Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dillard, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:45PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:07 PM EST (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 5:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillard, GA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 35.01, -83.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kgsp 161815
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
115 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the area
tonight. This front will usher in a quick shot of cold air, with
light snow possible across the forecast area tonight into early
Wednesday. High pressure will slide off the east coast by Friday,
allowing a warming trend for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1245 pm est: frontal band of light snow across the tn valley
continues to edge its way toward the southern appalachians, and will
begin entering far western nc by mid afternoon. Clear skies in
advance of the band has allowed temps to warm well above freezing
across the mtn valleys, thus precip will likely begin as liquid
there, with wet bulb effects allowing for a gradual transition to
snow by late afternoon. Meanwhile, all-snow is expected above 3500
ft or so. Light precip rates and initially dry air suggests at least
a couple of hours of flurries sprinkles before anything begins to
accumulate, but it appears that anywhere from 0.5-1" is likely
across the smokies and vicinity by 00z, while snow will likely be in
progress across the remainder of the mtns by that time.

Tonight, the main point of contention is the uptick in precipitation
amounts forecast across the far eastern zones, as the strong short
wave trough transition from positive to more of a neutral tilt,
resulting in an increase in deep layer forcing. This has always been
the primary concern with this event (and always is in these
situations): whether the increase in precip rates will occur across
our area, or more across the central eastern carolinas. With the
current trends in guidance, a warning will have to be considered for
areas roughly east of a chester->rock hill->concord->salisbury line
(granted this may only include union co, nc.)
otherwise, we feel ok with the rest of the advisory, including
omitting the upper savannah river valley zones, as a consensus of
guidance indicates a bit of weakening of the precip band as it moves
over and off the high terrain (and before the uptick and forcing
reinvigorates it across the piedmont), and much of the precip should
be "wasted" as rain. However, with arctic air surging in behind the
front overnight, it should be emphasized that there will be a
potentially significant black ice concern there (and everywhere
else) tomorrow morning, depending upon how much precip falls this
evening
even though the snow is expected to end within a couple hours of
sunrise across much of the area, very cold temperatures (which will
struggle to make it above freezing in many areas tomorrow), will
result in improving but continued black ice problems across the
mtns.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
As of 330 am est Tuesday: overall, guidance is in good agreement on
the timing of exiting snow to the east Wednesday morning. A little
additional accums may be possible, mainly east of i-77 past 12z wed.

Otherwise, skies should clear out from west to east during the aftn
with a cold nwly wind preventing temps from warming much at all from
the morning lows. Add expected new snow cover, and I think going on
the colder side of guidance makes sense. So temps were adjusted down
with consraw, resulting in highs in the teens to lower 20s in the
mountains and upper 20s to mid 30s piedmont. The nwly winds will
gradually diminish overnight Wednesday night, as temps drop into the
teens (with a few single digits on the highest peaks). This
combination will result in wind chills in the -5 to -15 f range in
the elevations above 3500 ft. Wind chills will be generally in the
single digits above zero in the mountain valleys.

Thursday and Thursday night, sfc high pressure quickly settles in
across the deep south, allowing winds to weaken further and turn
more out of the west-southwest by the aftn. Skies should be mostly
clear and temps should rebound to 40s in most places, except the
highest elevations, helping melt the snow. Depending on how much
snow falls and subsequently melts the following day, there may be
black ice concerns Thursday night. Temps should bottom out in the
upper teens to mid 20s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 300 am est Tuesday: the models are in good agreement for the
medium range, starting with a relatively flat upper flow at 12z
Friday, amplifying into a deep western trough and eastern ridge by
Sunday. At the sfc, high pressure will linger over the southeast on
Friday, then slide east over the weekend, allowing return flow to
set up atop the region. So a warming trend will ensue for the medium
range, leading up to a cold frontal passage on Monday. Guidance
shows basically no SBCAPE with the fropa, so severe threat looks
very low. The front should push thru quickly enough that excessive
rainfall also does not look likely. Temps will start out near normal
Friday, then warm to about 5-10 deg above normal for Saturday and
Sunday. Temps will return to around normal by Tuesday. Pops will
ramp up to high-end chc to low-end likely on Monday. Before that, it
looks dry. The way the sfc low tracks into the great lakes and into
quebec, NW flow snow behind the system looks limited.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere:VFR through the afternoon, with increasing
chances for precipitation, with onset times ranging from early
evening at kavl... To around midnight at kclt. While precip is
expected to begin as -ra at most locations, a transition to -sn is
expected, with a deterioration to ifr once the snow settles in.

Periods of lifr or even vlifr cannot be ruled out within heavy
bursts of snow. Conditions begin improving around daybreak, withVFR
expected at all terminals by around late morning, with skc by early
afternoon. S SW winds at 5-10 kts transition to light NW winds
behind the front this evening into the early part of the overnight.

Outlook: dryVFR condition are expected to continue through the
weekend.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% med 61% med 65%
kgsp high 100% med 79% med 78% high 88%
kavl high 96% med 66% high 84% high 99%
khky high 100% high 88% med 71% high 88%
kgmu high 100% med 78% low 48% high 94%
kand high 100% med 76% med 70% high 94%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC15 mi73 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy44°F24°F46%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrCalmSW4E3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3W14
G19
1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW10
G15
NW11
G17
NW9
G17
NW11
G20
N8N8W6NW7
G15
W3SW3CalmW4W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.