Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:16PM Monday May 29, 2017 7:27 AM EDT (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 645 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 291021
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
621 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will approach from the northwest today and
tonight, then drift into the region Tuesday. The front will
stall near the area through mid to late week then dissipate.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 620 am Monday... Only change was to add some fog far nrn
obx... This shld dissipate quickly now that Sun is up and a light
w wind expected to develop.

Prev disc... A very warm and mainly dry memorial day for eastern
north carolina. Wsw flow aloft with little or no short wave
energy expected into evening. At the sfc weak frontal zone
expected to remain generally NW of region with sea breeze likely
to remain pinned near cst through mid aftn then drifting inland
slowly late. Given lack of forcing... Only weak convergence
along sea breeze and decreasing dewpts think will see very
little if any convection today. Wl cont and isold pop inland
later this aftn where some mdls show some limited convection
trying to form. Decent instab will develop with strong heating
and if a few storms do pop could be locally strong... But again
expecting most areas to remain rain free today. Temps shld reach
around 90 to lower 90s inland with 80s beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 230 am mon... Limited precip chcs into evening then as
weak front drifts SE toward NRN tier and weak short wave
approaches aloft expecting increasing shra and a few storms
overnight. By the time better forcing and moisture arrives
instab will be waning and shld limit svr threat. Have slight
pops in evening ramping up to good chc most areas late. Cont
warm and muggy with lows mainly 70 to 75.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 4 am mon... An unsettled pattern will be the rule through
most of the long term period as shortwaves disturbances move
through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low
confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations
of subtle short waves passing through the region.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... A weak front is expected to stall across
or just northwest of the area Tuesday with additional short
wave energy passing through. Tuesday convective chances will
depend on what happens to potential Monday night convective
complex that passes through. Potential boundary will be laid
down and will determine where thundershowers develop on Tuesday.

Meso model suite is all over the place with location and timing
of best pops, so have broad 40 pop through the entire day for
the fa. Better moisture will be focused along the stalled front
and channeled shortwave vorticity over the region coincident
with peak afternoon heating if morning clouds dissipate. More
cloud cover and lower thicknesses will keep MAX temps mainly in
the 80s. Lows Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. Spc
continues the entire area under a marginal risk of severe for
their day 2 outlook with continued instability and shear.

Wednesday-Thursday... Another weak front will sag southeast into
the region Wednesday, serving as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be more marginal than
previous mon-tues, thus while thunderstorms will be possible,
severe potential appears much more limited at this time. Also,
hts are a bit higher and think storms will be more diurnally
driven and only isolated in nature, therefore only advertising a
20 pop for Wed and thu. Low level thicknesses near 1400 meters
supporting MAX temps in the mid upr 80s inland to around 80 for
the beaches.

Friday-Sunday... Low confidence for this forecast period due to
poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks and
followed closely with blended guidance approach wpc ecmmos
guide. Generally expecting increasing precip chances through the
weekend, with a 20-30 pop fri, 30-50 pop for the weekend. Max
temps continue quite warm with 85-90 interior to around 80 on
the beaches. Lows continue muggy with upr 60s low 70s.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 620 am mon...VFR expected to dominate thru mid evening
then may see pds of subVFR as sct shra tsra increase later
tonight. Some light fog or stratus trying to develop at oaj but
will quickly dissipate with Sun coming up. Models cont to show
little to no precip thru early evening and expect mainly sct cu
this aftn with wsw low lvl flow.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 4 am mon... MainlyVFR through the period, though ocnl
periods of subVFR in showers and storms for Tuesday. Less
coverage for Wednesday into Thursday as a weak front should wash
out while moving offshore. Better chances for ocnl subVFR
again by Friday as better moisture comes into the area with
showers storms possible.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 620 am mon... Added some fog for far NE sections next hour
or so then shld dissipate with light W winds developing.

Prev disc... Current gusty W winds between lookout and hatteras
forecast to diminish thru morn then become SW this aftn. Fairly
light SW winds will cont over SRN tier tonight with winds
becoming light and variable NRN tier as weak front drifts into
area. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will cont NRN wtrs thru period. Over
central and SRN tier seas of 3 to 5 ft currently will drop to 2
to 4 feet today then subside further to 2 to 3 feet tonight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 4 am mon... The period will experience zonal flow with
weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into the
area. Mainly SW winds 5-15 kt for the marine domain through the
period. The northern waters will see some periods of shifting
winds as the lingering front may pass through at times but with
speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some periods
of seas building to 5 feet for outer portions with stronger sw
winds around 20 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-4 feet during
the extended period. Nwps and wavewatch in good agreement
through the period.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Dag tl
aviation... Rf tl
marine... Rf tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi40 min W 2.9 G 8 74°F 74°F1011.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi28 min W 12 G 14 74°F 1012 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi34 minWSW 55.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F97%1012.6 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi30 minW 510.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1012.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi31 minW 610.00 miFair72°F70°F94%1013.2 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC22 mi32 minW 89.00 miFair0°F0°F%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SW7SW4CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3SW8SW7SW11
G16
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--SW9----SW8SW10SW10SW10
1 day agoSW3CalmS4SW5SW3CalmCalmSW5SW8SW8SW9S10
G16
SW12S11S10S13SW15S11
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S9S7SW7SW7SW5SW5
2 days agoSW16W15W13
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W11NW8NW7CalmS3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.52.11.50.90.3-0.1-0.3-00.51.11.72.12.21.91.50.90.4-0-0.200.51.21.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:23 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.62.9210.2-0.3-0.30.1122.83.23.22.721.10.4-0.1-0.20.2122.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.