomorrow, but will continue to be somewhat strong,
20-25 kts. Winds then slowly decrease through the afternoon
hours and into tomorrow night. Seas are expected to build to
5-10 ft tonight, and then slowly subside through the day
tomorrow.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 325 pm Thursday... Westerly winds of around 15-20 knots
behind a passing cold front will quickly diminish to 10-15 knots
as weak high pressure builds in from the north, eventually
becoming N at 10 knots or less Saturday. As high shifts offshore
winds are forecast to become S SW at around 10-15 knots, with
the highest winds in the afternoon with increasing thermal
gradients.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz195-
196-204-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for amz231.

Small craft advisory from 3 am to 2 pm edt Friday for amz230.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for amz152-154-156-
158.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sgk
short term... Sgk
long term... Ms
aviation... Sgk ms
marine... Bm sgk ms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 3 mi44 min SW 13 G 24 81°F 84°F1006.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi32 min SW 17 G 23 81°F 1006 hPa (-1.0)76°F
41159 36 mi32 min 79°F9 ft
41064 37 mi24 min W 23 G 33 80°F 80°F1006.5 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC4 mi94 minSW 25 G 3210.00 miFair and Windy83°F75°F79%1005.7 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC13 mi2.6 hrsSSW 17 G 2710.00 miA Few Clouds89°F75°F63%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS11S10SW11S10S10S8SW9S9SW4SW8NW9SW5SW4W6SW9SW11SW12SW11SW12SW12SW15S15S18
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2 days agoSW11SW11SW10SW11SW10SW13SW11SW8SW11SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9SW10SW12SW13S13S13S14SW13SW13S14S10

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Atlantic Beach Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:09 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.521.40.80.30.10.10.511.622.22.11.81.30.80.40.20.30.61.21.82.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Lenoxville Point, North Carolina
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Lenoxville Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:50 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.321.50.90.40.10.10.30.81.31.7221.81.40.90.40.20.20.50.91.51.92.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.