Wednesday, March22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:36AMMoonset 1:11PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 309 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 309 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build southward into the mid-atlantic states through Thursday, then will move offshore for the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the waters on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 222355
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
755 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Cold high pressure will build into the region from the north
tonight through Thursday. Warmer conditions will arrive
this weekend as the high shifts offshore into the the atlantic.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 250 pm Wednesday...

an upper level ridge over the central u.S. And a l/w trough along
the eastern seaboard will funnel cold dry air into central nc
tonight. This drier air already made evident by sfc dewpoints in the
teens across the western piedmont at 18z. This drier air will
continue to spread south and east through this evening.

Orographic induced high clouds will slowly fade/dissipate through
early evening as the atmosphere aloft dries out and the winds field
weakens. Sfc winds will remain 4-8kts after sunset, though should
decouple after midnight. With the cold dry air mass in place and
near calm sfc winds, should see temperatures drop into the upper 20s-
lower 30s overnight. Patchy frost possible in the well sheltered
areas though most places will see little if any frost due to the dry
low level air mass.

Short term /Thursday and Thursday night/
As of 250 pm Wednesday...

Thursday, 850mb thermal trough overhead signals a day of well below
normal temperatures. While skies will be sunny, the cold dry air
mass deposited by the high pressure system will yield MAX temps in
the low-mid 50s, a solid 10-12 degrees below normal.

Thursday night, l/w trough will lift to the NE while the upper ridge
will extend across our region. This set-up will maintain mostly
clear skies and chilly overnight temperatures. Under clear skies and
a light wind regime, temperatures will quickly fall after sunset
with overnight temperatures generally near 30 to the lower 30s with
the coldest temperatures across the far northeast piedmont and the
northern coastal plain.

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/
As of 305 pm Wednesday...

expect above normal temps and below normal precip chances at least
into Tuesday, with high confidence. Divergence in model
solutions beyond this time leads to increased uncertainty tue

Fri/sat: deep troughing featuring a closed low over SE co early fri
will continue to build downstream ridging over the gulf into the mid
south and southeast heading into the weekend as it tracks slowly
eastward into the S plains, while surface high pressure along the
east coast shifts east out over the ocean. A batch of elevated
moisture now over the n/c plains is poised to ride atop the ridge
fri, bringing some mid and high cloudiness, but otherwise the column
will be sufficiently dry and stable for a precip-free forecast and
partly to mostly sunny skies, dominated by scattered to broken flat
cumulus, within light but long-fetch onshore-directed low level
atlantic flow. Thicknesses start out a bit below normal Fri then
rise through fri/sat, indicating highs of 64-71 Fri and 71-76 sat,
with lows of 46-50.

Sat night-sun night: the aforementioned deep low will move from the
mid miss valley Sat evening northeastward with a negative tilt as is
opens up over the great lakes region Sun night. This system will be
reflected at the surface as an occluding front passing to our nw,
dragging only a weak trough into n/w nc, so we'll stay in the warm
sector of this system as weak ridging begins to build in anew from
the SW by Sun night. Low level moisture transport will steadily
increase through this period, as pw surges from the SW to over 1
inch, focusing on the W CWA Sun morning before shifting east to
central and E nc late Sun through Sun night, corresponding with
passage of the broadening mid level trough axis and weak dpva, as
well as a zone of enhanced upper divergence and erosion of the 850-
700 mb cap. With minor changes to delay onset, will keep the trend
to good chance pops Sun morning, spreading east through Sun night,
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows in the low-mid 50s, highs
70-78 sun, followed by lows in the mid-upper 50s Sun night.

Mon-wed: the overall pattern becomes increasingly active, wavy, and
progressive next week. The open wave will move ene through the
northeast states then offshore to the ese, as a mostly phased trough
shifts eastward through the E conus. The GFS greatly amplifies the
northern portion of this trough over the NE on wed, while the ecmwf
is weaker with a later amplification over the NW atlantic late in
the week and, as a result, it builds ridging back into the gulf
states and southeast from the west on wed. The result is a cold
frontal passage and cooler temps Wed with the gfs, and much warmer
temps Wed with the ecmwf. Given the dominance of the southern
stream, with less polar air injection through mid week, will lean
toward the ECMWF and keep temps above normal. Will have low chance
pops over the SE on Mon near the sea breeze, then better chances
areawide Tue as the trough axis moves through. Dry/warm wed. -gih

Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/
As of 755 pm Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: very high confidence ofVFR conditions through
the TAF period with winds out of the northeast for much of the
period, potentially shifting to east southeasterly very late in the
forecast period. Skies will remain mostly clear through the period
and fog or low stratus will not be a problem overnight.

Long term: mainlyVFR conditions until late in the weekend when the
next storm system approaches from the west bringing a chance for
rain and adverse aviation conditions.

Rah watches/warnings/advisories

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Ellis

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi41 min 1022.7 hPa
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi59 min NNE 2.9 G 6 60°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi37 minN 410.00 miFair56°F30°F39%1024 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi35 minN 510.00 miFair57°F34°F42%1023.4 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair53°F25°F35%1025.6 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi36 minNE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F26°F29%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----S4N15
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS7SW7SW6SW7SW7SW8SW7W5W5W9W8W8W75W7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4Calm--W10

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Wed -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:17 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:46 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:31 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Wed -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:15 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.