Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 2:52 AM EST (07:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:04AMMoonset 9:48PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 242 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to flat.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. NEar shore, seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, except 1 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 3 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 120718
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
218 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region today and tonight.

Another strong storm system will affect the area Friday into
the weekend. High pressure will gradually build in from the
west early next week.

Near term through today
As of 215 am wed... Ridge of high pres will build across the
region today with very light winds. Low and mid lvls are dry
however mdls all show good deal of upper lvl moisture pushing in
from mid morning on. Hard to determine how opaque the high
clouds will be but shld see periods of pc skies this aftn. No
change to high temps with upper 40s NE to low mid 50s rest of
region.

Short term tonight
As of 215 am wed... High pressure will continue over the region
tonight with mclr to pc skies. Good radiational cooling will
lead to lows around 30 inland to mid upr 30s beaches.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 215 am wed... The first half of the long term will be very
wet, with dry for the second half. GFS and ECMWF in good
agreement concerning the placement of what will be a cutoff mid-
level low moving across the deep south. The primary concern
with this system continues to be the threat of heavy rainfall,
as a consensus of the gfs ECMWF shows 2-4 inches of rain. With
already swollen creeks and rivers, this could cause additional
flooding of low-lying areas. Strong gusty SE S winds will also
be likely with this system. Tweaked the onset of rain on Friday
over the outer banks, with dry conditions in the morning, then
chance pops in the afternoon. Continued categorical pops Friday
night across the entire area. Instability for thunder continues
to look marginal Friday night, so kept chance wording for
thunder. Plenty of wraparound moisture for showers Saturday
lingering into Sunday. HPC now favoring the progressive gfs
solution for early next week with low pressure moving off to the
northeast and high pressure building in from the west, instead
of the ECMWF which favors developing low pressure just off the
coast early next week.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1220 am wed...VFR conditions should dominate thru period
as high pres builds across. Cant rule out some shallow patchy
fog before daybreak given good radiational cooling, however bulk
of guidance maintains a small temp dewpt spread. Low and mid
lvls will remain very dry thru period however mdls show good
deal of upper lvl moisture spreading in today so expect sct bkn
cirrus from mid morning on.

Long term Thu through Sunday ...

as of 145 am wed... Mainly sub-vfr conditions through the period
as a very wet slow-moving system passes through the southeast.

Surface winds south around 5 knots thu, southeast 10-15 knots
fri, southwest 10-15 knots Sat and north 10-15 knots sun.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 215 am wed... High pres will build in from the W today and
cont over the area tonight. NW winds 10 to 20 kts prior to
daybreak will diminish to light and variable by evening and
cont very light tonight. Seas of 4 to 7 feet early will
subside to 2 to 4 feet today and be mainly 2 to 3 feet tonight.

Sca conts N of CAPE lookout for seas. As seas subside SCA will
come down for N and southern wtrs this morn and central wtrs by
early aftn.

Long term Thu through Sunday ...

as of 215 am wed... Thursday will be the only good boating day
in the long term period. A strong storm system will be passing
through the southeast producing an extended period of hazardous
winds seas beginning Friday and continuing through Sunday. Winds
thu will be mainly west to northwest 5-10 knots with seas 2-3
feet. Friday into Saturday the flow will veer from southeast to
southwest, eventually becoming northwest Sunday. Seas will
build, peaking Friday night into Saturday as high as 9-12 feet
in the central waters from oregon inlet to ocracoke. Strongest
winds will peak Friday into Friday night at 20-30 knots, with a
few gusts to gale force possible in the central waters. Winds
will slowly diminish Saturday into Sunday as low pressure moves
off to the northeast, but seas take longer to subside from south
to north, remaining elevated into early next week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
amz150- 154. Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning
for amz150- 156.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Hsa
aviation... Rf hsa
marine... Rf hsa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi35 min W 5.1 G 9.9 45°F 50°F1021 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi53 min W 15 G 18 1020.4 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi59 minSW 710.00 miFair32°F28°F85%1020.2 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi59 minWSW 510.00 miFair33°F26°F75%1020.6 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi1.9 hrsW 510.00 miFair40°F28°F63%1020.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi1.9 hrsW 510.00 miFair37°F28°F73%1020.9 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC23 mi1.9 hrsSSW 510.00 miFair33°F30°F89%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14N13--N13N10N12N12NW17N15
G22
NW15N14N13NW12NW12NW8NW5W4W4SW3W4SW3CalmSW3SW7
1 day agoN18
G27
N18
G26
N15N18N15N13N15N12
G24
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N15N14N14N14--N12
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--N10N13N14N12N12N10N13
2 days agoNE13NE13
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N16N16N15N16N15
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N16
G26

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Wed -- 05:49 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:51 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.30.90.50.30.20.40.71.21.722.11.91.61.20.80.50.30.20.40.81.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:32 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:35 AM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.21.71.20.70.40.40.71.322.633.12.82.31.71.10.60.30.40.71.31.92.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.