Monday, September25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Dillard, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:23PM Monday September 25, 2017 4:46 PM EDT (20:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:24AMMoonset 10:05PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillard, GA
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location: 35.01, -83.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 251832
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
232 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region through the
middle of week... While hurricane maria is forecast to remain off the
east coast. A cold front will sweep across the area Thursday while
pushing maria out to sea. A secondary cold front crosses Friday
night bringing much cooler air for the weekend into early next week.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 225 pm edt: hurricane maria will continue to drift northward
off the coastal carolinas through the near-term period. The pressure
gradient well west of the system, along with afternoon mixing, will
continue to produce some low end gusts into the upper teens across
the eastern half of our forecast area late this afternoon.

Otherwise, expect mainly just cirrus level impacts, with sky cover
diminishing from southwest through the evening hours.

Model profiles show some degree of moisture trapped under an
inversion, and scattered stratocumulus will be possible east of the
mountains around 5 to 6 kft overnight. Also expect a repeat of low
stratus and fog in the southwest mountain valleys, and possibly in
the french broad valley for a brief window around daybreak.

Otherwise, the low level ridge axis will persist along the
appalachian mountain chain through Tuesday, with low level flow
steadily backing more northerly with time. Expect less cirrus on
Tuesday but slightly more stratocumulus with daytime heating - with
max temps a tick above today's values. A few of the mesoscale models
have isolated ridge top showers in the afternoon but this looks
unlikely given the inversion aloft and lack of upslope flow.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 2:30 pm edt Monday: our forecast area (fa) will initially be
pinched between tropical cyclone maria and an upper level ridge
extending from southern new england, across the ohio and tennessee
valleys, to the western gulf of mexico. The outer fringe's of
cirrus, associated with maria over our eastern fa at the start, will
thin and gradually pull off to the east by Wednesday morning.

Elsewhere clear skies are expected.

A strong subsidence pattern across the area Wednesday, combined with
very favorable compressional effects, and abundant sunshine, should
push temperatures up some 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Meanwhile, we left Wednesday night quiet, with ridging to hold sway
for one more period. Overall no rain and a mild night.

Although winds remain predominately northerly, it appears the cold
front will reach parts of our area late Thursday afternoon in the
north. The GFS offers an increase in clouds, with some spotty light
showers. Those showers should be few and far between, however we
kept a small pop, for a short period late Thursday afternoon, in
those upslope locations in the mountains of western north carolina.

Elsewhere, more dry conditions on tap.

We have knocked temperatures back a few degrees on Thursday, but
more substantial changes will take place beyond this forecast

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 145 pm Monday: the medium range models are in good agreement
to start the period Thursday night then not as good agreement toward
day 7. Maria will be pushed rapidly east across the atlantic as the
cold front interacts with it. With the passage of the dry cold
front and falling heights with the strong shortwave moving SE from
the great lakes, cooler air will be on the way for the weekend. The
gfs is more progressive with the trough axis crossing early Saturday
while the ec waits for Saturday evening to pass the trough axis.

Cool high pressure centered west of the great lakes late Friday
should be centered over michigan late Saturday and shifting off the
east coast Sunday evening. Any development of a low along the
stalled out front deep over florida on Saturday should be far enough
away from our region to have any real affects.

Monday will be a day with increasing cloudiness and appreciable rain
will depend on how the weather pattern sets up with the approach of
a strong shortwave. The old 06z GFS is progressive with the trough
passing from the mississippi valley late Monday morning to the great
lakes and ohio Monday night. Perhaps a brief shot at rain late
Monday and Monday night if this occurs. The ec cuts off a 500mb low
having it centered over memphis early Tuesday. This would create a
strong flow of gulf moisture into our area in the middle of next
week. The new 12z GFS made a radical departure from the previous
run, building a ridge over the east at the start of next week and
keeping us dry. The trough does not get anywhere close to us with
the new gfs. If this is a new trend, we may not get a drop of rain
for a few weeks.

Temperatures will be at or just above normal Friday then fall to 5
to 8 degrees below normal by Sunday then rebound a little on Monday.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
At kclt: bkn cirrus will be the main sky cover through early evening
before scattering from the southwest. Some mid-level stratocumulus
may develop under a weak inversion overnight, but probably with just
sct coverage on average. A few models suggest MVFR level stratus
working westward from the nc central piedmont, but likely remaining
well east of kclt through daybreak. Expect any low end gusts late
this afternoon to dissipate quickly this evening, with generally
light NE flow trending more northerly through Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere: patchy mid-level clouds may form overnight under an
inversion, but the mountain valleys will stand a decent chance of
low stratus and associated river valley fog. Will feature conditions
similar to this morning, except will introduce a window of ifr
around kavl as lamp trends appear a bit more aggressive. Few to sct
cumulus look a bit more likely with heating late in the period as
convective temps appear more in reach. Expect light N to NE winds
less than 10 kt through midday Tuesday.

Outlook: dry conditions are expected most of the week. Under mostly
clear skies and calm conditions, fog and or low stratus are possible
in the mountain river valleys each of the next few mornings. A
mostly dry cold front will cross the region late in the week.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% med 73% low 25% high 85%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC15 mi61 minNNW 310.00 miFair82°F56°F41%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3
1 day agoSW3SW3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4NE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.