Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:04 AM   Moonset 12:49 PM

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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of today - SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.

AMZ100 1000 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will build in today with multiple disturbances crossing the area over the next few days.

FXUS62 KMHX 021411 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1011 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing multiple chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 1011 AM Thu...No big changes needed with am update. All fog has burned off mid morning as previously forecasted.
Utilized hourly HRRR to capture hourly sea breeze propagation this afternoon. Lowered max T's for immediate coastal locales by a degree or two, but rest of fcst is on track.

Prev disc...As of 7:20 AM Thursday...The Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect area wide until 9 AM but satellite imagery shows the fog starting to dissipate, so the advisory may be able to be canceled early.

Previous Discussion
As of 4 AM Thursday
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect area wide until 9 AM for fog limiting visibility to 1 mile or less. After the fog mixes out later this morning, ridging will move overhead today. This will send high temps to nearly 90 across the coastal plain while the beaches stay in the upper 70s. Winds will be light and variable today until the afternoon seabreeze pushes through. No shower or storm development is expected along the seabreeze given the limited moisture in the column.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 4 AM Thursday...Tonight will be similar to last night.
Lows will bottom out around 60 and another round of fog is in the cards. Cloud cover will hang around and winds will be light to calm out of the SSW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 0330 Thursday...Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week. Best rain chances on Sunday

Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.

Weekend...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week.
Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-50% Monday, 15-30% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the originally dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday.

Early next Week...Upper ridging builds back over the area Tuesday behind a weak shortwave passing Monday. Shortwave and remnants of the weekend's front/SFC trough will lead to some precip Mon. Temps rebound next week with highs expected to reach back into 80s Mon and Tues, 90s Wed.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 7:20 AM Thursday...The widespread dense fog that covered the area overnight is starting to dissipate. All TAF sites are expected to return to VFR within an hour or two and stay VFR for the rest of the day. Fog is possible again tonight with guidance hinting at LIFR VIS for EWN and OAJ, but I kept the forecast at MVFR for now to see how things trend through the day.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Winds will be light (5 kt or less) and variable for much of the day but will slightly increase in speed (5-10 kt) as they transition to southerly and then eventually southwesterly by tomorrow morning.
Seas will be about 2 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday. North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday- Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:00 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:38 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:08 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:59 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,