Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:23PM Sunday March 24, 2019 5:14 AM EDT (09:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, except 1 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough.
Wed..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 240805
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
405 am edt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the area will slide offshore today. A storm
system will impact the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure
building down the east coast will then dominate later Tuesday
into the second half of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 3 am sun... High pressure overhead this morning will shift
offshore through the day, allowing light south to southwest flow
to develop by this afternoon. Aloft, minor height falls and
vorticity advection will bring the possibility of scattered thin
cirrus throughout the day, with coverage increasing through the
late afternoon. Still, persistent mid-level subsidence will keep
a dry and warm forecast in place, with highs reaching the upper
60s to lower 70s for most of the area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 3 am sun... H5 troughing will begin to expand into the
southeast tonight, resulting in increased PVA destabilization
aloft. Low level WAA advection will steadily increase as the
high moves further offshore and the region becomes more firmly
entrenched within the warm sector of a low pressure system
working into the tennessee valley. Lingering mid level dry air
will keep any mentionable pops out of the forecast.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 330 am sun... No big changes to the forecast with slight
tweaks upward with precip chances later Monday and Monday
night. Unsettled to start the period as a complex low pressure
area and front affect the region, then dry high pressure builds
in with mainly dry and seasonably mild temps second half of the
period.

Monday through Tuesday... A complex and broad frontal system
will impact the east coast Monday into early Tuesday. Locally,
moisture advection will begin Monday being the strongest Monday
night as we will be located within the warm sector of the
approaching system. Surface low pressure will slide across the
appalachians into the carolinas Monday evening. Guidance is
resolving a complex low by the time it reaches our area Monday
night, with the primary low center passing to our south, but a
secondary low possibly forming near over eastern nc. Confidence
has grown that while chances for rain will increase Monday
afternoon, especially across the north and west, the highest
threat for widespread showers will be Monday night. The highest
qpf amounts will be over the north and northeast closer to
where the secondary low may form. As the previous forecaster
added with our update yesterday, a few rumbles of thunder remain
possible, though instability appears too low for a severe threat.

Gusty winds and some coastal flood concerns will emerge late mon
night and ESP tue, as low offshore in tandem with building high
across the great lakes mid atlantic strengthen gradient winds.

Wind adv criteria (gusts > 45mph) may be met for coastal
counties for a time, and may lead to minor coastal flooding as
persistent nne winds occur through at least Tue night.

Wednesday through Saturday... High pressure ridging down the
east coast will dominate locally, keeping a mainly dry forecast
in place for the second half of the workweek as low pressure
stalls well offshore. Northeast winds will prevail, though they
will gradually diminish through the period. Accordingly, temps
will trend from below normal Wednesday to above normal by
Friday. High pres should finally ridge overhead by next weekend,
bringing very pleasant spring-like conditions to the region.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday night ...

as of 1 am sun... High confidence inVFR conditions through the
taf period with high pressure cresting over the area tonight
producing clear skies and calm winds. Mostly clear skies will
continue Sunday with light south to southwest winds developing
by midday Sunday and continuing through the evening.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 330 am sun... Flight restrictions are possible Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning as a broad and complex storm system
impacts the area.VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly winds
arrive during the day Tuesday, likely continuing through
Wednesday. VFR Thursday.

Marine
Short term through Sunday night ...

as of 3 am sun... South to southwest winds will develop this
morning, gradually increasing to 10-15 kt through the afternoon
and overnight as high pressure slides further offshore.

Southerly windswell will develop as the winds strengthen, with
seas building from mainly 1 to 2 ft today to 2 to 4 ft tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am sun... Very strong winds behind a cold front will
produce a prolonged period of at least small craft conditions
Tuesday through Thursday, with gales possible from midday
Tuesday through Wednesday midday. Dangerous boating conditions
are expected during this period.

Southwest winds will remain relatively light over the waters
through Monday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The
cold front low pressure area will pass off the coast Tuesday
morning. The low will deepen offshore Tuesday as high pressure
builds inland, resulting in strong north to northeast winds
developing with SCA conditions likely as early as early Tuesday
morning. Gale conditions are likely late Tuesday morning into
Wednesday morning as low pressure remains stalled well offshore,
keeping the gradient tight locally with strong north-northeast
winds and seas building to 10 to 14 feet.

Winds will slowly diminish on Wed though likely persist in the
strong SCA range as they veer toward the northeast. Due to the
prolonged period of wind seas will remain 10 to 14 feet. By
Thursday winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kts, but enough of a
gradient will remain over the waters that gusts to 25 kts will
remain. In addition little improvement is expected with seas
still running 7 to 11 feet especially over the central waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Freeze warning until 8 am edt this morning for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cb
short term... Cb
long term... Eh tl
aviation... Eh cb
marine... Eh cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi63 min Calm G 1.9 49°F 58°F1026.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi75 min W 2.9 G 4.1 54°F 1026.4 hPa (+0.0)45°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair37°F34°F89%1025.9 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair33°F30°F89%1026.3 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi77 minN 09.00 miFair40°F37°F93%1026.2 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi18 minN 010.00 mi0°F0°F%1026.9 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC23 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair46°F35°F66%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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NW9NW10NW8W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoW10W11W11W12W14
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2 days agoS9SW11S9SW7S10SW12SW11W11--W16W14
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W11W7--SW6SW10W14W11W14W13W12W11

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:18 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.31.91.30.60.1-0.2-0.20.10.71.31.92.22.11.81.30.70.2-0.1-0.20.10.71.31.9

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:12 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:37 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.41.10.80.40-0.1-0.10.10.40.91.21.31.31.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.