Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday June 20, 2019 12:53 AM EDT (04:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 7:55AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1230 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1230 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure centered near bermuda will shift farther offshore, as a trough of low pressure approaches the coast. A few storms could become severe on the waters Thursday night, as a cold front is forced off the coast. High pressure over the coast Friday will slip offshore this weekend, bringing a return of sw wind.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 200200
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1000 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance and attendant surface cold front will
cross the region late Thursday and Thursday evening. A more stable
air mass will settle over the area Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 955 pm Wednesday...

another weak disturbance in the mid upper level west-southwesterly
flow this evening may lead to a few showers and storms firing as it
cross central nc late this evening into early Wednesday morning.

However, the overall coverage should remain isolated at best.

Otherwise, expect dry conditions will continue overnight with
nocturnal stabilization taking over with low temps by Thursday
morning expected to generally be around 70 lower 70s. The current
mcs moving eastward across tn ky is expected to weaken as it moves
eastward and into the southern appalachian later tonight. Given the
west-southwesterly flow, not expecting much if any low stratus and
fog overnight as well.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 410 pm Wednesday...

a S W crossing the central plains this afternoon this evening will
continue to traverse ewd and gain some amplitude as it crosses the
tn lower oh valley Thursday afternoon. This system will enhance low
level SW flow over central nc, resulting in a low level jet of 30-
35kts by late thu.

The lack of low clouds Thu morning will permit strong insolation
during the day, warming temperatures into the 90-95 degree range.

This should support low level lapse rates around 9 degree c. Later
in the afternoon, heights falls associated with the S W will aid to
trigger scattered convection. These storms will likely feed off an
unstable air mass with mixed layer CAPE values 1200-1800 j kg. The
low level jet will yield bulk effective shear values 30-35kts, quite
respectable for this time of year. This suggest a likelihood of
organized convection, mainly in the form of banded convection and
probable damaging straight-line wind threat. This strong severe
convective threat appears highest in the 3 pm-7 pm time frame across
the piedmont, and over the sandhills and coastal plain between 6 pm-
10 pm.

The convection will gradually diminish in coverage and intensity
after 03z, with just a few showers probable along and east of i-95
after 2 am. Just a touch "cooler" Thursday night with overnight
temperatures 65-70 NW and the lower 70s se.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 255 pm Wednesday...

Thursday evening convection and associated effective front should be
well east of the are by Friday morning, though the mean frontal zone
may struggle to completely clear the area as shortwave ridging
quickly sets up over the deep south and moisture instability begin
to creep back north into nc. High pressure between the ridge and a
blocked low over the northern atlantic looks to build in from the
north on Saturday, resulting in more stability over the northeast
cwa relatively to the greater instability axis nosing up through
southwestern nc. This instability gradient will be key as models
indicate convective disturbances emanating over the central u.S.

Riding the ridge and passing nc from the nw. Still hard to
determine favored areas for qpf, but the trend should be for better
pops south and west Saturday to north and east Sunday and Monday. A
shortwave lifting through the midwest will briefly tamp down the
southern ridge, though guidance is a little further north with the
track and thus yields a little less forcing here Tuesday. The ridge
then builds back in earnest over the central us and reestablishes a
west-northwest flow regime, consistent in GEFS and eps mid-level
height anomalies.

Highs will briefly knock back to the mid upper 80s northeast on
Saturday, but the low to mid 90s will return by Sunday, with Monday
the warmest day in the period as low-level thicknesses exceed 1440m

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 745 pm Wednesday...

lingering isolated convection will continue to diminish as bl cools
and stabilizes. Mean flow will become increasingly from the sw
overnight, which will preclude the development of widespread low-
clouds stratus overnight.

The approach of a mid level S W and attendant sfc cold front will
initiate a band of strong convection late Thu afternoon-thu evening
across central nc. Expect MVFR ifr parameters in close proximity of
the convection with wind gusts 40-50kts and some hail possible.

The sfc cold front will cross central nc Thu night.VFR parameters
expected Thu night through Friday night. The atmosphere will become
moist unstable this weekend into early next week. A building upper
level ridge to our west will place central nc in a NW flow regime
aloft. Perturbations in this flow interacting with the unstable
atmosphere over our region will sustain clusters of convection late
in the weekend into early next week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Bsd wss
near term... Bsd
short term... Wss
long term... Bls
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi60 min 80°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 87 mi60 min SSW 14 G 21 80°F 78°F1009.7 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi62 minSW 810.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1008.6 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi61 minS 1010.00 miFair79°F75°F88%1007.7 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi58 minSW 910.00 miFair78°F72°F83%1009.6 hPa

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Last 24hrS5SW4E3S7SW5CalmSW6SW6W6W9W9SW104SW10W10
G18
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1 day agoS7SW8SW6SW5SW4CalmCalmSW5SW8SW8W10W8S7S64S12S10
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2 days agoSW8SW7SW5S6SW5SW6SW5SW9SW6SW7SW75W8SW11S10
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.60.91.21.41.51.41.20.90.60.30.20.20.40.70.91.11.21.110.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.50.711.11.21.110.70.50.30.20.20.30.50.70.90.90.90.80.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.