Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:59PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:27 AM EST (10:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:58PMMoonset 5:54AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 429 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except around 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers with isolated tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 220841
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
341 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will build in from the north today through
Friday. The next storm system will affect the region Friday
night into Saturday followed by a cold front on Monday.

Near term through today
As of 3 am Thursday... The backdoor cold front is pushing south
of the pamlico sound early this morning and will push offshore
in the next couple hours. CAA is quickly ramping up behind the
front are currently seeing northerly wind gusts around 20-30
mph along the coast. Strong CAA persists through the day with
high pressure building in from the north keeping temps chilly
despite abundant sunshine. High expected in the mid 40s northern
areas to upper 40s lower 50s south.

Short term tonight
As of 315 am Thursday... High pressure continues to ridge into
the area from the north tonight bringing clear skies and the
coldest temps so far this fall. Lows expected in the mid to
upper 20s well inland and low to mid 30s along the coast. Have
issued a freeze warning for all counties except obx dare hyde
and carteret where temps expected to remain just above freezing.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 300 am thu... Quiet weather with chilly temperatures
Friday will give way to a wet windy day for Saturday. Another
cold front will bring a chance of showers Monday before another
cold surge of air arrives for the middle of next week.

Friday... Strong high pres will pass to the N with cont dry and
cool weather. Expect pc to msunny skies with highs upper
40s lower 50s inland to low mid 50s cst.

Friday night through Saturday night... Still some model
differences in handling the next system. Mid-level trough
becomes negatively tilted Friday night into early Saturday as a
surface low develops in the western gulf region Friday night and
moves near or just offshore Saturday. Preferred the ecmwf
solution with a weaker and more progressive low as the gfs
continues to produce two separate lows. Rain will begin to move
into the region late Friday night and have gone with categorical
pops Saturday with rainfall totals approaching 1 inch. Made some
changes to beginning and ending of precip and added isold tsra
mention imd cst cstl wtrs Sat per ECMWF and NAM shewing weak
instab. Lows Fri night will range from around 40 deep inland to
around 50 beaches. With low lvl flow becoming SE to S Sat with
expected inland low track temps will climb into the 60s. Showers
will end quickly from SW to NE late Sat and Sat evening with
lows in the 40s inland to 50s beaches.

Sunday through Monday... High pres will quickly cross the area
sun and move offshore Sun night ahead of approaching cold front.

The front will cross the area Mon with sct shra expected. Mdls
vary of how much moisture front will have to work with as latest
ecmwf shows decent amount of QPF espcly cst. Will keep pops in
chc range for now. Highs will reach the low mid 60s Sunday then
reach mid upr 60s Mon ahead of the front.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Cool high pressure will build into
the region from west for the middle of next week as a cutoff low
sits over the great lakes. This should lead to a period of below
normal temperatures from mid into late next week, with dry
conditions expected.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 2 am Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period as cold high pressure builds into the region.

Northerly winds expected to gust to around 20 kt after daybreak
through much of the day.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 300 am thu...VFR conditions expected thru Friday night as
high pres passes to the N and moves offshore. Clouds increase
Friday night but CIGS look to stay inVFR range. Shra will
become widespread Sat as low pres lifts NE near the area with
subVFR likely to develop.VFR conditions should return under
the influence of high pressure later Sat night and Sunday. A
cold front will cross Mon with sct shra and poss brief subVFR
at times.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Thursday... A cold front will push south of the
waters early this morning with strong high pressure building in
from the north through the short term. The northerly surge is
quickly ramping up behind the front and expect north wind
around 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt today. Winds become
northeast tonight and relax slightly across the northern and
inland waters but continue around 20-25 kt across the central
and southern coastal waters. Seas presently around 3-5 ft but
continue to build today peaking around 5-8 ft this evening, then
begins to slowly subside late tonight. Continue the SCA for all
waters today and then across the pamlico sound and coastal
waters tonight.

Long term Fri through Monday ...

as of 300 am thu... Poor boating much of this period with bouts
of gusty winds and elevated seas.

Gusty NE winds early Fri will diminish some thru the day espcly
nrn tier. Small craft advisory conditions expected to end nrn
wtrs and pamlico sound Fri morn. Over SRN tier NE winds will
likely remain up enuf to cont 6 ft seas central and SRN wtrs.

Fri night winds become E as high pres moves offshore to the n
with speeds increasing to 10 to 20 kt N and 15 to 25 kt s. These
winds will keep seas AOA 6 ft central and SRN wtrs. With low
pres expected to track inland from coast Sat will have gusty se
to S winds with gusts near 30 kts outer wtrs and seas building
to 6 to 10 ft. Winds become W to NW 10 to 20 kt Sat night into
sun as low pres moves to the N and high pres builds in from the
w. Seas finally expected to drop below 6 ft by Sunday evening.

Sw winds 15 to 25 kts first part of Mon shift to the W as front
cross in the aftn with seas 5 to 7 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for amz136-
137.

Small craft advisory until 8 am est Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for amz130-
131.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Friday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for amz152-154-156-
158.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Rf ctc
aviation... Rf sk
marine... Rf sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi39 min N 8.9 G 13 45°F 60°F1025.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi87 min N 14 G 17 1024.3 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi33 minN 1110.00 miFair43°F37°F82%1025.2 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi33 minN 810.00 miFair39°F34°F82%1026.3 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi89 minN 710.00 miFair42°F36°F79%1024.5 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi90 minN 710.00 miFair42°F35°F76%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4N4N6NE63N34W10W10NW8NW8NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7N14N11N11
1 day agoSW3S3CalmSW7W11W7SW8SW9W8W6NW8W5W3CalmN3N11N11N7N7N5N6N7N3N7
2 days agoN4NE6NE7N5NE7E9NE9NE8N6NW8N5CalmCalmW4W3W6W6W7SW4SW3SW3SW3W5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:33 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:59 PM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3000.30.91.62.22.62.62.41.91.30.70.300.10.511.62.12.22.11.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:15 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:04 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:43 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-00.10.71.62.63.53.93.93.42.61.70.90.300.30.91.82.63.23.332.31.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.