Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 1:19 PM EST (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:31AMMoonset 6:03PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 938 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Thursday morning...
Rest of today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to choppy. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds, decreasing to 5 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Rain or snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas around 2 ft, then 1 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 171517
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1017 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area today. Low pressure will
develop along the front offshore tonight. Both systems are
forecast to produce snow across eastern north carolina
today into tonight. High pressure will build in from the west
Thursday through the weekend. A cold front will cross the region
Monday night followed by high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 10 am wed... Very complicated and challenging forecast.

Latest 17 12z meso model suite continues to lock onto idea of
developing coastal low in vcnty of gulf stream by this evening.

Thus, there will be a delayed onset of precip, and warmer temps
aloft through the day today, translating to a slower trend in
precip arriving today, and delayed transition to snow today and
this evening. Have a slow increasing pop trend with mainly dry
through early afternoon, then rain arriving and transitioning to
snow late in the day across the coastal plain counties and
northern tier. Will adjust beginning times of wsw to account for
slower transition to snow.

Things get very complicated tonight, as low pres will be
developing off the coast this evening. There is a small window
of opportunity for the coast to reach warning criteria snow (2-3
inches) before rapid drying occurs. Warm nose still present at
00z will quickly erode by late evening, while in tandem there is
a period of strong fgen omega in dgz in deformation axis from
carteret through obx. Some localized amounts could reach or even
exceed the 2-3 in. Amounts, but again the target of opportunity
will be limited to just several hours before cold dry air
erodes the column a snow ends late tonight.

Previous discussion... As of 345 am wed... Winter storm warnings
have been posted for portions of eastern nc, as a coastal low is
now expected to develop offshore and bring heavier snows to
coastal areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 2-4 inches
of snow is expected generally east of us 17, with 1-2 inches of
snow still expected across the coastal plain associated with a
cold front which will cross the region today.

Ahead of the cold front this morning, temperatures will rise
above freezing, into the low to mid 40s in spots. Rain showers
will develop by late morning across the coastal plain, and
temperatures will begin to sharply drop. Rain will change to
light snow by afternoon across the coastal plain, and
temperatures will drop below freezing soon thereafter. This
transition to snow will move from west to east for the rest of
the afternoon, as the cold front moves to the coast. Snowfall
accumulations will be light, generally 1-2 inches west of hwy
17.

Then, as energy transfers to a developing coastal low east of
the outer banks, heavier snow will move over coastal sections
of eastern nc, generally east of hwy 17. The heaviest snow will
fall along the pamlico sound from carteret county to hatteras
island mainland hyde county. Strong dynamics, thanks to a
robust cutoff upper low, will allow the low to deepen quickly
Wednesday night. This will produce moderate to heavy snow over
the nc coast with a deformation band setting up somewhere.

Mesoscale dynamics factors could produce locally heavier
snowfall of 4+ inches, and even a rumble of thunder.

Snow will end on the coastal plain in the evening, while snow
will remain falling closer to the coast, through early Thursday
morning. Low temperatures will be quite cold behind the snow,
with upper teens to low 20s expected inland, and low to mid 20s
likely along the coast.

Short term Thursday through Friday
As of 340 am wed... Cold and dry conditions will follow the
offshore low pressure system Thursday, with high temps only
topping out in the upper 30s across the area. Low temps will be
very cold Thursday and Friday mornings with teens expected
inland, and 20s along the coast Thursday morning, and low to mid
20s inland Friday morning. As the cold upper trough moves away
on Friday, high temperatures will moderate to 50 to 55.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 340 am Wednesday...

Saturday through Sunday... High pressure moving off the coast,
and rising heights will allow temperatures to warm above average
over the weekend, with dry weather expected.

Monday and Monday night... A cold front will approach late
Monday bringing a threat of showers to area by evening. More
widespread showers are expected Monday night as the front
crosses the area. Mild temperatures will continue ahead of the
front with highs in the lower to middle 60s expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Dry and slightly cooler conditions will
be forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as the models indicate
high pressure over the area. Highs are projected around 60
Tuesday and mid to upper 50s Wednesday.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 650 am Wednesday... A winter storm will bring mixed
precipitation changing to all snow to the area from mid
afternoon through mid evening. Current forecast will call for
MVFR conditions in mixed rain and snow 18-21z then ifr
conditions in all snow 23-5z.VFR conditions are expected after
6z as drier air filters into the region.VFR conditions will
then continue on Thursday as high pressure builds over nc.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 340 am Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected Thursday
through Sunday with dry high pressure forecast to be over the
area.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 950 am Wednesday... Only change was to upgrade pamlico
sound to gale warning for tonight. Gale warnings have been
issued for the waters south of oregon inlet for strong gusty
northerly winds and dangerous seas of 10+ feet. Small craft
advisories are in effect for the remainder of the waters. Latest
obs show N winds 5-15 kt and seas 4-7 ft north of ocracoke and
3-5 ft south. A cold front will move through the waters this
afternoon, with northerly winds increasing quickly along with
building seas. Northerly winds peak at 25-35 kt with seas 7-11
ft late tonight and early Thursday as low pressure develops off
of the coast.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 340 am Wednesday... Rough conditions will persist Thursday
with the strongest winds and highest seas in the morning. Winds
will become NW and diminish to 10 to 20 kt Thursday afternoon
allowing seas south of ocracoke and north of oregon inlet to
subside below 6 ft by early evening. Seas over the central
waters will likely take until late Thursday evening to subside.

Rough conditions will persist across the waters through
Thursday dues to gusty northerly winds and hazardous seas
through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas slowly decrease late
Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday W SW flow around 15 kt
is expected with seas 3-5 ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday.

Sunday W NW flow around 10 kt will become S by evening with
forecast seas of 2 to 3 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 am est
Thursday for ncz029-044-079-090-091.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 6 am est
Thursday for ncz045>047-080-081-093>095-103-104.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 2 am est
Thursday for ncz092-098.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Thursday for amz136-137.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Thursday for
amz135-152-154.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for amz150.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est Thursday for
amz156-158.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Tl sgk
short term... Jme
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme
marine... Jme cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi49 min NE 8 G 12 48°F 46°F1021.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi79 min NNE 15 G 17 1022.9 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi85 minENE 97.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F28°F46%1023.2 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi25 minNE 1010.00 miFair48°F32°F54%1021.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi81 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast48°F30°F52%1023 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi22 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F37°F61%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----N5N6NE5NE4SE3N3CalmCalm--SE3Calm--N3--CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4NE9E9
1 day agoN8NW10NW12NW10NW11N8--N7NW6N6N6--N4--N6N5N4N6N5N6N7N4N4NW4
2 days agoN13
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N13N14N13--N12N10N12----N15--N9--N11N11N12N11N11--NW12N12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:48 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:55 AM EST     2.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:36 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:03 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:12 PM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.3-0-0.10.10.51.11.722.221.71.20.70.2-0-00.20.71.21.61.81.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:39 AM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:19 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:03 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:56 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.2-0.1-0.10.311.92.73.13.22.92.31.60.80.2-0.100.51.21.92.52.62.52

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.