Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hiawassee, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:56AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hiawassee, GA
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location: 34.92, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 271807
afdffc
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
207 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Update
Things are developing rapidly and we have already issues a few
tornado warning across central ga this afternoon. As the frontal
boundary continues to move east we can foresee issuing a few more
before this is over. A tornado watch has also been issues for
portions of central ga through 00z fri. If you are in the watched
or warned areas please stay weather aware and take shelter as
needed.

Prev discussion /issued 725 am edt Thu apr 27 2017/

Short term /today through Friday/
A squall line continues to move through western and central al
early this morning. This line of storms is ahead of a cold front
currently across central ms.

The line of storms is currently being handled pretty well by the
hrrr. So have followed the hrrr timing and trends fairly closely.

Current surface analysis shows the strongest storms are hugging the
best instability... Which is across far SE ms and roughly the
southern half of al. Expect this trend to continue for the next few
hours. The hrrr does weaken the initial line (the squall line) as it
approaches the cwfa around sunrise and fires additional convection
along the actual cold front as it moves across the cwfa during the
afternoon hours.

Trying to suss out the best areas for strong/isolated severe
convection will be a bit tricky today. The mid level forcing with
this system is expected to get shunted off to the north by mid
morning. So, portions of extreme northern ga should see the best mid
level forcing early today. Mid level lapse rates remain marginal for
the entire cwfa after 12z. The best shear is also expected across
northern ga... With some decent values south of interstate 20 this
afternoon. The issue will be instability. The strong/severe
convection across al/se ms should continue to hug the best
instability down south through the early morning hours. However, a
few strong (potentially isolated severe) storms could also develop
across far northern ga this morning before the squall line weakens.

For late morning and afternoon... The best chances for any strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms will be along the frontal boundary.

With the early morning convection, thicker cloud cover may inhibit
much of northern ga and portions of western al from destabilizing as
the front moves through. However, do think areas along and east of
interstate 85 and south of interstate 20 should have the best
chances for seeing breaks in the clouds, resulting in good surface
instability this afternoon. With the aid of forcing along the front,
this should be where the strongest convection occurs. By this time,
the best mid level forcing and lapse rates have moved off to the
north and shear values are marginal. So, a few strong storms are
likely with some isolated severe storms possible for the afternoon
hours... Mainly east of i-85 and south of i-20.

The models are still progging the frontal boundary to stall across
central portions of ga. Enough moisture and some weak frontal
forcing should allow for some isolated storms to develop during the
day on Friday.

Nlistemaa

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
The long term period will begin fairly tranquil on Friday night.

From a synoptic standpoint... The lower levels will feature a warm
front shifting north of the region and ushering in a pretty moist
and unstable airmass /perhaps most so this season thus far/. This
will be aided in part by the anticyclonic flow from bermuda sfc
high across the central atlantic. Pops look to be dying off by
this time with best shot at any lingering storms up in the mtns
where upslope flow would provide best forcing. In the mid
level... Things are a bit more interesting upstream from us. A
closed low will have developed across the southern rockies and
will be in the process of inducing sfc cyclogenesis across the tx
panhandle area. As this trough digs it will create a downstream
effect which in our case will build a mid level subtropical ridge
into our region from the caribbean.

With a subtropical ridge influence on Saturday... It will be
hot... Thats a given. But despite the synoptic scale descent
associated with the ridge... A very moist /and unstable/ airmass
in place in low levels will allow for the development of diurnally
driven thunderstorms Sat afternoon and evening. Weak shear under
the ridge argues for pulse-severe threat /wind and hail/ given
modest mid level lapse rates and pretty impressive cape. Not
seeing any place to pinpoint best coverage right now given lack of
forcing... But orographic lift within a southerly low level flow
regime in the mtns could help enhance coverage up north. Thinking
this same rule will apply for Sunday... Although ridge will shift
east so could see better diurnal storm coverage.

Sunday night into Monday could be interesting as a cold front
approaches the area from the west. This frontal system will be
associated with the aforementioned closed low over the
rockies... Which by this time will have pivoted into the midwest.

Ingredients do not look quite as good as they once did. Concerned
about the large displacement of upper forcing... Along with the sfc
low undergoing occlusion processes by the time the front
approaches the far SE states. Couple those factors with an
overnight arrival... And confidence becomes hindered on how well
linear MCS will sustain itself as it gets close to the state line.

Instability begins to wane /tho non-zero/ by 12z though shear and
helicity environments are impressive just ahead of the line.

Better CAPE is possible across central georgia later in day so
could end up having a lower threat across northern and western ga
in the morning with an increasing threat across central ga in the
afternoon. Overall... GFS currently showing greater severe
potential than ec but this is based on slight timing differences
to some extent. This system certainly bears close attention... And
a least a marginal severe threat seems likely at this point. Spc
already highlighting al/ms in a severe outlook.

Conditions look dry behind the front on Tuesday... But broad mid
level cyclonic flow development by Wednesday points to a wet
period beginning at the end of this long term forecast period.

Kovacik

Aviation
18z update...

first round of showers and thunderstorms have moved though the atl
area with another much weaker line of shra expected to move
through with in the next 2 hours. The main area of tsra is south
of the atl area but the csg and mcn areas have been or will be
affect before its over. Winds are mainly out of the SW but they
continue to waver from SW to S to SE and back again. Wind speeds
have generally been in the 08-12kt range with some gust in 17-20kt
range. Will see wind speeds diminish to 10kt or less after 00z.

Will also see some MVFR and ifr and some periods of lifr ceilings
over night. Ceilings will lift back into theVFR range after 18z
fri. May also see some lowered vsbys over night but only expecting
MVFR vsbys if anything at all.

//atl confidence... 18z update...

confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

Preliminary point temps/pops
Athens 77 62 85 65 / 70 40 20 10
atlanta 77 64 84 68 / 70 20 20 5
blairsville 73 52 80 62 / 80 20 20 20
cartersville 78 59 84 66 / 80 10 20 10
columbus 80 68 87 69 / 70 30 20 5
gainesville 75 60 82 65 / 80 20 20 10
macon 83 66 88 66 / 60 60 20 5
rome 78 56 84 66 / 80 10 20 10
peachtree city 78 62 84 65 / 70 20 20 5
vidalia 88 68 92 70 / 20 30 10 10

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories
Tornado watch until 8 pm edt this evening for the following
zones: baldwin... Bibb... Bleckley... Butts... Chattahoochee...

crawford... Crisp... Dodge... Dooly... Emanuel... Glascock... Greene...

hancock... Houston... Jasper... Jefferson... Johnson... Jones...

lamar... Laurens... Macon... Marion... Monroe... Montgomery...

morgan... Muscogee... Peach... Pulaski... Putnam... Schley...

stewart... Sumter... Talbot... Taliaferro... Taylor... Telfair...

toombs... Treutlen... Twiggs... Upson... Warren... Washington...

webster... Wheeler... Wilcox... Wilkinson.

Short term... 01
long term... .30
aviation... 01


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andrews-Murphy Airport, NC20 mi60 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast65°F64°F96%1009.8 hPa

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Last 24hrW10W5S9SW8S7S4SW5CalmW3CalmS6
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1 day agoW5W7SW9SW5
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2 days agoE4CalmSW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmNW3E6CalmCalmCalmW3CalmNE6E4N3NE3SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.