Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:16 AM   Moonset 3:21 PM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1216 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1216 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Benign marine wind and sea conditions will continue thru this weekend. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast thru early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers and Thunderstorms Sun thru Mon.

FXUS62 KRAH 041728 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 127 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the area through Sunday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will stall across the area through tonight, before lifting north into Virginia early Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 933 AM Saturday...

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to move north- northeast across a semi-stationary front extending along the southern, western, and far northern Piedmont this morning. A pocket of enhanced dew points over the southern Piedmont have fed some weak instability promoting continued lightning activity over Stanly, Cabarrus, and Union counties. Elsewhere in this corridor, stable conditions have mostly precluded thunder. Regardless, a swath of >1.6 inches of PWAT extends through this region, which has allowed for brief heavy downpours and associated isolated pockets of higher rain rates. Additionally, the mean-layer flow is light and oriented quasi-parallel to the frontal boundary promoting slow, n-s moving cells. As such, we've seen some training (and hints of backbuilding)
which has prompted a few flash flood warnings this morning.

An additional series of weak perturbations aloft will traverse over central NC through this evening promoting continued scattered showers and storms. While areas south and east of Raleigh may stay dry through noon, high-res guidance does suggest an uptick in coverage over the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain early to mid afternoon. Some clearing is already occurring in that vicinity which should enhance instability some later today. Additionally, the plume of anomalous PWAT should extend further east in this period as well. Models do also simulate a weak sfc wave moving through the Sandhills/central Piedmont this afternoon which could also enhance coverage in this vicinity later today/tonight.

Given the slow n-s oriented storm motion embedded within an anomalously moist environment, can't rule out continued chances for isolated instances of flash flooding continuing through tonight.
Don't think we'll see widespread flooding by any means, but given tall-skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud depths >10,000 ft, and mean- layer flow conducive to slow-moving cells and potential training, isolated instances of flash flooding (especially urban areas) seems plausible today and tonight. Additionally, a stronger vort max currently over GA will ride over central NC late tonight which should continue to promote higher chances for showers and a few storms through early Sunday morning. However, given weak shear not expecting any severe storms to develop today or tonight.

Temperatures today will range between the lower to mid 70s along the NC/VA border (which should stay north of the boundary and locked into cooler enely sfc flow) and lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Warm overnight lows in the mid 60s are expected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 AM Saturday...

The quasi-stationary front sagging across northern portions of the forecast will retreat north early Sunday, leaving all of central NC in the warm sector. The increasingly sheared shortwave trough will exit east of the area during the early afternoon.

Ongoing scattered convection Sunday morning within the continued anomalously moist PWATs should experience some re-newed vigor during the afternoon as weak diurnal buoyancy flares up. Continued weak shear will deter any severe potential. Rainfall amounts will be more equitable Sunday, with 0.2-0.3" expected area-wide.

Under mostly cloud skies, highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s SE. Convection should largely dissipate as BL nocturnally cools and stabilizes. Mild overnight temps in the 60s with stratus likely to re-develop across the area as moisture remains high.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 250 AM Saturday...

The extended forecast will feature a continued chance of unsettled weather to start the week Mon, followed by somewhat drier and hot temperatures by the middle of the week. A potent late-week system/trough looks to increase storm chances again by week's end.

On Monday, models continue to show a shortwave over the TN valley tracking east across the region in the afternoon/evening, before exiting along the coast by Tue morning. A surface Piedmont trough will be in place and combined with 200-percent of normal PW's should favor another day of scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms, maximizing during peak heating. Instability is between 500- 1000 J/kg but shear is weak, so severe chances are not expected, though slow-moving storms could bring heavy rain. Activity should wane overnight with loss of heating and as the trough slides toward the coast. Highs should hover in the low/mid 80s with higher rain chances and cloud cover.

As the trough moves to our east Tue, weak ridging starts to build in, although the CMC/GFS show a weak perturbation riding along the ridge. With a lack of large-scale forcing, confidence on coverage of storms, if any, is low, such that storm activity should be isolated/scattered in nature and focused along differential heating boundaries and/or the sea-breeze. Highs should warm to the low to upper 80s.

A drier pattern still appears to be favored midweek Wed and part of Thu as ridging and southwest flow builds back into the region. This will also be when the airmass will warm quite a bit with a lee trough setting up east of the Appalachians and low-level thicknesses well above average and highs some 12-15 degrees above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. The NBM still indicates a 60-80 percent chance of 90 or greater maxT values across portions of the Sandhills, Triangle region, and Coastal Plain during this period. Heat index value could reach the mid 90s over these areas, making for an early taste of summer. While this period looks drier, most guidance shows a developing trough over the upper MS valley Thu, with solutions indicating a decent plume of moisture tied to a perturbation advecting ahead of a cold front draped over the OH valley. This would favor better chances of isolated/scattered storms Thu aftn/eve with higher instability coupled to higher shear.

Although model solutions diverge by late in the week with a frontal system location, there is broad consensus that chances of storms appear to remain elevated to close out the week as the trough slides closer to the TN/OH valley and Great Lakes region with instability/shear still favorable over the Carolinas.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 127 PM Saturday...

Under anomalously moist conditions, LIFR ceilings persist at KINT/KGSO this afternoon. Elsewhere, terminals have largely scattered to VFR with some clearing of the cloud shield. Scattered showers and a few storms will continue to stream from south to north through early Sunday morning. If any heavier cells interact with our terminals, brief periods of gustiness and sub-VFR conditions are likely. As we progress into early Sunday, additional scattered showers and a few isolated storms will be possible as well. LIFR to IFR ceilings are then likely to sock back in across central NC starting around 03Z and persisting through early to mid Sunday morning.

Outlook: MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely to sock back in Sunday and monday night with additional scattered showers/storms possible.
Drier conditions are expected mid-week.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
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Sat -- 12:10 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:38 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Sat -- 01:08 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:36 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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