Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 1:49 PM EST (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:23PMMoonset 2:41AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 915 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..E winds 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 915 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure building in from the west will move off of the outer banks on Wednesday. Low pressure will intensify as it tracks across the southeast, moving northeast across the carolinas Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the waters next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 181638
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1140 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the eastern united states through
Wednesday. A strong storm system will move slowly east through the
central and eastern united states Thursday through Friday night,
bringing unsettled conditions to our area. This storm system will
move off the east coast early Saturday, then high pressure will
build over the region Saturday through Sunday.

Near term today through tonight
As of 950 am Tuesday...

little to changes needed to the forecast this morning, with only
minor tweaks added to match in-situ observations. Will be primarily
a temperature wind forecast challenge today and tonight with high
pressure in control. -jjm
previous valid discussion...

another quiet day ahead. The mid level low over quebec new england
will kick further ene today, allowing the mid level shortwave ridge
extending from N fl NW into the midwest to shift over the carolinas,
corresponding to the surface high drifting from the great lakes to
the mid atlantic region. Expect only a few high thin clouds at most
within a sinking and low-pw air mass. Thicknesses are likely to be
near normal or perhaps slightly below in the ne, favoring highs from
around 50 NE to the mid 50s sw.

The mid level shortwave ridge will gradually dampen as it moves
overhead and to our E this evening tonight, while the surface high
holds over the mid atlantic coast. Skies should become fair tonight
as a deamplifying wave now moving into ar moves into the carolinas,
bringing increasing high clouds. Expect lows near to slightly below
normal given the thin nature of any clouds and the weak to calm
surface winds. Lows 28-33. -gih

Short term Wednesday and Wednesday night
As of 300 am Tuesday...

during this period we'll begin to see the influence of a
strengthening mid level trough traversing the central conus. The
southern stream low now deepening over the az nm state line will
cross tx la through Wed night, and the injection of energy from the
faster northern stream will result in a deep, full-latitude trough,
located just W of the miss valley by daybreak thu. Tonight's
aforementioned weakening minor wave will shift NE of central nc
early wed, but another perturbation will eject out of the southern
stream low and track NE over the E carolinas Wed night, at the same
time as the surface high shifts off the coast, inducing a moist low
level flow from the E and SE along with coastal inverted trough
formation. All of this will result in increasing cloudiness from the
s over central nc Wed afternoon into Wed night, along with a risk of
a few sprinkles or showers over SE then E sections Wed evening and
overnight as moist isentropic upglide strengthens and deepens
through the 285k-295k depth. Expect a trend to overcast skies late
wed night. Highs Wed should be 51-58 with near to slightly above
normal thicknesses. The increase in clouds will keep temps up wed
night, yielding lows of 38-47, warmest se. -gih

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 320 am Monday...

all the weather is front loaded in the long term as a low pressure
system approaches from the southwest on Thursday, supported by a
deep upper level trough spanning the central CONUS from north to
south. At this point, this looks like primarily a heavy rain event.

Temperatures are too warm to have any winter p-type problems. As far
as thunder is concerned, forecast soundings are largely capped
throughout the event, especially on Thursday as surface high
pressure sits off the coast and helps create an in-situ damming
situation across the NW piedmont. This will keep temperatures lower
in this area with low 50s expected vs. The low to mid 60s across the
southeast counties. With heavy rain once again the primary threat, a
storm total precipitation of 1.5 to 2 inches could once again bring
rivers to flood stage. One potential caveat to this scenario is that
much of the strongest convection appears to head east of the cwa.

The other is the potential for a large dry slot to develop and move
into central nc, thus limiting rainfall totals.

Rain will wrap up by Saturday morning and conditions turn much drier
through the end of the forecast period. Expect skies to clear and
high temperatures to hover near normals for this time of year with
max temps in the 50s with lows in the 30s.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 1140 am Tuesday...

vfr conditions are expected to persist across central nc for at
least the next 24 hours as high pressure remains dominant. Winds
will veer from northerly to more easterly Tuesday afternoon before
diminishing this evening.

Looking beyond 18z wed:VFR conditions will hold through Wed morning
as surface high pressure settles over the region. As this high moves
east and off the mid atlantic coast on wed, the onshore-directed low
level flow from the SE will bring a w-to-e trend to MVFR then
ifr lifr CIGS Wed afternoon and night. Increasing moisture and a
deep upper trough approaching from the west will bring high rain
chances, poor aviation conditions, and strong shifting winds thu
through fri. Improvement is expected Fri night withVFR conditions
ruling Sat as the storm system moves off the coast and high pressure
builds into the area. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Jjm hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Jjm hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi80 min ESE 4.1 G 7 56°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi58 minENE 710.00 miFair56°F28°F34%1020.5 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi56 minE 410.00 miFair54°F30°F42%1020.1 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi3.9 hrsNE 910.00 miFair47°F30°F52%1023.4 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi57 minVar 310.00 miFair53°F30°F41%1019.7 hPa

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Last 24hrW7W6NW7NW4W4W5CalmW3--N6Calm3--NW3W3N5N4--3NE5NE12NE11E8E7
1 day agoW12
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W5W3W4W5W6CalmW5W3W3W4CalmW5W5W4SW3W5NW4W7W7NW7
G18
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2 days agoW4W5W7SW3W3W5CalmSW6S3SW5SW7W8W7SW7W7SW8W9W8W7W8W11
G19
W9W8W14
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Tue -- 02:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:06 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:39 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:27 PM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.70.50.40.30.40.60.81.11.21.31.31.210.80.70.60.60.70.811.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Tue -- 02:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:09 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:04 PM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:43 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.70.60.40.30.20.30.40.70.91110.90.80.70.50.50.40.50.60.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.