Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:22PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:27 PM EST (01:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:47AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 426 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of rain or a slight chance of snow in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of rain or snow in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas around 2 ft, then 1 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 162121
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
421 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area tonight, and produce light
snow across eastern north carolina Wednesday into Wednesday
night. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday
through the weekend.

Near term tonight
As of 420 pm tue... Latest sfc analysis shows 1029mb high
pressure centered over eastern nc this afternoon. The high will
push off the coast tonight ahead of the approaching cold front,
currently moving through the appalachians. Latest satellite
imagery shows scattered high clouds across the area this
afternoon, with earlier low stratus mainly dissipated, though
some low clouds and fog beginning to advect back in over the
northern outer banks. Updated forecast based on several high res
models showing fog and stratus advecting back in over the ne
portions of the area this evening and overnight, in same
location as last night. Fog could become locally dense.

Overnight lows dropping into the low to upper 30s overnight.

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
As of 4 pm tues... Wednesday through Wednesday evening will be
the focus for wintry weather as rain quickly mixes with then
changes over to snow across most of eastern nc starting late in
the morning for the coastal plain and ending in the evening for
the coast.

Fortunately the system will have limited moisture with most
model QPF forecasts indicating 0.25" or less of water
equivalent. Nonetheless, the system will have good forcing to
wring out what moisture is available, as model x-sections
indicate decent fgen banding in the 900-700mb layer, which
co-located with the dgz may produce some decent snow rates at
times, leading to a quick one to two inches of accums for
northwest half of the fa. Initial energy will go into cooling
the boundary layer, as sfc temps will rise into the 40s before
the snow begins, therefore a brief period of rain may fall
before dynamic cooling quickly cools the low levels sufficiently
and switches to snow. This will be an anafront, where precip
occurs behind the sfc boundary. Thus, not expecting an initial
period of freezing rain, as cooling will occur from top down.

In addition, no warm nose will be present as there is little to
no sfc reflection offshore. Timing of the snow will adversely
affect the afternoon and evening commute when the heaviest of
the snow is forecast to occur. Column drying occurs from the top
down Wed evening as deep layer saturation quickly erodes, and
there may even be a brief period of freezing drizzle before
precip comes to an end on the coast around midnight. Roads will
likely be treacherous where snow falls through thur morning as
overnight lows Wed night expected in the upper teens to lower
20s inland to 25-30 immediate coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 345 am Tuesday...

Thursday through Sunday... Cold and dry conditions will follow
this low pressure system, with high temps Thursday only topping
out in the upper 30s across the area. Low temps will be very
cold Thursday and Friday mornings with teens expected inland,
and 20s along the coast. As the cold upper trough moves away on
Friday, high temperatures will moderate to around 50. High
pressure moving off the coast, and rising heights will allow
temperatures to warm above average over the weekend, with dry
weather expected.

Monday... A cold front will approach late Monday bringing a
threat of showers to area by evening. Mild temperatures will
continue ahead of the front with highs in the lower to middle
60s expected.

Aviation 21z Tuesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday ...

as of 420 pm tues... High confidence inVFR conditions to
persist through 00z. Expect mostly clear skies this afternoon
with high clouds increasing tonight ahead of the approaching
cold front. Could see areas of fog advect in over the TAF sites
late tonight and early Wednesday morning, though sub-vfr
conditions could remain east of the sites like earlier today.

Confidence is low at this time. Clouds will lower Wednesday
morning, but remainVFR until late morning early afternoon where
conditions will lower belowVFR as the onset of rain starting
over the inland TAF sites (pgv and iso) then a mix of rain snow,
while the coastal sites (ewn and oaj) will have mostly rain
before 18z. Winds will remain light from NW this afternoon,
becoming calm overnight.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm tue... Light snow will likely impact conditions
Wednesday evening with widespread sub-vfr conditions likely,
then improving toVFR by early Thursday morning.VFR conditions
expected Thursday through Sunday with dry high pressure forecast
to be over the area.

Marine
Short term through Wednesday night ...

as of 420 pm tue... Variable wind directions across the waters
this afternoon with weak high pressure over the area, though
mainly N NE 5-15 kt. Seas south of ocracoke still about 3-5 ft,
and north of ocracoke much higher 4-8 ft in ene swell. Seas
north of ocracoke expected to remain mostly at or above 6 ft
overnight into wed. A cold front will move through the waters
wed afternoon, with northerly winds increasing quickly along
with building seas. Northerly winds peak at 20-30 kt with seas
5-9 ft Wed night. A brief period of gale force gusts will be
possible across the central waters Wed night. SCA advisories
continue for the waters north of ocracoke, and issued for the
southern waters and sounds beginning Wed afternoon. Areas of fog
and stratus beginning to advect back in across the northern
waters late this afternoon, and high res guidance shows vsbys
lowering to less than 1 mile overnight and early Wed morning.

Another dense fog advisory might be needed for the waters and
sounds.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 345 am Tuesday... Small craft conditions will persist
across the through Thursday dues to gusty northerly winds 20 to
25 kt through Thursday morning and hazardous 5 to 8 ft seas
through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas slowly decrease late
Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday W SW flow around 15 kt
is expected with seas 3-5 ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 10 pm est Wednesday for
ncz029-044-045-079-080-090-091.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm to 10 pm est Wednesday for
ncz046-047-081-092>094-098.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm to 10 pm est Wednesday for
ncz095-104.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 1 am est
Thursday for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm Wednesday to 10 am est Thursday
for amz130-131-135.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm Wednesday to 1 pm est Thursday
for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Cqd sgk
near term... Cqd
short term... Jme tl
long term... Jme tl
aviation... Jme cqd bm
marine... Jme cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi39 min Calm G 1.9 42°F 46°F1028 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi87 min NNW 5.1 G 6 1028 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N11
G14
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N12
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G29
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G16
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G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi92 minESE 37.00 miClear42°F36°F79%1028 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair36°F30°F82%1028.3 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi89 minN 010.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1028.1 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair38°F34°F86%1028.6 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6N6N6--N4--N6N5N4N6N5N6N7N4N4NW4----N5N6NE5NE4SE3N3
1 day agoN10N12----N15--N9--N11N11N12N11N11--NW12N12
G17
N8NW10NW12NW10NW11N8--N7
2 days ago--N12N10N11----N14
G25
--N15N15
G22
NE10
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NE10
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NE15N14N15N14N13
G21
N13N12
G18
N13N14N13--N12

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EST     2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40-0.1-00.40.91.51.92.12.11.81.40.90.40.1-00.10.511.41.71.71.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:11 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 09:25 PM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.2-0-0.100.20.611.21.31.31.10.80.50.20-000.30.60.8110.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.