Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:17 PM EDT (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:16AMMoonset 5:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 924 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. A few gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft. NEar shore, seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. A few gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 250130
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
930 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
A stationary front will lift north of the area tonight. A cold
front will move through from the west Thursday morning. High
pressure will pass to the south Friday and Saturday. A cold
front will slowly approach from the west early next week.

Near term overnight
As of 930 pm wed... Have cancelled tor watch early as warm front
with associated convection has moved north and east of the fa.

Still advertising categorical pops through early morning hours
though this is mostly for stratiform rain with just some
embedded thunder possible. May see a somewhat better chance of a
few thunderstorms in the pre dawn hours with a bkn line of
convection associated with advancing cold front that is draped
across WRN sc and middle ga attm.

Previous discussion... As of 7 pm wed... Tornado watch #266
remains in effect through midnight tonight for eastern nc.

Latest sfc analysis shows 994mb low over northern kentucky southern
ohio, with attendant cold front draped through the
appalachians, and stationary front draped from about rodanthe to
williamston back into central western nc. Upper low over the mo
valley region will continue to dig SE weakening slightly as
surface cold front pushes eastward tonight. Stationary front
will gradually lift northward this evening and tonight, as cold
front pushes through the area late tonight and early Thursday.

Latest radar imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
across eastern nc. Severe threat continues. Models continue to
show good lift instability as upper forcing increases this
afternoon and early evening as sfc cold front and upper trough
approach from the west. Eastern nc is outlooked in a enhanced to
slight risk of severe weather. The primary threats will be
damaging wind gusts, hail, moderate to heavy rainfall as well as
an isolated tornado. It still looks like the best severe threat
will continue through about midnight. Latest mesoanalysis shows
sb CAPE values 1000-2000 j kg. Forecast soundings show
instability indices mu CAPE values 2500-3000 j kg, li
-6 -9c... With increasing shear, 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50 kt and
low level helicity values increasing. Pwat values increase to
around 2 inches again this evening. So periods of moderate to
heavy rain will be a concern, ESP for locations that saw heavy
rain last night. An additional 0.5-1.5" inches of rain
possible, which could produce localized flooding. Will continue
pops increasing to categorical this evening, with mention of
severe heavy rain wording. Per latest high res guidance, expect
convection to push east off the coast after 06z... Though some
scattered activity could re-develop behind the main line.

Short term Thursday
As of 3 pm wed... Stacked low will move into the mid-atlantic as
attendant cold front pushes through eastern nc. Could still be
enough forcing and instability to trigger scattered showers and
storms. SPC keeps the region in a marginal risk for svr storms,
though parameters looks less impressive than Wed with drier air
in place. Looks colder aloft, -15c at 500mb with freezing levels
around 10kft. Still cannot rule out an isolated strong storm
developing with gusty winds and hail. Breezy gradient winds
develop in the afternoon, with gusts 20-30 mph. Low level
thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 315 pm Wednesday... Drier weather is expected for Friday
and most of Saturday as high pressure surface and aloft builds
over the area. This will be followed by broad upper
troughing more zonal flow aloft which will result in a more
unsettled weather pattern from Sunday afternoon through early
next week as a sluggish cold front moves slowly through the
area.

Friday and Saturday... Expecting warm and mainly dry weather
this period with high pressure over the area. Will continue
slight chance pops north Saturday afternoon but not expecting
much aerial coverage.

Sunday through Wednesday... More unsettled weather expected this
period as the pattern will become more favorable for scattered
convection as a series of weak disturbances rotating through the
flow interact with a slow moving cold front forecast to be in
the area. Will continue 30-40% pops Sunday and Monday and
20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be well into the 80s
through the period.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 7 pm wed... Currently a mixed bag ofVFR MVFR with some
areas of broken 2kft ceilings. Widespread sub-vfr conditions
expected to develop this evening as convection overspreads the
area. Could see brief periods of ifr in heavier showers. Strong
to severe storms will be possible this evening. Conditions will
likely improve toVFR Thursday morning. Scattered showers storms
develop in the afternoon. Gusty SW winds Thu afternoon evening,
with gusts 20-30 mph.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 315 pm Wednesday...VFR expected fri-sat in drier regime
but increasing moisture will lead to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday with brief periods of subVFR
conditions possible.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 930 pm wed... Stationary front has lifted north and out of
the marine domain this evening. Latest obs show winds generally
e 10-15 kt north of the boundary and S SW 10-20 kt south, with
seas 3-5 feet north of ocracoke and 4-7 feet south. Expect
conditions to deteriorate this evening and overnight as gradient
tightens ahead of approaching cold front. The front will move
through the waters early Thursday. SCA in effect for the sounds,
coastal waters and inland rivers. Strong SW winds tonight,
20-30 kt, may diminish a bit early Thursday, but remain gusty
into Thu night. Winds could gust to near gale force over the
coastal waters south of oregon inlet tonight, but will be brief.

Nwps and wavewatch have seas building to 6-11 feet tonight,
subsiding to 5-10 feet thu.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 315 pm Wednesday... Poor boating conditions linger into
fri evening with improvement expected for most of the memorial
day weekend.

Southwest winds 20-30 Thursday night will gradually veer toward
the west and diminish to 20 to 25 kt by daybreak Friday and 15
to 20 kt Fri afternoon. 8-12 ft seas will subside to 7-9 ft fri
morning and 4-6 ft Fri afternoon.

Much improved conditions are expected over the waters this
weekend. Winds are forecast to be southwest 10-15 kt Saturday
through Sunday morning with seas 2-4 ft. The SW winds are then
forecast to increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night to 15 to
20 kt with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. Monday SW winds are
forecast to be 10 to 15 knots but seas are forecast to remain 3
to 5 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for ncz095-
098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Thursday for amz136-137.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for amz135-150.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Cqd hsa
near term... Cqd tl
short term... Cqd
long term... Jme eh
aviation... Jme cqd
marine... Jme cqd tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi48 min S 17 G 22 74°F 73°F1002.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi78 min S 18 G 20 73°F 1004 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi84 minS 9 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F84%1003.4 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi24 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1003.2 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi80 minS 1410.00 miLight Rain74°F70°F88%1004 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi81 minS 16 G 2010.00 miLight Rain74°F68°F82%1004.1 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC23 mi22 minSSE 1110.00 miLight Rain0°F0°F%1004.3 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8S8S10SW7W12W8SW7SW4SW4W6SW43S7SW8SW6SW11S9S8S10SE6S9S12
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1 day agoSW6--Calm--CalmCalmCalmSW5S5S9S4SW7S11SW9S9
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S7S11--SW11S8SW8S9S8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3S3SE5S7SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:28 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:34 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.1-0.2-0.10.20.91.522.32.21.81.20.60.1-0.2-0.20.20.91.62.32.72.72.41.9

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:50 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:16 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:23 PM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.30-0.1-0.10.10.50.91.21.31.20.90.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.20.10.511.51.71.71.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.