Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 20, 2017 10:28 PM EDT (02:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:19AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 952 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210147
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
947 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions across the region. A weak cold front will
approach the region early next week and stall.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 945 pm Thursday... Not much change to the prevailing
surface pattern with atlantic high pressure and an inland trough
of low pressure which is forecast to continue through the
weekend as upper ridging extends eastward over the region. Thin
high cirrus clouds will continue to stream south into the area
tonight. A light southerly flow will prevail overnight which
will help to produce slightly warmer overnight lows ranging from
the low 70s inland to the mid upper 70s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
As of 3 pm Thursday... The mid to upper level ridge will continue to
build in, while at the surface, the piedmont trough inland and high
pressure off the SE coast. An increase of precip water values
between 1.75-2.00 inches by Friday evening which could lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorm late Friday afternoon, but
forecast soundings are showing dry conditions below 850 mb. At this
time will hold off the mention of showers as it can be very
isolated.

Overall, the main story is the increase heat across the region.

Guidance is in agreement with our local low level thickness study
with high in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s low 90s along
the beaches. Will hold off in issuing a heat advisory as dewpoint
temps will be in the low 70s along the coastal plains, meanwhile the
coastal counties look marginal. Will let the midnight shift to
reanalyze.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 315 pm thu... No significant changes with this forecast
issuance as models remain in good agreement and continuity. Main
issue during period will be the potential for several days of
dangerous heat and humidity for the area with highs well into
the 90s and heat index values of 105+ degrees this weekend as an
upper ridge extends east into the area. Chances for rain this
weekend will also be minimal (only 20%) during the afternoon and
evening hours. Much better chance of showers storms arrive
early next week as a trough and cool front move in.

Saturday through Sunday... 20 12z global model suite remain in
good agreement with extending the west-central upper ridge
eastward into the mid atlantic southeast states. This pattern
will lead to increasing temps and humidity with below normal
convective coverage through the weekend. What activity there is
should be diurnally driven in the late afternoon and early
evenings although will have to be on the outlook for possible
upstream MCS development which may skirt the northern tier. Spc
has NE nc in marginal severe risk for late Sat due to this
possibility but most guidance currently keeps thunderstorm
threat north of albemarle sound, thus will continue advertising
no higher than a 20 pop through the weekend, mainly across
interior zones.

12z ECMWF gfs cmc in good agreement with low level thicknesses
around 1435-1440 meters sat-sun. This will support MAX temps
easily reaching the mid 90s each day. With dewpoints forecast to
be in the 70s, critical heat index values AOA 105 degrees are
expected Sat and Sun afternoons.

Forecast MAX temps will generally be at least 5 degrees below
record highs at most sites during period, with the exception of
khse and knca where forecast is within 3 degrees of records
mainly sat-sun. See climate section below for details.

Monday through Wednesday... Ensemble height fields indicate a
lowering of heights thicknesses beginning as early as Monday,
and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed
due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This
will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and
lead to increasing shower storm chances. The ECMWF is quite
moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g kg
with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the
region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat
developing.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through Friday ...

as of 655 pm thurs...VFR conditions are expected for most of
the TAF period as a drier pattern continues across eastern nc
due to the presence of an upper ridge. Can't rule out some
patchy low clouds developing late tonight but expecting too much
low level mixing for fog. There is not a strong enough signal
in the guidance to include low clouds in the forecast with only
1 model indicating this. Another mainly dry day is expected on
Friday, with only isolated convection possible in the afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 315 pm Thursday...VFR expected to prevail most of the
period with return of offshore high inland trough pattern. The
weekend looking dry with just a very small chance (20%) of an
afternoon or evening storm. There will also be occasional brief
sub-VFR conditions during the early morning hours with the
threat for low stratus and or fog. Better chances for
showers storms arrive early next week with subVFR as a front
moves into the area.

Marine
Short term through Friday ...

as of 945 pm Thursday... Stagnant pressure pattern to continue
across the waters through Friday as noted above with S SW flow
10 to 15 kt expected. Seas will be 2-3 ft this evening and then
increase to 2-4 ft late tonight and tomorrow.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 315 pm thu... No significant changes to previous forecast
thinking. The flow is expected to increase to SW 10 to 20 kt
across the marine domain on Sat with atlantic offshore high
pressure and a weak inland trough of low pressure influencing
the wind pattern. Seas are expected to increase to 3-4 ft with
some 5 footers possible over the outer waters Saturday. Latest
models have SCA winds seas developing as early as Sat night and
continuing through late Sunday as SW gradient further tightens.

Used a blend of nwps wwiv as the nwps appears a bit too high on
wave heights.

Climate
Record MAX temps for 07 21 (fri)
location temp year
new bern 103 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 94 1977 (khse asos)
greenville 102 1977 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 106 1926 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 100 1987 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 22 (sat)
location temp year
new bern 106 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1987 (khse asos)
greenville 102 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 100 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 105 1932 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 99 2011 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 23 (sun)
location temp year
new bern 100 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1972 (khse asos)
greenville 103 1932 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 103 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 24 (mon)
location temp year
new bern 99 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 90 2016 (khse asos)
greenville 99 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Friday through Friday
evening for ncz095-103-104.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tl bm
near term... Jme bm
short term... Bm
long term... Tl
aviation... Jme tl bm
marine... Jme tl bm
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 7 81°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi28 min SSW 6 G 7 80°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi34 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1016.6 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi34 minS 410.00 miFair78°F73°F87%1016.7 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi90 minSSW 810.00 miFair81°F75°F85%1016 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi31 minSW 710.00 miFair77°F75°F96%1017.2 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC22 mi32 minS 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE33NE4S45S8S9S10S6S6S3S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6S3SW4S73N8N14
G21
SW6CalmS7S4--Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3SE4S3S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW8NW4E6E7E12S8SE15SE13SE10SE8CalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:49 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.20.71.21.7221.81.30.80.3-0-0.10.10.61.322.42.62.52.11.61

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:36 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:32 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.51.222.732.92.51.810.3-0.1-0.10.41.22.23.13.83.93.632.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.