Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

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Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday July 22, 2018 10:32 AM EDT (14:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 917 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Rest of today..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 4 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then showers and tstms likely this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221346
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
946 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low
pressure to the west and southwest through midweek. Associated
warm and moist southerly flow will produce above normal chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 940 am Sunday... Initial band of showers tstms has moved
north into northeast nc and southeast va at mid-morning and per
latest high-resolution models, should see a few dry hours across
the region. Instability is quite high across the southern cwa
currently where sunshine is prevalent. Surface-based li's are
around -8 to -9 are currently being observed on mesoscale
analysis and most of the CWA remains in the marginal threat of
severe storms through the balance of the day as approaching
shortwave later this afternoon evening could trigger around
round of storms. Precipitable water is quite a bit less than
yesterday, but still at 1.62 inches on the 12z mhx sounding and
some heavy downpours will be possible in the stronger storms. In
terms of pops, latest hrrr rap nssl WRF supports chance pops
through early afternoon, then likely pops this afternoon as
activity re-fires inland and drifts toward the coast. No
changes to forecast highs of 85-90 as many areas already
approaching the mid 80s and mid-morning.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 340 am Sunday... Digging upper low to w-sw will keep deep
moisture axis across area with pw AOA 2 inches with broken
coverage of showers storms continuing through the night.

Isolated severe storms will remain possible but locally
excessive rainfall will be more of a threat with repeating
cells possibly producing amounts of 2-3 inches overnight.

Southerly flow will keep min temps in mid to upper 70s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 300 am Sunday... A warm and moist southerly flow will
persist through this week due to lingering low pressure to the
west and high pressure over the western atlantic ocean, leading
to unsettled weather conditions from through much of next week.

Monday through Wednesday... Deep, warm, and moist southerly flow
will persist through much of the upcoming week between broad
low pressure aloft over the deep south states and western
atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for widespread
showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during peak heating
and when periodic shortwaves move through mean flow aloft.

Timing of midlevel features remains the unknown at this time.

The highest chances for rain will be roughly Monday afternoon
through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up over eastern
nc with an elongated axis of very high pwats stretching from the
tropical western atlantic ocean. Given persistence amongst
guidance over the past several runs, have increased pops
slightly during this time frame, with the potential for 2 to 5
inches of rainfall, highest closer to the coast, Monday through
Wednesday. Will continue to highlight flood potential in hwo.

While moisture will be abundant, instability and shear will be
marginal for supporting widespread severe convection; thus
expect diurnally-driven isolated severe storm potential each
afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday... The persistent upper trough to our
west finally fills and shifts northeast from the deep south
states towards the mid-atlantic, with high pressure continuing
offshore. Another deep trough digs into the northern great lakes
region, which will shift the moisture advection from S SE to
southwesterly. Expect convection to be more diurnally focused
each day with a more typical summertime pattern.

Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be a few degrees
below climatological normals, ranging from highs in the mid to
upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s for the coast. Temps will
rise to average late july temperatures by Thursday through the
weekend. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s
throughout the week.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through 06z Sunday ...

as of 200 am Sunday... CurrentVFR all sites expected to prevail
most of the night but a tempo period of ifr stratus just below
1k ft also likely for sites west of kewn mainly 08z-12z. Mid-
level dry slot currently keeping precip west and east of area
will continue rest of night, then deepening southerly flow and
moisture expected to produce scattered to broken coverage of
convective activity afternoon into evening with brief periods of
sub-vfr possible. Southerly winds will gust up to 20 kt this
afternoon.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Periodic sub-vfr conditions are expected
through Thursday as an unsettled pattern develops across eastern
nc. Southerly flow will persist through much of next week.

Lowered ceilings and visibilities will be more likely Monday
afternoon through Wednesday, then during the overnight hours for
locations that receive precipitation and that can become
calm decouple prior to sunrise early each morning.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 945 am Sunday... Winds have dropped a bit this morning, but
all model guidance indicates increasing winds this afternoon and
will make no major changes to forecast or advisories at this
time. Southerly winds should increase to 15-25 knots on the
coastal waters and pamlico sound this afternoon with seas
building from 3-5 feet this morning to 6-8 feet by later
tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 300 am Sunday... SCA conditions expected to start the week
with SE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-8 ft. Low end SCA conditions
are expected over the waters from Tuesday through Thursday when
moderate S SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low pressure well
west of the waters and high pressure across the western atlantic
ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes
of the coastal waters. While boating conditions will be poor for
most of the period, conditions will be exacerbated by a prolonged
period of showers and thunderstorms from approximately Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. Winds and seas will eventually fall
below SCA levels by late week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt Thursday for amz150-152-
154-156-158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Ctc
short term... Jbm
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag jbm
marine... Dag ctc jbm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi38 min S 9.9 G 12 83°F 81°F1010 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi32 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 1010.1 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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NW4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi38 minS 13 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F72%1009.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi38 minS 10 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F78°F85%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W9NW11W9W10
G18
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W9W6SW5S4S6S6S5S4S5S6SW5S4S5SE4CalmS5SE8S13
G19
1 day agoE6E7E6E7NE7E4E8
G15
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E7NE8NE11E8E3E4NE6SE5E3E6E6NE4NE5NW5NW4N6
2 days agoE7E6NE74E7E8E6E8E7E10E5E5E4NE5NE4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5NE7E3E7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.81.21.61.81.81.61.20.90.50.20.20.40.81.31.82.12.22.11.91.510.6

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:46 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.30.50.70.9110.90.70.40.20.10.10.20.40.81.11.31.41.31.10.90.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.