Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL
May 14, 2024 6:25 PM CDT (23:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 11:37 AM Moonset 1:22 AM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KHUN 142310 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 610 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
As cloud cover begins to break up ahead of a cold front, we've begun to destabilize as heating of the boundary layer takes place, with SBCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg as of 17z. Expect these trends to continue over the course of the next couple of hours as these clouds continue to erode. A line of weak convection has formed across north central Mississippi SW back to the Mississippi River and expect convective trends to increase in the next couple of hours as this activity encounters a more unstable environment. The front will approach NW Alabama over the next 2-3 hours and expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage quickly once the forcing arrives. This front will pass across the region during the 2-8 PM CDT window, with some strong/severe storms accompanying it given the combination of instability and shear. All modes of severe weather will be possible with the strongest activity, but damaging winds/hail have the highest confidence. A low chance for a tornado or two will exist as well given the backed low-level wind profile and sufficient effective shear values. This activity will begin to taper off from west to east between 00-03z, and some partial clearing may take place between 03-06z. However, expect low stratus to build back in late tonight, keeping lows in the lower 60s in most locations.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The base of the trough will push through the area on Wednesday, bringing some additional cloud cover and low to medium (20-60%)
chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms from the late morning through the afternoon -- with the highest coverage favoring far northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Mostly clear conditions Wednesday night along with a moist boundary layer will create an environment favorable for patchy fog as lows drop back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A brief bout of ridging will allow for a nice day on Thursday and a nice warm-up as temperatures jumped into the low to mid 80s in the afternoon.
The pleasant weather will be short-lived cloud cover and rain chances (20-30%) increase Thursday night ahead of the next low pressure system. More widespread and higher rain chances (70-80%)
are forecast on Friday ahead of an approaching mid/upper trough and its cold front. The best forcing/instability appear to be displaced to our south and the main severe threat will be confined along the Gulf Coast.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Upper level ridging on Thursday quickly gives way to another upper level shortwave trough slated to move over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and into the weekend. However, there remains a fair bit of model disagreement with regards to the evolution and timing of the shortwave through the region. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system is shown to develop and progress over central Texas on Thursday. By Friday morning, this feature looks to progress into the ArkLaTex. At the same time, another low pressure system is shown to move over the Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley on Friday and Saturday. The associated cold front from this system looks to sweep over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, bringing high chances (70-85%)
of showers as well as the potential for storms.
As for any potential for strong to severe storms, confidence is low at this time. Models show sufficient instability and shear for thunderstorm development, but not much more at this point. Overall, some gusty winds are possible along with frequent lightning and heavy downpours with any storms that do develop. Low chances (20-40%) of showers and storms then continue through the weekend, with low chances (10-20%) Sunday night through Monday. These lingering chances, especially Sunday and Monday, are likely due to the aforementioned model disagreement in the upper levels. We will continue to monitor trends with future model runs, as details of any potential severe weather for late week as well as precipitation chances from the weekend into early next week will become clearer with better model agreement.
Quite the warm up is possible between Friday and Monday. Highs Friday are forecast to be mild, in the mid to upper 70s, due to higher chances and coverage of showers and storms. Highs are expected to be a bit warmer on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s. By Monday, highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible.
As for low temperatures, values generally remain in the lower to mid 60s through Sunday night.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Broken line of tsra is currently moving eastward thru north central AL and may impact the KHSV terminal for another 1-2 hrs.
MVFR cigs near 1500 ft are then expected to develop late tonight following the passage of a weak cold front. Cigs look to lift above 3K ft by the onset of the afternoon period Wed, with VFR conds prevailing thru the end of the TAF period. SSW winds around 5-7kt will also become light/var this evening, before turning west near 8kt by Wed afternoon.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 610 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
As cloud cover begins to break up ahead of a cold front, we've begun to destabilize as heating of the boundary layer takes place, with SBCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg as of 17z. Expect these trends to continue over the course of the next couple of hours as these clouds continue to erode. A line of weak convection has formed across north central Mississippi SW back to the Mississippi River and expect convective trends to increase in the next couple of hours as this activity encounters a more unstable environment. The front will approach NW Alabama over the next 2-3 hours and expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage quickly once the forcing arrives. This front will pass across the region during the 2-8 PM CDT window, with some strong/severe storms accompanying it given the combination of instability and shear. All modes of severe weather will be possible with the strongest activity, but damaging winds/hail have the highest confidence. A low chance for a tornado or two will exist as well given the backed low-level wind profile and sufficient effective shear values. This activity will begin to taper off from west to east between 00-03z, and some partial clearing may take place between 03-06z. However, expect low stratus to build back in late tonight, keeping lows in the lower 60s in most locations.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The base of the trough will push through the area on Wednesday, bringing some additional cloud cover and low to medium (20-60%)
chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms from the late morning through the afternoon -- with the highest coverage favoring far northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Mostly clear conditions Wednesday night along with a moist boundary layer will create an environment favorable for patchy fog as lows drop back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A brief bout of ridging will allow for a nice day on Thursday and a nice warm-up as temperatures jumped into the low to mid 80s in the afternoon.
The pleasant weather will be short-lived cloud cover and rain chances (20-30%) increase Thursday night ahead of the next low pressure system. More widespread and higher rain chances (70-80%)
are forecast on Friday ahead of an approaching mid/upper trough and its cold front. The best forcing/instability appear to be displaced to our south and the main severe threat will be confined along the Gulf Coast.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Upper level ridging on Thursday quickly gives way to another upper level shortwave trough slated to move over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and into the weekend. However, there remains a fair bit of model disagreement with regards to the evolution and timing of the shortwave through the region. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system is shown to develop and progress over central Texas on Thursday. By Friday morning, this feature looks to progress into the ArkLaTex. At the same time, another low pressure system is shown to move over the Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley on Friday and Saturday. The associated cold front from this system looks to sweep over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, bringing high chances (70-85%)
of showers as well as the potential for storms.
As for any potential for strong to severe storms, confidence is low at this time. Models show sufficient instability and shear for thunderstorm development, but not much more at this point. Overall, some gusty winds are possible along with frequent lightning and heavy downpours with any storms that do develop. Low chances (20-40%) of showers and storms then continue through the weekend, with low chances (10-20%) Sunday night through Monday. These lingering chances, especially Sunday and Monday, are likely due to the aforementioned model disagreement in the upper levels. We will continue to monitor trends with future model runs, as details of any potential severe weather for late week as well as precipitation chances from the weekend into early next week will become clearer with better model agreement.
Quite the warm up is possible between Friday and Monday. Highs Friday are forecast to be mild, in the mid to upper 70s, due to higher chances and coverage of showers and storms. Highs are expected to be a bit warmer on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s. By Monday, highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible.
As for low temperatures, values generally remain in the lower to mid 60s through Sunday night.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Broken line of tsra is currently moving eastward thru north central AL and may impact the KHSV terminal for another 1-2 hrs.
MVFR cigs near 1500 ft are then expected to develop late tonight following the passage of a weak cold front. Cigs look to lift above 3K ft by the onset of the afternoon period Wed, with VFR conds prevailing thru the end of the TAF period. SSW winds around 5-7kt will also become light/var this evening, before turning west near 8kt by Wed afternoon.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMSL NORTHWEST ALABAMA RGNL,AL | 6 sm | 13 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.67 |
Northern Alabama,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE