Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 7:03 AM EST (12:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 437 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Today..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 437 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal trough just off the carolina coasts and an approaching cold front from the northwest will combine to produce light pcpn late this afternoon thru tonight. High pressure will follow and slowly build in from the west Wednesday thru Friday. At the same time, low pressure will pass just south and east of the area Wed night thru Thu with stratiform rains and embedded heavier showers possible along with sca conditions possible. A strong cold front will approach from the west during Sat and will sweep across the local waters to well offshore by late Sat night. Strong, dry and cold canadian high pressure will follow Sunday thru early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 211201
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
700 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will drift offshore today. Meanwhile a weak area of
low pressure will develop off the florida coast, and then track
quickly northeastward along the southeast coast tonight. A cold
front will move through the area on Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 340 am Tuesday...

surface high over the area this morning will shift offshore, in
advance of a northern stream trough and attendant cold front
progressing SE into the ohio and tn valley. Meanwhile, the southern
stream shortwave trough over the central gom this morning will lift
northeast across the florida peninsula today and then up along the
se coast late this evening and tonight. Associated weak spin-up of a
low pressure area will move NE up the SE coast overnight, remaining
well offshore. Brief surge of low-level moisture transport in
advance of this southern stream wave, coupled with strengthening
ascent in the jet entrance region, will yield yet another quick
hitting and light precip event across central nc this evening and
tonight. Bulk of measurable precip is expected to remain along and
east of us 1, where low-level moisture flux will be strongest, with
qpf amounts ranging from a trace across the western piedmont to a
tenth of an inch across the coastal plain counties.

Although modulated by a thickening cloud cover, the southerly return
flow will support warmer temperatures than yesterday with afternoon
highs ranging from mid upper 50s across the NW piedmont to lower mid
60s se. Much warmer overnight lows in the lower 40s NW to near 50
se.

Short term Wednesday and Wednesday night
As of 350 am Tuesday...

aloft, a lead shortwave trough now over the cntl gom will be lifting
newd through ERN nc and va Wed morning, while another pair of
shortwave troughs now amplifying sewd across the NRN plains and
intermountain west, respectively, form and cause a positively-tilted
trough to edge ewd from the middle atlantic states swwd to the cntl
gom.

At the surface, a cold front now stretching from s-cntl ontario swwd
through the upr great lakes, then wwd into across the cntl plains,
will progress sewd and lie INVOF the cntl appalachians by 12z wed,
where it will be slowed and subsequently arc swd in backdoor fashion
through the SRN middle atlantic states late Wed and Wed night.

After a lingering (slight) chance of rain Wed morning over the nrn
coastal plain, in association with the lead shortwave trough
forecast to lift newd from the gom, wnwly deep layer flow will favor
drying clearing wed. It will otherwise remain mild ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, with high temperatures exactly where they
should be relative to the 30-year avg - upr 50s to around 60 degrees
over the NRN piedmont, and 60s elsewhere. Lows should be in the 30s,
coldest north, where relative calm and clear will support good
radiational cooling conditions. Increasing mid-high level moisture,
downstream of the next shortwave trough lifting newd from the gom,
will meanwhile stream into SRN and sern nc and favor lows in the
upper 30s to near 40 degrees there.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 400 am Tuesday...

little change needed to the long term forecast. Medium range
guidance remains in relatively good agreement with the planetary
scale pattern, which is forecast to be a stable one consisting of a
persistent mean ridge centered near baja ca and another strong ridge
extending from the w-cntl n. Atlantic nwwd through the davis strait
and to the north pole, the latter of which will cause a relatively
strong negative nao pattern to develop. Between these two ridges,
and locked in place by the negative nao, a high-amplitude, longwave
trough will become established from near hudson bay swwd into the e-
cntl gom mid-late week, and then reload this wknd. Numerous
shortwave perturbations are forecast to round the WRN noam ridge and
amplify into the base of the ERN noam trough; and details regarding
the timing and amplitude of these shortwave troughs --and their
interaction with a persistent frontal zone draped from the ERN gom
newd along and offshore the sern us coast-- remain in the model
guidance with respect to the timing and wwd influence of at least a
couple of episodes of cyclogenesis from the fl peninsula newd along
the offshore frontal zone.

Otherwise at the surface, cp high pressure will expand across the
middle atlantic states and carolinas through the end of the week. A
reinforcing and moisture-starved, NRN stream cold front is then
forecast to sweep across nc Sat night-sun, with another cp high to
follow for sun-mon.

Sensible weather conditions are consequently forecast to be mainly
dry, with generally below avg temperatures except for in a briefly
mild, pre-frontal airmass on sat. As indicated last night, the
wavelength of the larger scale pattern and associated breadth of the
ern us trough would allow for one or more of the aforementioned
shortwave troughs to amplify strongly and perhaps briefly close off
from the sern us to the gom, which would in turn favor a wwd jog in
the low level frontal zone and associated surface waves, and wrn
extent of precipitation into the carolinas, most likely on Thu and
sat. Indeed, the 00z 21st guidance has trended in that direction for
thanksgiving day; and if these trends continue, current slight
chances of precipitation will need to be increased for the SRN and
cntl coastal plain on thu, with continued dry conditions elsewhere.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 700 am Tuesday...

sfc high pressure over the area this morning will drift eastward and
offshore throughout the day. Resultant sely return flow will lead to
gradual moistening and broken overcast ceilings between 3 to 5kt
during the mid to late afternoon. Low-level moisture advection in
advance of a sfc low that will move northeast off the SE coast
overnight, will support the potential for MVFR ceilings in light
rain late this evening and overnight, especially at the eastern
terminals(krwi and kfay).

A cold front will cross central nc Wednesday. Cold dry air advection
will quickly scour out any sub-vfr ceilings Wednesday morning.VFR
parameters should prevail across central nc Wednesday afternoon
through Saturday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Cbl
near term... Cbl
short term... Mws
long term... Mws
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi45 min 1022.3 hPa
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi73 min S 2.9 G 2.9 33°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi71 minENE 49.00 miFair31°F28°F92%1023.9 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair31°F30°F96%1023.8 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi67 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F26°F94%1025.2 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair31°F30°F96%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN5NE8CalmNW5N34CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4
1 day agoNW9NW11
G19
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NW15NW7NW8
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NW7N9N6CalmCalmN5N4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--CalmSW5SW7SW9SW13SW11SW12
G20
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SW11SW10SW7S5S7S11
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SW11SW10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Tue -- 04:17 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:17 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.711.21.31.21.10.90.70.50.40.40.50.81.11.31.41.51.41.210.80.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:15 AM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:35 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:47 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.60.80.9110.90.70.60.40.30.30.40.60.811.11.21.110.80.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.