Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 4:24 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 936 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers late this morning and early afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 936 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Front that has lingered over the area since Friday retreats nward while becoming more diffuse. Benign winds/seas into the early week but shower and tstorm activity is expected.

FXUS62 KMHX 051350 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 950 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 950 AM Sun...Still an unsettled morning across the Inner Banks as band of showers migrates along a now-stalled surface trough draped from Raleigh Bay northward to the Albemarle- Pamlico Peninsula. Weak wave of low pressure migrating along a stalled frontal boundary aided by a weak shortwave aloft will continue to push eastward into the afternoon. Surface destabilization is also evident on satellite as cu field has quickly taken shape in what few clear spots remained around sunrise.

Prior analysis still holds with 3 main focuses of precip activity today -

1) the ongoing precip along the surface trough

2) this afternoon shower and tstorm activity further increasing from the W this afternoon with the support of a passing shortwave

3) Despite the cloudiness, a weak seabreeze originating over the Crystal Coast this afternoon which could spark some showers/tstorms along it as it moves inland

Iso- sct showers remain possible elsewhere. Chc PoPs cover the area through the morning with a period of LKLY in the afternoon for the far Wern edge of the FA. CAPE will be sufficient but shear will be lacking once again, so tstorms remain possible but the severe threat is low. Mostly cloudy to OVC skies expected through the day due to convection and debris clouds which will limit MaxTs Sunday; approaching 80 away from the coast, low 70s beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
As of 0345 Sunday...SFC high off the NECONUS gets shunted S by a front working through New England tonight which will slowly veer winds through the period to become SSWerly in the early morning hours MON. Precip potential wanes overnight with mid and upper level flow becoming more zonal as high shifts Sward.
However, moisture content remains relatively high, near the 90th percentile of climatology which means that ISO to widely SCT showers cannot be completely ruled out. Mostly Serly flow and mostly cloudy skies keeps MinTs warm and muggy, generally mid 60s, upper 60s beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.

Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip chances to around 50% at this time range.

A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass will persist, and the initial impression of this weather pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with potential for a significant event if all ingredients come together. That being said, much can change at this time scale but we will continue to monitor this potential.

The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0700 Sunday...TAF sites currently showing VFR flight cats this morning and this will be the predominant set up through the day outside of showers/tstorms. A band of S-N oriented showers will continue through the morning while slowly nudging Eward with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely near it. Some of the showers could be locally heavy bringing occasional IFR/LIFR conditions. Generally expect this line to remain E of the TAF sites. Pred VFR expected Sunday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of sub- VFR conditions with greatest chances occuring across the Wern coastal plain and a lower possibility for EWN/OAJ to see tstorms pop up along the seabreeze. Have included TEMPO MVFR groups to try to highlight the most likely times for each TAF site. CIGs lower from W to E overnight reaching IFR levels for inland sites in the early morning hours. OAJ has a low end chance of seeing IFR CIGs Mon morning, but confidence is low considering recent model runs have trended more Wward with the limit of the IFR CIGs . Have included a few IFR deck for OAJ in early morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0400 Sunday...Winds slowly veer through the short term, SEerly 10-15kt through the morning, Serly overnight still 10-15kt but outer waters near GStream 15-20kt. Seas will be 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period but the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the coastal waters.

Winds Monday will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front, and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas will develop across portions of the coastal waters through Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:59 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:24 PM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Morehead City, NC,