Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lebec, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday July 18, 2018 11:08 PM PDT (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:09PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 839 Pm Pdt Wed Jul 18 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 7 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 839 Pm Pdt Wed Jul 18 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt, a 1034 mb surface high was located about 1200 nm nw of point conception. A 1006 mb thermal low was centered near las vegas, with a trough of low pressure extending nw through central ca. This pattern will change little through Thu night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lebec, CA
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location: 34.73, -118.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 190325
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
825 pm pdt Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis 18 531 pm.

The temperatures will stay above normal this week with only minor
daily changes. The marine layer will bring the overnight clouds.

Then a moist monsoonal flow is forecast into Friday and may bring
possible storm activity, at times, mainly in the mountains and
deserts. A high should build in by early next week for a warming
trend and to reduce cloudiness inland.

Short term (wed-sat) 18 817 pm.

***update***
plenty of mid level clouds have developed over the region early this
evening as instability and hi pwat values persist. So far no
lightning strikes out of these clouds, but there were plenty beyond
the coastal waters (outside of 60 nm offshore). The 00z NAM was
showing weak impulses moving over the area this evening at 500
mb... Which may be enough of an impetus for some thunderstorm
development. Will keep the current forecast as is, with a slight
chance of thunderstorms across much of the region.

Otherwise, marine layer clouds persist across portions of the
coastal waters and some coastal areas early this evening, with the
marine inversion running about 900 ft at vbg and 1200 ft at lax. Low
clouds are forecast to gradually expand along the coast and into the
coastal plain overnight, altho the mid level clouds and any precip
could disrupt the low clouds and scatter them out at times or even
keep them off the coast for a while.

***from previous discussion***
had a couple early afternoon thunderstorms over the area, one that
started in the san gabriel valley and moved southwest into west la
and malibu. A second storm developed near pyramid lake and moved
into the ventura county mtns. There was brief heavy rain with
these storms with ucla reporting .18" in a very short period of
time. However, as expected the storms moved quickly so the heavy
rain had minimal impacts.

Expecting more of the same tonight through Friday with
precipitable waters in the 2" range and decent CAPE and li's. The
storm today held together pretty well after it moved over the
coastal waters which is somewhat unusual during the afternoon but
indicative of how unstable it is. So went ahead and added
overnight convection chances to all areas south of pt conception.

Steering flow starts to shift more to the south southeast Thursday
into Friday as the high pressure system moves east. This will be
less favorable for storms to drift off into the coast valleys and
winds aloft remain pretty strong so again limited potential for
flooding as well. But like today there will be brief periods of
very heavy rain and lightning.

Thursday night a low pressure system about 500 miles southwest of
pt conception will send a couple of vort maxes north into our
area, mainly the western portion, so this could be the best chance
for nocturnal thunderstorms over the coastal waters and adjacent
coastal zones. It also will push the convection north of pt
conception. By Friday afternoon the steering flow will be out of
the south and convective chances should remain confined to the
mountains, antelope valley, and interior slo county.

Some lingering instability over the mountains Saturday could
generate an isolated storm or two but should be much less
coverage than the previous couple days.

It will be warm and muggy the next few days with daytime highs
somewhat dependent on cloud coverage. Overall not much different
from today.

Long term (sun-wed) 18 145 pm.

The high pressure system shifts back west starting Sunday and
strengthens through early next week to nearly 600dm over vegas,
beginning yet another significant heat wave. Models also starting
to show a northerly push beginning Sunday night and peaking Monday
and Tuesday nights which would generate some gusty north winds
and provide an additional warming factor due to downsloping.

Although it doesn't look quite as strong a northerly push as the
last event on july 6, there's a non-zero chance that it could
strengthen and lead to temps that, while still likely cooler than
the last heat wave, could approach those numbers. For now am
capping the valley highs around 108 and coastal areas mostly in
the 90s. Still enough for heat advisories and warnings for much of
the area Monday through Wednesday. Expect an excessive heat watch
to be issued in the next day or two assuming forecasts remain on
track. Gusty sundowner winds expected to start up Sunday night,
then peak Monday night before weakening slightly Tuesday night.

Winds expected to be advisory level each of those nights. Hottest
and driest conditions expected Monday and Tuesday. Not as much of
a northerly push over la county but again that could change.

Looking beyond the 7 day period models not offering much in the
way of relief as the high remains locked in place. There is a
slight onshore trend in the gradients by the middle and end of
next week that should bring some relief to coastal areas but
interior areas will remain quite hot possibly into next weekend.

Aviation 19 0029z.

At 2331z at klax, the marine inversion was around 1300 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 3300 feet with a temperature near
26 degrees celsius.

Moderate confidence at best for the 00z tafs at the coastal
airfields. Low clouds with lifr ifr MVFR CIGS are expected to move
into these airfields from near TAF issuance time at klax and ksmo to
about 10z at kcma. The low clouds should persist thru late thu
morning to early Thu afternoon before clearing toVFR. The timing of
the onset and dissipation of the low clouds and timing between
flight cats may be off + - an hour or two. However, mid and hi level
cloudiness could disrupt the low clouds with periods of scattering
out.

For kprb, kbur, kvny, kpmd and kwjf, there is hi confidence in the
00z tafs withVFR conditions includingVFR CIGS at times thru thu
afternoon.

There is also a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for much
of the area during the period which could affect the airfields with
brief lower visibilities and gusty and erratic winds.

Klax... Moderate confidence overall in the 00z taf. Low clouds with
mostly MVFR CIGS are expected at the airfield from TAF issuance time
to about 20z Thu and again aft about 03z Thu evening. Otherwise,VFR
conditions can be expected. The timing of the onset and dissipation
of the low clouds and timing between flight cats may be off + - an
hour or two. However, mid and hi level cloudiness could disrupt the
low clouds with periods of scattering out. There will also be a
slight chance of high-based thunderstorms thru Thu morning which
could bring brief lower visibilities and gusty and erratic winds to
the airfield.

Kbur... Generally hi confidence overall in the 00z taf.VFR
conditions should prevail thru Thu afternoon. There will also be a
slight chance of high-based thunderstorms thru Thu morning which
could bring brief lower visibilities and gusty and erratic winds to
the airfield.

Marine 18 824 pm.

Small craft advisory (sca) winds are not forecast across the
coastal waters through Sat night, then there will be a 30%-40%
chance of SCA level winds across the outer waters Sun thru
mon. Choppy short-period seas will persist at least through the
weekend.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the coastal waters
through Friday morning.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
Warming temperatures expected Sunday through Wednesday with
heat advisories and or warnings likely. Gusty sundowner winds
expected Sunday through Tuesday nights creating a dangerous fire
weather situation.

Public... Mw sirard
aviation... Sirard
marine... Sirard
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 51 mi48 min 67°F2 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 52 mi93 min SW 5.1 G 6 65°F 1014.8 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 52 mi39 min Calm G 1 68°F 73°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sandberg, CA4 mi76 minSSW 810.00 miFair75°F62°F64%1016 hPa

Wind History from SDB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:22 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:12 AM PDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM PDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM PDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:11 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 PM PDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:15 PM PDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.63.23.73.93.83.42.82.11.51.11.11.42.133.94.6554.63.93.12.41.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:22 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:15 AM PDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:32 AM PDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM PDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:12 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:31 PM PDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM PDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.73.33.743.93.52.82.11.51.11.11.42.133.84.54.954.63.93.22.41.91.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.