Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 8:35 PM EDT (00:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:26PMMoonset 1:42AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 615 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt early, becoming W late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 232229
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
629 pm edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move through the area late tonight followed
by high pressure building in from the north Thursday. The high
will move offshore Friday with a bermuda high pattern returning
for the weekend.

Near term tonight
As of 630 pm wed... No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update. Latest radar imagery shows showers and
storms diminishing across the southern tier, but still going
strong across the northern tier, north of hwy 64 and the
albemarle sound region. Expect convection to gradually spread
southward in the next few hours. Given the good instab and
modest deep lyr shear with NW flow aloft could see a cpl strong
to severe storms this evening with gusty winds and hail.

Convection will likely become most numerous along ahead of front
this evening cntral and N with activity grad pushing S with
front. Late tonight only SRN tier wil likely have threat of a
some shra's or storms. Lows mainly 65 to 70.

Short term Thursday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Lingering shra and poss a storm over
srn tier will likely shift S with most areas dry mid to late
morn on. N to NE flow behind front will keep temps a bit cooler
with 80 to 85 most spots.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 345 am Wednesday... A cold front will provide a brief
respite from the humidity Thursday into the early portion of the
weekend, before deep moisture returns with numerous showers and
thunderstorms for early next week.

Thursday night through Sunday... A pleasant night expected
Thursday night with lows into the 60s area-wide. Friday should
be a generally sunny day with highs in the lower 80s and
dewpoints in the 60s. Winds veer to SE S on Saturday but forcing
for precipitation remains weak. Will have just a few showers or
storms inland on the seabreeze for Saturday, with highs warming
to the mid 80s. Moisture will continue to increase on Sunday
with gusty southerly winds and highs into the mid 80s. Upper
forcing remains weak however, and will continue with just low
chance pops at this time.

Monday and Tuesday... Deepening moisture associated with an upper
low closing off along the gulf coast will lead to higher chances
of showers and thunderstorms for early next week. Precipitable
water values will surge to over 2 inches with increasingly gusty
se S winds. Will forecast high chance pops at this time with
high temperatures generally upper 70s to lower 80s with
increased cloud cover.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 630 pm wed...VFR conditions currently across the area
early this evening. Shld see mainlyVFR for the next several
hours, however sct to numerous shra and tstms continue to develop
which could result in a few periods of subVFR. Some of these
storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and
large hail possible. Shra and tsra shld grad end thru the
evening from N to S as front crosses withVFR returning and cont
thru the day Thu as clouds diminish. Moderate confidence that a
period of MVFR to possibly ifr ceilings could develop early thu
morning, mainly at iso ewn oaj. Low level SW winds become ne
late tonight and thu.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 355 am Wednesday... A rather quiet period aviation-wise
expected for Thursday night through Sunday. Lower dewpoints and
light winds will lead to good flying conditions, mostlyVFR thru
Friday. A few scattered sea breeze thunderstorms may form
Saturday and Sunday afternoon inland, but any sub-vfr conditions
will be short-lived.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 630 pm wed... Sw winds 10-20 kt expected into the evening
ahead of a cold front with seas around 3-5 ft. A few gusts to 25
kt poss central wtrs and pamlico sound but for now not planning
to issue an advisory. Cold front will push S overnight with
winds shifting to nne AOB 15 kts that will cont into Thu with
dir becoming more E later thu. Seas will subside to 2 to 4 feet
later tonight and 2 to 3 feet thu. Numerous showers and storms
across the albemarle sound and north of hatteras, will continue
to gradually spread southward over the next few hours. Some
storms continue to be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... Fairly quiet marine weather will
continue through most of the forecast period. Expect NE winds at
10-15 knots Thursday night before winds veer to more SE S by
Friday and into the weekend. In response to a re- strengthening
of high pressure offshore and low pressure developing over the
gulf of mexico, SE S winds will start to increase Sunday with s
winds gusting to 20 knots possible by Sunday afternoon. Per
latest local nwps swan model, seas should remain at or below 4
feet until Saturday, but building to 4 to 5 feet later Sunday
and Sunday night as SE swell energy increases.

Equipment
As of 630 pm wed... Kmhx radar is down until further notice,
awaiting parts.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rf sk
near term... Rf cqd
short term... Rf
long term... Ctc
aviation... Rf ctc cqd
marine... Rf ctc cqd
equipment... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi47 min SW 6 G 12 75°F 78°F1017 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi35 min SW 9.9 G 13 1017.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Last
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SW10
G13
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SW4
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SW8
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G7
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G11
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G16
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SW8
G14
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G10
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G12
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G14
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G12
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G10
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi98 minSW 87.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1016 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi42 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds75°F71°F88%1016.4 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi98 minSW 1410.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1016.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi39 minWSW 118.00 miFair74°F73°F100%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11--SW6SW6SW6----SW7SW7----SW6SW11SW11SW14
G18
W13W13W13SW10SW13
G17
SW12
G20
SW11S6SW8
1 day ago--S8SW10--SW5SW4S4SW5SW4CalmS3SW3SW6SW10W9SW10W10W17SW10S13SW15
G22
SW14----
2 days ago--SW11SW8S7--SW6SW7SW7--SW7--SW5SW7SW7SW9SW10W10S10SW8S9S8S8S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:27 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:02 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:04 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:36 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.91.41.82.12.11.81.410.50.200.20.51.11.622.22.11.71.30.80.40.1

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:56 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.711.21.31.31.10.80.50.20-000.30.611.21.21.210.70.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.