Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dillard, GA

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Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:05 AM EDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 12:15AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillard, GA
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location: 35.01, -83.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 191044
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
644 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
An upper level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS through
Tuesday with abundant gulf moisture persisting over the region. A
fairly robust reinforcing upper trough and its associated cold front
will bring additional widespread showers and thunderstorms late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. In the front's wake, drier high pressure
will spread over the area for the latter half of the work week.

Near term through tonight
As of 630 am: seeing a few showers developing occasionally in the
westerly upslope areas of the mtns near the tn border, so the
small precip chance over the WRN fringe of the fcst area looks
warranted. With so much low level moisture available, there is
probably more coverage of light precip below the radar beam as
that moisture is forced upward.

At first blush, today looks like it might not be as active
as Saturday, as a short wave will be to the east at daybreak
with no significant mid upper forcing expected through the
afternoon. However, we have not had an air mass change, so we
should get moderately unstable again once the morning stratus burns
off. What's more... Subtle cooling and drying at mid levels has
improved the mid-level lapse rates just enough to increase potential
for buoyancy... With better looking CAPE profiles east of the mtns
later in the day. Would not at all be surprised to see fewer storms,
but more of them becoming strong to severe. High temps will be
similar to yesterday. The storms may linger well into the evening
before dissipating. Will hold onto a chance over the WRN mountains
because of the sustained weak upslope into the smokies through
daybreak Monday. Low temps will be slightly above normal again.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 315 am edt Sunday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Monday with a persistent upper shortwave trough centered over the
mid-atlantic. Heights aloft will briefly build during the day on
Monday as a weak upper ridge builds over the southeast. On tues,
a broader upper trof will gradually approach the fcst area from
the west and move its axis over the cwfa early wed.

At the sfc, a trough axis will persist and bisect the region on
Monday and help serve as a weak focusing mechanism for afternoon
convection. There will likely be enough sfc-based instability and
low-level moisture content (max pw values remain near 2 inches)
to overcome any weak subsidence from the upper ridge overhead.

Thus, afternoon convective coverage is expected to remain sct to
numerous from east to west across the fcst area with brief periods
of heavy rainfall possibly persisting long enough to cause isolated
flooding issues. On tues, the upper trof will be deamplifying as
the bulk of the energy lifts NE and over the great lakes. An
associated cold front will approach the area later in the day and
should enhance diurnal convective coverage especially over the
higher terrain. Heavy rainfall potential could be enhanced by
upper-level diffluence ahead of the trof axis. High temperatures
are expected to remain near normal over the mountains and foothills
and slightly above normal over the piedmont. Low temps will remain
roughly 2 to 4 degrees above normal as dewpts remain high.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 240 am edt Sunday: the extended fcst picks up at 12z on Wednesday
with broad upper trofing moving across the eastern CONUS while upper
ridging is maintained to the west. The trof axis is expected to dig
farther south as it moves over the cwfa on Thursday. By early Friday,
heights will begin to recover as the trof lifts farther to the ne
and the upper ridge spreads eastward. The ridge is expected to remain
over the region thru day 7.

At the sfc, a fairly robust cold front (for august) will be moving
east of the cwfa by the start of the period. In its wake, cooler and
drier high pressure will spread over the area from the NW and linger
into the weekend. By sat, the high will be moving off the east coast
causing low-lvl winds to become more wly and swly and allowing deeper
moisture and increased humidity to return over the area. As for the
sensible wx, no major changes were needed with mostly dry conditions
for the first part of the period and slight to solid chance pops for
fri and sat. Temperatures will be near normal for Wednesday and then
cool to about a category below normal for the rest of the period.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
At kclt and elsewhere: widespread low stratus has developed across
the region early this morning, so all terminals start out at
least low-end MVFR. However, several will feature an ifr ceiling
as a prevailing condition until 13z to 14z when the boundary
layer should lift the cloud bases into the MVFR range. Wind will
be light from the sw. After the low clouds are taken care of,
daytime heating should eventually help to develop another round
of showers and storms. Might not be as active as Saturday, but
the cams still develop great enough coverage to suggest a 4-hr
tempo window in the afternoon at all sites, with an additional
prob30 stretching into the evening. Wind will generally remain
sw outside of thunderstorms. Convective debris will be the rule
after the daytime storms dissipate this late evening.

Outlook: expect decent coverage of mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Drier high pressure may build in
behind a passing front on Thursday. Until then, restrictions are
expected mainly during the morning as low clouds forms, and then
under any afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence table...

10-16z 16-22z 22-04z 04-06z
kclt med 75% high 97% high 100% high 100%
kgsp med 72% high 94% high 100% high 100%
kavl med 72% med 66% high 100% high 91%
khky med 66% high 97% high 100% high 83%
kgmu low 55% high 97% high 100% high 100%
kand med 66% high 89% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC15 mi75 minN 07.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmE3CalmNE3E3CalmSE6S4S4SE5CalmCalmSE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmSE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.