Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 11:47 AM   Moonset 1:30 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 820 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Wed - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog. Thu - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - Western portion, nw winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.Sun - W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.

PZZ600 820 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1031 mb surface high was centered 600 nm west of seattle and a 1005 mb surface was south of las vegas.

FXUS66 KLOX 150453 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 953 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
14/834 PM.

Consistent weather expected for the next few days. Coastal areas will continue to see low clouds and below normal temperatures. In contrast, temperatures will be above normal for interior areas, with gusty winds at times, especially across the Antelope Valley.
A slight chance of showers will persist for the mountains each afternoon through Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/914 PM.

***UPDATE***

The weak upper low is slowly moving east and is expected to exit the region late tomorrow. With little change to the overall pattern, except for slight increases in the onshore gradient, marine layer clouds are expected to again extend far inland overnight. Clouds will be slow to retreat on Wednesday, with some coasts seeing little to no clearing. Additionally, temperatures will be similar to what was observed today. Highs will generally be in the 60s for coasts, mid- to- upper 70s for valleys, and around 90 for the deserts. If coastal areas such as Santa Barbara City were to see more significant clearing than expected, temperatures have the potential to be up to 5 degrees warmer than forecast.

Vorticity from the weak upper level low will again yield a 10-20% chance of showers/thunderstorms for the mountains and Antelope Valley tomorrow afternoon. Additionally the low may cause lifting of the marine layer, and produce overnight drizzle in some areas.
Drizzle is most likely for coastal areas of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

No significant changes to the forecast, expect for slight temperature adjustments to trend tomorrow's highs towards persistence, and extending the chance of afternoon showers into the Antelope Valley (based on the latest HRRR guidance).

***From Previous Discussion***

Very little change on tap through at least Friday. A weak upper level low will slowly depart the area through late Wednesday, with weak ridging by Friday. This will bring some steady warming to the interior mountains and valleys, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Friday. On the coastal side of the mountains however, this upper level change should have little affect. While increasing high pressure aloft tends to lower and shrink the marine layer, onshore pressure gradients will be strengthening some at the same time which has the opposite affect.
While the marine layer depth and coverage will unlikely be exactly the same each day, these two factors and the latest stagnant low level humidity projections all suggest that any changes will be small. As a result, temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal on the coastal side of the ranges, with any day-to-day changes owing to the random fluctuations of earlier or later low cloud clearing times.

Onshore wind gusts will increase and expand over the interior areas as they have been each day, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph common (strongest in the Antelope Valley with local gusts to 40 mph possible). Winds could be 5 mph or so stronger Thursday and Friday with the stronger onshore pressure gradients, which may push us into the low-end Wind Advisory category for the Antelope Valley. Elsewhere, winds will be fairly seasonal.

The upper level low will also weakly destabilize the atmosphere through Wednesday. While the moisture aloft is the main limiting factor, there is a little (850mb dewpoints around 8 degrees Celsius). In addition, the convective clouds and moisture currently over southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will move over our area later tonight into Wednesday morning. These clouds could inhibit the convective potential some tomorrow, but if they thin out in the afternoon like the computer models suggest, then this could instead provide an extra moisture boost to the convection potential. As a result, while still unlikely, there is a 20 percent of showers for the typical shower magnets in the San Gabriel Mountains and north Ventura Mountains. While not explicitly in the forecast, there is also a 10 percent chance that any shower grows into a thunderstorm. Lastly, while a very small but non-zero chance, cannot completely discount a few drops or an isolated shower over valley areas Wednesday morning and afternoon.
This is due to the clouds previously mentioned, as well easterly steering flow capable of pushing any showers off the mountains.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/117 PM.

A series of small but potent low pressure systems will push through the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. This will break down the ridging aloft from Friday over the southwest. Another weak upper level low will form 800 miles west of Los Angeles by Thursday and remain parked through Friday. The systems to the north will also draw this low closer to the coast, with a fairly large spread in the ensemble solutions in terms of how fast and how far west it progresses. By Monday or Tuesday, most solutions have the low swinging through the area, with ridging aloft reforming towards the middle of next week. These trends should deepen the marine layer over the weekend, peaking Sunday and Monday when areas of drizzle looks favorable. Cooler conditions are expected as a result. Coastal areas, being cool already, will not notice the change too much. Interior areas however will go from 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday, to below normal by Monday.

AVIATION
14/1637Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 3600 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties with timing of dissipation and formation of stratus.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that MVFR CIGs will not dissipate this afternoon. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be as late as 21Z. Return of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z forecast. Also, there is a 30% chance of IFR CIGs 08Z-14Z.

MARINE
14/807 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception. For Friday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner Waters, winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through Sunday. The only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds late Thursday afternoon and evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Ventura
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Tue -- 01:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:12 AM PDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:21 AM PDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:49 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:55 PM PDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:43 PM PDT     2.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ventura, California, Tide feet

Rincon Island
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Tue -- 01:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:24 AM PDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:27 AM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:50 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:07 PM PDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:49 PM PDT     3.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rincon Island, California (2), Tide feet

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