Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Broad Creek, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:29PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:53AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 642 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am edt Friday through Saturday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop... Increasing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Fri..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning...then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough... Diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...increasing to rough. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough... Diminishing to a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Broad Creek, NC
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location: 34.72, -76.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 302307
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
707 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure off the coast will move east tonight. A warm
front will move through during the day Friday, followed by a
cold front Friday evening. High pressure will pass through from
the northwest this weekend. Tuesday, a warm front will lift
through early, followed by a cold front late. Another front will
cross the region Wednesday night or Thursday.

Near term /tonight/
As of 7 pm thu... Latest sfc analysis shows 1028mb high pressure
centered over quebec extending down the east coast... With 999mb
low over illinois and associated warm front draped through the
se us. North-south oriented surface/upper ridge along the
eastern seaboard will move east tonight. Deeper moisture will
overspread the forecast area from the southwest after midnight
as warm front approaches. Latest radar imagery shows scattered
showers and thunderstorms well to the west/southwest this
evening. Latest high res guidance in fairly good agreement
showing a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
strengthening over western nc/sc tonight, then pushing ene
towards eastern nc early Friday morning. Did not need to make
sig changes to previous pops. At this time think line will push
into region between 5-8 am... With an isolated strong to severe
storm possible. Mild temps with cloud cover and southeast flow,
in the lower 50s northern outer banks to upper 50s southwest.

Will likely see lows early, with temps and dewpoints rising
towards early Friday morning.

Short term /Friday/
As of 3 pm thu... An active day in store. Latest SPC day 2
outlook continues to show entire forecast area in marginal risk
for severe storms. Models indicating widespread
clouds/convection in the morning as the warm front lifts
through, followed by a dry slot and cooling aloft in the
afternoon just ahead of shortwave trof/cold front. Continued
categorical pops through 16z along and ahead of the warm front.

Tapered pops back to 40-50% except along outer banks with 60%.

Any breaks in the clouds Friday afternoon will help
destabilization, so any storms that develop could produce severe
wind/hail, along with an isolated tornado.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
As of 3 pm thu... Lingering shra and poss a storm cst early fri
evening will end late evening as front crosses with drier air
working in. Limited CAA with mild low in the 50s.

Dry weather with pleasant temps for the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the nw. Highs Sat will range from mid/upr
60s cst to mainly mid 70s inland. Thicknesses drop a bit with
north winds developing Sat night into Sun with cooler temps.

Lows Sat night in the 40s most areas with highs Sun ranging from
mid 50s NE cst to lower 70s sw. The high will slide offshore
later Sun night with flow becoming SE and lows upr 40s to lower
50s.

Another rather potent SRN stream short wave will impact the
region later Mon into tue. Moisture will be steadily increasing
mon as srly flow increases with some sct convection espcly
inland during the afternoon. Will cont with chc pops inland to
slight chc cst with highs low to mid 70s inland and 60s beaches.

Main band of shra and tsra expected Mon night into first part
of Tue as best lift pushes across. Will cont likely pops this
time frame and cant rule out severe threat depending on degree
of instab. Will be in warm sector with lows Mon night upr 50s
to around 60 and highs Tue mid to upr 70s inland. Precip shld
taper off later Tue with dry weather Tue night as sfc low/front
slide offshore.

12z GFS and ECMWF much faster/weaker with next short wave later
wed and thu. For now have slight pops later Wed night and low
chc Thu but these may be overdone if faster and weaker trend in
mdls cont. Temps will remain mild mid to late next week with
70s inland to 60s beaches.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
Short term /through Friday/...

as of 7 pm thu... PredVFR conditions expected through 06z, with
conditions deteriorating late tonight and early Friday morning.

Expect cloud bases to lower to MVFR toward dawn Friday as a
warm front approaches from the southwest. Expect a line of
showers and embedded thunderstorms to move through the terminals
Friday morning, mainly between 11-16z. Then could see scattered
showers and thunderstorms re-develop in the afternoon/early
evening. Periods of ifr conditions will be possible in heavier
showers, with best chances early fri. SE winds overnight,
becoming S Fri with gusts 20-25 kt. Expect improving conditions
Friday evening with convection likely tapering off andVFR
returning.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...

as of 300 pm thu... Any lingering subVFR early Fri evening shld
improve toVFR overnight as drier air works in.VFR thru sun
night as high pres builds in from the NW over the weekend then
slides offshore. Increasing chcs of subVFR later Mon and
espcly Mon night into Tue as another strong short wave produces
numerous shra and some tsra.

Marine
Short term /through Friday/...

as of 7 pm thu... Poor boating conditions in the short
term... With gusty winds and dangerous seas developing late
tonight and Friday. Latest obs show pred e/se winds 10-15 kt
with seas 3-5 feet. Southeast flow tonight will increase and
veer to s/sw Friday as a warm front moves through. Winds will
peak at 15-25kt Friday with seas building to 5-9 feet. Sca
continues for the waters. Another SCA may be needed for the
sounds, and possibly inland rivers. Expect a line of showers
and embedded thunderstorms to move through the waters Friday
morning and early afternoon mainly between 11-18z. Then could
see scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop in the
afternoon/early evening.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...

as of 300 pm thu... Gusty SW winds will keep seas elevated in the
6 to 9 foot range Fri evening. Winds will become wnw and
diminish to 10 to 20 kts by early Sat as front pushes offshore
with seas dropping to 4 to 7 feet. Wnw winds will diminish to 10
to 15 kts later Sat with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. As the
high builds in from the NW and low pres conts well to the ne
expect N winds to develop Sat night into Sun with speeds
increasing to 10 to 20 kts. These winds will lead to seas
reaching 6 to poss 7 feet outer central and NRN wtrs later sat
night into Sun evening. Winds will become light later Sun night
into early Mon as high crests over the region and begins to
slide offshore. Seas will drop to 3 to 5 feet later Sun night
and early mon. Lull in winds brief as srly winds grad increase
mon as next system approaches with seas building back to 4 to 7
feet by Mon evening. Gusty ssw winds of 20 to 30 kts Mon night
and early Tue as low pres/cold front approach with seas
building to 8 to 11 feet by Tue morn. Winds and seas will begin
to slowly subside late Tue as front pushes thru.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Friday to 11 am edt Saturday
for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 5 am edt Saturday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Cqd/hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Rf
aviation... Rf/cqd
marine... Rf/cqd/hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 13 mi41 min SSE 8 G 11 65°F 64°F1016.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 21 mi29 min SE 13 G 14 65°F 1017.5 hPa (-0.3)
41159 35 mi46 min 65°F5 ft
41064 36 mi81 min SE 14 G 19 67°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC7 mi32 minSE 910.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1018.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC10 mi95 minENE 77.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F54°F78%1017.8 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC13 mi91 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F57°F71%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E9E7E6NE4NE4NE6NE6NE7NE7N7N7NE6E10NE75E12E10E11E12E10E12E9SE9
1 day agoSW5SW4NW4Calm--NW4NW4NW3NW3NW5N65NE6NE12NE11
G21
NE9--N8--E8
G17
NE8NE9NE7E9
2 days agoS8S8SW5S6SW3SW5SW8SW7W5SW3SW5SW4SW4SW8SW6SW5--S7SW11S8SW105SW74

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.41.10.70.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-00.40.81.21.31.310.70.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.40.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for N.C. State Fisheries, North Carolina
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N.C. State Fisheries
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.710.3-0.2-0.5-0.40.10.81.522.221.60.90.3-0.2-0.5-0.400.71.62.22.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.