Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:28PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:19 AM EST (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:30AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 658 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Today..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S late. Seas 1 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. NEar shore, seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221156
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
656 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move through Tuesday. High pressure will pass
through from the west Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 7 am mon... No changes needed for update. High pressure
off the coast will continue to move further east today, with the
cold front approaching from the west. Mostly clear skies this
morning will give way to increasing clouds from the south as
moisture increases. Southerly flow will make for a mild day,
with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s over inland locations.

Cooler highs along the outer banks with the southerly flow
coming off the cooler water, in the lower 60s.

Short term Tuesday through 6 am Tuesday
As of 3 am mon... An upper low lifts from the central plains
toward the great lakes while the cold front moves through the
appalachians by late Monday night. Light showers will spread in
from the west, especially after midnight ahead of the front.

Increasing southerly flow brings low level warm air advection.

Low temps will likely occur this evening, then gradually rise
overnight. Low temps will be very mild with southerly flow and
expect lows in the mid 50s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 3 am Monday... A strong cold front will bring a threat of
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. High
pressure building in will bring dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures Tuesday night through Friday. A warming trend will
occur this weekend with another threat for showers Saturday
night and Sunday.

Tuesday... A robust frontal system approaches the region Tuesday
and is progged to push across the region Tuesday afternoon.

Still expecting a high shear low CAPE scenario with models
indicating 0-6km bulk shear up to around 70kt but very little
cape per the gfs ECMWF while the NAM has a little higher cape
values to around 500 j kg. Cannot rule out an isolated storm
bringing strong wind gusts but with better forcing for ascent
displaced to the north with moist profiles expect the overall
severe threat to be minimal at this time. Models are not
bringing much QPF with this system with precip amount around a
quarter inch. Continued very mild with highs in the lower 70s
inland but cooler water temps will hold temps in the low to mid
60s along the coast.

Tuesday night through Friday..Broad upper troughing continues
across the eastern CONUS with high pressure across the southern
southern plains Wednesday. A mid level disturbance and sfc
trough pushes across the region late Wednesday Wednesday night
and could see a few more clouds across the region but the
airmass remains very dry with pw values only around a third of
an inch and don't expect any precipitation. Will see height
rises across the region Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge
builds into the region keeping dry conditions. Sfc high pressure
builds in from the west Thursday and begins to push offshore
Friday. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the
low mid 50s and lows in the low mid 30s. Coastal sections will
be cooler with highs mainly in the mid upper 40s and lows in the
mid to upper 30s.

Saturday through Sunday... The upper ridge and sfc high pressure
continues to slide eastward Saturday as a robust upper trough
and sfc cold front approach the region from the west. Could see
a few WAA showers Saturday night as increasing southerly flow
brings increasing moisture across the region but models
depicting best forcing for ascent to occur Sunday into Sunday
evening. At this time, models indicating another high shear
environment but even less instability than Tuesday's event with
li's remaining positive. Southerly flow bring warmer temps with
highs climbing into the 60s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along
the coast.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight
as of 7 am mon... High pressure off the coast will move further
east today while a cold front approaches from the west tonight,
with light southerly flow through tonight.VFR ceilings today,
then MVFR ceilings arrive this evening as clouds increase ahead
of the front. Light showers also possible, mainly after
midnight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... A strong frontal system pushes across the
region Tuesday with a period of sub-vfr conditions and gusty
southerly winds expected across rtes. Pred-vfr expected Tuesday
night through Friday as high pressure builds into the region for
the latter half of the week.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 7 am mon... Zones look good. No changes needed. High
pressure off the coast moves further east today, with a cold
front approaching from the west tonight. Very light winds in
loose pressure gradient today, less than 10 knots with seas only
around 1 foot. Conditions quickly deteriorate tonight ahead of
the front, with the pressure gradient tightening up. Winds on
the coastal waters and pamlico sound will increase to 15-20
knots, with seas building to 2-3 feet north of oregon inlet and
3-5 feet south. Winds on the albemarle sound and area rivers
will increase to 10-15 knots after midnight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... Sly flow continues to increase Tuesday
ahead of strong frontal system and expect ssw winds to around
20-30 kt and could see gusts near gale force gusts, especially
across the outer portions of the central southern waters near
the gulf stream where better mixing will occur. Seas around 4-6
ft early Tuesday build to around 6-11 ft Tuesday afternoon. Will
issue a SCA for the coastal waters and pamlico sound with this
package. Confidence is not high enough to issue an SCA for the
albemarle sound or rivers at this time as very cold waters will
likely limit mixing but cannot rule out a few gusts to around 25
kt. The front pushes across the waters late Tuesday with winds
becoming W NW around 10-20 kt Tuesday night and early Wednesday
with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft Wednesday morning. Winds diminish
5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon but a mid level disturbance and sfc
trough move across the region Wednesday night that will serve
to increase wind back to 10-20 kt into Thursday morning before
becoming N around 5-15 kt Thursday afternoon. Nly winds less
than 15 kt Friday gradually veer to easterly by late in the day
with seas around 2-3 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 3 am est Wednesday
for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Tuesday to midnight est Tuesday
night for amz150.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa
short term... Hsa
long term... Sk
aviation... Hsa sk
marine... Hsa sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi49 min Calm G 1 42°F 47°F1023.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi79 min Calm G 1 1023.5 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi25 minN 07.00 miFair33°F33°F100%1023.5 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi84 minWSW 37.00 miClear37°F35°F93%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3W3NW4NW3CalmW6NE4E5NE5NE4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4SW5SW7SW7SW11SW13W10
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W8W7SW4S6SW5SW5SW6SW4SW5SW6SW6SW43W4W4W4
2 days agoW8W5W5W4SW9W8W5W8SW7SW6CalmS6SW5W4SW4SW7SW4SW6SW4SW4SW5SW3SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:08 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM EST     1.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:36 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.71.30.90.50.20.10.20.511.51.821.81.51.10.60.2-0-00.20.61.11.6

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:36 AM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:51 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:35 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.90.70.50.30.100.10.30.60.91.11.21.10.90.60.40.1-0-00.10.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.