Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:27PM Sunday January 21, 2018 7:56 AM EST (12:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 620 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211140
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
640 am est Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will slide offshore tonight and Monday. A cold front will move
through Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the northwest late next week
then pass offshore next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 640 am Sunday... No major changes needed to current
forecastas we should warm nicely after a chilly start in the
30s to lower 40s. The axis of strong high pressure will traverse
our CWA from west to east today bringing a pleasant day for
late january. Under generally sunny skies, with a few high
clouds from time to time, highs should reach the low to mid 60s
area- wide. Light winds are expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 350 am Sunday... With axis of surface ridge offshore, the
low level flow will become more southerly tonight. Temperatures
will moderate a few degrees with lows by Monday morning in the
upper 30s over most areas, with lower 40s outer banks. Winds
will remain light under clear skies except for some occasional
cirrus.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 4 am Sunday... Mild weather is expected through the
extended period. A cold front will bring a threat of showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. Otherwise dry
conditions are expected for the extended period.

Monday and Monday night... High pressure weakens across the area
as an upper low lifts from the central plains toward the great
lakes while the attendant cold front pushes from the miss river
valley early Monday to the appalachians by late Monday night.

Increasing southerly flow brings low level WAA and expect
increasing stcu across the region through the period. Some
models, ECMWF and NAM especially, suggest enough moisture to
bring a few light showers to the region, mainly southern section
Monday afternoon, spreading across most of the region Monday
night and have slight chance to low end chance pops. Temps
will be very mild with highs Monday in the mid 60s inland,
perhaps upper 60s southern sections, and around 60 along the
coast. Temps Monday night remain mild as southerly flow
continues to increase and expect lows in the low to mid 50s.

Tuesday... A robust frontal system approaches the region Tuesday
and is progged to push across the region Tuesday afternoon.

Models have trended slightly slower with the progression of the
front over the past several runs but the 00z 21 models are in
generally good agreement with the timing. It will be a high
shear low CAPE scenario with models indicating 0-6km bulk shear
up to around 70kt but very little CAPE per the gfs ECMWF while the
nam has a little higher CAPE values to around 500 j kg. Cannot
rule out an isolated storm bringing strong wind gusts but with
better forcing for ascent displaced to the north expect the
overall severe threat to be minimal at this time. Continued very
mild with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 inland but cooler
water temps will hold temps in the low to mid 60s along the
coast.

Tuesday night through Saturday..Broad upper troughing continues
across the eastern CONUS with high pressure across the southern
southern plains Wednesday building into the region through the
end of the work week. Upper ridging builds in Friday into
Saturday with high pressure sliding offshore by Saturday with
return flow bringing milder conditions to the region. Expect
dry conditions with mainly clear skies much of the period.

Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low mid 50s
and lows in the low mid 30s, warming to around 60 Saturday.

Coastal sections will be cooler with highs mainly in the
mid upper 40s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through 12z Monday ...

as of 650 am Sunday... Continued quiet flying conditions
expected for this TAF cycle. Clear skies and light winds will
prevail withVFR conditions expected. A very dry boundary layer
should preclude any fog formation during the early morning
hours.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 430 am Sunday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected Monday
but could see increasing stcu through the day and cannot rule
out periods of MVFR CIGS and an isolated shower late
Monday Monday night. A strong frontal system pushes across the
region Tuesday with a period of sub-vfr conditions and gusty
southerly winds expected across rtes. Pred-vfr expected Tuesday
night through Thursday as high pressure builds toward the
region.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 645 am Sunday... Minimal changes needed to the current
marine forecast. Good boating conditions for late january
expected today and tonight as the axis of the high pressure
ridge moves from west to east across our region. Winds will be
westerly at 5-15 knots, although some gusts to 20 knots are
possible early this morning off the central waters. By this
afternoon and tonight, expect winds to gradually become more
e SE at 5-10 knots. Seas will be around 2 feet today, except 3-5
feet over the central waters early today. Seas will be 2-3 feet
in all areas for tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 430 am Sunday... Good boating conditions continue Monday
with winds around 10 kt or less, gradually trending to S se
through the day and seas around 1-2 ft. Sly flow increases
Monday night and Tuesday ahead of strong frontal system and
expect ssw winds increasing to around 20-30 kt with gale force
gusts possible by Tuesday morning and seas peaking around 6-11
ft Tuesday afternoon. The front pushes across the waters late
Tuesday with winds becoming W NW around 10-20 kt Tuesday night
and early Wednesday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft Wednesday
morning. Winds diminish 5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon but a mid
level disturbance moves across the region Wednesday night that
will serve to increase wind back to 10-20 kt into Thursday
morning before becoming N around 5-15 kt Thursday afternoon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Ctc sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi38 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 44°F 46°F1023.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi56 min W 6 G 6 1023.9 hPa (+1.1)
41063 30 mi116 min WNW 16 G 18 57°F 66°F1023.5 hPa (+0.9)
41159 46 mi26 min 57°F3 ft
41064 47 mi48 min W 7.8 G 12 54°F 57°F1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi2 hrsSW 310.00 miFair42°F37°F85%1023.3 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair38°F32°F79%1024 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW6SW11SW10SW14SW16SW14SW12
G21
SW14SW10SW10SW9SW12SW10W8W3W3W3CalmSW5W3W3SW3W3
1 day agoW6W7NW3SW6SW8SW9SW11SW10SW11SW6SW7SW6SW7SW7W7W6SW7SW7SW4SW4SW4SW5SW8SW8
2 days agoNW17NW14NW14NW14NW12W11W9NW11W11W10W9W8W9W7W9W6W6W7NW7NW9W6W3SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:03 AM EST     1.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:18 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:18 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.51.30.90.60.30.100.20.61.11.51.71.71.51.20.80.40.1-000.30.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:09 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:41 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.310.70.40.100.10.40.71.11.41.51.51.20.90.50.20-00.10.50.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.