Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:58PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:07 PM EST (21:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:36AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 317 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Monday morning...
Tonight..Variable winds 5 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Rain with a chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. Rain.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, NC
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location: 34.88, -76.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 131940
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
240 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will shift offshore tonight. Another strong storm
system will affect the area Friday into the weekend. High
pressure will gradually build in from the west early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 240 pm thu... Latest sfc analysis shows 1027mb high
pressure centered over eastern nc this afternoon. High pressure
will shift offshore tonight in advance of the next potent
southern stream system. Broken mid and high clouds over the area
this afternoon gradually lowering overnight. An isolated shower
will be possible across the southwestern portions of the area
towards daybreak, but expect bulk of precip to hold off until
after 12z. Expect a non-diurnal temp curve for most places
overnight, in particular along the coast, with lows dropping
into the low mid 40s early then increasing late as clouds and
onshore flow increase.

Short term Friday
As of 240 pm thu... Strong southern stream system will continue
to gradually intensify and move through the gulf states Friday.

Showers associated with this system will gradually overspread
the area from SW to NE through the day. Periods of moderate to
heavy rain expected. Flash flood watch remains in effect for the
area beginning Friday afternoon, due to the combination of
heavy rainfall and already saturated soils. See hydro section
below for additional info. Isolated tstms possible fri
afternoon, but slightly better instability expected overnight
fri. Much warmer Fri with low level SE flow, highs in the 60s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 200 pm Thursday... Heavy rain is expected for the first
half of the weekend, and showers could linger through most of
Sunday. High pressure will build in from the west next week.

Friday night through Saturday night... Deep upper cut-off low will
migrate from the lower mississippi river valley to the southern
appalachians through the period. At the surface, an area of low
pressure will move over the area early Saturday. Large moisture feed
from the caribbean will pump temperatures and dewpoints into the
60s, as surface cyclogenesis and strong upper level diffluence over
the area enhances lift. Models are showing pw values increasing to
around 1.75" Friday night into Saturday morning which is near the
climatological maximum for mid-december. This will be a recipe for
heavy rain over the area, with storm total rainfall forecast around
4 inches for the southern coast, and 2-4 for the rest of eastern nc.

Cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night
given the strong dynamic environment and 0-6km bulk shear around 40-
50 kt, however instability will be lacking with mucapes forecast aob
500 j kg. Taper pops to chance Saturday night as deeper moisture
feed slides offshore. Temps will be mild with highs in the 60s
Saturday. Strong southerly flow will keep temps mild Friday night as
well with lows only expected in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Temps
Saturday night expected in the mid to upper 40s inland to lower 50s
coast.

Sunday and Sunday night... The upper cut-off low will track across or
just north of the area this period with additional cyclogenesis
occurring just off the coast ahead of the trough.

Pw values drop to less than an inch but could see scattered showers
across the area this period with steep mid-level lapse rates invof
the upper low, especially if the low tracks over eastern nc, and
will keep chance pops in the forecast. Temps will be near climo with
highs in the mid 50s to around 60 and lows around 40 inland to mid
40s coast.

Monday through Wednesday... A strong northern stream jet digging into
the great lakes and northeast will allow the upper low to quickly
lift NE away from the area early next week with surface high
pressure building into the region from the west bringing dry
conditions for the first half of the work week. Temps will continue
around or a little cooler than climo with highs generally in the 50s
and lows in the 30s.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through Friday ...

as of 1230 pm thu...VFR conditions will dominate the forecast
period. High clouds will continue to spread across the airspace
at all TAF sites today. As the next system approaches the area,
expect clouds to lower after midnight with low level clouds and
showers increasing after 12z Friday. Light and variable winds
through tonight, then shifting to the E SE after midnight.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 240 pm Thursday... A strong low pressure system will
slowly move across the region Friday night through late in the
weekend bringing periods of sub-vfr conditions. The heaviest
rain lowest CIGS vsbys expected late Friday though Saturday
morning. Conditions begin to improve late Saturday but
additional showers will be possible Saturday night and Sunday
with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible at times. High
pressure builds in from the west early next week with predVFR
conditions expected.

Marine
Short term through Friday ...

as of 240 pm thu... Latest obs show light and variable winds,
less than 10 kt with seas around 2 ft. High pressure over the
waters will shift offshore tonight ahead of approaching potent
southern stream system. Light winds and seas this evening. NE e
winds increasing to 5-15 kt overnight (strongest south of
ocracoke). Strong system strengthens over the gulf states
Friday, slowly moving ene. Increasing winds and building seas
through the day Friday. E SE winds 10-20 kt increasing to 15-25
kt during the afternoon with seas building to 4-8 ft south of
oregon inlet and 3-4 ft north. Scas continue for the waters
beginning late Fri morning across the southern waters and
spreading northward.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 240 pm thu... A strong storm system will be passing
through the southeast producing an extended period of hazardous
winds seas Friday night through Sunday. Flow will veer from
southeast to southwest, eventually becoming northwest Sunday.

Strongest winds will peak Friday night at 20-30 knots, with a
few gusts to gale force possible in the central waters. Seas
will build, peaking Friday night into Saturday as high as 9-12
feet in the central waters from oregon inlet to ocracoke. Winds
will slowly diminish Saturday into Sunday but could see another
nw surge around 15-25 kt develop Sunday night into Monday as
another low pressure area develops off the coast and deepens as
it moves northeast away from the area. Seas diminish to around
4-6 ft Sunday but build some Sunday night into Monday with the
secondary wind surge.

Hydrology
As of 200 pm thu... Flash flood watch has been issued for the
entire area with heavy rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches expected
to fall during the upcoming storm system Friday and Saturday.

The highest rainfall totals are expected along the coast where
some isolated amounts of 4 + inches are possible. The heaviest
precip will fall overnight Friday into Saturday, and given the
very saturated ground, there will likely be flooding of poor
drainage areas, and the potential for localized flash flooding.

Local streams and rivers are already running near or above
flood stage levels, and the expected rainfall will lead to
additional river flooding across eastern nc.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Flash flood watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for ncz044-079-090>095-098.

Flash flood watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for ncz029-045>047-080-081-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm Friday to 6 am est Saturday for
amz135.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm Friday to 1 pm est Sunday for
amz150.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Friday to 5 pm est Monday for
amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 8 am est Monday for
amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Sk sgk
aviation... Sk bm
marine... Sk cqd
hydrology... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 20 mi68 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 1026.9 hPa (-0.6)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi44 min WSW 1 G 2.9 54°F 51°F1027.4 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 41 mi44 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 55°F1026.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC12 mi72 minE 410.00 miFair50°F43°F77%1027.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair54°F42°F64%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE5NE5E5E5E5E5CalmN5NW5NW4NW5NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NE4E5E4E3
1 day agoNW9NW7W8--W6W5SW6SW6S5SW7W7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:19 AM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:57 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:32 PM EST     1.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.41.310.80.50.30.30.40.71.11.41.71.71.51.310.70.40.20.20.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:02 AM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:15 PM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.10.80.60.40.30.30.50.81.11.41.51.51.310.80.50.30.20.30.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.