Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:19PM Friday July 21, 2017 6:47 PM EDT (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:15AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 337 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds, decreasing to 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211941
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
341 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region
early next week and become stationary.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 pm fri... Latest analysis shows upper ridging across the
area with high pressure anchored offshore and weak surface
trough inland. Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers tstms
trying to develop across the nc coastal plain this afternoon.

Will keep isolated pop mention for the next few hours, but
expect coverage to remain pretty isolated and dissipate with
loss of heating. Most locations have seen heat index values
105-109 degrees this afternoon, and will continue advisory
through 7pm this evening. Lows overnight 75-80 degrees.

Short term Saturday
As of 3 pm fri... Heat and humidity will continue again Sat with
heat index values 105-109 degrees. Low level thickness values
and 850mb temps around 20c support highs in the mid 90s inland
and upper 80s low 90s along the coast. Will issue another heat
advisory for most of the cwa. Isolated showers and storms will
be possible again during the afternoon and evening, but think
the best chance will late, with ridge suppressing convection.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 3 pm fri... No significant changes to the forecast. One
more oppressively hot day Sunday then cooler and wetter for the
early part of the week. May dry a bit mid week as front tries
to push S of region briefly, with a return northward and more
unsettled weather later in the week.

Saturday night through Sunday night... Dry through most of this
period with the main thunderstorm activity well north across the
mid atlantic, with a possible mcs. Beyond an isolated sea breeze
storm Sunday afternoon, if we were to see anything organized the
best chance would be across the far north. Continued low chance
pops across the far north to account for this as these areas
could be on the outer edges of a dying mcs. We remain in a
marginal risk for severe weather across the far north. Limiting
factor remains the convection making it this far south.

Models cont to show low level thicknesses around 1435-1440
meters Sunday. This will support MAX temps easily reaching the
mid 90s one last day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s,
critical heat index values AOA 105 degrees are expected once
again Sunday afternoon.

Forecast MAX temps will generally be below record highs at most
sites during period. See climate section below for details.

Monday through Tuesday...

upper level heights will lower in the east Monday, as a massive
upper level high over arkansas today retreats west toward the
four corners area of the southwest us. The result for us will be
cooler and unsettled weather. On Monday a cold front will
approach and while not as hot as this weekend, temps will again
climb into the 90s one more day with the southwest flow ahead of
the front. The front looks to move through our area Monday night
into early Tuesday, bringing the entire area a decent chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday... Front mentioned above should be south
of our area by early Wednesday that we may see a brief break in
the unsettled pattern. The front returns by Thursday and Friday
with a return to slightly better chances for thunderstorms each
day, especially during the peak heating of the day. Highs
through the period mainly in the 80s, to near 90 inland.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 3 pm fri... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period. Light SW winds should inhibit fog development overnight.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 330 pm fri...VFR expected through the weekend. Next
significant weather would be late Monday and Tuesday with
restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.VFR
Wednesday.

Marine
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 3 pm fri... High pressure will continue offshore with
troughing inland through the period. Latest obs show S SW winds
10-20 kt and seas 2-3 ft. SW surge to 15-20 kt this evening,
with seas building to 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft for the outer central
waters. Gradient tightens sat, mainly in the afternoon and
evening with SW winds 10-15 kt increasing to 15-25 kt. Nwps and
wavewatch show seas building to 3-6 feet late. Will initiate sca
headlines for the pamlico sound and central waters, oregon
inlet to CAPE lookout for gusty winds and elevated seas.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 330 pm fri...

sca headlines for the central waters, oregon inlet to cape
lookout for gusty winds and elevated seas will continue through
Sunday night. Gusty SW flow expected through the weekend as the
gradient between an approaching cold front and high pressure
well out to sea increases. Through Sunday night southwest winds
of 20 to 30 kts and seas 3 to 6 feet are expected over the
central waters. Used wave watch as guidance with nwps running a
bit high on the waves, given our current wind forecast.

By Monday the gradient slackens as bit as the cold front
mentioned above approaches the waters. Southwest winds will
still run 15 to 20 with gusts to near small craft (25 kts), and
seas 3 to 5 feet. Based on the wind speeds waves were capped at
5 feet or less with model guidance still running 1 to 3 feet too
high.

With the passage of the cold front early Tuesday, winds will
continue to decrease to 10 kts or less. Southwest winds will
linger over the southern waters, but veer into the north and
eventually northeast northern waters by Tuesday evening. Winds
pick up a bit Wednesday behind the front and remain out of the
northeast at 10 to 15, with seas 3 to 4 feet.

Climate
Record MAX temps for 07 21 (fri)
location temp year
new bern 103 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 94 1977 (khse asos)
greenville 102 1977 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 106 1926 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 100 1987 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 22 (sat)
location temp year
new bern 106 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1987 (khse asos)
greenville 102 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 100 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 105 1932 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 99 2011 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 23 (sun)
location temp year
new bern 100 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 1972 (khse asos)
greenville 103 1932 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 103 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)
record MAX temps for 07 24 (mon)
location temp year
new bern 99 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 90 2016 (khse asos)
greenville 99 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
103-104.

Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Saturday for ncz029-
044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm Saturday to 1 am edt Sunday for
amz135.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm Saturday to 2 am edt Monday for
amz152-154-156.

Synopsis... Cqd hsa
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Rf eh
aviation... Eh cqd
marine... Eh cqd
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi47 min SSW 9.9 G 14 84°F 80°F1014.7 hPa (-0.6)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi47 min SSW 11 G 15 83°F 1015 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi53 minS 1210.00 miFair88°F73°F61%1014.7 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi53 minS 1010.00 miFair90°F75°F63%1014.7 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi1.8 hrsSSW 1310.00 miFair86°F78°F77%1015.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi50 minSW 11 G 1710.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1015.8 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC23 mi51 minSSW 15 G 2010.00 miFair0°F0°F%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S3S4--S6SW5SW4SW4--CalmS4--SW4SW7SW5SW6W4SW7SW10S9S11S11S12
1 day agoS7S4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE33NE4S45S8S9S10
2 days agoSE8CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6S3SW4S73N8N14
G21
SW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:53 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:32 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40-0.10.10.61.21.72.12.11.81.40.80.3-0.1-0.20.10.61.322.52.72.62.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:08 AM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:34 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:49 PM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20-00.10.40.81.11.21.10.90.60.3-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.40.91.31.61.71.61.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.