Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Dillard, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday April 26, 2018 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillard, GA
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location: 35.01, -83.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 252355
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
755 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

An area of low pressure will cross the region Thursday through early
Friday, bringing rain chances back to the area. High pressure will
build across our area this weekend and persist into early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 745 pm: still seeing some shower activity over northeast tn
moving up the W slope of the mountains, so we retain the chance
of precip on the tn border into the middle part of the evening,
but also retained the downward trend late this evening. Still
expecting the shower activity to diminish by 06z or so. Temp trends
look fine. Otherwise... Persistent cloud cover should help maintain
the trend of above-normal min temps.

Another upper low will kick out across the lower miss valley
tonight, gradually weakening and evolving into an open wave as it
moves across the southeast on Thursday, reaching the carolinas by
the end of the period. A convective band associated with strong
(albeit weakening) UVV within warm conveyor belt is expected to
begin moving into the forecast area from the west by noon-ish
Thursday. Although operational guidance is in good agreement
regarding the overall synoptic pattern, differences in the details
are fairly significant, especially regarding the surface response.

The NAM features a more intense surface cyclone (that moves across
our forecast area) along with a slower evolution, resulting in
more destabilization along with stronger shear parameters than in
the other operational guidance. If the 12z NAM verifies closest to
reality, we will be dealing with a decent severe convective set
up across the area tomorrow afternoon into the evening, and the
day 2 marginal risk recently introduced by SPC seems reasonable
in light of this. The 18z nam, however, has come in more in line
with the other guidance, which lowers the confidence in any severe
threat for tomorrow.

Otherwise, likely to categorical pops overspread all but the
eastern zones by the end of the day, with one quarter to one half
inch rainfall amounts expected over much of the western half of
the area by the end of the period. MAX temps are expected to be
very close to normal across the eastern third or so of the area
tomorrow, with denser cloud cover and increasing precip potential
supporting a forecast of up to 5 degrees below normal across the
remainder of the area.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 220 pm edt Wednesday: the short term fcst picks up at 00z on
Friday with an upper trof axis lifting up and over the cwfa as another,
deeper trof dives down the backside of a much broader upper lvl trof
pattern. This second trof axis is expected to reach the fcst area early
sat and move NE of the cwfa later in the day, however the region will
remain under the broader trof pattern into the extended period. At the
sfc, another low pressure system will move over the fcst area early fri
and quickly lift north of the area thru the day. In its wake, drier
high pressure will gradually spread over the region from the west and
remain over the region into the extended period. As for the sensible
fcst no significant changes were made to the current fcst. It is notable
that SPC just updated their day 2 convective outlook and now include all
of our sc zones in a marginal risk area. The latest model runs are showing
increased amounts of sfc-based instability late thurs early fri, so more
numerous thunderstorms are likely, however the severe potential still looks
low. Otherwise, precip chances remain high thru early Fri morning and then
taper off thru the rest of the day. High temps will be near normal for
both Fri and sat, with lows a few degrees above normal each day.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 145 pm Wednesday: no sigfnt changes were made to the going fcst.

Good confidence is had in the overall pattern beginning the period
which features a developing h5 ridge to the west supporting a stg
canadian sfc high building into the fa. This high will be the main
synoptic feature thru the period as it slowly shifts east across the
southeastern states. With a stg sub inversion setting up and no
sigfnt moisture transport forced into the ridge... The atmos will
remain quite dry with weak flow thru the column. MAX temps will
likely begin the period a little below normal as a llvl thermal trof
begins to modify. As the ulvl ridge shifts east Monday... Increasing
thicknesses will rise and along with very good insol... MAX temps
shud have no problem reaching a cat or so abv normal thru the
period. Min temps will follow the same general trend with a seasonal
diurnal curve anticipated. Surface rh values will come close to fds
levels across NE ga on Sunday... But besides that no fire wx concerns
are had with this fcst package.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere:VFR overnight and Thursday morning. There
is a small chance that valley fog could develop around kavl, but
not enough to mention in this fcst. Winds will become light N ne
overnight before turning toward the SE around midday Thursday as
low pressure approaches from the west. A compact upper sfc low
is expected to move into the area in the late afternoon and then
across the region in the evening. Low clouds will move in from the
west along with scattered showers in the early afternoon. An MVFR
ceiling is expected to prevail for the better part of the afternoon,
while shower activity becomes more numerous in coverage. Most tafs
feature a prob30 starting in the early afternoon to handle the
uncertainty with shower arrival, and then transition to a prevailing
MVFR ceiling vis with steadier showers in mid late afternoon. The
exception is kclt, where confidence in the restriction is not high
enough in the early evening, so they were keptVFR. Wind direction
will become variable in late afternoon and remain that way until
after the low passes.

Outlook: restrictions should end Friday morning as dry air moves
in from the west behind the departing low. A dry cold front will
approach from the northwest early in the weekend, with dryVFR
conditions likely persisting into early next week.

Confidence table...

00-06z 06-12z 12-18z 18-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 94%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 81%
kavl high 96% high 94% high 91% high 91%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 82%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 99% med 74%
kand high 100% high 100% high 96% med 77%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC15 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F47°F78%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmW3NW5N4NW3NW5NW4N4W4N6N4NW5NW10N9NW10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NW3NW4NW5W4W4NW5CalmNW5N8N3N5NW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE5CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4W4CalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.