Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:59PM Saturday December 16, 2017 11:42 AM EST (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 4:09PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 807 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming w. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 161418
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
918 am est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the west tonight through
early next week. A complex frontal system and low pressure area
may affect the area by mid to late week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 915 am Saturday... High pres will cont over the region
with mainly sunny skies and cool temps... Highs upr 40s to lower
50s.

Prev disc... Another chilly start this morning with temperatures
in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations. Strong high
pressure centered over alabama will continue to build east
across the carolinas today. High clouds are now well to our
south and we should have a mostly sunny day, but temperatures
will be chilly as weak cold air advection continues. High
temperatures will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Winds have subsided inland and NW breezes should subside near
the coast this morning.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 335 am Saturday... Axis of surface ridge will be over the
eastern carolinas tonight. With generally clear skies, expect
another cold night with most areas in the upper 20s to lower
30s, except mid 30s along the outer banks.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 3 am sat... Weak ridging builds into the area this
weekend through early next week followed by a complex system
moving into the region mid to late week.

Sunday... Weak ridging and sfc high pressure will keep
conditions dry. High pressure moves offshore Sun with
increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching shortwave.

Return flow will bring a warming trend Sun with highs expected
in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday night through Tuesday night... A slightly better chance
of rain expected early next week, though 16 00z global model
suite has backed off on strength of this shortwave as it dampens
moving towards the east coast from the ms river valley. Have
lowered pop's to around 20 percent for the area through this
time frame. Temps expected to be above normal this period with
predominant SW to W flow across the region with highs generally
in the 60s, warmest day on Tuesday where some places may reach
70. Lows will be mild in the 40s inland to around 50 coast.

Wednesday through Thursday... Have raised pop's this time frame.

Tricky forecast for the mid week period, as timing of a
southern stream system ejecting out of the SW CONUS could bring
a good shot of rain across the region mid week. 16 00z
operational ECMWF cmc GFS all have the compact shortwave and
attendant sfc low moving through the SE CONUS Wednesday or
Thursday. Taking a look at the ensemble suite for this system
however, still indicates quite a bit of uncertainty with timing
and strength of this feature. Also, would like to see more run-
to-run continuity amongst models before raising pop's any
higher than low chance at this time. Temps during this period
will remain above climo as heights thicknesses will be above
normal for late december.

Friday... It appears that the potential mid week system will be
offshore by late in the work week, and behind it there is a
fairly good signal that heights thicknesses rise and warmer and
drier pattern takes hold temporarily with building SW atlantic
ridge.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through 12z Sunday ...

as of 645 am Saturday... A few patchy high clouds are being
observed over the far cwa, but generally clear skies expected
today and tonight. High confidence continues forVFR conditions
through this TAF cycle. Winds should diminish with NW winds of
10 knots or less expected for today into tonight with clear
skies.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 3 am sat... High pressure builds into the region over the
weekend but will see increasing clouds Sun in advance of the
next system approaching the region. Rain chances however will be
very low as this system will be quite weak. A better chance of
rain and subVFR expected by mid week as potential stronger
system moves into the area.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 915 am Saturday... Dropped SCA central wtrs as winds cont
to decrease and that trend will cont today with wind dir
becoming more W this aftn.

Prev disc... Based on continued gusts to around 25 knots off the
central waters, have extended the SCA until 16z for the oregon
inlet to CAPE lookout leg. Seas have subsided and are generally
3-4 feet. Model trends are for diminishing winds later this
morning as axis of surface high pressure builds east from
alabama to the eastern carolinas by tonight.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 3 am sat... Winds will be generally SW Sunday through tue
as zonal flow takes hold. Good boating conditions as the winds
will only be in the 5-15 kt range through the period with
generally 1-3 ft seas. Winds increase to 10-20 kt Tue night
ahead of a potential stronger system that moves through mid week.

Seas will increase to 2-4 ft with locally higher seas by tue
night into wed.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ctc
near term... Rf ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk tl
aviation... Ctc tl
marine... Rf ctc tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi151 min NNW 7 G 8.9 38°F 50°F1025.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi43 min NNW 7 G 9.9 1026.1 hPa (+1.2)
41063 30 mi43 min N 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 1025.4 hPa (+1.5)
41159 46 mi43 min 64°F3 ft
41064 47 mi35 min N 7.8 G 14 44°F 64°F1026.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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W7
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi1.7 hrsNNW 910.00 miFair43°F24°F47%1026.1 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC16 mi47 minN 6 mi0°F0°F%1025.9 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi49 minNNW 710.00 miFair44°F24°F45%1025.6 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8SW10W9SW10SW9W6W9N13
G24
NW15N9N12N8N6N7N8N8N8N6N7N7N7N9N9
1 day agoW9W10W9SW7SW6CalmCalmNE3CalmE3CalmNE6NE5NE6NE7NE7NE4N3NE4E4CalmCalmCalmSW8
2 days agoNW12W11
G18
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W10W11W6W3CalmSW9SW13SW17
G22
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SW17W14
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W10W10W8

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:36 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EST     1.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.2-0-00.20.71.21.61.91.91.71.410.50.2000.30.81.21.51.51.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:09 AM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:50 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30-0.10.10.40.81.21.61.71.61.41.10.70.30.100.10.50.91.21.41.31.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.