Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dillard, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:25PM Friday November 16, 2018 5:55 PM EST (22:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillard, GA
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location: 35.01, -83.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 161941
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
241 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
A gradual warming trend will develop over the weekend ahead of a
weak cold front approaching from the west. The front will move
through the area on Monday, with moisture mainly limited to the
mountains. A dry, reinforcing cold front will arrive from the
northwest on Wednesday.

Near term through Saturday
As of 215 pm... A quasi-zonal flow will set up aloft across the
eastern CONUS tonight thru Saturday, bringing areas of thin cirrus
across the cwa. At the sfc, cool and dry high pressure will slowly
migrate from the deep south to the mid-atlantic. With clear to
mostly clear skies and winds becoming light, we should have good
radiational cooling overnight. The moist soils and still relatively
warm area lakes may support some patchy fog; otherwise, it should be
quiet with lows mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temps warm a
category or two above today's readings under sunny skies and light
winds. Highs mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s (except a little
cooler in the highest elevations).

Short term Saturday night through Tuesday
As of 120 pm est Friday: west-southwest mid and upper-level flow
remains across the region on Sunday as a positively tilted trough
develops across the central plains states. A weak short wave moves
through the trough and across the area Monday. The trough itself
crosses the area Tuesday, again with some weak short wave energy. At
the surface, weak high pressure remains nosed into the area from the
ne on Sunday. The guidance continues differ on fog response early
Sunday morning. It will be possible given the moist and relatively
warm ground and cool air temps. Will again leave out for now given
the discrepancies. A weak surface wave forms off the sc coast in
response to a southern stream jet streak moving across the SE on
Sunday. This could bring some low level moisture north toward the
clt metro area. However, the moisture is shallow and isentropic lift
weak, so wouldn't expect anything more than clouds for now.

The short wave and upper trough do push a cold front into the area
from the west Monday and across the area Tuesday. The upper features
could induce cyclogenesis with the wave along the sc coast. However,
the bulk of the moisture and lift remain south and east of the area,
so generally only clouds expected. No deep moisture is associated
with the cold front. There is enough low level moisture that could
combine with westerly then northwesterly upslope flow to wring out
some showers along the tn border. The guidance agrees that temp
profiles and partial thickness values are warm enough for precip to
remain liquid, even at night. The exception is above 5000 feet where
temps may be cold enough for freezing rain. Freezing rain would be
expected instead of snow given the shallow nature of the moisture
and relatively warm 850 temps and 850-700 thickness values. A dry
forecast is expected for Tuesday as moisture rapidly diminishes.

Highs will be near to slightly below normal Sunday and Monday then
fall a few degrees Tuesday. Lows will be near to a little below
normal Sunday morning, near normal Monday morning, then near to a
few degrees above normal Tuesday morning.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
As of 225 pm est Friday: confidence is low for the medium range as
the guidance differs on the potential for a gulf low by the end of
the period. The GFS shows heights rising briefly Wednesday and
Thursday before a southern stream short wave crosses the gulf coast
states Thursday then partially phases with a northern stream short
wave as the initial wave moves up the SE coast. At the surface, high
pressure sets up in cold air damming configuration Wednesday and
Thursday. Cyclogenesis takes place near the la coast Thursday. The
low then moves well south across the gulf to southern fl then
northeast well off the SE coast on Friday. This keeps moisture and
precip south of the cwfa both days.

The ECMWF and canadian show heights rising through Thursday as upper
ridging moves in. The ridge moves to the eastern seaboard Friday as
a deep trough digs into the ms valley. At the surface, high pressure
builds in Wednesday with a second high building into damming
configuration behind a weak clipper for Thursday. The high remains
in place for Friday as cyclogenesis takes place along the la coast.

Moisture and precip hold off during the day as the low moves east.

However, they would suggest a wet Saturday.

Given the model differences, have kept the forecast dry for now.

Obviously, a gulf low system would create problems for travel during
the holiday weekend, so we will have to watch this as we move
forward during the week.

For now, expect highs to be near steady 5 to 10 degrees below normal
Wednesday through Friday. Lows should around 5 degrees below normal
with the coldest morning on Thursday.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere:VFR conditions expected thru the 18z taf
period, as dry high pressure builds in from the west. Flat flow
aloft will allow periods of thin cirrus to stream by. Otherwise, the
low-levels look too dry for low clouds or fog, except near bodies of
water. None of the guidance has any fog mention at kavl, so will
keep kavlVFR. Winds should favor a SW direction for the rest of the
aftn, then go light or calm this evening. Winds will briefly start
out favoring a NE direction Saturday morning, but quickly toggle to
s SE by midday.

Outlook:VFR conditions and quiet weather will likely prevail this
weekend. There may be increasing chances of late night early morning
fog in the mountain valleys and near area lakes as we head into next
week.

Confidence table...

19-01z 01-07z 07-13z 13-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC15 mi75 minN 410.00 miFair55°F36°F50%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW6NW10
G15
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NE4CalmCalmSW3NW6N4NW5NW9
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1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4S5SE3S4SW8
2 days agoW5W6W4W4W5CalmCalmW3CalmNW4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.