Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 11:24 PM   Moonset 7:52 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 271817 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 217 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
We can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...The latest 500 mb RAP analysis shows an upper ridge extending along the East Coast. This ridge will remain in place through the duration of the near term forecast period.
Meanwhile at the sfc, high pressure will be centered over New England/the Mid-Atlantic region this evening before gradually sinking southward towards the Southeast Coast overnight into Sunday.
This pattern will lead to warm and mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend. The only exception is that SE'ly flow may allow some isolated showers to develop later this afternoon into early this evening (per the latest CAMs) across the far southeastern tier of the forecast area and along the Blue Ridge Escarpment (thanks to SE'ly upslope flow). However, confidence remains too low for a mentionable PoP at this time, so maintained dry conditions through this evening. Despite broken to overcast cloud cover across most of the forecast area this afternoon, with the exception of the northern and central NC mountains, highs will end up around climo today. Lows tonight will end up around 5-8 degrees above climo thanks to both S'ly flow and lingering cloud cover. Winds will turn more SW'ly on Sunday and with mostly sunny skies expected, temps Sunday afternoon will end up a few degrees warmer compared to what we will see this afternoon. So, Highs should end up around 3-5 degrees above climo tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1205 PM EDT Saturday: It will continue to heat up to start off the period as lingering deep layered ridging continues to suppress any deep convection as temperatures climb into the lower 80s Monday afternoon. There should be just enough forcing and convergence along an approaching weak cool front to support a round of numerous showers and embedded, mainly garden variety, tstms in the mountains at some point on Tuesday. The consensus among the latest model guidance maintains a response as this feature translates into the piedmont Tuesday afternoon with another day of lower 80s expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1240 PM EDT Saturday: There is better agreement today among the latest runs of the op GFS and ECMWF that in the wake of Tuesday's s/wv passage, that s/wv ridging will translate atop the region during Wednesday reducing any potential shower development chances. Otherwise, shaping to a rather warm Spring day, solid middle 80s across the lower elevations. For the rest of the work week, shaping up to be increasingly active with daily diurnally enhanced tstm chances within the increasingly moist and unstable return flow ahead of the next steadily advancing cool front.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry conditions will continue across the terminals through the 18Z TAF forecast period. Low-end wind gusts are being reported at KCLT so have a TEMPO in place to account for intermittent gusts through this afternoon. Passing upper cirrus continues over the area this afternoon with low-end VFR to high-end MVFR cumulus in place thanks to daytime heating. Cumulus should dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. VFR is generally expected outside of afternoon cumulus again on Sunday.
Wind direction should be mainly S/SE through late tonight. Winds on Sunday will be S/SW'ly. Cloud cover looks to linger through the overnight hours before gradually thinning out early Sunday morning.
KAVL may see some patchy fog develop overnight into daybreak Sunday so have this accounted for in the TAF.

Outlook: Dry weather lingers through Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area on Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated/scattered diurnal convection on Wednesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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