Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:59PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 6:37 AM EDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 260942
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
542 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will move northeast of the area today.

A cold front will move into the area Thursday, stall and then
slowly push through Friday night into Saturday night. High
pressure will build in from the north behind the front late this
weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 520 am wed... GOES east night fog product seems to have a
solid grasp on the area of low stratus and fog this morning,
indicating that the stratus fog coverage has expanded to
include much of the area. Most observations away from the
immediate coast have reported visibility around 1 4 to 1 2
statute miles for the past several hours, and with no
indications that conditions will improve, but rather may
deteriorate further, a dense fog advisory has been issued for
much of the area through 9 am. Visibility should begin to
improve shortly after sunrise as solar insulation encourages
mixing.

Today... Modest ridging will fill in locally as low pressure
departs the area toward the northeast and a cold front crosses
the appalachians. This will work to keep mainly dry conditions
and well above normal temps in place. Ample morning sunshine and
a warm continental airmass in place will allow temps to climb
into the upper 80s for most, with some inland areas challenging
90, aided by prefrontal compressional heating in the afternoon.

By late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms associated with
the main area of moisture convergence working across the
piedmont may begin to work into the area from the west.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 330 am wed... A cold front will approach the area from the
west, steadily slowing as it works across the piedmont in
response to the parent low quickly lifting across eastern canada
and low-to-mid level flow turning more zonal. Overall, an
active night is in store as the primary band of prefrontal
moisture convergence moves over the area, bringing scattered
showers, with a few rumbles of thunder possible, across the area
through the night. The severe threat is low due to lack of
significant instability, but localized flooding issues cannot be
ruled out given the already saturated soils. However, storms
should be progressive enough to preclude any significant
flooding threat. Temps will remain well above normal as most of
the area remains south of the front and overcast skies limit
radiational cooling.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 320 am wed... Challenging forecast Thursday through early
in the weekend as a cold front is forecast to impact the area.

The front will likely push into the northern portions of the
area Thursday, then lift back north Thursday night, before then
slowly pushing back southward and through the rest of the area
fri night into Sat night. The GFS continues to trend much faster
with the frontal passage than the ecmwf, which does not push
through front through the southern areas until Sat night.

Continued to trend with the previous forecast and wpc favoring
the slower frontal passage.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Thursday
through Saturday, with best chances during peak heating Thu and
fri. Modest instability, 0-6km shear 25-35 kt, and steep low level
lapse rates support TSTM development, with the best chance for
strong storms Thu and Fri during peak heating. SPC has included
most of eastern nc in a marginal risk for severe storms
Thursday, with the potential for some stronger storms with
damaging wind gusts to develop. Pwats increase to around 2
inches thu, so could see periods of moderate to heavy rain as
well. Low level thicknesses support highs Thursday in the
low mid 80s, cooler across the northern areas closer to the
front. Could see temps warm a few degrees for Friday with front
north of the area and low level SW wsw flow allowing temps to
warm into the low to upper 80s. Overnight lows in the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

A drier and more stable airmass moves in behind the front
Sunday into early next week as high pressure builds in from the
north. Temps will be cooler with highs mainly in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with dewpoints dropping into the 60s. Overnight
lows in the 60s.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Wednesday evening ...

as of 130 am wed... Lifr conditions are being observed currently
at all terminals, and are expected to persist through the night
as low pressure passes over eastern north carolina. Ceiling and
visibility should improve as modest mixing begins around
sunrise, but a few hours of MVFR conditions are possible right
after sunrise beforeVFR conditions ensue for the rest of the
day. Visibility and ceiling restrictions are possible once again
early Thursday morning.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 320 am wed... PredVFR conditions expected much of the
period though patchy late night early morning fog possible each
morning. Scattered showers and storms expected through Saturday,
with best chances during peak heating each day. A slow moving
front will cross the area Fri night into Sat night, with airmass
drying out late weekend into early next week.

Marine
Short term through wed
as of 215 am wed... Weak low pressure will track across the
coastal waters through Wednesday morning. Generally light winds
will shift in response to the track of this low. Small craft
advisories will begin to come down Wednesday afternoon evening
as the medium period east- southeasterly swell gradually recedes
through the period.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 320 am wed... Tough forecast Thursday through the weekend
as a cold front moves into the area. The front will likely push
into the northern waters Thursday, and could stall near the
albemarle sound and northern waters, then lift back north
Thursday night, before then slowly pushing back southward and
through the waters Fri night into Sat night. The GFS continues
to trend much faster with the frontal passage than the ecmwf,
which does not push through front through the southern waters
until Sat night. Main change with this package was to increase
the winds and seas behind the front, with guidance showing a
stronger NE surge 15-20 kt with seas building to 4-6 ft. Still
some uncertainty regarding the timing, which will depend on when
the front eventually pushes through. A period of SCA conditions
will be possible this weekend into early next week. Strong high
pressure will build in behind the front Sunday and Monday,
keeping a moderate NE ene flow across the waters.

Hydrology
As of 3 am wed... Rivers levels will continue to gradually drop
over the next several days. Major flooding is still occurring at
the neuse river in kinston with moderate to minor flooding at
other locations along contentnea creek as well as the neuse and
se CAPE fear rivers in the mhx forecast area. Heed all local law
enforcement instructions and do not drive into flooded
roadways.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ncz029-044-
045-079-080-090>095-098.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for amz150-152-
154.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for amz156.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for amz158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cb
short term... Cb
long term... Cqd
aviation... Cqd cb
marine... Cqd cb
hydrology... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi38 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 82°F1017.6 hPa (-0.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi38 min W 8 G 9.9 1017.3 hPa (-0.0)
41063 44 mi38 min NW 12 G 16

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G11
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N7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi44 minWNW 52.00 miOvercast74°F73°F100%1017.1 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi44 minNW 63.00 miFog/Mist72°F72°F100%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6N7NW6N6E3E6E3E4E7E7NE7NE7NE7NE6E4NE6N7NE9NE9NE11NE11NE10NE9
1 day agoN4N5NW3NW53NE4NE5E5E4SE5SE6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmSW4SW4W6NW6NW4
2 days agoN16
G21
N12
G19
N12N10NE10N8NE7N5E3E3CalmN5N6N3N3N4N5N6N4N5N3N5N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.