Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:23PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 12:16 PM EDT (16:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:14PMMoonset 5:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1041 Am Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough. Rain likely.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of rain, then a chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231512
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1112 am edt Tue oct 23 2018

Synopsis
A dry cold front will cross the area later today and tonight,
with high pressure building in behind it. A nor'easter will
develop off the southeast coast on Friday, and travel up the
eastern seaboard this weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1030 am tue... Dry conditions prevail today as surface
high pressure remains in control. 12z kmhx sounding indicates
some moisture centered around 850 mb, where modest moisture
advection in southwest flow is occurring, and a saturated layer
over 25kft, resulting in the cirrus coverage across the area
this morning. This cirrus will persist through the afternoon as
the region remains situated near the right entrance region of a
subtle jet streak aloft. A seasonable airmass and only slightly
filter solar insulation will make for near normal temps today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 1045 am tue... Low pressure developing along the new
england coast today will result in strengthening low-to-mid
level northwest flow across the midwest and central
appalachians, strengthening a cold front what will begin to work
into the area this evening. Lack of prefrontal warm moist air
advection will preclude any significant precip threat ahead of
the front, though some sprinkles or a brief light shower along
immediate coastal carteret and onslow counties cannot be ruled
out with the frontal passage. The front will pass off the coast
late tonight. Lows will reach the low to mid 40s inland, and the
upper 40s to low 50s near the coast.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 400 am tue... Below average temperatures are expected for
most of the week. Dry weather is expected through Thursday, and
then chances for rain increase Friday and into the weekend, as a
potential nor'easter tracks along the nc coast Fri night then
is forecast to move up the eastern seaboard Sat and Sunday.

Wednesday through Thursday... Brisk northerly flow will prevail
across the area Wed and Thu as high pressure builds over the
area from the north. This will result in cool temperatures over
eastern nc with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s wed,
and then only in the mid to upper 50s on Thursday. Lows Wednesday
morning will reach the mid to upper 30s inland with patchy frost
potential.

Friday through Sunday... Models continue in decent agreement
regarding a developing nor'easter Friday night into the weekend.

Phasing shortwaves initially will lead to strengthening low
pressure in the northern gulf Thu night, emerging off the
southeast coast fri, then tracking along the nc coast and
deepening Fri night as the mid level trough becomes negatively
tilted. The low then is forecast to move slowly up eastern
seaboard Sat into Sunday but with pressures leveling off. While
uncertainty continues regarding exact details, there will be a
potential for strong winds, heavy rain at times, and minor to
moderate coastal flooding across the area. With a track along
the coast, there could be a large gradient in high temperatures
fri and Sat with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland
to 65-70 along the coast. It will be mild Sunday with a low
chance of showers and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Early next week... Drier weather is forecast as high pressure
builds back over the area with highs in the 60s.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 700 am tue...VFR conditions are expected this morning,
and through the day Tuesday. Clouds will increase along the
southern coast Tuesday, but bases will remain aboveVFR levels.

A dry cold front will cross the airspace overnight, causing a
wind shift to the north, and breezy winds around 10 kts inland.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 400 am tue...VFR conditions will persist through Thu as
high pressure remains over the region. SubVFR conditions will
be possible Sat and Sun as developing low pressure tracks along
the nc coast and produces widespread rain across the area.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 700 am tue... Good boating conditions are expected today.

Winds are currently SW at 5-10 kts, with seas 2-3 ft. Expect sw
winds to continue today, increasing a bit to 10-15 kts. Late
tonight, a dry cold front will push though the coastal waters,
and turn winds to the north at 15-20 kts, with some gusts to 25
kts. Seas will remain 2-3 ft today, and then increase to 3-5 ft
by Wednesday morning.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 400 am tue... Moderate northerly winds 15-20 kt are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds over the
waters. Seas will then build to 3-5 ft Wednesday and Thursday.

Fri E winds around 10 kt will increase to 20 to 30 kt with 2-4
ft seas building to 5-8 ft late. Fri night into sat, shifting
winds will become 20-25 kt on Sat as the low tracks away from
the waters. Seas are forecast to be 6-10 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cb
short term... Sgk cb
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme sgk
marine... Jme sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi29 min W 2.9 G 6 69°F 69°F1022.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi77 min WNW 9.9 G 12 1023 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi19 minWNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F51°F51%1022.3 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi23 minVar 610.00 miFair69°F48°F49%1022.6 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi3.3 hrsNNW 310.00 miFair61°F52°F72%1023.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi20 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F48°F49%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5SW333W3CalmSE4CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmSW3W9W9
1 day agoN15NW17
G23
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G24
N12N11N11N10NW6N6N7N11N10N9N7N6N4CalmN4CalmNE7N7N5NE4NW4
2 days agoSW11W12W14
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W10W8NW4W9W4SW5--W9W8W9NW17
G23
NW10NW10NW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.50.30.30.61.11.72.32.52.52.31.91.30.80.40.30.40.91.422.32.42.21.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:13 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.40.51.11.92.83.53.83.73.32.61.810.60.50.81.52.43.13.63.63.22.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.