Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:16 AM PST (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 249 Am Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 249 Am Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst, a 1032 mb high was centered in idaho, with a ridge extending to a 1029 mb high 600 nm nw of point conception. A weak inverted trough was located along the ca coast. This pattern is expected to change little through Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, CA
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location: 34.74, -121.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 150548
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
948 pm pst Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis 14 755 pm.

Offshore flow beneath high pressure aloft will keep a dry weather
pattern in place through the end of the week. Onshore flow will
establish over the weekend as a trough of low pressure approaches
the california coast. A return of night and morning low clouds
and fog for the coast and valleys can be expected this weekend
into early next week along with temperatures closer to seasonal
norms across the region.

Short term (wed-sat) 14 905 pm.

Offshore flow remains in place beneath a ridge of high pressure
along the california coast. The ridge centered near 20n and 120w
will continue to break down through the end of the week. Offshore
pressure gradients are weakening this evening, but offshore flow
looks to remain in place to start Thursday. Another warm and dry
day looks on tap for most of the area. Temperatures have been
tweaked slightly higher for Thursday in the valley areas as 950
mb temperatures tick slightly higher.

In wind-sheltered areas, a dry air mass in place will allow for
another cold night looks to unfold. Tonight will not be as cold as
the last several nights, but some wind-sheltered locales across
the coast and valleys will see temperature dip into mid to upper
30s tonight. A few tweaks were made to nudge down some valley
temperatures tonight, but overall temperatures were in reasonably
good shape.

A return of low clouds and fog could develop between Thursday
night and Friday, with a better chance on Friday night and
Saturday. With the shallow marine layer depth likely to develop,
dense fog issues will pop up for late week. If anyone is
traveling into or out southern or central california, especially
during the night through morning hours between Thursday night and
Saturday morning, monitor the latest forecasts for updates. If
flying via local airports, check with respective airlines for
possible delays.

***from previous discussion***
offshore flow weakens each day and eventually turns onshore by
Saturday. Probably not a lot of temperature change Thu but cooler
Friday and Saturday with onshore flow returning. NAM still showing
favorable conditions for some marine layer stratus to return
across southern la county Friday morning, then becoming widespread
along the coast north to south Saturday. Probably confined just
to coastal areas through Saturday as onshore flow remains weak.

Will probably see some high clouds floating by at times,
especially late Friday into Saturday.

Long term (sun-wed) 14 144 pm.

Not much change Sunday from Saturday, though we will start seeing
gradients trend offshore as a weak trough passes through the
rockies and surface pressures rise across the great basin.

Probably won't have much impact Sunday but Monday and Tuesday both
the GFS and ECMWF are showing 2-4mb offshore gradients. That's
quite a bit weaker than what we saw with this last event and
support aloft is minimal at best so not expecting any significant
increase in winds during this time. But should be enough to warm
temps back up after the weekend cool down, at least for the
valleys. Uncertain on the impact to the marine layer but the
offshore flow may be too weak to really make any dent in the
stratus. Will see how the models trend with the gradients the next
couple days.

After Tuesday models continue to be all over the place. The 12z
gfs went back to a completely dry solution through at least next
Friday as did the canadian while the ECMWF does have a very weak
system with minimal moisture coming in wed. The GEFS solution
still maintains the mean trough well to the west as late as Friday
so it seems unlikely we'd see any precip until after thanksgiving
but can't rule it out completely, especially since model
consistency has been close to zero the last few days. Odds do
favor some precip no later than next weekend but timing and
amounts are very uncertain.

Aviation 15 0547z.

At 0515z at klax, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based
inversion with a top of 800 ft and a temperature of 23 degrees.

High confidence in cavu tafs.

Klax... High confidence in cavu taf. Any east winds will be less
than 7 knots.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf.

Marine 14 821 pm.

For the outer waters... High confidence in the winds and seas
remaining below small craft advisory (sca) levels through Monday.

For the inner waters north of point conception... High confidence
in the winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday.

For the inner waters south of point conception... High confidence
in the winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday.

Fire weather 14 126 pm.

Widespread minimum humidities between 5 and 10 percent will be
common through Thursday, except some improvement in the higher
terrain and immediate coastal sections Thursday afternoon.

Overnight recoveries will remain extremely poor tonight. Northeast
wind gusts between 25 and 40 mph may continue into the evening, then
weaken 5 to 10 mph through Thursday morning but remain gusty over
the windiest locations. As a result, critical fire weather conditions
will continue across much of los angeles and ventura counties
through this afternoon, and possibly into the evening, with elevated
to locally critical conditions following through Thursday. At this
point, there are no plans on extending the current red flag warning.

An onshore wind reversal is likely Thursday afternoon over the coasts
and santa monica mountains. Improving conditions with slowly
increasing but generally light onshore flow is expected Friday
through Saturday. Offshore winds are expected again Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday, with wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph
possible. There is a 20 percent chance for red flag conditions.

If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable for very rapid
fire spread and extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with
potential fire ignition sources.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Hall mw
aviation... Rorke
marine... Sirard
fire... Kittell
synopsis... Jll sirard
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46259 7 mi47 min 61°F5 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 23 mi27 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 64°F4 ft1019.9 hPa (-1.5)
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 36 mi17 min 65°F4 ft
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 39 mi77 min N 7 G 8.9 58°F 1020.2 hPa (-1.4)
HRVC1 41 mi29 min 64°F 1019.4 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 42 mi50 min 64°F3 ft
CPXC1 44 mi21 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 54°F 1020.6 hPa
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 44 mi29 min WSW 1 G 1.9 56°F 62°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA42 mi79 minE 510.00 miFair44°F31°F62%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from VBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7SE7SE8SE7SE74SW65W7W8W7NW5N4CalmE4E6SE7SE6SE9E5SE6E5SE8
1 day agoSE9SE8SE9SE10SE9E6CalmW63NW6W6W7NW7N7N5CalmSE4SE6SE7SE8E5SE8E5SE6
2 days agoSE9SE8SE9SE10SE9SE6CalmNW5N7NW7NW5NE4N7N6NE4E5SE5SE8SE8SE11SE9SE8SE8SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.