Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:03PM Saturday September 23, 2017 4:14 PM EDT (20:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:04AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 332 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 7 ft, building to 9 ft after midnight. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 10 ft, building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 13 ft. Dominant period 16 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas around 13 ft. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers.
Mon night..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 15 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas around 10 ft, subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231919
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
319 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.

Hurricane maria is expected to track slowly off the east coast
early to mid next week. A cold front will cross the area late next
week. Please see the latest official forecasts from the national
hurricane center and local NWS offices.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 310 pm Saturday... High pressure will continue to build
south over eastern nc tonight with mostly clear skies. Winds
west of highway 17 could decouple which would lead to patchy fog
development late. Further east, the pressure gradient will
tighten producing a light northerly breeze inhibiting fog
formation. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s inland and low
70s beaches.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As of 310 pm Saturday... Continued dry and warm with mostly
sunny skies Sunday as high pressure remains over the area.

Winds will increase, especially along the coast, as the
gradient between high pressure to our north and maria off the se
coast will be stronger. Highs again will be in the lower to
middle 80s.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 315 pm Saturday... The big player in the forecast for the week
ahead will be hurricane maria tracking off the coast. There remains
high uncertainty with the exact track of the storm, but there has
been an increasing chance that there will be some significant
impacts along the coast. Eastern nc residents and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from nhc.

Sunday night through Monday night... Surface high pressure and upper
ridge will continue to build in from the north early next week, as
the remnants of jose weakens well off the NE coast. Expect Sunday
night to be predominately dry, but could see some showers pushing
onshore as early as Monday as maria lifts north off the southeast
coast. Expect slightly above normal temps with highs in the mid 80s
inland to upper 70s along the coast. Monday night lows expected in
the upper 60s coastal plain to low to mid 70s along the coast.

Tuesday through Friday... Hurricane maria is currently forecast
to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week. Eventual
track will be determined by several factors including the
strength of the upper ridge and the timing of a shortwave trough
and attendant cold front expected to push across the mid-
atlantic states mid to late week. It is still too soon to
determine specific impacts for eastern nc, which will be very
dependent on the track how close to the coast it gets. There is some
fair amount of spread in the models, but some, like the GFS bring a
strong maria closer to the coast. Regardless of the exact track,
rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely through much of
next week, as large long period southeast swells build.

At a minimum, coastal areas can expect gusty N NW winds close to
tropical storm force, minor coastal flooding, and ocean
overwash erosion will be also possible, with the greatest threat
along the outer banks. At this point can't rule out more impactful
coastal flooding for the southern pamlico sound and sound side of
the outer banks and ocracoke. Residents in low lying vulnerable
areas should closely monitor the forecast.

Continue slight chance to chance pops through mid week, highest
eastern sections. The next frontal system will approach the area
late week aiding to maria pushes further ene offshore.

Temps through the period, near to slightly above normal with
highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s low 70s.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 108 pm Saturday... Main concern is the potential for sub
vfr conditions late tonight in fog low clouds. Looks like winds
should decouple well inland but only briefly as the pressure
gradient tightens late. In addition moisture profiles remain
very shallow. Not seeing a strong signal in the aviation
guidance supporting subVFR so will just include a brief 9-13z
period of possible MVFR conditions due to low confidence but
with a nod toward persistence as we have had 3 consecutive
nights with subVFR conditions. Any fog low clouds should
dissipate around 13z withVFR conditions prevailing the
remainder of the day.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 315 pm Saturday...VFR conditions will dominate through
Monday, though some early morning fg br and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region. Periods of sub-vfr possible Tuesday into Thursday
with isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore as maria
lifts toward the region.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 310 pm Saturday... Hurricane maria swell will continue to
impact the nc waters through Sunday. Current 5 to 8 ft seas will
build to 6 to 10 ft overnight and 7 to 13 ft Sunday. Light
northerly winds through this evening will increase out of the
northeast overnight to 10 to 20 kts and to 15 to 25 kts (highest
southern waters) Sunday, as the gradient increases over the
waters between high pressure to our north and maria well off the
se coast.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 4 pm Saturday... High pressure centered over the great
lakes will build down into the southeast through the period,
while hurricane maria lifts north off the southeast coast.

Increasing uncertainty continues regarding the track of
hurricane maria as it approaches the region as latest model
guidance continues a westward trend closer to the nc coast as
well as continues to slow it down. Mariners and interested
parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts
from nhc. SCA continue for all coastal waters through the
period.

Based on the latest forecast, N NE winds increase to 15-25 kt Sunday
night Mon and Tue as maria lifts northward, increasing to 25 to 30
kt, on the cusp of tropical storm force winds Tuesday night through
Wednesday. The GFS showed significantly stronger winds with its
wind field, but did not buy off on that at this time. Winds will
begin to decrease slowly as maria pulls away from the coast
Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be a long period of very
dangerous boating conditions Tuesday through Wednesday, with seas
peaking close to 20 ft in our coastal waters, and could be possibly
higher depending on how maria behaves.

Dangerous high surf, at least minor overwash, and dangerous rip
currents are almost a certainty.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through Sunday evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

High surf advisory from 6 am Sunday to 8 pm edt Monday for
ncz095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for
amz150-152- 154-156-158.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Rsb
aviation... Rsb jme
marine... Rsb jme


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi45 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 83°F 77°F1015.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi75 min ENE 13 G 15 77°F 1016.2 hPa (-0.6)
41063 30 mi75 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 1016.7 hPa (-0.6)
41064 47 mi67 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 80°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi77 minVar 610.00 miA Few Clouds84°F66°F57%1016.5 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC16 mi19 minNE 410.00 mi0°F0°F%1016.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi21 minE 810.00 miFair84°F66°F57%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S5S5S4S3SW4SW4SW6SW4SW3CalmCalmNW6W3NW3NW7NW4N7N5N10NE7N86E7
1 day agoNW8W3CalmNW7CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW3SW7SW9S9S8
2 days agoSW10SW9SW8SW9SW7SW7W7W7W5W4W5W6NW6NW6NW6NW6W4W3W4CalmS7E73W6

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
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Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:39 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
221.81.40.90.50.30.10.30.71.31.82.22.221.71.30.90.50.30.30.511.5

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:22 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.71.41.10.70.30.20.20.50.91.41.821.91.71.410.60.30.20.40.71.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.