Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:46PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 4:19 AM EDT (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Today..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Scattered showers. Isolated tstms early this morning, then scattered tstms late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening, then showers and tstms likely after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 230751
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
351 am edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the northwest today and
gradually move across the area tonight and Thursday. Strong
high pressure will build in from the north Friday through
Sunday, while an area of low pressure develops along the stalled
frontal boundary off the southeast coast.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 300 am Wednesday... Pre-frontal warm sector conditions
expected today with a few stronger tstms possible toward
evening. Models in good agreement with weak short wave energy
moving up along coast from SW this morning, followed by stronger
short wave from NW this afternoon into tonight ahead of upper
trough digging into eastern us. 00z NAM does appear to be an
outlier with convective feedback-type issues which is reflected
in 6 hourly (5-11 pm)rainfall amount of nearly 12 inches over
martin county, thus leaned to gfs ECMWF blend.

With abundant moist and unstable conditions, adjusted
pops weather to reflect thinking of scattered shower isolated
tstm threat mainly along coast early this morning, gradually
shifting inland with sea breeze late morning into early
afternoon, then better coverage of showers and storms over
western and northern sections mid to late afternoon. Higher bulk
shear will accompany short wave moving in from NW and believe
main threat of possible downburst winds will be during evening
hours.

Max temps from lower 90s inland to upper 80s beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 300 am Wednesday... Main change with this forecast issuance
was to adjust pops weather to reflect trend of higher likely
pops gradually spreading NW to SE across area during the evening
with a decreasing trend for inland sections late tonight.

Frontal boundary and shortwave will be moving into area and do
expect good coverage of showers tstms to affect all zones during
the night. Main threat of a few stronger storms with possible
downburst winds will be mainly during evening with higher build
shear. Also added mention of locally heavy rain as pwat values
increasing to over 2.25 inches and some possibility of repeating
cells. Min temps mainly low to mid 70s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 255 am wed... Below normal temps expected through the
period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with
the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast,
though much uncertainty remains regarding this system.

Thursday through Saturday... The slow moving front will continue
to push south through the area Thursday. Scattered showers and
storm threat will continue, tapering off from NW to SE late thu
and Thu night. Strong high pressure will build in from the
north Friday and Saturday, with broad upper troughing across the
area, while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast.

Isolated showers fri, with best chances along the southern
coast. Drier air filters into the area this weekend, with
forecast soundings showing pwat values dropping below 1" inland.

Depending on the track and strength of the developing low off fl
this weekend, could see some showers skirt the coastal areas
but at this time expect bulk of precip to remain offshore. Low
level thickness values and NE E flow support temps several
degrees below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
overnight lows 60-70 degrees.

Sunday through Tuesday... Models continue to show possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week... Though
much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given
how far out in time and varying model solutions lack of run to
run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the fl coast
sat night and sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through wed. The 00z
gfs is slightly weaker faster than previous runs, but moves it
closer to the coast... The 00z ECMWF and cmc are also slightly
weaker and further offshore than their previous runs. Precip
chances increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward.

Models also continue to show the remnants of harvey interacting
with a frontal boundary over the gulf coast region, and pushing
northeast. Alot of uncertainty with how this system will evolve
as well, with the GFS much faster and bringing the remnant
system through the SE us, while the ECMWF is much slower and
keeps most of the moisture west of here.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 06z thu
as of 145 am Wednesday... CurrentlyVFR conditions expected to
prevail into morning except for brief period of light MVFR fog
around sunrise.VFR generally expected rest of TAF period but
there will be an increasing threat of showers tstms and possible
sub-vfr late afternoon through evening. Isolated to scattered
activity will be possible near kewn and koaj this morning and
spreading inland this afternoon, then more organized activity
expected to move in from w-nw this evening ahead of a cold
front. SW winds may gust up to 20 kt during the day.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 255 am wed... Sub-vfr conditions could continue Thu and
thu night, with low MVFR stratus possibly becoming locked in
behind the front with low level NE winds. PredVFR conditions
expected Friday through Sunday, with increasing cloud cover late
sat and Sun as low strengthens off the SE coast.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Latest guidance is in good agreement
with previous forecast of poor boating conditions today due to
pre-frontal SW winds 15 gusting to 20 kt and seas 3-5 feet along
with some long period swell around 10 seconds. Weakening
pressure gradient as cold front approaches waters tonight will
allow winds and seas to gradually diminish but there will be an
increasing chance of showers and tstms.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 255 am wed... A prolonged period of NE winds 10-20 kt
expected behind the front Thursday night into Friday, strong
winds and rough seas developing this weekend and continuing into
next week. SCA conditions likely to develop this weekend and
continue into next week.

A slow moving front will continue to push south through the
waters Thursday, with winds gradually becoming northeast behind
the front. Strong high pressure will build in from the north
thu night through Saturday. NE ene winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4
ft through fri.

Models are still showing the potential for tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model
solutions. The 00z GFS is slightly weaker than previous runs,
but moves it closer to the coast... With the 00z ECMWF slightly
weaker and further offshore than the previous run. Strong E ne
winds and rough seas are expected late weekend into next week.

Though given the uncertainty in how this system will evolve
(track and strength), will cap seas at 6-9 ft for now. Mariners
should continue to monitor this situation over the next several
days.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz095-103-104.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Cqd
aviation... Jbm cqd
marine... Jbm cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi49 min SW 6 G 8 82°F 81°F1012.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi79 min SW 9.9 G 13 82°F 1013.7 hPa (-0.8)
41063 30 mi79 min WSW 14 G 19 83°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.9)
41159 46 mi66 min 84°F5 ft
41064 47 mi71 min SW 16 G 19 81°F 84°F1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi81 minSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F77°F85%1013.8 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC16 mi83 minS 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1014.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi25 minSW 510.00 miFair76°F73°F94%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3NE3SE3S4S8S11S8SW5SW11SW13S11S11S13SW11SW14SW14SW13SW12SW14SW13SW11SW12
G19
1 day agoNE4NE4NE3NE4NE8NE53E8S8S5SE3SE5SE6S5S4S3SE3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW5E8CalmW3CalmNW4CalmSE5E6SE5SE7SE5SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
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Wed -- 06:14 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:44 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.91.510.50.1-0.1-00.41.11.72.12.221.61.10.60.2-0-00.30.91.52

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:37 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:27 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:46 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.61.10.60.2-0.1-0.10.20.61.21.61.91.91.71.30.80.40.1-00.10.511.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.