Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM   Moonset 4:29 PM

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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 923 Am Pdt Sun May 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon - ..gale warning in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight - .
Today - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds, becoming 7 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Tonight - NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Mon - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Mon night - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Tue - NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the in the afternoon. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 11 to 13 ft dominant period 9 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Tue night - NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 11 to 13 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Wed - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft. Thu - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 923 Am Pdt Sun May 5 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 994 mb low was centered in nevada. Gusty to gale force winds will affect the waters into tonight, with gusty winds continuing across the outer waters through the middle of the week.

FXUS66 KLOX 052101 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 201 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
05/114 PM.

A cold storm system has shifted east today, leaving cooler temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds. A warming trend will begin Monday and continue through Wednesday, then little change into next weekend. Gusty northerly winds are expected at times, especially in the mountains and in southern Santa Barbara County.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...05/141 PM.

The storm has passed but it has left behind some cool and blustery winds across the area, especially near the coast as well as the mountains and Antelope Valley. Winds are expected to settle down in most areas overnight, however, gusty northerly flow will continue across the area through mid week and chances are high that wind advisories will be needed most of if not all days, at least for the late afternoon and overnight hours across in southern Santa Barbara County and possibly in the I5 corridor as well.

Temperatures will turn warmer Monday (especially inland) as heights rise and offshore flow creates some downslope warming.
This will also either eliminate or at least minimize any marine layer return. High temps should creep back into the lower 80s across the warmer valleys Monday, and likely mid 80s Tue/Wed as a high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific nudges closer to the coastline. Not quite as warm at the coast which, despite the light offshore flow, will still get a decent sea breeze each afternoon. And with ocean temps still mostly in the high 50s, that sea breeze will cut into the temperatures quite a bit near the coast.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/200 PM.

Still a fair amount of uncertainty for the end of the week into next weekend, though the only impacts would potentially be cooler temperatures than currently forecast and likely a faster return of the marine layer. Deterministic models are favoring a low pressure system dropping into the northern Rockies Wednesday and then retrograding back to the Great Basin Thu-Sat. However, model clusters are mixed but with more solutions favoring a continued warmer pattern with ridging along the West Coast. There should at least be a light onshore trend for the latter half of the week that should nudge temperatures slowly downward. If some of these deeper trough solutions pan out temperatures would be several degrees cooler than expected. But no rain is is expected this week or for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION
05/1924Z.

At 1835Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. There was a moist layer up to 5800 ft.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. Timing of wind changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and +/- 5 kt gusts. There is a 20% chance of IFR- VLIFR conds for KPRB, KSMX, and KSBP 08Z-17Z, and 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs at KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, and KVNY 10Z-16Z.
Gusty W to NW winds will affect much of the region thru this evening with areas of LLWS, turbulence and mdt UDDF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 20% chance of northerly cross winds to 12-18 kt from 02Z-07Z, and a 20% chance of an E wind component of 7-8 kt 10Z-17Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 30% chance of NW wind gusts to 25 kt from 16Z-02Z Mon.

MARINE
05/916 AM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), there is a 70-80% chance of winds increasing to Gale Force levels this afternoon and continuing thru late tonight. Elsewhere and otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (and seas at times) are expected thru Wed night, with a 40% chance of SCA conds (mainly seas) continuing Thu. There is a 20% chance of Gale Force wind gusts across the waters south of Point Sal on Mon afternoon into Mon night, and a 50% chance for all outer waters Tue afternoon into Tue night.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Thu night thru Sat morning.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Thru Wed night, winds are expected to reach SCA levels during the afternoon/eve hours. Seas may remain at or above SCA levels Mon night thru Wed morning, even when the winds decrease. Then, conds should remain below SCA levels Thu night thru Sat morning.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. Expect SCA level winds to increase to gales this afternoon into tonight across the SBA Channel (50-60% chance), from Anacapa Island to Malibu (40-50% chance), and across the western portion of the southern inner waters (50-60% chance).
Elsewhere, SCA conds are expected thru late tonight. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) across the Western SBA Channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours Mon and Tue, with a 30-40% chance of SCA conds during these times in the eastern portion of the SBA Channel and western portions of the southern inner waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Avila
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