Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:25PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:34 AM EDT (14:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 929 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191410
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1010 am edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
An offshore high inland trough pattern will continue through mid
week producing a hot southwest flow across the area. A weak
frontal boundary is expected to move into northern sections
tonight and Wednesday with a stronger front pushing through the
area Thursday. That front will lift back north across the area
Friday night and early Saturday.

Near term rest of today
As of 935 am Tuesday... Only very minor adjustments for the near
term forecast with the morning update, mainly to account for
hourly trends in temps dew points sky cover, otherwise previous
forecast in good shape. Several locations are already reporting
heat indices in excess of 90 degrees this morning.

Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure anchored across the se
us and offshore with troughing across west central nc. Weak
frontal boundary currently extending through the NE us and back
into the central mid-west, will slowly sink southward through
the mid-atlantic states today, approaching nc late this
afternoon and evening. The upper ridge builds aloft today
resulting in rising temps, but should also serve to help
suppress diurnal convection. Main change to the forecast early
this morning was to increase clouds across the NE counties and
obx with scattered mid and high clouds streaming onshore.

Main story today will be the heat and humidity, with today being
the hottest day of the season thus far. Some record temps will
be possible (see climate section below for details). Low level
thickness values, 850mb temps 20-21c, and W SW flow support
highs in the upper 90s inland, and low to mid 90s along the
coast. Very hot temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s will
result in heat index values climbing to 105-110 degrees this
afternoon. A heat advisory continues for all of eastern nc. Some
heat indices for spots near hwy 17 could briefly top out
between 110-113 degrees. Isolated showers and storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening, and will keep slight chance
mention given the instability and moisture in place. Nssl wrf
shows best chances across the southern forecast area near the
seabreeze. The hrrr keeps the isolated showers south of the
forecast area.

Short term tonight
As of 225 am tue... A weak front will push southward into the
northern forecast area this evening, which will help to trigger
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for convection will be
across NE nc, and increased pops slightly near the albemarle
sound and northern obx per latest high res guidance. Isolated
strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rain will be possible. Expect this convection to wane after 06z.

Another warm and muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 330 am Tuesday... Guidance continues to indicate that upper
ridge will weaken enough to allow weak frontal intrusion into
northern sections Wednesday, followed by a slightly stronger
push late Thursday into Friday. Ridging then returns Friday
night through weekend with a stronger upper trough and surface
front expected Monday. Result will be somewhat of a
roller coaster effect on temps and generally at least a
scattered threat of showers and tstms each day.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Slight weakening of upper ridge
will allow surface boundary to be over northern sections early
Wednesday morning with models generally agreeing on push to near
hwy 70 by afternoon, then stalling and lifting back north wed
night as low pressure moves across mid atlantic region. Boundary
will be a focus for convective development mid-morning through
afternoon and a few storms could be strong to severe per SPC day
2 outlook. Adjusted pops to 30% northern sections late morning
into early afternoon, and to 50% for southern 2 3 of area during
afternoon. Chance pops will continue Wed night with boundary
lifting back north and shortwave moving across. Front will have
limited effect on temps as westerly flow in advance of boundary
still supports MAX temps in mid to upper 90s and heat indices
105-110 for southern 2 3 of area while northern sections held
to lower 90s. NE winds will keep northern outer banks in 80s.

Thursday through Monday... Front to north of area Thu morning
will push south during afternoon and to near ilm Thu night and
will again be a focus for convective development, with some
potential for heavy downpours and a few strong to severe storms.

Increased pops to likely for northern 2 3 of area Thu afternoon
with high chance for southern sections Thu night. High pressure
moving across to north will keep front stalled to south Friday
but models continue to indicate scattered convective threat.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of
inland thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend, and will keep
typical 20% coast 30% inland pops both days. Stronger upper
trough moves and associated cold front moves in from NW Monday
and will have chance pops all zones for now.

Hot and humid conditions will continue Thursday with highs
mainly low to mid 90s and heat indices around 105 inland. Some
relief behind front for Friday with highs in mid to upper 80s.

Heat returns for weekend with around 90 for Saturday and low-mid
90s Sunday, then some cool down expected for Monday.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 625 am tue...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the TAF period. With hot high pressure over the area today,VFR
conditions are expected to continue, with the exception of some
very isolated thunderstorms (best chances at oaj). A weak front
will push into the area tonight, precip will likely remain ne
of the TAF sites but wind shift expected. Winds become more N w
late tonight and early Wed morning.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 400 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary subVFR
conditions possible each day due to scattered thunderstorms.

Some sub-vfr CIGS will be possible with ne-e flow behind front
Friday into Friday night.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1010 am Tuesday... Latest obs show W wnw winds 5-15 kt
north of hatteras with seas 1-3 ft, and wsw winds 10-15 kt south
of hatteras with seas 3-5 ft. An offshore high inland trough
pattern will continue today bringing typical diurnally enhanced
wind pattern. Winds diminish a bit this morning, generally sw
5-15 kt then becoming S 5-15 kt north of hatteras and SW 15-20
kt south of hatteras this afternoon and evening. There could be
a few gusts to 25 kt across the southern central waters and
pamlico sound late afternoon and evening when the peak gradient
occurs related to the sea-breeze development. Seas 3-5 ft south
of hatteras expected to subside to 2-4 ft by late morning. A
weak frontal boundary will approach the waters late today, then
sink southward into the northern waters tonight. Still some
uncertainty in how fast the boundary will move, and where it
stalls late tonight, but seems likely it will not make it south
of hatteras. Not expecting a strong surge behind the front at
this time. Winds north of hatteras becoming NW to NE 5-15 kt.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 400 am Tuesday... Southern half of waters will continue to
see SW winds mainly 10-15 kt into thu, while northern half will
see shifting and variable conditions due to weak front pushing
in from north Wed and then returning north Wed night. Stronger
front expected to push through all waters late Thu into Friday,
producing ne-e winds 10-15 kt. Winds will return to s-sw 10-15
kt by late Saturday with return of inland trough offshore high
pattern. Seas mainly 2-4 feet during period.

Climate
Near record high temperatures will be possible early this week.

Record high temps 6 19 (today)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 1984
greenville 98 1975
jacksonville 97 1984
kinston 100 1944
morehead city 94 1984
new bern 99 1970
record high temps 6 20 (Wednesday)
location temp year
cape hatteras 92 2011
greenville 99 1970
jacksonville 97 1994
kinston 104 1924
morehead city 93 2011
new bern 98 1994

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>095-098-103-104.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk cqd
near term... Dag cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Jbm
aviation... Jbm cqd
marine... Dag jbm cqd
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi52 min WSW 2.9 G 8.9 83°F 82°F1013.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi34 min W 13 G 15 1013.7 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi1.7 hrsW 810.00 miFair83°F77°F82%1013.4 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi40 minVar 58.00 miFair84°F75°F74%1013.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi96 minW 810.00 miFair82°F75°F79%1013.6 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi37 minWNW 710.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW8SW5SW6SW5CalmS9S6SE3S6SW7SW4SW4SW6SW8--SW7--W11W10W9W11W11W8
1 day agoSW10SW7SW8SW7S12S11S14SW12S10SW11SW9SW4S5S6SW11SW8--SW11CalmSE8E9SE5S7S7
2 days agoE9--3NE8SE8SE8S12
G18
S9S6S8S5S4S5S3S3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Tue -- 12:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:59 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:37 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.12.32.21.81.30.70.2-0.1-0.10.10.61.31.82.12.21.91.510.50.200.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:45 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:27 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.21.41.51.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.100.40.711.21.21.10.80.50.30.100.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.