Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Morehead City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:52PM Friday August 18, 2017 3:02 AM EDT (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:01AMMoonset 4:27PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1258 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morehead City, NC
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location: 34.83, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180447
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1247 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure moves off the coast tonight. A cold front
will move into the area this weekend and stall. This front will
move south of the area early next week. High pressure builds
back in by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area in
the middle of next week, with unsettled weather expected to
continue.

Near term through tonight
As of 1240 am Friday... A very humid, but rain-free night over
eastern nc. Latest hrrr does indicate a few showers or possible storms
along the immediate south coast overnight and will continue
with a small pop there. Patchy fog will be possible, mainly
coastal plains where some precipitation fell earlier today. No
major changes to the ongoing forecast at this time.

Short term Saturday through 6 pm today
As of 330 pm Thursday... The warm front mentioned above moves
into our area Friday, with a better chance for more of the area
to see scattered storms. If you take a look at what is happening
to our southwest today near wilmington, this should give us a
good snap shot for our weather Friday. As dewpoints creep into
the mid to upper 70s for more of the area, and highs push the
lower 90s, head indices above 100 are likely. We will continue
to mention the possibility of heat indices near 105 in our hwo.

The shift tonight may have to consider a heat advisory if
confidence grows that we will exceed 105 for a few hours.

Mlcapes around 2,000 j kg and lifted indices around -5 support
the chance for some severe storms Friday afternoon. Spc
continues our area in a general thunderstorm risk but soundings
do show slightly better shear and wind fields than today, with
the warm front moving through.

Long term tonight through Thursday
As of 330 pm Thursday... Unsettled conditions will continue
Friday night and Saturday with the approach of a cold front in
the area, before drier conditions begin Sunday into early next
week. A significant shortwave will drop down mid week into the
area leading to better rain chances by mid week.

Friday night through Saturday... The approaching cold front
will continue to bring an increase of low level moisture and
instability across the area Friday night and Saturday... Leading
to showers and thunderstorms. Instability will be especially
high for Saturday with forecast CAPE values in excess of 3000
j kg and LI value around -9 during peak heating. Will have high
chance pops Friday night and Saturday. A decent mid-level
shortwave may also keep storms going over the northern tier
Friday night and will have high chance pops north and along the
coast Friday night. Overnight lows are expect to range mid upper
70s inland to around 80 degrees along obx. Saturday will be
warm and humid with highs near 90 inland and mid 80s along the
coast.

Sunday through Tuesday... Models continue to show a drier
trends with pops starting Sunday through Tuesday as a mid-level
ridge expands across the area leading to hot temperatures and
less convection as precipitable water values drop to 1.6 inches
or less for a couple of days. There may be a few storms along
the sea breeze, but pops will be below climo through this
period. Expect high temps near 90 degrees inland and around mid
80 along the coast. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to
mid upper 70s along the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday... The mid-upper level ridge starts to
break down as a shortwave drops down from the great lake region
and into the middle-atlantic southeast region on Wednesday, then
cold front approaches the area towards the end of the period.

This will lead to an increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms starting Wednesday into the latter part of next
week. Expect high temps in the mid upper 80s inland and mid
80s along the coast. Overnight lows in the low 70s inland to mid
70s along the coast.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through 06z Saturday ...

as of 1240 am Friday... Anticipate some patches of stratus and
fog at kpgv and kiso where precipitation occurred earlier today.

This lines up well with previous forecast and no major changes
made. A much more unstable atmosphere will lead to scattered to
numerous showers and tstms after 18z at or near all of the taf
sites. Some storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy
downpours into the evening hours before ending after 00z with
loss of heating.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 330 pm Thursday...VFR conditions will dominate most of
the period, except for Friday night and Saturday as sub-vfr
conditions will be possible under showers and thunderstorms
along with locally heavy downpours. A drier pattern will start
Sunday and improve further through the end of the period. Some
early morning fog and patchy stratus may also be possible in
areas that receive decent rainfall through the period.

Marine
Short term through Friday ...

as of 1245 am Friday... Quiet conditions continue on the coastal
waters and sounds with S winds 5-15 knots and seas around 2
feet. A warm front will start to lift north through the waters
overnight into Friday. Winds will then become more SW at 10-20
knots for Friday. Seas will build to 3 to possibly 4 feet on
Friday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 330 pm Thursday... A cold front will approach the area
from the west, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing
winds Friday night SW 15-20 knots and then becoming SW 10-15
knots Saturday. Seas are expected to slightly build Friday night
in response with the increase winds, expect 3-4 ft with possible
5 ft over the outer waters. The cold front is expected to
dissipate over eastern nc Sunday, allowing winds to remain S sw
around 10 knots or less through the period. Seas will start to
subside Saturday night and expect seas to generally be 2-3 ft
through Tuesday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Eh
near term... Ctc
short term... Eh
long term... Bm
aviation... Ctc eh cqd
marine... Ctc eh cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 8 mi45 min S 11 G 14 83°F 82°F1013.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 17 mi63 min SSE 9.9 G 11 82°F 1014.7 hPa (-1.0)
41063 40 mi63 min S 16 G 19 85°F 1015.1 hPa (-1.3)
41159 45 mi50 min 83°F2 ft
41064 45 mi55 min S 7.8 G 12 81°F 83°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC7 mi65 minS 810.00 miFair82°F80°F94%1015 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC10 mi69 minS 510.00 miFair80°F77°F90%1014.8 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC18 mi67 minS 610.00 miFair0°F0°F%1015.5 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC20 mi66 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds77°F77°F100%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmE3E4E5E4S5SE8SE8S8S9S9S7S7S4S4SE6S7S7S7S8
1 day agoN3CalmW5NW3NW5N9N6N8N8NW6NW7N5S8SE13CalmE43E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE336S8S9SW10S8SW9SW10SW12SW10SW7SW11SW6SW7W4NW10N6

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Fri -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:37 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.40.91.41.92.121.81.30.80.40.10.10.40.91.52.12.52.62.52.11.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.10.30.61.11.61.81.71.51.20.80.40.20.10.20.61.21.72.12.22.11.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.