Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lebec, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:19PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 5:39 PM PDT (00:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 201 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ600 201 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 2 pm pdt, a 1026 mb high was over idaho and a weak trough was located in the central valley of california.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lebec, CA
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location: 34.73, -118.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 162042
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
142 pm pdt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis 16 901 am.

A persistent pattern of warm and dry days - with afternoon breezes
- will continue through Friday. Low pressure over arizona will
retrograde over southern california this weekend, increasing
offshore wind speeds and bringing rain showers to inland areas.

Short term (tdy-fri) 16 125 pm.

Offshore gradients and support aloft continue to weaken and winds
are doing the same with most areas dropping out of wind advisory
criteria. Will let the current slate of advisories expire on
schedule at 3pm and likely won't need any more of those until at
least Friday or Saturday when the next little offshore push takes
place. In the meantime, continued warm and very dry, though
humidities will be inching up over the next few days. There will
be some northeast breezes next couple days, especially late night
through early afternoon hours but gusts should be below 35 mph.

Wind protected valleys will continue to get chilly at night with
lows in the 30s and 40s.

On Friday offshore flow will pick up again as high pressure
strengthens over nevada following the passage of an upper low.

Gradients with this event should be at least a couple mb weaker
than yesterday and upper support will be weaker as well so at this
point we're looking at a low end wind advisory situation at best
for valleys and mountains and probably just below advisory level
for ventura coast and malibu areas. Since this next event will not
have as much cold air behind it temps will be warmer than they
have been with highs jumping into the lower 90s in the valleys and
close to 90 for la ventura coastal zones. Humidities also not
quite as dry Friday so probably not a red flag situation either
but certainly elevated fire concerns given this ongoing long
duration offshore period.

Long term (sat-tue) 16 140 pm.

Offshore flow with this next event expected to peak Saturday
morning at around 5mb if models remain consistent until then. That
would still put it a notch weaker than the event we just had so
low end wind advisories may be needed late Friday into Saturday
for valleys and mountains. One last day of warming Saturday for
coast valleys before onshore trends start knocking temps down sun
into early next week.

One factor to keep an eye on for this weekend is the possibility
of some moisture getting picked up from the southeast by an upper
low that is expected to develop off the coast Saturday. The gfs
has been consistent showing this the last few days, but it's not
a lot of moisture and the air mass isn't that unstable. Pwats peak
out at around .5-.75" in our area and there's not much moisture
below 10k ft so it's not a classic monsoon push by any means.

Can't really argue with a slight chance of thunderstorms for
la ventura mountains late Sat and Sun but unless models show more
moisture and or instability with this about the most we'd see is
maybe a few sprinkles. A high percentage of the GEFS members
support at least .01" falling by Sunday across extreme eastern la
county, however the ECMWF is considerably less excited. Hard to
pick out a favorite but it seems justified to keep the small pops
going for now.

Aviation 16 1719z.

At 1800z at klax there was no marine layer nor any inversion.

Overall, high confidence in cavu conds for the next 48 hours.

The winds will be lighter than they were Monday and there will be
less turbulence and wind shear.

Klax... High confidence in cavu taf. The east wind component should
remain under 8 kt.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf.

Marine 16 103 pm.

Outer waters... Good confidence in current forecast. There is a
20% chance of SCA level wind gusts this afternoon evening.

Inner waters north of point sal... High confidence in current
forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Friday.

Inner waters south of point conception... The SCA has been
cancelled. Local gusts to 20-25 kt are possible. Otherwise, the
winds will remain below SCA through the week.

Fire weather 16 1241 pm.

The red flag warnings for the coastal areas, as well as the
interior areas of san luis obispo and santa barbara counties were
canceled for today. The winds will not be strong enough for red
flag, but very dry conditions will maintain elevated concerns. The
remaining red flag warnings will expire at 8pm this evening, with
no plans to extend them.

The gusty santa ana winds continue today, but have weakened and
shrunk in coverage from yesterday. Wind gusts between 30 and 50
mph should be expected in the wind prone valleys and mountains of
los angeles and ventura counties. The strongest winds will be in
the late morning and early afternoon hours. Relative humidities
will be slightly higher than yesterday, but still very dry with
minimums generally in the 5 to 10 percent range away from the
coast. The winds and humidities will improve slowly each day
through Thursday but remain locally breezy and dry. So while the
most extreme red flag conditions are not expected past today,
elevated fire weather conditions will remain. Winds will boost
some on Friday and Saturday, and there is a small chance for
critical conditions.

This is remains a dangerous situation. The public needs to use
extreme caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Large
fires have been started by things like discarded cigarettes,
campfires, welding equipment, metallic weed wackers, and dragging
trailer chains. Be prepared for power outages and be ready to
evacuate if you live in the urban-wildland interface.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon for
zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 8 pm pdt this evening for
zones 244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
Elevated fire weather conditions expected through the period with
locally gusty offshore winds, low humidities, warm temperatures,
and dry fuels are expected through at least Saturday. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the mountains
and antelope valley late Saturday through late Sunday.

Public... Mw
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
fire... Kittell
synopsis... Fisher
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 51 mi48 min 64°F2 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 52 mi63 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 68°F 1016.3 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 52 mi39 min SW 5.1 G 7 69°F 66°F1015.2 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sandberg, CA4 mi46 minE 810.00 miFair66°F7°F10%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from SDB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E13
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1 day agoSW5CalmNE5E20
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2 days agoNW7CalmNW13
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SW6SW4W8W4NW12NW12NW13N13
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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:17 AM PDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:20 AM PDT     3.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:01 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:41 PM PDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:40 PM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.72.32.83.23.53.63.63.53.53.43.43.53.744.14.243.63.12.51.81.31

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:22 AM PDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM PDT     3.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:51 PM PDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:39 PM PDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.52.12.73.23.63.73.73.63.43.33.33.43.73.94.14.24.13.73.12.41.71.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.