Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:53PM Sunday February 17, 2019 11:39 PM EST (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 5:14AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 937 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 am est Monday through Tuesday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of rain.
Mon..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Rain likely.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of rain.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180224
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
924 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
A boundary to the south will lift back north through the area
as a warm front tonight. A cold front will pass through from the
northwest Monday, then move back as a warm front Tue night
through wed. The front will shift back and forth several times
late in the week, resulting in a continued unsettled weather
pattern.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 925 pm Sunday... A warm front currently located along the
immediate coast this evening will lift north across the area as
a warm front and should be located north of the region shortly
after midnight. This is causing the flow to veer from east to
south. Temps have begun to steady inland and are rising along
the immediate coast as southerly flow begins to develop. Thus
overnight lows (in the mid to upper 40s most locations) will
occur this evening before midnight with coastal locations rising
into the 60s by dawn. Light rain has rapidly developed during
the past 2 hours and have increased pops to likely across the
northern 2 3rds of of the CWA for the remainder of tonight. Qpf
totals should be light though, with one-tenth of an inch or less
expected in most locations overnight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 635 pm Sunday... Scattered to perhaps numerous mostly
light rain showers are forecast to occur ahead of an advancing
cold front Monday morning, with all the showers expected to be
over by 18z as the front pushes offshore followed by a northwest
flow of drier air in the afternoon. Highs are forecast to be in
the low to mid 60s aided at first by prefrontal southerly flow
and warm morning temperatures, then downslope flow and afternoon
insolation as skies clear after the cold frontal passage. Once
again, QPF totals are expected to be light with amounts 0.10" or
less expected.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Mostly unsettled weather expected through
the period, as numerous frontal systems low pressure
areas shortwaves impact the region.

Monday night through Tuesday... High pressure will build in from
the north Monday night into Tuesday, allowing for drier and
cooler air to filter in and provide a break from the rain and
clouds. Temps drop into the 30s Mon night under mo clear skies
and light winds. Tuesday will be seasonably cool with highs
ranging from the low 40s NRN obx to the low 50s south and west.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... As a deep mid-level
trough lingers in the southwestern united states, a moist sw
upper level flow will be present over the SE conus. A weak
shortwave moving up the coast, combined with coastal
front inverted trough developing off the nc coast and warm front
lifting north will be a focus for isentropically driven rain
tue night through Wednesday. The highest QPF and best rain
support continues to be over our northern counties. 17 12z
ecmwf cmc continues to be a bit wetter on Tue night, with gfs
and NAM drier, and will continue to highlight high chc pops tue
night as confidence not yet high enough to mention likelies.

Better consensus that widespread rain occurs Wed as
aforementioned shortwave and weak low pull north with best
moisture lift over the area.

Thursday through Friday... Tough forecast this period, as
wavering front will be nearby, and continued broad SW flow aloft
will mean rain chances each period. Therefore continue to
mention high chc pops. Thursday highs look to be quite warm with
highs in the 70s, then perhaps cooler on Friday if the front can
sink far enough south, though again with timing of front,
temperature forecast is subject to change.

Saturday through Sunday... Somewhat better chc for rain first
part of the weekend, as next low pressure area shortwave will
swing through the ohio valley and bring lift moisture through
the region. Timing of the system this far out is tough, so will
continue high chc rain in the forecast. Temps look to be quite
warm as area will be in warm sector, with highs in the 60s to
70s.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 635 pm Sunday... Though confidence is high that prevailing
subVFR conditions, mainly in ceilings, will persist into
Monday morning, confidence that a long duration ifr event
tonight through Monday morning as depicted in most of the
aviation guidance is lower. Widespread lifr ifr ceilings
spreading into the coastal plain this evening (kinston as been
below 1k ft since early afternoon) should spread across all of
the TAF sites for a period this evening in advance of a
northward moving warm front passing through the area.

Uncertainty develops after midnight as strengthening southerly
flow develops in the warm sector behind the front which would
tend to result in rising ceilings. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation in the low levels overnight supporting persistent low
clouds but not sure they hold at ifr levels. Areas of light
rain are expected to develop in vicinity of the TAF sites after
midnight and should end by late morning as a cold front moves
through the region.VFR conditions will develop in the afternoon
as drier air moves in behind the cold front. A period of llws
is possible this evening ahead of the warm front.

Long term Mon night through Fri ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... Sub-VFR conditions for most of the week,
except for Monday night and Tuesday as conditions are expected
to beVFR under high pressure and partly cloudy skies.

Marine
Short term tonight and Monday ...

as of 925 pm Sunday... Sca's are in effect for the pamlico sound
and the waters south of oregon inlet. A warm front currently
located over the near shore waters this evening will lift north
across the area as a warm front and should be located north of
the waters after midnight. This was causing the flow to veer
from E SE 10 to 20 kt to S SW 15 to 25 kt overnight into mon
morning. SW flow Mon 15 to 25 kt early will shift to the NW 10
to 20 kt in the afternoon behind the cold front. Seas 2 to 4 ft
this evening will build to 4 to 7 ft late tonight and early mon
over the southern and central waters in advance of the cold
front. Winds and seas will briefly drop below advisory levels
mon afternoon but will increase again Mon night as stronger cold
advection occurs over the waters.

Long term Mon night through Thu ...

as of 3 pm sun... SCA conditions quickly redevelop Mon night as n
to NE surge of 15-25 kt develop behind cold front Monday night
into Tuesday with seas 3-6 ft. NE winds and seas diminish below
sca later tue, then veer E to S on Wed and strengthen back to
15-25 kt with SCA likely redeveloping. Winds turn swrly by thur
and diminish to 10-20 kt.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 am Monday to 1 pm est Tuesday for
amz152-154-156-158.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 10 am est Tuesday for
amz135.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Tl
aviation... Jme ctc tl
marine... Jme ctc tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi39 min Calm 53°F 54°F1013.3 hPa (-2.1)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi39 min S 9.9 G 9.9 1012.9 hPa (-2.4)
41159 46 mi39 min 63°F4 ft
41064 47 mi31 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 64°F 63°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi1.7 hrsNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F52°F100%1014.9 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC16 mi43 minN 010.00 miLight Rain53°F53°F100%1013.1 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi45 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F51°F100%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N8NE9N7N5N5N6NE7N8N9NE7NE7NE5NE6NE8N10NE9NE9E6E4E63NW6Calm
1 day agoSW10SW10SW9SW9SW8SW8SW9SW8SW7SW10SW4CalmCalmCalmNE14
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2 days agoSE5S3CalmS4CalmCalmSW5S8S10SW11SW10SW11SW14SW14SW16SW14SW15
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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
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Sun -- 01:43 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.200.51.11.7221.81.510.50.1-0.1-0.20.10.61.11.51.71.61.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:05 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:41 PM EST     1.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.71.21.61.81.81.51.10.70.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.30.71.21.41.51.310.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.