Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:13 AM EST (08:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:40AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 306 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to choppy.
Tonight..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug

Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180615
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
115 am est Sat nov 18 2017

High pressure will gradually move offshore late tonight and
Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the area early
Sunday. High pressure will be over the area Monday into Tuesday.

A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night followed by high
pressure for mid to late next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1130 pm Friday... Quick update to issue freeze warning for
area between albemarle and pamlico sounds and frost advisory for
pamlico and carteret counties. Temps have dropped to near 30 in
portions of intra-sounds region and mid 30s for pamlico and
carteret and growing season has not ended in this areas.

Previous discussion
as of 900 pm Friday... High pressure will crest over the area
this evening, then begin to move offshore very late tonight.

Other than some occasional passing cirrus clouds, the high will
continue to produce mostly clear skies and light winds.

Resultant radiational cooling has lead to rapidly falling
temperatures this evening with current readings already at or
below forecast lows. Thus have lowered minimum temperatures,
especially coast which are colder than MOS guidance. We have
issued a frost advisory for areas to the north that did not yet
have a killing freeze and where temps will be in the low to mid
30s. Think overnight lows will occur 2-3 am most locations then
as the high center moves offshore and return SW flow begins,
could see readings rise if mixing can occur below the strong
nocturnal inversion. Very shallow patchy fog will also be
possible but is not expected to be widespread enough to create
significant travel issues.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
As of 4 pm Friday... The low-level flow becomes southwest on
Saturday leading to a big warmup as high temperatures will be
well into the 60s with a few spots reaching 70 degrees Saturday
afternoon ahead of strong oncoming cold front. Latest arw shows
some showers just offshore Saturday afternoon, but the area
should mostly remain dry as the bulk of any precipitation holds
off until later on Saturday night with just an increase in mid
clouds during the afternoon hours.

Long term tonight through Friday
As of 235 am fri... A cold front will bring showers and strong
winds to eastern nc late Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon. High pressure then builds in Monday and Tuesday, and
then an offshore trough develops and may bring showers to
coastal sections Wednesday. Thanksgiving looks to be mostly dry
with high pressure building in again.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure off the coast will keep most
of Saturday dry. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the cold
front under strengthening SW flow. High temps will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s across the region. The cold front is
expected to cross eastern nc Sunday morning, with rain showers
breaking out ahead of it inland after midnight Saturday night,
and lasting through Sunday morning along the coast. There is
finally good agreement between the different forecast models,
pushing the front off the coast early Sunday morning.

Precipitation amounts will be light, mainly 0.10" or less in
most areas. Low temps Sunday morning will be mild, in the 50s,
as we will still be receiving strong warm air advection. Highs
on Sunday will be cooler, with temps only rising a few degrees
from the morning lows behind the cold front.

Monday and Tuesday... High pressure will build in from the west
Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft
will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs
Monday will range from the low to mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs
will reach the low 60s. Low temps will be at or below freezing
inland both Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s
further east, and low to mid 40s along the coast. Some frost
will be possible for parts of coastal counties where the growing
season is still ongoing, with the best chances on Tuesday

Wednesday and Thursday... An offshore trough will develop and
move over the gulf stream on Wednesday, and may bring showers to
coastal sections of eastern nc. Have slight chance pops east of
hwy 17. With the latest model suite, thanksgiving looks drier as
the coastal trough pushes further out to sea, and then high
pressure moves in. High temps will be in the mid to upper 60s
Wednesday, and then the upper 50s to low 60s Thursday. Low temps
both days will range from the low 40s inland to the upper 40s
to low 50s along the coast.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through 06z Sunday ...

as of 100 am Saturday...VFR expected to prevail through taf
period except for some period of steam fog with local ifr
conditions at kpgv and kewn through 12z. High pressure moving
offshore and front approaching from west will produce pre-
frontal warm sector conditions today through evening with shower
activity holding off until after 06z. Will see increasing high
clouds during the day with some scu development this afternoon
into evening. SW winds will gust up to 25 kt during this
afternoon and evening.

Long term Saturday evening through Wednesday ...

as of 245 am fri... MostlyVFR conditions are expected through
Saturday evening. Then a strong cold front will enter the
airspace, and could produce a period of sub-vfr conditions late
Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.VFR conditions then return
through Tuesday as high pressure builds back over the area.

Short term tonight and Saturday ...

as of 900 pm Friday... Winds and seas will continue to diminish
overnight as high pressure builds over the waters. Light
northerly winds this evening will veer to the S SW toward
morning as the high center moves east of the waters late. Seas
should generally run 3-5 feet tonight. SW winds will increase on
Saturday afternoon ahead of a approaching strong cold front,
with 15-20 knot winds likely by later in the afternoon and seas
gradually building to near 6 feet by evening.

Long term Saturday evening through Wednesday ...

as of 4 pm Friday... Have initiated a gale warning for the
coastal waters and pamlico sound starting Saturday evening with
a small craft advisory for the albemarle sound and inland
rivers starting at the same time. These headlines will continue
through late Sunday.

Previous discussion... Winds on Saturday will quickly increase
to SW 15-20 kts by mid morning. 20-25 kt winds are expected by
the afternoon, with winds increasing still overnight. SW winds
30-35 kts are expected across the coastal waters and pamlico
sound early Sunday morning, and as a result have issued a gale
watch for these waters. Elsewhere, strong small craft conditions
are likely. As the cold front crosses the waters Sunday
morning, winds will weaken slightly and shift to NW 25-30 kts.

Gales should end by late morning, with winds becoming 20-25 kts
by late afternoon. Winds on Monday morning will be nnw 15-20
kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds Tuesday will
be light and variable before becoming sse 5-10 kts.

Seas will initially be 2-4 ft across the coastal waters
Saturday morning, before building Saturday afternoon to 4-7 ft,
and then 8-13 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning. Seas will
remain elevated through Sunday evening, then subside to 3-5 ft
Monday, then 2-3 ft Monday night and Tuesday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Freeze warning until 7 am est this morning for ncz045>047-081.

Frost advisory until 7 am est this morning for ncz094-095.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Sunday
for amz130-131-136-137.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Sunday for

Synopsis... Jme ctc
near term... Jme ctc jbm
short term... Ctc
long term... Sgk
aviation... Jbm sgk
marine... Jme ctc jbm sgk

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi73 min N 6 G 7 50°F 1020.6 hPa (-0.9)42°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi19 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist31°F30°F100%1020.8 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair36°F35°F97%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmN11N14N10----N10N7------NE9N11N8N6NE8NE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN6N4--N7NW9NW6NW6NW8NW6NW5NW9NW12NW7NW10NW8N5NW6NW10W5CalmCalmCalmCalm--
2 days agoN11N10N10N12N10N9N13N10N13N11

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 02:22 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:08 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:45 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 03:14 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.