Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:21PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:57 AM EDT (11:57 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 627 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. NEar shore, seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers, then rain likely.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to very rough. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221030
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
630 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move through eastern nc this evening. High
pressure will then build into the area this weekend. A storm
system is expected to impact the region early to mid next week.

Near term today
As of 630 am fri... Latest sfc analysis shows strong low
pressure system moving along the NE us coast. The axis of a
strong mid level trough will continue to push off the coast
today. Clear skies across the area this morning, but should see
increasing clouds late in the afternoon, especially across the
northern forecast area ahead of approaching front. It will
become windy late this morning and afternoon as a cold front
approaches. Westerly wind gusts 30-35 kt this afternoon and
evening. Low level thickness values, 850mb temps and downsloping
flow support highs in the low to mid 60s.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am fri... A reinforcing cold front will move through the
area this evening. Not alot of moisture to work with, but may
be enough to generate some sprinkles or an isolated shower
across the N NE portions of the forecast area. Guidance has
trended a bit wetter than previous runs... So added a small pop
for a few hours early this evening across the northern tier.

Breezy NW winds and strong CAA develop behind the front tonight.

Temps will drop into the mid upper 30s inland and upper 30s low
40s along the coast. Winds should stay mixed to preclude any
frost threat.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 3 am fri...

Saturday and Sunday... Deep layer subsidence will keep clear dry
conditions in place Saturday. High pressure building over the
region from the northeast will bring northwesterly winds, and
high temps will be near to a couple of degrees below normal. The
high will then pass overhead Saturday night into Sunday
morning, with calm winds and clear skies leading to efficient
radiation cooling. Temps are expected to reach the mid to lower
30s for most away from the immediate coast early Sunday morning,
which will result in widespread frost and possibly an early-
spring freeze.

The high will move offshore later in the day Sunday, with
developing light southerly flow bringing noticeably warmer temps
compared to Saturday. Aloft, PVA develops as troughing digs across
the eastern us with upper level cloud cover increasing through
the day. However, persistent downsloping mid level flow will
ensure that a dry forecast remains in place.

Monday and Tuesday... Large scale troughing develops across the
eastern us Monday. At the surface, a cold front approaching from
the west will cross the area Tuesday morning bringing the
highest rainfall chances Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

Greatest source of uncertainty with the forecast involves
divergence aloft associated with a southern stream jet streak to
our south, which may develop a wave low within the front. The
effects of this feature on moisture transport, instability, and
frontal passage timing locally remains to be seen, but low end
likely pops with the primary band of pre-frontal moisture
remains in the forecast for the time being.

The upper ridge axis will pass overhead late Tuesday, bringing
height rises aloft and ending any significant precip threat.

Wednesday and Thursday... Ridging is expected to develop aloft
for the end of the period as high pressure centered over the
northeast ridges down the east coast. A mainly dry forecast is
in place given the dry airmass that will prevail inland.

However, low end precip chances will linger over mainly the
outer banks as moisture may linger along a coastal front. Below
normal temps will prevail as we move into the second half of
next week.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am fri... PredVFR expected through the period. Gusty
westerly winds expected today, with gusts 25-30 kt. This will
likely lead to crosswind impacts for runways at ewn and pgv.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 3 am fri...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. A
cold front will approach from the west early next week, and
increasing moisture ahead of the front will bring the potential
for at least periods of flight restrictions beginning Monday
morning.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am fri... Latest obs show W wnw winds 15-25 kt with
seas 4-7 ft. Gusty W wnw flow 15-25 kt continues today with
seas 4-8 ft, highest across the outer central waters. Another
cold front will move through the waters this evening, with
strong CAA behind it. Gusty westerly winds will become more nw
20-30 kt. Could see a brief period of gusts to gale force across
the outer central waters. SCA continues for the coastal waters
and sounds, and added the inland rivers where expect to see
gusts 25-30 kt this afternoon into tonight.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 3 am fri... Moderate northwesterly winds Saturday will
become light Sunday as high pressure moves overhead. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday, bringing increasing
southwesterly winds. The cold front will cross the waters
early Tuesday, with strong northeasterly winds expected to fill
in behind the front through the middle of next week. Scas may be
needed with the pre-frontal southwesterly winds, but there is
higher confidence that an advisory or warning level winds will
occur behind the cold front.

Elevated seas Saturday morning will gradually subside through
the weekend, becoming 1 to 3 ft by late Sunday. Then, seas will
increase as southerly wind swell develops ahead of the
approaching cold front Monday. Large and dangerous seas are
possibly as strong northeast winds develop behind the cold front
Tuesday through midweek.

Fire weather
As of 630 am fri... Dry and windy across eastern nc today. Min rh
values expected to drop to 25-30 percent this afternoon inland
combined with westerly wind gusts 25-35 mph. Given recent rains
do not anticipate widespread fire weather concerns, but the
combination of low rh values inland and gusty winds could lead
to an increased threat of fire danger today.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am edt
Saturday for amz136-137.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for amz135-156-
158.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Saturday for amz150-152-
154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Hsa cb
aviation... Cqd cb
marine... Cqd cb
fire weather... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi39 min W 7 G 15 1008.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi57 min WNW 24 G 28 51°F 1007.7 hPa (+1.7)40°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi63 minW 1110.00 miFair47°F43°F86%1007.6 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi63 minW 910.00 miFair46°F39°F79%1007.8 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi2 hrsWNW 1210.00 miFair49°F41°F74%1006.8 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC22 mi61 minW 14 G 2210.00 miFair49°F41°F74%1007.1 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi60 minW 910.00 miFair48°F39°F74%1008.6 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SW7S10SW12SW11W11--W16W14
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W11W7--SW6SW10W14W11W14W13W12W11W10W11
1 day agoN14N13NE16NE12NE11NE12N7NE9N8N10NE11NE6NE11NE12NE5CalmNE5NE7E8E8E9SE12
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2 days ago--N10NE17N18N16N15
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:51 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:44 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:08 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:06 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.50.80.1-0.4-0.5-0.20.41.21.92.32.42.21.710.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.311.82.32.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:34 AM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:28 AM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:50 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.90.8-0.1-0.7-0.7-0.10.9233.63.63.12.21.20.2-0.4-0.6-0.20.71.82.93.63.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.