Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Broad Creek, NC

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Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday August 19, 2018 9:22 PM EDT (01:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 619 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop late. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then a chance of showers and tstms late this evening. Showers and tstms likely after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Broad Creek, NC
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location: 34.72, -76.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 192358
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
758 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will drop into the northern forecast area
late tonight and Monday, then lift back north Monday night and
Tuesday. Another cold front will move through the area Thursday,
then stall off the coast into next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 620 pm Sunday... Updated to adjust pops wx and sky cover into
late evening. Scattered convective activity is confined to sea
breeze sound breeze zone from near koaj to northern pamlico
sound and latest meso models indicate this trend continuing into
late evening. Adjusted wording to indicate scattered coverage
that area with just slight chance pops to NW and se. Kept
increasing pops for overnight with latest models supporting
increase in coverage overnight with approaching short wave
energy and surface front. Adjusted sky cover based on latest
satellite trends. No change to temps.

Previous discussion
as of 230 pm Sunday... Precip timing and coverage difficult with
mdls showing wide variety of solutions. Think as instab
increases with heating thru this aftn will see sct shra tsra
develop with best coverage inland especially along sea breeze.

Better coverage will cont inland during the evening and then
late tonight models mostly agree best precip chc will be closer
to coast. Overall have mainly chc pops thru the evening then low
likely near coast late. Limited instab shld keep storms below
svr lvls however high precip wtr values will lead to locally
heavy rainfall. Lows mostly low mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 230 pm Sunday... Weak ill defined cold front will be near
nrn tier thru the day with limited forcing aloft. Shld again see
enuf Sun for highs well into the 80s leading to decent instab.

Expect another day with mostly sct shra tsra with better
coverage near coast in morn shifting inland during the aftn.

Modest instab and weak shear will again limit svr threat with
locally heavy rain a good bet.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 310 am sun... A mean upper trough is forecast over the
eastern us through the period while low level southerly flow
continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region
with pw values AOA 2". The favorable combination of forcing
aloft and moisture instability in the low levels will result in
unsettled conditions through the first part of the week with
precipitation chances at or above normal and temperatures at or
slightly below normal. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
above climatological norms through mid week as conditions remain
favorable for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Monday night through Tuesday... A weak front is forecast lift
back north Monday night and early Tuesday. Highs in the mid to
upper 80s through mid week, and overnight lows in the 70s.

Wednesday through Sunday... Another cold front will approach the
area mid to late week. There are still some timing differences,
with the GFS much more progressive and pushes the front through
quite a bit faster than the ecmwf. Expect the front to push
through the area Thursday, then likely remained stalled off the
coast into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from
the north. Expect to see a drier airmass build into the area
with lesser precip chances. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Some
guidance has lows dropping into the low mid 60s late week and
next weekend.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Short term through Mon ...

as of 750 pm Sunday... CurrentVFR conditions expected to persist
into overnight, then some sub-vfr CIGS likely developing 08z-
13z with ifr threat mainly kpgv and kiso.VFR returning for
most of Monday. Scattered showers tstms lingering along sea
breeze will remain in vicinity of kewn and koaj next few hours
then expected to diminish. Additional activity expected to
develop overnight with short wave energy and surface front
approaching from north and enough support to include tempo for
MVFR shra all sites 08z-12z. Scattered convective coverage for
most of the day Monday.

Long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 310 am sun... Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will produce sub-vfr conditions at times through the period. In
addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds
and fog early each morning. A cold front will push through the
area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Marine
Short term through Mon ...

as of 625 pm Sunday... Adjusted weather wording for this evening
but no change to winds seas.

Previous discussion
as of 230 pm Sunday... Winds gusts have been below 25 kts past
cpl hours and seas 5 ft outer buoys so will drop SCA rest of
today central and SRN wtrs, however will likely remain just
below. Gradient expected to loosen overnight as weak front sags
toward NRN wtrs and stalls thru mon. SW winds will become light
n of CAPE hat tonight into Mon and could see variable dir at
times. S of hat SW winds will cont 15 to 20 kts this evening
then mainly 10 to 15 kts late tonight and Mon with still poss
some gusts to 20 kts. Seas will subside to 2 to 3 ft n. Over
srn tier seas will be mainly 3 to 5 ft tonight and 3 to 4 feet
mon.

Long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 310 am sun... A weak front is forecast to lift back north
Monday night and early Tuesday. S SW winds return for all
waters Tuesday 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early building to 3-5 ft Tuesday night.

Gradient tightens Tue night and wed, with SW winds increasing to
15-25 kt and seas building to 3-6 ft. Could see a brief period
of SCA conditions Tue night into wed, with best chances across
the central waters. A cold front is likely to push through the
waters Thursday then stall off the coast into the weekend. Winds
will shift becoming NE E 5-15 kt.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf jbm
short term... Rf
long term... Cqd
aviation... Jbm cqd
marine... Rf jbm cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 13 mi34 min SW 7 G 12 81°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 21 mi82 min SW 11 G 14 1015.2 hPa (+0.4)
41159 35 mi82 min 83°F4 ft
41064 36 mi74 min SSW 16 G 18 82°F 82°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC10 mi28 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F79°F94%1015.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC13 mi84 minSW 1310.00 miFair81°F78°F91%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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S13S15S13SW14S11S11S11S9S8S10S11S9S8S7S9S9S10S10S10SW9S12
2 days ago--SW8SW7SW8SW10S9S13--S12--S13SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:47 AM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:17 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.70.911.110.80.60.40.30.20.20.40.70.91.21.31.31.21.10.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for N.C. State Fisheries, North Carolina
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N.C. State Fisheries
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:32 AM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:19 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.21.51.71.71.61.310.60.40.30.40.71.21.622.22.11.91.61.30.90.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.