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FXUS62 KFFC 261808 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 208 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

High pressure to the NE, driving NE flow, continues to strengthen the wedge through the overnight hours. Ridge development to the west associated with a planes trough and sfc low will drive isentropically lifted moisture into the area. This may cause some light sprinkles along the GA/AL border this afternoon. Accumulations will be trace at best. Otherwise, cloud coverage across North and West GA can be expected.

Surface winds will remain from the SE outside the wedge and ENE inside the wedge. Winds may be lightly gusty, with gusts up to 20 mph not out of the question. Windiest conditions can be expected further to the northwest, where the pressure gradient is greater, and at higher elevations.

Overnight, cloud coverage continues with the developing wedge. Should wake up to fairly thick lower clouds. Conditions through the rest of tomorrow will remain dry and warm. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the high 70s to low 80s across the region. Lows around 60 given the cloud cover.

SM

LONG TERM
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

- The warmest weather of 2024 thus far is expected next week.

- There is a 45 to 50 percent chance of a high temperatures at or above 90 degrees in the Atlanta Metro next Thursday.

- Isolated thunderstorms could occur next week, but widespread rainfall is unlikely at this time.

The Warmest Temperatures of the Year so far Arrive Next Week:

Upper level ridging will dominate over the Eastern U.S. and Southeast next week. The signal in the GEFS and EPS guidance indicating the ridge will maintain it's presence over the Southeast through early May has been strong and consistent over multiple model runs. As such, forecaster confidence in the warming trend is remains high. At this time it looks like the warmth will peak next Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. During this period the odds of high temperatures reaching 90 degrees are the 30 to 60 percent range along and south of Interstate 85. In the Atlanta Metro, the odds of 90 degree temperatures peaks in the 45 to 50 percent range on Thursday. High temperatures in the upper 80s are favored north of Interstate 85. Surface dewpoints look like they will be near 60 degrees next week. This will add to the heat index, but it won't have the region feeling full blown summer humidity just yet.
Isolated thunderstorm activity over the course of the week could locally reduce temperatures any day after Monday.

Rain Chances, Sunday through Friday:

The large scale synoptic pattern next week (upper level ridge in the east and a series of troughs tracking through the Plains) will leave the Southeast largely devoid of strong/defined forcing for precipitation. Thus any rain or thunderstorm activity in Georgia next week should be dependent on diurnal heating and/or weaker shortwaves migrating eastward over the ridge. Due to this scenario confidence in the timing or coverage of any precipitation next week is low. This lower confidence is reflected in the GEFS and EPS, who's individual members exhibit a blotchy pattern of precipitation chances next week. For now our forecast focuses on the potential (10 to 40 percent) for thunderstorms in north Georgia Monday and Tuesday with an initial weak shortwave. After that our highest precipitation chances (10 to 25 percent) are diurnally driven. The total rainfall through next week should be 0.25 inches or less for most of the region (See the WPC 7 Day QPF forecast).

Albright

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the afternoon. Wedge currently causing sharp cutoff of mid bkn deck which will continue to include the ATL metro. Cigs drop through the afternoon. Overnight, Cigs drop to MVFR and then IFR early tomorrow morning. This should lift gradually through late tomorrow morning. Winds will be steady from the E and SE at around 10 kts, gusting into the mid teens to near 20kts overnight.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium Low Confidence Cigs.
High all other elements.

SM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 58 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 62 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 71 55 75 / 10 10 0 0 Cartersville 61 79 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 65 83 62 84 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 60 75 58 79 / 0 10 0 0 Macon 62 82 60 82 / 10 10 0 0 Rome 63 79 59 82 / 0 10 0 0 Peachtree City 62 79 59 81 / 0 10 0 0 Vidalia 63 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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