Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:29PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:10 AM EST (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:43PMMoonset 9:50AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1241 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, except 7 to 10 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of showers, then showers likely late.
Thu..S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 13 ft, subsiding to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 9 to 12 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 240556
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1256 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight into Thursday,
then move offshore Thursday night. High pressure builds in from
the west by Friday into Monday. Another cold front will
approach the area by mid next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1250 am Thursday... Minimal precipitation thus far across
eastern nc, with heavier widespread precipitation still back to
the west over georgia and moving into western south carolina.

Main story over the next several hours will be the wind. Local
mhx vad wind profile showing 45 knots at 1000 feet and starting
to see increased gustiness over the past couple of hours. The
trend will continue with windy conditions overnight, with the
high-resolution models showing the arrival of precipitation
around 10z or so. Some heavy downpours are likely toward
morning, but instability remains fairly limited. Very mild
overnight low temperatures in the upper 50s still expected.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Friday
As of 230 pm Wednesday... A bevy of impacts will be possible
Thursday morning into the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds
will be very strong out of the ssw for the first half of the
day with wind gusts of 40-50 mph likely along the outer banks
and coastal carteret and mainland dare counties. A wind advisory
has been issued for these areas. An expansive area of
prefrontal rain and convection also appears likely, which will
lead to 1"-1.5" of rain, with the heaviest amounts along the
coast. Although instab will remain quite weak a few
thunderstorms will be possible and given strength of low lvl jet
(60+ knots at 925mb) stronger convective elements will have
potential to produce damaging winds. Will maintain categorical
pops for the morning hours, and then grad end pops from W to e
thru the aftn as deeper moisture slides offshore. Temperatures
will be very warm for most of the day, with readings approaching
70 inland.

Long term Friday through Thursday
As of 3 pm wed... Drier and colder air return for Friday through
the weekend. Rain chances increase by Tuesday into midweek as a
weak low and cold front approach the area.

Friday through Sunday... Behind exiting storm system and cold
front, a deep longwave trough will anchor itself over the most
of the CONUS centered over the midwest and deep south. Arctic
cold front, albeit modified, will bring cold temps back into e
nc with near to slightly below climo temps, with highs expected
in the 45-50 degree range both Fri and sat. Good radiational
cooling expected, with coldest readings on Fri night in the
low mid 20s away from the beaches, and in the low 30s on the
beaches. Latest model trends don't show as strong of a cold air
blast, and heights will begin building by Sunday and as a result
temps climb back to climo, with afternoon highs 50-55 degrees in
southwest winds though continued mostly sunny skies.

Monday through Tuesday... 23 12z forecast guidance has continued
trend on ridging through Monday and therefore lesser chances of
coastal storm development and therefore continued dry fcst. By
Tuesday however, reinforcement of arctic airmass centered across
the upper midwest will send a shortwave and cold front towards
the region again. A weak area of low pressure is expected to
track somewhere up the east coast on Tuesday ahead of the
approaching cold front. Will continue the trend of chance pops
on Tuesday, as ECMWF continues to be most consistent and has
support from the cmc, though GFS continues to be a drier
outlier. Temperatures through this period will be milder, with
highs mostly in the 50s, and possibly some low 60s on Tuesday.

Lows will be near to a bit above avg.

Wednesday... Next arctic cold front will push through by
mid week with a return to below climo temps and dry weather.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Short term through 06z Friday ...

as of 1 am Thursday... Using the latest hrrr and 3km NAM as
guides, ceilings should lower to MVFR by 10z as the steadier and
at time heavy precipitation arrives. Could see some occasional
ifr conditions through mid-afternoon today. Gusty S SW winds of
up to 25-30 mph are expected, along with bouts of low-level wind
shear. Conditions should improve toVFR by late afternoon as
winds become NW and usher drier air into the area.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 300 pm wed...VFR mainly skc are expected to return by
Thursday evening and last through early next week.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 1255 am Thursday... With development of an impressive low-
level jet, with local mhx vad wind profile currently showing
45-knot winds at 1000 feet, winds at the offshore platforms
starting to reflect this increase. Currently seeing gusts of 37
knots at duck pier. Boating conditions will become dangerous
tonight and cont Thu ahead of a cold front. S winds will ramp up
25 to 35 kts tonight and then expect ssw winds to peak 30 to 40
kts Thu with some gusts approaching 50 kts. Have gale warnings
developing all wtrs tonight and cont most of thu. Winds will
begin to shift to the W and grad diminish late Thu as front
reaches cst. The strong winds will lead to seas building to 9 to
13 feet late tonight then peaking at 12 to 20 feet
thu... Highest outer central wtrs.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 3 pm wed... Winds turn to the NW at 10-20 kts behind the
front Thursday night, and then slowly diminish a bit more to
10-15 kt Fri through Fri night. Winds then back to SW but will
remain light on sat. Seas will slowly subside to less than 6
feet by late Friday afternoon into early Fri evening.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 pm wed... Strong winds on Thursday will lead to high
water levels on the soundside of the outer banks north of cape
hatteras, where inundation up to 1 foot will be possible. High
surf is expected across the southern facing beaches with minor
beach erosion possible.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for ncz047-095-103-
104.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 am this morning to 5 pm est this
afternoon for ncz103.

High surf advisory from 5 am early this morning to 1 am est
Friday for ncz095-103-104.

High surf advisory from 8 am this morning to 3 pm est this
afternoon for ncz098.

Marine... Gale warning from 5 am early this morning to 2 pm est this
afternoon for amz136-137.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for amz135.

Gale warning from 4 am early this morning to 4 pm est this
afternoon for amz130-131.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for amz152-154-156-
158.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Rf
long term... Tl sgk
aviation... Ctc tl bm
marine... Ctc tl bm
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi59 min S 14 G 17 58°F 50°F1016 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi71 min SSE 19 G 20 1016 hPa (-3.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi17 minS 17 G 2710.00 miFair65°F57°F76%1013.4 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi73 minSSE 1310.00 miOvercast61°F55°F84%1016 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi14 minS 15 G 228.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F57°F81%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E4E4E3E3E4E3CalmE8----S4SE7SE8S11
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1 day agoNW6NW4NW5N7N7N8N8N8N11N10N9N9N10N9NE96--N744NE6E4--E4
2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 05:13 AM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:14 AM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:44 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.50.80.2-0.3-0.5-0.40.10.81.52.12.42.31.91.30.60-0.4-0.5-0.30.311.62

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:56 AM EST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:58 AM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:28 PM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.910.1-0.6-0.8-0.50.31.42.53.33.53.32.61.70.6-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.20.71.72.63.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.