Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:08PM Monday May 20, 2019 4:52 PM EDT (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 303 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201900
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
300 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday becoming
stationary to the south Wednesday, before moving back north on
Thursday. Strong high pressure returns to the area Friday and
into the holiday weekend, however a wavy frontal boundary to the
north could sag south into portions of the area late week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 pm mon... Sct iso tsra well to the west of E nc with a
weakening cold front, will move through the area overnight
tonight. ECMWF and arw nmm indicate a weakening trend to this
activity as it moves towards the coastal plain and the coastal
counties, therefore have capped pops at 20%, as most areas will
remain dry through tonight. Mav met appear to be wet biased
based on current trends. Continued well above climo tonight
with min t's 65-70.

Short term Tuesday
As of 3 pm mon... The cool front will be offshore of the coast by
the morning, and some relief from the very warm temps expected
as highs will be near to climo, 80-85 interior, with mid 70s
obx zones under NE winds. Mostly sunny skies expected
throughout.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 245 pm mon... A brief reprieve from the heat is expected
through Wednesday behind a cold front. Then a return to a
highly amplified upper pattern is expected across the CONUS for
the remainder of the period resulting in a strong upper ridge
over the southeast states. This pattern favors well above
average temperatures, possibly reaching record levels.

Complicating the temperature forecast is a wavy frontal boundary
forecast over the mid atlantic region which will likely
oscillate north south and could drift into portions of eastern
nc late week into the weekend producing slightly cooler but
still above normal temperatures especially north coast if
onshore flow develops. Still looks like a predominately dry
forecast through the period. The aforementioned wavy frontal
boundary could also result in some isolated to widely scattered
convective activity at times but current models indicate no
significant organized precipitation events over the next 7 days.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Low level north to easterly flow
behind the front will bring a quick reprieve from the heat, with
more pleasant and seasonable temps and dewpoints through wed.

Low level thickness values and onshore flow support highs in the
low 80s inland and low mid 70s along the coast Wednesday.

Thursday through Monday... A strengthening upper level ridge
will move out of the gulf of mexico and park itself over the
deep south Thursday into early next week. Surface high pressure
will again set up over the western atlantic, bringing a return
to deep SW flow to the region. Early signs are showing that this
combination could bring close to record heat to the southeast
us. However, the latest model runs continue to show the ridge a
bit further west, placing eastern nc on the peripheral of the
heat, and vulnerable to wavy front from the north drifting south
into portions of the area though it still looks the potential
for very hot conditions still exists and will forecast inland
highs in the 90s through the period and mid to upper 80s closer
to the coast. Continued to trend towards previous forecast, wpc
and the ECMWF which keeps the ridge in place. Right now the
hottest days look like Sunday and Monday. ECMWF shows 850mb
temps 20c+ over most of eastern nc Sunday through the middle of
next week. Record high temps will be possible. Please see
climate section below for details.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 3 pm mon... A weak cold front will bring in some bknVFR
based ceilings for a few hours overnight, though limited
moisture for thunderstorms so have left any mention of precip
out of the fcst. Mostly sunny skies and winds switching to north
expected on Tuesday behind frontal passage.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 245 pm mon... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period, though cannot rule out patchy shallow fog and or stratus
each morning at the terminals.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 3 pm mon... SW wind 15-20 kts late this afternoon and
through most of tonight. By early morning hours, a cold front
will begin to pass north to south through the coastal waters,
and should move through all coastal waters Tue morning. Seas
are currently 2-3 ft and will increase to 3-4 ft tonight,
lingering into Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 245 pm mon... High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the period. N to E winds diminish to 10-20 kt Tuesday
night and wed. S SW winds 5-15 kt return for thu. Guidance
continues to show a front pushing through the waters Friday with
winds briefly becoming NW N 10-15 kt over the northern and
central waters, and NE Fri night. E NE flow 10-15 kt will
continue across the waters Saturday. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft
through the period. Seas may build up to 6 ft across the outer
waters Sat afternoon north of ocracoke with increasing longer
period NE swell energy combined with the onshore flow.

Climate
Record or near record warmth is expected late this week into
early next week.

Record high temps for 5 24 (Friday)
location temp year
new bern 96 2011 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 87 1992 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1925 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 87 1992 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 94 1994 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 95 2011 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 26 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 100 1953 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 88 1962 (khse asos)
greenville 99 1927 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1953 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 2004 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 27 (Monday)
location temp year
new bern 96 1989 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 86 2004 (khse asos)
greenville 96 1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1989 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz195-
196-204-205.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl
short term... Tl
long term... Jme cqd
aviation... Cqd tl
marine... Cqd tl
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 15 78°F 80°F1015.8 hPa (-1.9)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi53 min SSW 13 G 17 78°F 1015.2 hPa (-2.0)69°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi59 minS 1410.00 miA Few Clouds85°F64°F51%1014.5 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi59 minSSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F70°F59%1014.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi1.9 hrsSSW 1610.00 miFair81°F69°F67%1015.8 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC22 mi57 minSSW 15 G 2010.00 miFair83°F61°F48%1015 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi56 minSSW 17 G 2110.00 miLight Rain81°F69°F67%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12S15S9SW11S8S7SW7S7SW6S5SW5SW5S4S3S3SW8SW11S12
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1 day agoS11S8S9S5S5SE3SE4S4S3S5S4S4SW5SW4SW4SW5W7SW8S7S9SW10
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2 days agoSW17
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SW14SW13SW13SW9SW8SW8SW8SW7SW6SW4SW7W8W9W63W7N9N8N9S9

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:04 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.710.4-0-0.2-00.411.622.11.91.50.90.40.1-0.10.10.61.21.82.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:47 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:29 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:48 PM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.21.30.4-0.1-0.20.10.91.82.63.13.12.721.20.5-0-0.10.31.12.133.63.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.