Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:29PM Sunday March 18, 2018 3:30 AM EDT (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 954 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 954 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak wave of low pressure will move just north of the area tonight, dragging a cold front southward across the waters into Sunday. This front will waver in the vicinity as areas of low pressure develop along it early to mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 180534
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
135 am edt Sun mar 18 2018

An area of low pressure will cross central nc tonight. Cool high
pressure will build into the region Sunday, then drift offshore by
early Monday. A series of low pressure systems will affect our area
Monday through Wednesday, causing a period of unsettled weather.

Near term tonight
As of 940 pm Saturday...

besides some adjustments to the pop forecast, little change required
to the other weather parameters through the overnight.

00z sounding from gso depicts a decent instability layer aloft with
mid level lapse rates between 7-7.5 deg c km. Also, the lowest 5k ft
of the atmosphere still appears rather stable. Thus, the bulk of the
scattered convection that will cross central nc late this
evening overnight should main mostly elevated. This will limit the
potential for strong damaging wind gusts, though a low freezing
level (a little over 8k ft per gso sounding) will support the
development of hail in any updrafts able to persist more than 20-30
minutes. Bulk shear still very impressive, so conditions still
support for the potential for organized storms but the stable near
sfc layer will likely mitigate the wind threat.

Still appears that the highest coverage of showers storms will
remain in vicinity of a sfc-925mb boundary draped west-to-east along
the nc va border, dipping southward through the northern coastal
plain. Currently appears that coverage across the southern half of
the forecast area will be no worse than 30-40 percent.

Mild evening in progress with temperatures in the 50s-lower 60s.

With the passage of the showers storms, temperatures across the
north should slide into the 40s with upper 30s probable by morning
across the northern coastal plain. Overnight temperatures across the
south will generally be near 50-lower 50s.

Short term Sunday and Sunday night
As of 330 pm Saturday...

sun will break out during the morning with cool and dry advection
underway early Sunday in northeast flow as high pressure scoots
across the ohio valley and pushes down the atlantic coast. Highs
will benefit from insolation, reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The tranquility will be short-lived, however, as the high moves
offshore quickly, allowing for southwest return flow ahead of our
next system, which will begin to spread increasing cloudiness across
the area by late Sunday night, with a chance of light rain in the
southwest piedmont by morning. Lows will be cooler in the northeast
Sunday night, mid 30s, while cloudiness and earlier onset of return
flow will limit the diurnal fall to the mid 40s in the west.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 410 pm Saturday...

confidence is increasing regarding two episodes of precipitation
across cntl nc early to mid week, including some wintry
precipitation Tue night-wed, in a somewhat similar fashion as last

A progressive trough aloft now over the intermountain west will
evolve into a closed mid-upr low east of the cntl rockies by sun
night, then get sheared crushed as it migrates through confluent
flow around the base of a negative height anomaly over sern canada,
to the middle atlantic coast by tue. This trough will support miller
"type b" cyclogenesis along the SRN fringe of a cold air damming
high anchored by the confluence aloft, with an associated wave of
low pressure likely to deepen while tracking the SRN piedmont to the
srn-cntl coastal plain Mon night. The result will be lowering
overcast on mon, with an increasing probability of rain from SW to
ne with time on mon, and a subsequent likely to categorical
probability of rain showers Mon night, with NRN (climatologically-
favored) counties likely to remain in a cooler and more stable wedge
air mass, while SRN ones experience milder and slightly unstable
conditions, with an associated slight chance of thunder Mon night.

Elevated thunder will be possible as far north as roughly the hwy 64

Thereafter, medium range guidance solutions are similar to those of
24 hours ago, which had trended toward a deeper and more srn
solution regarding a trailing shortwave trough rotating through the
base of the l W ERN u.S. Trough - a pattern very similar to that of
last Sun night-mon. Such a scenario would favor the development of a
mid level deformation precipitation band over the SRN and s-cntl
appalachians and subsequent enewd migration across the SRN middle
atlantic states Tue night-wed, on the NW side of a developing
surface cyclone over and offshore of sc.

Given this stable signal in model guidance, the dominant large scale
pattern described in recent days that will favor a SRN storm track,
and the (overnight tue-wed) timing of the deformation band, it
appears increasingly probable that portions of at least the nrn
piedmont and NRN coastal plain will experience a period of wintry
precipitation. Similar to the last event, partial thicknesses deep
layer thermodynamic profiles will trend sufficiently cold for snow
aloft, with the primary inhibiting factor being a slightly above
freezing boundary layer. With that in mind, and also similar to the
last event, melting of snow and associated cooling of the boundary
layer --to freezing-- would likely occur when the heavier
precipitation rates occur, and or when insolation will be at a
minimum late Tue night-early wed. As such, a light accumulation of
snow will be possible, though it is far too early to determine any
specific amounts or details.

A drying and clearing trend will commence as the ERN u.S. Trough
gradually relaxes and lifts away through the end of the week.

Temperatures will consequently gradually modify, though still below
average, and with freezing conditions probable Fri and Sat mornings.

The next weather system will migrate east and spread a chance of
rain east of the appalachians next weekend.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
As of 135 am Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: a mesolow continues to track east of the
forecast area at this hour, pushing a line of showers and storms
east into the nc coastal plains. Behind this feature, light rain
showers continue to move west to east, allowing for intermittent
cigs and vsbys across the area. While most sit atVFR at this time,
periodic drops to MVFR with an isolated ifr in the eastern sites,
will remain possible as the residual moisture lingers. Have
displayed this in the tafs through the use of tempo groups through
the 08z time frame (west) and 10-11z time frame (east). Gradual
improvement is expected beginning sunrise Sunday, with all sites
returning toVFR no later than the noon hour, with clearing skies.

Some MVFR potential returns overnight Sunday into Monday as
easterly southeasterly flow returns and a warm front drifts north.

Outlook: another threat of sub-vfr conditions will arrive on Monday,
with the sub-vfr threat persisting into the middle of next week as a
series of disturbances passes overhead. Confidence is not high
regarding timing of these disturbances, so aviation interests should
check back for the latest thinking.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Mlm
long term... Mws
aviation... Jjm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi43 min 1011.9 hPa
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 86 mi61 min W 7 G 12 66°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi39 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F55°F86%1008.3 hPa
Lumberton Municipal Airport, NC17 mi37 minNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F57°F87%1008.1 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F53°F94%1009.5 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi38 minN 310.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE4NE3CalmCalmNE4SE4S5S8SW13W16
1 day agoSW8SW7SW7SW8SW6W6W10W13
2 days agoCalmSW3SW5SW3SW3SW6SW10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sun -- 04:17 AM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:42 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:44 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.