Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:02 AM EDT (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:15PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 135 Am Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181758
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
158 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move through the area today. High pressure will
build in tonight through Thursday. A trough of low pressure will dig
into the eastern us by Friday through early next week and bring
unsettled weather.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 950 am wed... No sig changes needed to previous forecast
for update this morning. Latest radar imagery shows isolated
light showers across the very southern zones this morning, with
bulk of convection over the gulf stream. Latest sfc analysis
shows the front slowly sinking through the area this morning,
now seems to be near the crystal coast region. H2o vapor imagery
depicts broad trough swinging through the great lakes region
this morning.

For this afternoon, convective chances will be relegated to
mainly SRN zones, as global models and cam's in generally good
agreement with front getting hung up along the crystal coast as
weak sea breeze development retards further south advancement
of the front until this evening when mid level trough axis
swings through. Precip gradient will be fairly tight, with
little to no activity for northern half of the fa, to scattered
to numerous showers and some storms for the far southern zones.

Will continue the likely pops for the far south, tapering to
slght chc NRN zones.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 345 am wed... Aforementioned front pushes south of the
area this evening as trough pushes through, with drier td's
advecting in from the north on nne winds. Clearing skies
expected, with lows dropping back to slightly below climo, with
mid 60s far interior to low 70s coast. May have to revisit
patchy fog potential tonight with later forecast updates, as
clear skies, calm winds, and t-td's near 0 degrees lead to some
fog potential ESP interior zones.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 350 am Wednesday... High pressure will build in from the
north Thursday and Friday. Expect unsettled conditions for the
weekend into early next week with increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday... The upper trough over the NE u.S.

Will lift northeast into the canadian maritimes while another
trough digs into the upper plains, with brief ridging between
these two features moving east through the mid-atlantic states
during this period. Broad high pressure at the surface will
shift from the southern great lakes through pa ny and off the
southern new england coast, helping keep Thursday and Friday
morning dry for eastern nc. Guidance remains in fairly good
agreement with a weak surface low forming along a stalled
boundary in southern sc early Friday which will lift northeast
along the coast late Friday through Friday night. By Friday
afternoon, chances for showers and thunderstorms increases for
the southern zones as the low approaches from the southwest.

Showers storms could be aided by the sea-breeze formation in
onslow carteret counties coincident with peak afternoon
heating. Given good agreement, have increased QPF after 18z and
through overnight. QPF will range around 0.5 inches inland to 1
inch along the coast obx, though could see higher amounts in any
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate conditions are only
marginally favorable for severe storms as pwats build back above
2 inches and modest instability will be available, though shear
will once again be the limiting factor. MAX temps will remain
in the upper 80s to near 90 deep inland, with mid 80s along the
coast. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s inland to mid
70s along the coast obx.

Saturday through Tuesday... The surface low mentioned above will
lift northeast of the area early Saturday morning, with deep
southerly flow developing in its wake. The upper pattern becomes
more favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms by
Saturday afternoon with deep moist flow from the gom and
western atlantic ocean, deepening upper trough over the
midwestern states, with strong shortwaves rotating around the
base of the upper trough. Best chances for severe storms will
be each afternoon coincident with peak heating. Saturday
afternoon's potential will be linked to shortwave(s) moving
through the area aloft while the upper trough becomes negatively
tilted stretching from wisconsin to west virginia. Sunday
afternoon's severe potential will be dependent upon the
proximity of the upper trough and multiple vort maxes rotating
around the trough helping provide support aloft. Guidance
continues to indicate a prolonged period of moist southerly
flow during this period due to upper trough planted to the NW of
the area, with some areas potentially observing 3 to 5 inches
of precipitation from late Friday through Tuesday, thus cannot
rule out flooding potential despite recent dry conditions. Will
highlight severe flood potential in hwo at this time.

Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will be close to
climatological normals, ranging from highs near 90 inland to mid
80s for the coast. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid
70s.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through 18z Thursday ...

as of 158 pm wed... No major changes to the forecast. MainlyVFR
at all stations. A drying trend will begin this afternoon as
the cold front pushes south and northerly flow behind the
boundary filters drier air into the region. Shower and storms
already developing in the vicinity of koaj. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms still at kewn and koaj with sea breeze
nearby. May be some light fg br develop overnight ESP for koaj
and possibly kpgv where calm winds and clear skies in place.

Winds become east-northeasterly tomorrow morning.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 4 am wed...VFR conditions return Thursday into Friday,
with sub-vfr conditions possible late Friday night through
Sunday as an unsettled pattern develops across eastern nc. A
weak surface low will move through the area late Friday through
early Saturday with southerly flow developing in its wake that
will last into early next week.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 950 am wed... Latest obs show N NW winds 5-10 kt north of
ocracoke, and SW W 5-15 kt south, with seas 3-5 ft (highest
south of hatteras). The front will slowly sink southward through
the day, likely pushing off the southern coast by this evening.

Ne winds all waters for tonight though surge will not be all
that strong so only expecting 10-15 kt winds, with seas 2-4 ft.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 410 am Wednesday... High pressure north of the waters with
a front stalled well south of the eastern nc waters will yield
a NE wind veering to SE from Thursday through Friday. Speeds
will range 5-15 kts during the period with seas 2-4 ft. A
surface low will lift northeast along the southeastern u.S.

Coast late Friday through early Saturday, with moderate SW winds
10-20 kt developing in its wake, Saturday through early next
week. Seas will range 3-5 ft Saturday with occasional 6 ft seas
for the outer waters. Continued to undercut the stronger
winds higher seas of the gfs-based wavewatch guidance for the
extended forecast period.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tl
near term... Cqd tl
short term... Tl
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag tl ms
marine... Dag cqd tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi33 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 84°F1015.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi63 min NNE 13 G 15 1015 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi69 minENE 410.00 miA Few Clouds75°F73°F96%1015 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi69 minENE 310.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1015.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi65 minNE 410.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1014.9 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi66 minNNE 39.00 miFair76°F75°F97%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW6SW5SW7W6SW3--W6NW9NW9N8----NE9E5E7NE6NE6NE4--SE4N6CalmE4
1 day agoSW7SW9SW5S3S3CalmSW4SW10SW7SW12SW10S9
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S7S8S8S9SE8--S11S5S4--SW3SW3SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:32 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:11 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.82.12.11.81.40.90.50.1-00.10.51.11.62.12.32.21.91.410.50.20.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:45 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:55 PM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.83.132.61.91.20.50-00.311.82.63.23.43.22.721.20.60.30.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.