Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morehead City, NC
May 11, 2024 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 7:45 AM Moonset 11:13 PM |
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 654 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning - .
Today - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this morning, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt early this afternoon, becoming W late. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop late this morning, then diminishing to light chop early this afternoon, diminishing to flat late.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Sun - NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely.
Tue night - S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 654 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Another cold front will move through the waters tonight, followed by high pressure for the remainder of the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 110917 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 517 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
Another cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by high pressure building into the area early next week. A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 315 AM Sat...Upper trough is swinging off the mid- Atlantic coast this morning with attendant surface low pressure following it well into the open Atlantic, giving way for high pressure centered over the southern MS Valley to weakly ridge into the Carolinas from the west. Another well defined shortwave was analyzed over the Upper Midwest with a weaker surface low, forecast to dig into the Great Lakes region through the short term and stall over the northeastern CONUS.
A lingering surface trough draped roughly along the I-95 corridor is providing a focal point for a rapidly decaying cluster of low clouds and a spotty shower. This will continue to wane through this morning and all areas will be dry by sunrise.
Otherwise, cooler conditions prevail today with ongoing CAA in modest northerly flow. Big temperature differences anticipated with extensive strato-cu and cool onshore flow tempering temperatures in the 60s, but inland more breaks of sun allow highs to recover well into the 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 315 AM Sat...Upper trough and low pressure to our north and west will drop a cold front across the Carolinas overnight.
A few CAMs are showing very spotty shower activity popping up thanks to pre- frontal convergence but given dry sub-cloud layers in model soundings think this will be little more than virga to spotty sprinkles, and opted to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast. The front will bring an uptick in low and mid-level cloud cover, and along the coast a rapid veering of winds out of the south and then west by daybreak Sunday.
Overnight lows very similar to this morning, in the low to mid 50s inland and near 60 along the coast.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
Sunday through Monday night...An upper low will push across the northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday with an embedded shortwave pushing across the area early in the day. Guidance showing a few coastal showers early in the day but will quickly be overcome by a drying deep layer west-northwesterly downslope flow. High pressure will become centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night then will migrate offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft.
Temps will be seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points will be much below normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions.
Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.
Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in better agreement with another southern stream system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 135 AM Sat...Mixed bag of flight conditions across eastern NC this morning, predominantly MVFR but some isolated occurrences of IFR in a weak cluster of showers migrating southward along a surface trough draped across the coastal plain. Little change in these conditions is expected at least until sunrise as shallow but saturated low-levels remain in place, but some spotty IFR development is possible (20-30% chance) across the coastal plain primarily north of EWN during the early morning hours. After sunrise, increased heating will aid in a return to VFR conditions by 14-15z along and west of Highway 17 while over the Outer Banks sub-VFR conditions will persist thanks to persistent moist onshore flow.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected across Sunday through Monday as high pressure builds across rtes. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Small Craft conditions persist across all area waters this morning with increasing northerly flow in the wake of low pressure departing into the open Atlantic. Regional observations show widespread winds of 20-25 kt with gusts of 30+ kt, consequently building seas to a minimum of 5 feet, and as high as 7 feet north of Cape Hatteras. Winds are expected to ease through the day as weak high pressure builds over the waters from the west. By tonight, another weaker cold front will approach and cross the waters from the west, resulting in a rather rapid veering of winds to southerly by midnight and then westerly by daybreak Sunday. The westerly surge will not be as strong as this morning's but will still push winds to 15+ kt.
Local wave guidance, as expected, is not building seas quickly enough north of Hatteras. Leaned on the NBM and WNA wave models to nudge seas here closer to observations. Additionally, models now hold onto elevated seas across the central waters slightly longer than the previous forecast. Extended SCAs for these zones to 00z Sunday, but otherwise left prior headlines intact.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters Sunday and Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sunday will see Wly winds around 15-20 kt and seas around 3-5 ft, except 2 ft near shore Onslow Bay. A backdoor front will push through Sunday night with easterly winds around 15 kt or less developing Monday with seas around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135- 156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 152-154.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 517 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
Another cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by high pressure building into the area early next week. A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 315 AM Sat...Upper trough is swinging off the mid- Atlantic coast this morning with attendant surface low pressure following it well into the open Atlantic, giving way for high pressure centered over the southern MS Valley to weakly ridge into the Carolinas from the west. Another well defined shortwave was analyzed over the Upper Midwest with a weaker surface low, forecast to dig into the Great Lakes region through the short term and stall over the northeastern CONUS.
A lingering surface trough draped roughly along the I-95 corridor is providing a focal point for a rapidly decaying cluster of low clouds and a spotty shower. This will continue to wane through this morning and all areas will be dry by sunrise.
Otherwise, cooler conditions prevail today with ongoing CAA in modest northerly flow. Big temperature differences anticipated with extensive strato-cu and cool onshore flow tempering temperatures in the 60s, but inland more breaks of sun allow highs to recover well into the 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 315 AM Sat...Upper trough and low pressure to our north and west will drop a cold front across the Carolinas overnight.
A few CAMs are showing very spotty shower activity popping up thanks to pre- frontal convergence but given dry sub-cloud layers in model soundings think this will be little more than virga to spotty sprinkles, and opted to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast. The front will bring an uptick in low and mid-level cloud cover, and along the coast a rapid veering of winds out of the south and then west by daybreak Sunday.
Overnight lows very similar to this morning, in the low to mid 50s inland and near 60 along the coast.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
Sunday through Monday night...An upper low will push across the northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday with an embedded shortwave pushing across the area early in the day. Guidance showing a few coastal showers early in the day but will quickly be overcome by a drying deep layer west-northwesterly downslope flow. High pressure will become centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night then will migrate offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft.
Temps will be seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points will be much below normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions.
Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.
Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in better agreement with another southern stream system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 135 AM Sat...Mixed bag of flight conditions across eastern NC this morning, predominantly MVFR but some isolated occurrences of IFR in a weak cluster of showers migrating southward along a surface trough draped across the coastal plain. Little change in these conditions is expected at least until sunrise as shallow but saturated low-levels remain in place, but some spotty IFR development is possible (20-30% chance) across the coastal plain primarily north of EWN during the early morning hours. After sunrise, increased heating will aid in a return to VFR conditions by 14-15z along and west of Highway 17 while over the Outer Banks sub-VFR conditions will persist thanks to persistent moist onshore flow.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected across Sunday through Monday as high pressure builds across rtes. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Small Craft conditions persist across all area waters this morning with increasing northerly flow in the wake of low pressure departing into the open Atlantic. Regional observations show widespread winds of 20-25 kt with gusts of 30+ kt, consequently building seas to a minimum of 5 feet, and as high as 7 feet north of Cape Hatteras. Winds are expected to ease through the day as weak high pressure builds over the waters from the west. By tonight, another weaker cold front will approach and cross the waters from the west, resulting in a rather rapid veering of winds to southerly by midnight and then westerly by daybreak Sunday. The westerly surge will not be as strong as this morning's but will still push winds to 15+ kt.
Local wave guidance, as expected, is not building seas quickly enough north of Hatteras. Leaned on the NBM and WNA wave models to nudge seas here closer to observations. Additionally, models now hold onto elevated seas across the central waters slightly longer than the previous forecast. Extended SCAs for these zones to 00z Sunday, but otherwise left prior headlines intact.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters Sunday and Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sunday will see Wly winds around 15-20 kt and seas around 3-5 ft, except 2 ft near shore Onslow Bay. A backdoor front will push through Sunday night with easterly winds around 15 kt or less developing Monday with seas around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135- 156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 152-154.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 3 mi | 53 min | N 12G | 58°F | 73°F | 29.79 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 13 mi | 83 min | N 17G | 58°F | 29.81 | |||
| 41064 | 37 mi | 75 min | N 18G | 62°F | 71°F | 29.80 | 57°F | |
| 41159 | 37 mi | 57 min | 71°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 4 sm | 25 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 50°F | 77% | 29.83 | |
| KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC | 15 sm | 27 min | N 10G18 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 29.84 | |
| KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC | 16 sm | 26 min | N 05 | 6 sm | Clear | Mist | 55°F | 54°F | 94% | 29.84 |
Atlantic Beach Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:44 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EDT 2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:52 PM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:44 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EDT 2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:52 PM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Atlantic Beach Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.6 |
Channel Marker Lt. #59
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 12:05 PM EDT 1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:00 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 12:05 PM EDT 1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:00 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Channel Marker Lt. #59, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| -0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Morehead City, NC,
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