Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:07PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 9:03 AM EDT (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:10AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 702 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201100
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
700 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Tropical storm jose will continue moving northeast of the area
today. A trough of low pressure will develop inland this
afternoon and move across the area tonight and Thursday. High
pressure will extend into the area from the northwest Friday
through the weekend. Hurricane maria is expected to track
between the bahamas and bermuda early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 7 am Wednesday... No change to current zones. Dry air and
subsidence will continue over area this morning as jose moves
well to the ne, then an upper level shortwave trough will
approach from the w-nw this afternoon with weak lee surface
troughing developing inland as well. A few model solutions
indicate some possible convective development approaching sw
sections this afternoon but most keep it dry and have stuck with
consensus no-pop forecast. With westerly surface winds and good
insolation, low level thicknesses support MAX temps 87-90
inland and mid 80s outer banks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 300 am Wednesday... Short wave trough energy and pwat
increasing to over 1.5 inches support at least 20% pop over sw
sections tonight, with tstms mentioned during evening. Guidance
also supports increased cloud cover for mainly SW half of area,
which will combine with light SW winds to keep min temps in
upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 3 am wed... High pressure will extend across the region
from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor
hurricane maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track
of hurricane maria late this weekend and next week, though
models have been keeping the system well offshore of the
southeast coast. Eastern nc residents and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
nhc.

A surface trof will move south across the forecast area on
Thursday. Best moisture will be across the southwest counties
and have bumped up pops to chance. Dry weather then expected
Thursday night through Sunday night. Have included slight chance
to chance pops beginning Monday and continuing through Tuesday
night based on the current track of maria. However, this will
change when if the forecast track changes. Thursday will be the
warmest day in the long term, with highs in the mid upper 80s
inland. Highs will be in the lower mid 80s for the remainder.

Overnight lows will be in the mid upper 60s inland, with upper
60s lower 70s outer banks. The coolest night will be Sunday
night, with lows on the coastal plain in the lower 60s, and
mid 60s to lower 70s remainder.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 06z Thursday ...

as of 7 am Wednesday...VFR expected during period with just an
isolated TSTM possible for southern sections this evening. Calm
winds overnight will become light westerly during the day.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 3 am wed...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning fg br and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region. Only chance for sub-VFR in convection will be
Thursday afternoon as a surface trof moves south across the
area.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am Tuesday... No change to current zones. Weakening
pressure gradient in wake of jose has allowed winds to diminish
to 10-15 kt north and 5-10 kt south, but seas remain elevated at
7-10 feet northern and central waters due to lingering swell
energy. Winds will become westerly 5-10 kt all waters today,
then become SW 10-15 kt tonight with weak surface trough
approaching from west.

Wave guidance in good agreement with seas continuing to subside
during period, but remaining around 6 feet outer northern and
central waters through tonight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 3 am wed... High pressure will build in from the north
through the period and cover the region, while we continue to
monitor hurricane maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding
the track of hurricane maria late this weekend and next week,
but models have been trending keeping it well offshore of the se
coast. Mariners and interested parties should continue to
monitor the latest official forecasts from nhc.

Winds generally N NE by Thu afternoon, though winds in the far
southern waters will briefly become light Thu afternoon night as
a surface trof moves south through the area. NE winds 5-10 kt
fri increasing to 10-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt sun. Nwps and
wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas lingering across
the central waters through the entire period. Will likely start
seeing long period southeast swell build from distant hurricane
maria Thu night through the weekend across all the waters.

Small craft seas likely to re-develop Fri and continue into the
weekend, with double digit seas by late weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 am Tuesday... Coastal flood advisory for lingering
long period NE and SE swell energy produce minor coastal flood
threat along outer banks north of CAPE hatteras around high tide
near 8 am this morning. Seas subsiding with lighter offshore
flow but still seeing 7-10 feet with periods around 11 seconds,
and extended high surf advisory for northern outer banks until
11 am to get through next high tide cycle.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-103-
104.

High surf advisory until 11 am edt this morning for ncz103.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for amz150.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Hsa jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Hsa
aviation... Jbm hsa
marine... Jbm hsa
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 7 73°F 74°F1015.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi64 min W 9.9 G 11 76°F 1015.4 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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NW9
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N11
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N7
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NE10
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NE8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi70 minW 39.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1015.8 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi70 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1016.2 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi66 minW 610.00 miFair72°F66°F84%1015.9 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi67 minW 310.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1016.6 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC22 mi68 minW 710.00 mi0°F0°F%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14NW17
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NW10NW11NW7W6W5W5CalmSW4SW3SW3SW3W3W5SW3CalmW3
1 day agoN12--N13N9
G17
N12
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G24
N15N12
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N13N13N11N9N9N11N12N13NW13N11NW11NW12NW10NW13NW15
G21
2 days agoS3N9--N10N10N12N5--N6N7N10N8N9N9N6N9N8N9N11N11N9N12N12N15

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 03:41 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:37 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.610.40.100.30.91.62.22.62.62.41.91.30.70.200.20.71.322.42.62.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 03:24 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:40 PM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.20.500.10.71.62.63.53.93.93.42.61.60.80.20.10.41.22.23.23.73.83.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.