Tuesday, December11, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaufort, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:58PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 11:44 PM EST (04:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 931 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Wednesday...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, except 1 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, except 1 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaufort, NC
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location: 34.72, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 120257
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
957 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region tonight through
Thursday. Another strong storm system will affect the area
Friday into Saturday. High pressure will gradually build in from
the west early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 10 pm Tuesday... Temperatures already at or below freezing
with the exception of the outer banks at late evening. Based on
current trends, lowered minimum temperatures a degree or two
overnight. Otherwise, no changes needed to current forecast, as
high pressure along the florida gulf coast continues to build
east. Skies are clear, but some higher clouds may approach the
far western CWA toward morning.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
As of 3 pm tue... High pressure will continue to build in from
the southwest wed. Shortwave energy will move through the area
during the afternoon and evening, and expect to see increasing
mid and high clouds. Low level thickness values support highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest across the southwest.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
As of 225 pm tue... High pressure along the eastern seaboard thu
will result in a brief period of dry conditions in between two
very wet weather systems. Another dynamic and strong storm
system will move east for the end of the week. GFS and ECMWF now
in better agreement concerning the placement of what will be a
cutoff mid-level low moving across the deep south with the gfs
then trending a faster and a bit to the north toward the mid-
atlantic by Sunday. The primary concern with this system from
the current guidance cycle is the threat of heavy rainfall, as a
consensus of the gfs ECMWF shows 2-4 inches of rain. With
already swollen creeks and rivers, this could cause additional
flooding of low-lying areas. Strong gusty SE S winds will also
be likely with this system.

With this latest forecast cycle, guidance has come in a bit
warmer and wetter, so have increased high temps and pops for
Friday and Saturday. We could see high temps reach the mid to
upper 60s for much of the area both Friday and Saturday, as well
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. This may be enough
moisture to produce MUCAPE values 500-800 j kg, which given the
strong dynamic environment, would be favorable for the
development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

Sunday through Monday... The ECMWF has been consistent over the
past 2 runs showing surface cyclogenesis off the nc coast
Sunday into Monday as a strong upper level low moves overhead.

This would keep rain showers around both Sunday and Monday. The
gfs is more progressive with the upper trough and shows dry
weather for both days. Will introduce chance pops for this time
period to hedge in between both model solutions.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 00z Thursday ...

as of 7 pm Tuesday...VFR conditions should prevail through this
taf cycle as high pressure builds east from the western gulf of
mexico. W NW winds should decouple inland and a few patches of
fog may be possible at kpgv and kiso, but should be short-lived
and will not include in the tafs at this time. Skies should be
sunny on weds.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm tue...VFR conditions should prevail through thu
evening with high pressure building in from the north and
northeast. Showers become widespread Friday into Saturday, with
periods of sub-vfr conditions likely. Gusty SE S winds will also
accompany the front Friday night and Saturday.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 10 pm Tuesday... Winds continue to slowly subside, but seas
remain elevated at 5-8 feet on the coastal waters. Small craft
advisories continue on all but the central waters through 12z
Wednesday morning, with seas finally dropping until 6 feet on
all waters by Wednesday afternoon. No major changes needed for
this update.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm tue... Winds will veer to E SE at 5-15 knots for
Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty SE S winds increase to
20-30 knots Friday into Saturday as seas rebuild to as high as
10-12 feet by Saturday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for amz150-156-
158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Cqd
long term... Sgk
aviation... Ctc cqd bm
marine... Ctc cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 0 mi51 min WNW 2.9 G 6 42°F 50°F1021.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 10 mi45 min W 11 G 12 1021.3 hPa (+0.0)
41159 38 mi45 min 68°F6 ft
41064 38 mi37 min NW 16 G 23 53°F 68°F1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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G31
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G25
N16
G25

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC1 mi1.8 hrsW 410.00 miFair38°F28°F70%1021.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi51 minSW 39.00 miFair31°F30°F96%1021 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC20 mi1.8 hrsWNW 49.00 mi32°F28°F88%1021.9 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC24 mi1.8 hrsWSW 510.00 miFair39°F30°F73%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11
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N12N9N11
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N13NW14NW12N14NW13NW13NW14NW11W6W6W4W4W4W4
1 day agoN20
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2 days agoNE11NE12
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G36
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G30
N16
G23
N16
G30

Tide / Current Tables for Beaufort, Duke Marine Lab, North Carolina
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Beaufort
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:49 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM EST     3.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:45 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.30.80.40.30.51.11.82.533.33.32.82.11.40.80.40.40.71.21.72.22.52.6

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:29 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:10 PM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.20.90.60.30.10.10.40.81.31.71.81.81.61.30.90.50.30.10.20.40.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.