Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:30PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 7:24 AM EDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:57AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 635 Am Edt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 171028
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
628 am edt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Cool high pressure will build over the region through late
this week. The high will slide offshore over the weekend. A
strong cold front will approach early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 620 am tue... Fcst on track and no changes planned with
below normal temps for a change.

Prev disc... Cool high pres and a very dry airmass will build in
from the NW today leading to mainly sunny skies. High temps
will be mostly in the mid upr 60s... However NE coast may only
reach lower 60s. Pres gradient will remain tight along the cst
with N winds gusting AOA 25 mph beaches much of the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 220 am tue... The high will build a bit closer with winds
becoming light inland. This will allow cooler inland spots to
drop to around 40 with excellent radiational cooling. Moderate
nne breeze will cont coast keeping lows milder in the 50s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 315 am tue... High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the long term with temps moderating back to above climo
by the end of the week, then a strong cold front progged to push
through the region early next week.

Wednesday through Friday... Sprawling high pressure will build
into the region and remain through the end of the week bringing
spectacular weather. Winds will be light northeasterly through
this period with plentiful sunshine expected. Low relative
humidities will spell mild days and seasonably cool nights.

Temps start out a bit below normal with lows in the mid 40s
interior to mid upr 50s beaches Wed morning, then as the week
goes on low lvl thicknesses rise each day with high temps
creeping back above climo with readings 75-80 on Friday. Lows
each night remain near climo as atms remains quite dry with the
high overhead and continued light NE winds.

Saturday through Sunday... High pressure will move offshore next
weekend, and winds will veer a bit more to the east and
eventually southeast. This will mean steadily increasing rh vals
and temps. High temps around 80 for most areas, with lows 50-55
interior to 60-65 coast. Column moisture remains very low so
continued dry forecast with mostly sunny skies.

Monday... 17 00z global model suite (ecmwf GFS cmc) in pretty
good agreement on timing strength of next significant
shortwave cold front moving into the eastern CONUS by early next
week. Ahead of the system, winds become southerly and strengthen
by Monday bringing surge of increasing deep layer moisture into
the region, with increasing clouds and shower chances. Have
maintained the small chance pops for Monday, and later forecast
shifts may consider raising pops as this system looks to be
potent with threat of a period of heavy rain possible.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 620 am tue... High confidence inVFR thru the period.

Dry cool high pres will build in with mainly clr skies as just
some patchy high clouds expected. N winds will gust 15 to 20
kts from mid to late morn thru much of the aftn. As winds become
light tonight temps could get close to dewpts and can not rule
out very patchy shallow fog espcly at pgv late but will not add
to grids yet given such low confidence.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 315 am tue... PredVFR conditions expected through the
long term as high pressure builds into the region. However,
there will be optimal radiational conditions each morning, and
some patchy steam fog may be possible at both kpgv and kewn with
their proximity to rivers.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 620 am tue... No changes planned with gusty nne winds
slowly diminishing today into tonight.

Prev disc... Sfc high will slowly build in from the NW thru the
period with gusty nne winds slowly diminishing. Will cont sca
headlines thru morn then shld see rivers and sounds grad come
down thru the day as winds drop below 25 kts. Winds of 20 to 30
kts today with a few higher gusts this morning will diminish to
10 to 20 kts tonight. Seas of 6 to 10 feet this morning for the
coastal waters will drop to 5 to 8 feet late today and 4 to 7
feet tonight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 315 am tue... SCA conditions look to continue through
Wednesday as NE gradient still producing 15-25 kt winds across
the coastal waters and seas 6+ ft. The gradient relaxes later
Thursday through the weekend with high pressure nearby and thus
n to NE winds 5-10 kt and seas 2-4 ft bringing excellent boating
conditions.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-103-
104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for amz136-
137.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for amz130-
131.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for amz152-154-
156-158.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Tl
aviation... Rf tl
marine... Rf tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi54 min N 13 G 16 60°F 73°F1022.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi84 min N 16 G 19 61°F 1020.8 hPa (+1.1)
41063 30 mi84 min NNE 27 G 31 67°F 1020.6 hPa (+1.2)
41064 47 mi76 min NE 23 G 31 65°F 1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW5
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N17
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1 day
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N4
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G12
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ago
N8
G12
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G12
N5
G10
NW5
G10
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G8
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N4
N4
N3
G6
N5
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NE3
N4
NE2
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NE1
N2
N2
N2
N5
NE3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi86 minNNE 1310.00 miFair58°F46°F67%1021.7 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC16 mi28 minN 1310.00 mi0°F0°F%1022.9 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi30 minN 1210.00 miFair53°F48°F83%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W6NW8NW4W44W4NW4N9
G21
N16
G23
N19
G26
N16
G20
N16
G23
N15
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G24
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G25
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N11N12
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1 day agoCalmN4NE3NW3W5S7SW7SW8SW8SW11S8S6S7S7SW6S6S7S5S5W4S7SW8W4W5
2 days agoN10N10N7N6N7NW7NW4NW7NW4CalmN4N4N4CalmCalmCalmNE3N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:10 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:46 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.20.10.20.61.11.72.12.121.71.20.80.40.10.10.40.91.51.92.121.7

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.30.10.10.30.81.21.61.91.91.71.30.90.50.20.10.20.611.51.81.91.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.