Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garey, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:13PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 1:00 AM PDT (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:55PMMoonset 5:30AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 831 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 18 seconds, building to 8 to 9 ft at 17 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 15 seconds. Showers in the morning, then showers likely.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 14 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft. Slight chance of showers.
PZZ600 831 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt...a 998 mb low was located around 600 nm W of eureka. A 1018 mb high was located 500 nm sw of point conception. The low will approach the west coast Tue through Wed and its associated frontal system will move across the waters late Tue night and Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garey, CA
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location: 34.9, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 190346
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
846 pm pdt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis 18 716 pm.

Low clouds and patchy dense fog will affect coastal areas tonight,
with clear skies inland. A storm system will approach the area on
Tuesday with rain likely Tuesday evening through Wednesday, along
with mountain snow and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Partial
clearing is expected Thursday into Friday, with a slight chance
of light rain Friday night through Saturday.

Short term (mon-thu) 18 756 pm.

Today was significantly cooler near the beaches, a few degrees
cooler across inland sections of the coastal plain, just slightly
cooler in the valleys, and actually a touch warmer in the mtns
and deserts. Gradients remained weakly offshore this evening.

Some low clouds have pushed into immediate coastal sections of
ventura county and northern slo county, and were beginning to
push into south coastal sections of l.A. County as well. The
marine layer was quite shallow, so there was some locally dense
fog. Expect low clouds to become more widespread in coastal areas
overnight, and there will likely be some patchy dense fog. It
could even become widespread enough to require dense fog
advisories.

Models show low clouds burning off in most areas by mid to late
morning on tue. However increasing mid and upper level cloudiness
in the southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper low
should begin to overspread at least slo and sba counties during
the day. There is a slight chance the leading edge of the rain
with the next storm system could reach the central coast late tue
afternoon. Increasing onshore flow, lowering heights thicknesses
and cooling at 950 mb should bring several degrees of cooling to
the entire region tue, with temps down to near normal levels in
most areas.

***from previous discussion***
not much change in terms of the details of this storm, with
minimal impacts expected. Low pressure aloft currently centered
1200 miles west of los angeles will move over the central coast
Tuesday night, then move little through Wednesday. Still looking
for rain to be focused during the late Tuesday night and Wednesday
time period. The one change made to the forecast is expansion of
thunderstorms. With plenty of cold air aloft (-26c at 500mb),
there will be marginal instability first over the coastal sections
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then over most of the area
Wednesday afternoon and night as the low moves directly over the
region. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in regards to
rainfall amounts due to the expected showery nature and
thunderstorm factor. In general, amounts should range between 0.10
and 0.25 inches of los angeles county, and 0.25 and 0.50 inches
over the other three counties. Local amounts up to around 1.00
inches is possible under heavier showers or thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates should generally stay under 0.25 inches per hour,
but could top out at 0.50 inches per hour basically anywhere under
a thunderstorm. The threat for debris flows are minimal. Impacts
will likely stay confined to travel issues from wet roads. Snow
levels should stay in the 5,000 to 6,000 foot range, but could
lower to 4,000 feet Wednesday morning in the most unstable
airmass. Could see a dusting of snow on some mountain roads, but
accumulations should stay above 5,500 feet. We may need a winter
weather advisory, with santa barbara and ventura counties the most
favorable, but it is very borderline. There will be some gusty
south winds as well, especially Tuesday into early Wednesday, but
looks under any wind advisories at this point. Temperatures will
fall below normal to no surprise.

Due to the slow movement of the system, we could still see
scattered showers anywhere on Thursday, especially over the
interior areas. Temperatures will remain below normal. As the
center of the low moves further to the east later Thursday, gusty
northwest winds will form and will flirt with a wind advisory over
south sba county and the i-5 corridor.

Long term (fri-mon) 18 235 pm.

Besides some possible showers on the northern slopes, Friday looks
dry and a few degrees warmer than Thursday. A very weak upper
level trough will then pass through northern california Saturday
morning, but whether or not our area receives light rain or
nothing remains a tale between model brothers. The ECMWF continues
to show light amounts over much of the area, while the GFS and 90
percent of its ensemble members are completely dry. This adds up
to a chance of rain for Saturday. Sunday and Monday look warm as
an upper level ridge quickly forms behind the trough, and onshore
flow weakens. Above normal temperatures are possible under such a
pattern.

Aviation 19 0036z.

At 00z at klax, there was a 1000 ft marine layer. The top of he
inversion was around 1800 ft with a temperature of 19 degrees c.

Expect widespread low clouds to affect most coastal areas
overnight, with generally ifr to lifr conds and local vlifr conds.

Skies should clear by mid morning in most areas.

Klax... Low to moderate confidence in the 00z taf. There is a 30%
chance that CIGS will arrive as early as 06z. There is a 20%
chance of dense fog with vsbys 1 2nm or less. There is a 20%
chance that east winds will reach 8-10 kt between 10z and 16z.

Kbur... High confidence in the 00z TAF withVFR conds thru the pd.

Marine 18 844 pm.

For the northern outer waters zone (pzz670), high confidence in
the forecast thru Tue morning with winds and seas below small
craft advisory (sca) levels. By Tuesday afternoon, there is a 40%
chance of SCA level south winds, then SCA level S winds are
likely Tue night, with SCA level W winds Wed through thu, and
possibly into sat. Across the remainder of for southerly winds
increasing to SCA level gusts. On Wed and thu, there is a 50%
chance of SCA level W to NW winds across the entire outer waters.

For the remainder of the outer waters, there is a 40-50% chance of
sca level S winds Tue night, then a 40-50% chance of SCA level w
winds wed. SCA level W to NW winds are likely Wed night through
fri.

For the inner waters north of pt sal, high confidence in current
forecast through Tue night with winds and seas below SCA levels.

Wed and Wed night, there is a 20%-30% chance of SCA level W winds,
and for Thu into Thu night, SCA level W to NW winds are likely.

For the inner waters south of pt conception, there is high
confidence that winds and seas will be below SCA levels through
wed. On Wed afternoon into Wed night, there is a 30% chance of
sca level W winds, and SCA level W to NW winds are likely Thu into
thu night, and possibly into sat.

Dense fog will affect much of the coastal waters overnight and tue
morning and will cause sudden reductions in visibility. (see
laxmwslox for details.)

Beaches 18 1203 pm.

A large west swell is expected to move into the coastal sections
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Due to the west component of this
swell, high surf is also possible south of point conception. The
breakers are expected to rise to just above 10 feet on the central
coast and around 4-8 feet south of point conception. The strongest
impact will be felt on west facing beaches.

In addition, a significant high tide each morning will probably
cause a bit of beach erosion and minor tidal overflow.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from 11 pm Tuesday to 11 pm pdt
Wednesday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf advisory in effect from 5 am Wednesday to 3 pm pdt
Thursday for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
Showers with a dusting of snow on mountain roads are possible on
Thursday. Gusty northwest winds will create difficult driving
conditions. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected
over the weekend.

Public... Kittell db
aviation... Db
marine... Db
beaches... Sweet
synopsis... Smith
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 27 mi61 min N 15 G 16 52°F 1014.1 hPa (-0.7)
CPXC1 28 mi17 min N 2.9 G 4.1 51°F 1014.9 hPa47°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 28 mi31 min NNW 1 G 1.9 52°F 54°F1015.1 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 34 mi31 min 55°F3 ft
HRVC1 35 mi31 min 53°F 1014.3 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 36 mi71 min N 5.8 G 5.8 55°F 56°F4 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.4)
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 38 mi31 min 56°F5 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi31 min 9.7 G 12 1013.7 hPa
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 49 mi85 min NE 7 G 9.9 55°F 1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA5 mi70 minW 38.00 miFair50°F44°F80%1015.3 hPa
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA16 mi63 minENE 47.00 miA Few Clouds45°F41°F88%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from SMX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S3SE3S3SE4CalmSE3CalmCalmW9NW76NW6NW6NW8NW8NW6W4--CalmCalmCalmW3SE3
1 day agoSE3S3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W3CalmNW8W11NW12NW9NW5CalmW3S6SE4SE3S3S3
2 days agoSE4S3CalmE4S3SW3CalmCalmNW3NE8NE84NW7NW20
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Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
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Tue -- 02:54 AM PDT     -1.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:55 AM PDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:43 PM PDT     -3.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:04 PM PDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.5-1.1-1.3-1-0.20.91.92.72.92.61.70.3-1.1-2.3-3.1-3.3-2.8-1.7-0.40.81.61.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
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Tue -- 03:25 AM PDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:28 AM PDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:10 PM PDT     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM PDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.31.40.90.91.62.84.15.3665.23.92.20.6-0.6-1.2-0.90.11.534.34.94.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.