Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:53PM Saturday April 29, 2017 7:18 AM EDT (11:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:09AMMoonset 10:32PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 657 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Patchy fog early this morning.
Tonight..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 290740
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
340 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the atlantic will continue through the
Sunday producing record or near record highs over eastern north
carolina. A cold front will approach from the west late Monday
and cross eastern nc Tuesday morning. High pressure will build
in behind the front Wednesday. A strong low pressure area will
affect the region late next week.

Near term /today/
As of 245 am sat... A quiet morning with low stratus clouds
streaming across eastern nc and sea fog along the immediate
coastline. Stratus clouds are expect to scatter out by mid
morning... Leading to mostly sunny skies.

Strong ridging aloft and strong high pressure extending into the
carolinas from the western atlantic leading to another hot and
humid condition across E nc today. Low level thicknesses of
1405-1415 m will support high temperatures around 90 degrees
inland and upper 70s/low 80s along outer banks. These temps will
be nearing record territory for the area (see climate section
below).

Short term /tonight/
As of 245 am sat... Quiet weather with S to SW flow of 5-10
knots. Th night will start out mostly clear, then becoming
partly cloudy after midnight. Another warm and muggy night with
lows in the upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/
As of 340 pm Friday... Models remain in decent agreement through
mid week with a upper ridge indicated through Sunday, then more
progressive flow leading to unsettled weather for next week.

The flow will become more amplified late next week with the
models indicating the potential for a strong upper low to affect
the southeast and mid atlantic states. There is much
uncertainty regarding details with this system but there is a
potential for heavy rain and possibly severe weather thu/fri.

Through Sunday night... Ridging surface and aloft will result in
a warm and dry period with temps 10-15 degrees above normal.

Models continue to indicate mainly dry weather this period. Lows
each night in mid 60s to around 70. Highs Sunday in upper 80s
inland with low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

Monday through Wednesday... A cold front will approach from the
w late Mon and slowly cross the region Mon night into early tue.

Temps remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly
inland during the aftn as the front approaches. Most models
continue to indicate a decent coverage of precipitation mon
night/early Tue and will continue likely pops this period but is
noted that ECMWF is less enthusiastic with precipitation
chances. Lingering shra ends from W to E Tue morning with the
front sliding offshore. Highs Mon will again climb well into the
80s then cool into the mid 70s to around 80 Tue behind the
front. High pressure is forecast to build into the area tue
night and Wed with dry weather and temps moderating into the
low 80s inland.

Thursday and Friday... The aforementioned upper low will begin to
affect the area Thu and continue over the area Fri with a
complex surface low evolution forecast over the carolinas.

Uncertainty on details this far out but there is a potential for
heavy rain and/or severe weather Thu night and fri. Cooler
temps are expected with highs in the 70s expected both days.

Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 1 am sat... High confidence of low stratus clouds will
develop through the overnight hours leading to MVFR/ifr
conditions. S to SW winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue through
the night, inhibiting fog development. By sunrise, clouds will
start to erode away... Leading to mostly sunny skies by mid/late
morning.VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period
with SW winds of 10 to 15 knots throughout Saturday. Not even a
sea breeze storm expected Sat as strong high pres will remain in
control.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...

as of 340 pm Friday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday
with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog development. A cold
front will be moving across the area Mon night into early tue
with better coverage of shra and storms with periods of subVFR
conditions possible. High pressure builds in behind the front
late Tue through Wed with a return to prevailingVFR conditions.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/...

as 245 am sat... Latest buoy observations are showing S to ssw
5-15 knots and seas 2-4 ft across the coastal waters. S to sw
winds of 10-20 knots will continue as high pressure dominates
the southeast region. Seas will be 2-4 ft near shore to 3 to 5
ft over the outer waters south of oregon inlet.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...

as of 340 pm Friday... Moderate SW flow of 10-20 kts with seas
around 3-5 ft expected thru Sun night around offshore high
pressure. An approaching cold front will increase SW winds to
20-30 kt Mon through early Tue with low end gales possible
central waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-11 ft by late
mon/mon night into early tue. SW winds diminish to 10-20 kt
tue, briefly become NW around 5-15 kt late Tue night, then back
to southerly 10 kt wed. Seas slowly subside Tue and Tue night,
dropping below 6 ft late Tue night and to 2 to 4 ft wed.

Hydrology
As of 10 pm Friday... The tar river in greenville is expected to
reach moderate flooding, while contentnea creek in hookerton is
in major flood stage. The neuse river in kinston is now at
minor flood stage, and is forecast to increase further to major
flood stage next week. In the NE CAPE fear river in chinquapin
forecast remains in minor flooding. The roanoke river is
forecast to rise over the next several days due to increased
flow out of kerr dam but is expected to remain just below flood
stage.

Climate
Record highs are possible through Sunday as an extremely warm air
mass settles over eastern nc.

Record high temps for 04/29
---------------------------
location temp/year
new bern 90/1974 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 84/1994 (khse asos)
greenville 91/1981 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 86/2002 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96/1914 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 89/1974 (knca awos)
record high temps for 04/30
---------------------------
location temp/year
new bern 91/1974 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 84/1974 (khse asos)
greenville 92/1957 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 86/1957 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 94/1906 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 90/1987 (knca awos)

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bm
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme/bm
marine... Jme/tl/bm
hydrology... Mhx
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi60 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 71°F1022.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi78 min SW 5.1 G 6 72°F 1022.4 hPa (+1.2)
41159 46 mi65 min 72°F4 ft
41064 47 mi70 min SSW 9.7 G 14 73°F 1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi80 minSW 56.00 miFog/Mist72°F72°F100%1022.8 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC16 mi22 minSSW 75.00 miFair with Haze0°F0°F%1023.9 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi84 minSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F71°F88%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S11S12S12S12S11S15SW13
G21
S14S14SW13S12S9S8S10S8SW9S10S8S7SW8S9SW5
1 day agoCalmCalmSW6SW7SW6SW10SW14S14S14S9
G18
S9S12SW11SW10S8SW8SW10S10S10S9S8S10S8SW9
2 days agoW7NW7W8W7W65SW11SW13SW17SW14S12S10S8SW9S9SW9SW9SW8SW9SW8SW7SW7SW6SW3

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
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Sat -- 12:27 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:56 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.32.11.61.10.50.1-0.2-0.20.10.71.31.821.81.510.60.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.121.71.20.70.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.30.91.41.71.71.51.20.70.3-0.1-0.2-00.40.91.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.