Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:04 AM

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FXUS64 KHUN 280650 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

NEAR TERM
(Today)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

An upper ridge pattern continues to gradually move eastward into the mid/southern Atlantic Coast, while high pressure at the sfc settles into the southern Atlantic Basin. With a return flow pattern well entrenched across much of the region, seasonably warm/humid conditions will continue thru the second half of the weekend period, as afternoon highs again climb predom into the upper 70s/lower 80s, under partly/mostly cloudy skies. Relatively breezy conditions will also continue into the evening hrs, with SSE winds near 15 MPH coupled with gusts around 20-25 MPH.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Seasonably warm/dry conditions will linger thru tonight, as lows fall mainly into the mid 60s/near 60F. The overall pattern will then begin to change going into the new work week, as the upper ridge axis drifts into the mid/southern Atlantic Basin, while an upper low/trough pattern out of the mid/southern Plains lifts NE.
An attendant sfc low will also lift into the upper MS Valley, thereby helping to drag a cold front into the Midwest region.
Gulf moisture will spread back into the mid TN Valley Mon, with increasing showers/tstms developing along/ahead of the oncoming front. Relatively high chances for showers/tstms (70-80%) will develop Mon night, as the front drifts closer to the area. The front may then stall just to the NW of the local area on Tue, as the upper trough axis crosses into the region. Low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-40%) will linger into Tue, before rainfall tapers off Tue night, as drier air above H85 filters into the region out of the WNW. The prob for any stronger storms looks minimal attm, given the lack of any sig low-level convergence coupled with better synoptic forcing diverting more to the north.
Seasonably warm temps look to continue Mon/Tue, with highs once again climbing into the upper 70s/lower 80s, while overnight lows trend predom in the mid 50s/lower 60s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper ridging will build into the Oh River Valley and northeast along the Atlantic Coast through the second half of the work week, and will keep temperatures on the warm side. Daily highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, with very low (10-20%) chances for diurnal showers/storms each afternoon through Thursday. By Friday, an upper low will pivot from the Central Plains and into the upper Midwest, and a cold front will push east, approaching the MS River Valley. As synoptic lift increases ahead of this front, rain and storm chances will increase to around 40-50% during the day on Friday and into Friday night. Rain chances over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge over the Gulf and southern Atlantic coast, which could stall the sfc front just to our south early Saturday before it lifts back north. This would support additional showers and storms through the weekend, so have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs (40-50%) at this range. Temperatures will cool but only slightly Friday and Saturday, with highs near the low 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mid/high clouds out of the south continue to gradually move over parts of the area heading into the overnight hrs. Sct cloud cover will linger for much of Sun, maintaining VFR conds thru the TAF period. SE winds near 7-8kt will also increase closer to 12-14kt with higher gusts Sun morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.

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