Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morehead City, NC
May 5, 2024 5:02 PM EDT (21:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:10 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM Moonset 4:21 PM |
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 334 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers this evening. A slight chance of tstms, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 334 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Benign winds/seas into the early week but shower and tstorm activity is expected.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMHX 051931 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 331 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 310 PM Sun...Latest satellite and observational trends this afternoon show a messy picture across the Carolinas as a weak wave of low pressure ahead of a mid-level s/w trough migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the NC Piedmont.
Also of note is a weakening surface trough, which has proven to be a reliable focal point for showers through the day, now beginning to rotate back eastward as mean flow becomes southerly to southwesterly this afternoon. Airmass over the region is quite unstable with SPC mesoanalysis showing an uninhibited 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE pre-storm environment, although shear is severely lacking at 20 kt or less. Threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into this evening, with the highest threat focused along the coastal plain where low-level convergence will be maximized. Isolated shower threat will continue along the coastal trough as it swings back eastward.
Shear will remain very weak through the period and no severe risk is expected. Given long skinny CAPEs, locally heavy rainfall is possible in stronger storms but dry antecedent conditions preclude a flash flooding threat.
Coverage will ebb tonight with loss of heating, but very muggy conditions will remain in place more in line with a summer-like pattern. A isolated showers remain possible inland, but modestly better coverage will be near the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks as nocturnal convective takes shape over the waters and threatens beach locales. Lows struggle to drop below the mid-60s inland, upper 60s along the water.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
As of 320 PM Sun...Cold front across eastern Canada this afternoon will gradually push south towards the mid-Atlantic tomorrow with increasingly southwesterly flow setting up across the Carolinas. Moist and unstable airmass will remain in place tomorrow and yet another round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated. Coverage will be enhanced modestly as a stronger shortwave trough, currently over the lower MS Valley, lifts towards the region late tomorrow afternoon. Instability will not be a problem to come by, ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg, but a continued lack of shear will once again preclude an appreciable severe risk. Stronger shear associated with the s/w will work its way into the area in the early evening, but at this point activity will begin to wane with loss of heating and likely fail to utilize the more favorable winds. Convection will evolve in a classic summer pattern, with the first round along the seabreeze advancing inland and a second, decaying round as storms firing across central NC push towards the coastal plain.
Highs will only be a couple degrees warmer than today, in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.
Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.
Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.
Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip chances to around 50% at this time range.
A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass will persist, and the initial impression of this weather pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with potential for a significant event if all ingredients come together. That being said, much can change at this time scale but we will continue to monitor this potential.
The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Mon/...
As of 155 PM Sun...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with iso to sct showers and storms to both the west and east of terminals ahead of a weak wave of low pressure and decaying surface trough, respectively. Convective coverage is forecast to gradually increase through the rest of the afternoon, with the highest coverage concentrated across the inner coastal plain as low pressure continues to lift northeast.
Locally heavy rain could bring brief periods of sub-MVFR conditions, but otherwise predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Convective coverage will wane through 00-03z.
Trend for IFR conditions has continued to step back through today, although signal for at least MVFR cigs across the coastal plain remains strong especially after 06z tonight. Conditions will gradually improve through Mon morning from east to west, although threat of showers and thunderstorms will return by 18z Mon.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Benign boating conditions in place for the waters this afternoon, outside of increasingly isolated shower activity along a coastal trough draped across the western Pamlico Sound, forecast to drift eastward through the period.
Regional observations show southerly winds of around 10-15 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. These conditions will change little through Monday, with winds gradually veering southwesterly as cold front approaches from the north and winds increasing modestly in the evening with a tightening thermal gradient.
Convective coverage increases modestly especially across Onslow and Raleigh Bays after midnight, then waning mid to late morning on Monday.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the coastal waters.
Winds Monday night will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front, and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.
Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas will develop across portions of the coastal waters through Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 331 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 310 PM Sun...Latest satellite and observational trends this afternoon show a messy picture across the Carolinas as a weak wave of low pressure ahead of a mid-level s/w trough migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the NC Piedmont.
Also of note is a weakening surface trough, which has proven to be a reliable focal point for showers through the day, now beginning to rotate back eastward as mean flow becomes southerly to southwesterly this afternoon. Airmass over the region is quite unstable with SPC mesoanalysis showing an uninhibited 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE pre-storm environment, although shear is severely lacking at 20 kt or less. Threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into this evening, with the highest threat focused along the coastal plain where low-level convergence will be maximized. Isolated shower threat will continue along the coastal trough as it swings back eastward.
Shear will remain very weak through the period and no severe risk is expected. Given long skinny CAPEs, locally heavy rainfall is possible in stronger storms but dry antecedent conditions preclude a flash flooding threat.
Coverage will ebb tonight with loss of heating, but very muggy conditions will remain in place more in line with a summer-like pattern. A isolated showers remain possible inland, but modestly better coverage will be near the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks as nocturnal convective takes shape over the waters and threatens beach locales. Lows struggle to drop below the mid-60s inland, upper 60s along the water.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
As of 320 PM Sun...Cold front across eastern Canada this afternoon will gradually push south towards the mid-Atlantic tomorrow with increasingly southwesterly flow setting up across the Carolinas. Moist and unstable airmass will remain in place tomorrow and yet another round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated. Coverage will be enhanced modestly as a stronger shortwave trough, currently over the lower MS Valley, lifts towards the region late tomorrow afternoon. Instability will not be a problem to come by, ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg, but a continued lack of shear will once again preclude an appreciable severe risk. Stronger shear associated with the s/w will work its way into the area in the early evening, but at this point activity will begin to wane with loss of heating and likely fail to utilize the more favorable winds. Convection will evolve in a classic summer pattern, with the first round along the seabreeze advancing inland and a second, decaying round as storms firing across central NC push towards the coastal plain.
Highs will only be a couple degrees warmer than today, in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.
Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.
Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.
Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip chances to around 50% at this time range.
A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass will persist, and the initial impression of this weather pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with potential for a significant event if all ingredients come together. That being said, much can change at this time scale but we will continue to monitor this potential.
The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Mon/...
As of 155 PM Sun...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with iso to sct showers and storms to both the west and east of terminals ahead of a weak wave of low pressure and decaying surface trough, respectively. Convective coverage is forecast to gradually increase through the rest of the afternoon, with the highest coverage concentrated across the inner coastal plain as low pressure continues to lift northeast.
Locally heavy rain could bring brief periods of sub-MVFR conditions, but otherwise predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Convective coverage will wane through 00-03z.
Trend for IFR conditions has continued to step back through today, although signal for at least MVFR cigs across the coastal plain remains strong especially after 06z tonight. Conditions will gradually improve through Mon morning from east to west, although threat of showers and thunderstorms will return by 18z Mon.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Benign boating conditions in place for the waters this afternoon, outside of increasingly isolated shower activity along a coastal trough draped across the western Pamlico Sound, forecast to drift eastward through the period.
Regional observations show southerly winds of around 10-15 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. These conditions will change little through Monday, with winds gradually veering southwesterly as cold front approaches from the north and winds increasing modestly in the evening with a tightening thermal gradient.
Convective coverage increases modestly especially across Onslow and Raleigh Bays after midnight, then waning mid to late morning on Monday.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the coastal waters.
Winds Monday night will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front, and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.
Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas will develop across portions of the coastal waters through Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 8 mi | 45 min | S 9.9G | 74°F | 75°F | 30.10 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 17 mi | 63 min | S 12G | 71°F | 30.14 | |||
| 41064 | 45 mi | 55 min | S 9.7G | 74°F | 72°F | 30.12 | 70°F | |
| 41159 | 45 mi | 37 min | 72°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 7 sm | 28 min | SSE 11G18 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 77°F | 68°F | 74% | 30.11 | |
| KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC | 11 sm | 66 min | S 11G21 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 64°F | 61% | 30.11 | |
| KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC | 20 sm | 65 min | S 09 | 7 sm | Clear | 77°F | 66°F | 69% | 30.12 | |
| KEWN COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL,NC | 24 sm | 68 min | S 11G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 61°F | 51% | 30.10 |
Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:18 AM EDT -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT 2.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:28 PM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM EDT 2.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:18 AM EDT -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT 2.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:28 PM EDT -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM EDT 2.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:06 AM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:20 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT 2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:06 AM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:20 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT 2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0 |
| 3 am |
| -0 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Morehead City, NC,
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