Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lebec, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:13PM Friday January 19, 2018 3:30 AM PST (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:40AMMoonset 8:48PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 301 Am Pst Fri Jan 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through Saturday evening...
Today..W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft dominant period 17 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft dominant period 15 seconds.
Sat..W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 14 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 14 seconds after midnight.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming W to nw 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 301 Am Pst Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst...a 985 mb low was located 400 nm nw of seattle. A 1007 mb low was centered in nevada with a cold front extending southwestward into the northern coastal waters. This cold front will move through the coastal waters this morning. Strong nw winds behind this front will affect the waters through Sat. In addition, a very large W to nw swell will overspread the waters through tonight and persist into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lebec, CA
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location: 34.73, -118.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191116
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
316 am pst Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
An incoming storm system will bring much cooler temperatures...

gusty winds... And light rain and mountain snow showers to the
region today. Snow showers will linger into Saturday morning
across the northern slopes. Warmer conditions return next week
with a slight chance of showers primarily along the central coast.

Short term (tdy-sun)
latest satellite imagery indicated plenty of high to mid level
clouds moving across the forecast as a weakening frontal boundary
moves into slo county this morning. Below the high clouds plenty
of low clouds were filling across la vtu counties W of the
mountains. There will be a chance of some morning drizzle across
portions of la vtu counties early this morning, while light
showers continue to move across areas N of point conception this
morning. As the upper trough continues to move rather quickly
through the area, the lower level wind profiles will not be
conducive for much in the way of precip across areas S of point
conception, especially ventura county and the sba south coast due
to the downsloping from the mountains upstream. There will be a
better chance of precip across southern l.A. County towards the
valleys and foothills later this afternoon and overnight hours.

Have tailed back the slight chance for thunderstorms this evening
to only the northern portion of the outer waters. Most of the
precip will be concentrated across the northern slopes of the
ventura county mountains and NW northern slopes of the l.A. Mtns
including the i-5 corridor around the grapevine. Snow levels will
remain high this morning between 7500 to 8000 ft, but by late this
afternoon or early evening, snow levels are expected to plummet
to around 4000 ft. Then lowering to between 2500 and 3500 ft after
midnight tonight. With most of the moisture being concentrated
across the northern slopes of the la vtu county mtns, travel
across the i-5 corridor is expected to be treacherous due to
blowing snow and icy conditions. NW to N winds are expected to
strengthen late this afternoon through Saturday morning across the
mountains.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the la vtu sba county
mountains beginning late this morning including the foothills of
the cuyama valley. The timing might be a tad early, but snow
levels will lower to around 6000 ft by this afternoon. Expect 3-6
inches of snow with highest amounts across the NRN slopes. Also an
inch of snow for the cuyama valley foothills. Wind gusts of 50
mph can be expected later this evening to go along with the snow.

A wind advisory will be issued for the sba south coast from late
this afternoon through mid morning Saturday. Winds are expected to
get gusty across the montecito area late tonight into Saturday
morning as well. The day shift might have to add wind advisories
for the santa clarita san fernando valleys and possibly for the la
basin, especially the western l.A. Tonight into early Saturday.

For Saturday there could be a few lingering showers across
southern l.A. County including the eastern san gabriel mtns as
well as the northern slopes of the local mountains, especially
the ventura county mtns. Snow showers should linger into early
Saturday afternoon across the i-5 corridor, then diminish. Expect
partly to mostly cloudy skies across the interior areas Saturday,
with partly cloudy skies for most other areas. There will be the
slightest warming trend on Sunday, but still remain a bit cooler
than normal for this time of year. Skies should remain partly
cloudy on Sunday, but that could be a bit pessimistic for coastal
areas which could see more sunshine.

A weak cold front ahead of an upper low west of british columbia
is moving slowly south along the california coast between the bay
area and point conception. Rainfall so far has made it to
monterey, with nothing further south yet. Expect any rain (or
drizzle) for the central coast to be very light, and not likely to
occur before midnight. With little in the way of lift, totals
north of point conception will be up to 0.10 at the most, and
likely less than that. Meanwhile, onshore flow and low level
moisture have created a tricky forecast for coastal areas. Low
clouds with 1 2 mile fog are affecting santa maria, but the dense
fog does appear not to be widespread. Low clouds and periods of
light rain or drizzle are likely for most areas west of the
mountains as the front crosses the area.

From previous discussion
Following the cold front will be the
upper low which will bring more in the way of dynamics late Friday
into Saturday but by then a good portion of the moisture has
moved east with the initial frontal band. The exception being the
north facing slopes near the kern county line and the grapevine
where moisture will bank up against the mountains as strong
northwest flow develops. At the same time much colder air will
drop snow levels to around 3000' by Friday night and likely create
some hazardous driving conditions over the grapevine on
interstate 5. Could see 1-3" of accumulation on or around the
interstate into Saturday morning. That combined with wind gusts of
50+ mph will make for a very hazardous drive through the
mountains. The northwest flow and diminishing moisture will likely
result in a substantial decrease in clouds and shower activity
elsewhere by Friday evening but with gusty west to northwest winds
that may reach advisory levels near the coast and in parts of the
antelope valley. A little bit of instability over the coastal
waters west of pt conception late Friday and will keep the small
chance of thunderstorms out there.

Cool, dry, and breezy over the weekend after the last of the mtn
showers taper off Saturday.

Long term (mon-thu)
slow warming trend early next week as a ridge starts to build over
the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the tail end of another weak
front coming through the area Monday but any precipitation should
be confined to NRN slo county at best. Elsewhere just some mid and
high clouds. Poor agreement in the models mid to late next week
with the possibility of another weak system for either Wed or thu
but again very low confidence. None of the model solutions in the
last few days have indicated anything more than a very light
precip event at best, and mostly northern areas. Then dry and
warmer going into next weekend.

Aviation 18 2300z...

at 2300z, there was an inversion around 500 ft deep at klax. The
top of the inversion was near 700 ft with a temperature of 18 deg
c.

Low to moderate confidence in the 00z TAF package. Through early
this evening, high confidence inVFR conditions for all sites. For
tonight Friday morning, a weak system will bring a chance of light
rain or drizzle for most areas with ifr to MVFR conditions for all
areas west of the mountains. Confidence in timing of lowering
cigs vsby is low, as is the timing of -ra dz.

Klax... Moderate confidence in the 00z taf. For late this evening
through Friday morning, high confidence in MVFR conditions
developing with moderate confidence in ifr conditions after 15z.

Low confidence in timing of CIGS vsby and low confidence in timing
of showers in the vicinity.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in the 00z taf. High confidence in
MVFR conditions developing late this evening, and moderate
confidence in ifr conditions after 16z. Low confidence in timing
of CIGS vsby and low confidence in timing of showers in the
vicinity.

Marine 18 730 pm...

for the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in small craft advisory (sca) level
conditions through Friday morning due to hazardous seas, with sca
level winds in many areas as well.

Very large NW swell will continue to overspread the waters this
evening, and peak tonight and Fri morning, with combined seas of
15-19 feet. NW winds will increase fri. There is a 50% chance of
gale force winds Fri afternoon thru Sat evening across the
southern two zones (pzz673, pzz676) and a 20% chance of gales
across the northern zone (pzz670).

For the inner waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For the waters north of point sal, high confidence in
small craft advisory (sca) level conditions due to hazardous seas
through tonight, then winds and seas Fri thru Sat evening. There
is a 20% chance of gale force winds Fri afternoon and Fri night.

Across the sba channel and the southern inner waters, west swell
will build tonight and Friday. There is a 40-50% chance of gale
force winds Fri afternoon thru sat. Gale watches are in effect,
but confidence is not high enough to upgrade to warnings at this
time. There is a good chance that a SCA will be needed as early as
late tonight or Fri morning, due to hazardous seas and or winds.

Dangerous breaking waves are possible near harbor entrances,
including morro beach harbor and ventura harbor through Saturday

Beaches 18 800 pm...

an extended period of large surf is expected to continue along
west to northwest facing beaches through Saturday evening as very
large westerly swells move through the coastal waters.

For west and northwest facing beaches along the central coast,
surf will peak around 15 to 20 feet with local sets to 25 feet
this evening through Friday before slowly subsiding through
Saturday evening. A high surf warning remains in effect from this
afternoon through 900 pm pst Saturday. The high surf may cause
beach erosion and will produce life-threatening rip currents.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in low lying areas such as
parking lots, especially near the times of high tide.

For west and northwest facing beaches south of point conception,
surf will peak at 8 to 12 feet by late tonight through Friday.

Local sets to 15 feet will be possible on exposed west facing
locations such as ventura harbor. High surf will continue through
Saturday evening before slowly subsiding. A high surf advisory
remains in effect through 900 pm pst Saturday evening.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf warning in effect until 9 pm pst Saturday for zones
34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Winter weather advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to
4 pm pst Saturday for zones 38-52>54. (see laxwswlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through Saturday evening
for zone 39. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 10 am pst
Saturday for zone 39. (see laxnpwlox).

High surf advisory in effect until 9 pm pst Saturday for
zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm pst
Saturday for zone 59. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Sunday for
zones 645-670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst this afternoon
for zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 9 pm pst
Saturday for zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until noon pst today for zones
673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from noon today to 9 pm pst Saturday
for zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
no significant hazards expected.

Public... Kaplan
aviation... Smith
marine... Db rat sirard
beaches... Db rat smith
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 51 mi61 min 61°F7 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 52 mi55 min N 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 1016.3 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 52 mi43 min E 4.1 G 6 58°F 61°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sandberg, CA4 mi38 minSSW 510.00 miFair49°F37°F64%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from SDB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE4NE5N8NW7CalmCalm4S13
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1 day agoN4N4NE9NE8E14E14E17
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2 days agoN14NW13--N18NE6Calm4N8N15N12NW17NW20N16N11N9NW15N11N3NE12NE9NE7NE7NE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:00 AM PST     2.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:59 AM PST     5.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM PST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:38 PM PST     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.22.72.32.12.32.93.74.65.25.55.24.53.42.110.1-0.2-0.10.51.52.53.33.7

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:01 AM PST     2.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:08 AM PST     5.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM PST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:52 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:48 PM PST     3.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.32.82.42.22.42.93.74.55.15.45.24.53.52.210.1-0.3-0.20.41.32.33.23.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.