Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Trail, NC

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Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:53 AM EDT (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:27PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Trail, NC
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location: 35.07, -80.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 200534
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
134 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Seasonal temperatures and humid conditions will persist over the
next few days with showers and thunderstorms typical for this
time of year. We should see a break on Friday, but showers and
thunderstorms will return over the weekend.

Near term through today
A line of convec is now moving into the far SW nc mtns. These storms
have been producing strong outflows... However the latest cams show a
weakening trend over the next few hrs. Will have to keep an eye on
hydro as the line slows as moves thru the central NRN mtns... .Where
antecedent conds remain fairly high. Still... Not anticipating high
nor increasing rainfall rates as updrafts weaken and the line
becomes more disorganized.

As of 1035 pm edt: we still have a few isolated showers lingering
over the cwfa late this evening. The main concern overnight and into
the morning is an approaching line of convection that is currently
well to our nw. The latest cams have been weakening this system as
it approaches the cwfa tomorrow morning, and its looking pretty
meager as it moves across our area. Otherwise, as the upstream
trough moves east over the area on Thursday, another line of
convection will likely push thru the cwfa in the afternoon evening.

This activity could quickly blow up just east of the area by early
afternoon. Then, another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms could occur during the afternoon hours nearer the
approaching trof and advancing sfc cold front. The one point of
confidence is that bulk shear values will experience a strong
uptick, with sfc to 3 km values of 40 to 45 kt traversing the area
Thursday. Therefore, instability will have to be monitored closely.

Another issue will be the gradient flow and mixing as westerly winds
increase. Anticipate numerous gusts near 25 mph or greater for
Thursday, and wind gusts along the higher peaks could approach 40
mph at times. Expect minimum temperatures to run 5 to 10 degrees
above climatology overnight and then near climo Thursday afternoon.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
As of 245 pm edt Wednesday: confidence remains high that we
will end the work week with a pretty quiet weather day area wide
following a weak frontal passage late Friday night. The associated
upper-level shortwave trough will have propagated east by early
Friday morning, leaving our area underneath northwest flow aloft
and a weak downsloping low-level wind. The result will be a return
to slightly above-normal temperatures for Friday afternoon, with
highs reaching the lower 90s along and S of the i-85 corridor.

Guidance logically depicts mid-level warming in the column which
should keep a cap on convection save for one or two isolated
elevations along the tennessee border.

The upper-ridge axis centered over the mississippi river valley
will amplify to our west later Friday into Saturday in response to
a deepening western CONUS trough. Guidance is still bullish on
propagating pieces of shortwave energy south and east within the
northwest flow downstream from the midwest to the ohio valley and
towards the southern appalachians. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement that this first pulse of vorticity will approach our
region overnight Friday, but there remains disparity between the
guidance on if there will be any organized convection capitalizing
on the forcing. Meanwhile, a remnant frontal boundary will
be in the vicinity of our area and may still linger across the
area through Saturday before lifting northeast as a warm front.

Due to the uncertainty, pops gradually increase over the western
mountains early Saturday morning and confidence is somewhat higher
for activity during the day Saturday. Numerous showers and storms
are expected over the mountains, which will be longitudinally
closer to progged shortwave energy aloft. SBCAPE values are quite
robust along and just south of the frontal boundary, with nam
values peaking at 3-4k j kg over the SW half of our CWA and the
gfs producing 1500-2800 j kg. The differences in instability are
in part due to the fact that the GFS stabilizes the area somewhat
following passage of MCS remnants early Saturday morning whereas
the NAM shows no such activity. As a result of the uncertainty,
confidence in the MAX temperature forecast is below average,
though the official forecast assumes enough insolation and no
remnant MCS cloud debris to keep temperatures at or slightly
above Friday's maxes. Dewpoints may be near 70 along and south
of i-85 and without adequate mixing, the airmass will be rather
uncomfortable with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s possible.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 145 pm edt Wednesday: starting Sunday morning with the 500mb
pattern showing the ridge axis from mobile to nashville to detroit.

Sunday morning may the in between period of mcss. If the models are
right in timing, the next MCS would arrive late Sunday and through
the evening as it weakens and moves across from north to south.

Forecast instability is rather high late Sunday west of i-26 with
capes in the 2000 to 3000 range. Therefore, particularly if the sun
has some time to warm the surface layer ahead of the system, there
could be some strong to even severe storms. After this system moves
out late Sunday night, mostly dry weather expected on Monday until
late when the nc mountains begin to be impacted by the approaching
shortwave. The shortwave looks robust crossing tn on Monday,
however, models weaken the convection significantly crossing the
mountains late Monday night. Capes ahead of the shortwave are
forecast to be 1500 to 2000 west of i-26 late Monday. The strong
shortwave pushes the ridge out over the atlantic then a ridge builds
over texas and ok into mid week while we will be in some form of a
trough.Temperatures about a category above normal.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: mainlyVFR conds thru the period outside of
convec cells. There could be some lowering vsby across mtn valleys
this morning into MVFR or even ifr but it shud be isol and fairly
short-lived due to increasing bl flow. A line of convective activity
will move into the nc mtns this morning and work it S way east thru
the evening. All sites have a prob30 TS with early onset around 18z
at kavl and later arnd 21z at kclt. Winds will become moderately
gusty this afternoon as the p grad tightens and all sites have
lowering gusts continuing aft 00z. No flight restrictions after the
storms pushes east overnight Thu as dry hipres moves in and the
llvls remain well mixed.

Outlook: some drying is expected on Friday. Saturday remains fairly
uncertain as a frontal boundary lingers in the area and additional
showers and thunderstorms may move southeast into the region along
the front. A more diurnal pattern to any isolated to sct showers
and thunderstorms is then expected Sunday and Monday. Expect mainly
daybreak restrictions each day, aside from any thunderstorms.

Confidence table...

05-11z 11-17z 17-23z 23-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% low 54% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 51 mi64 min SSE 1 G 1.9 74°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi34 min SW 8.9 G 13 79°F 1008.1 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC5 mi61 minSSW 510.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1007.9 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi62 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds76°F69°F79%1007.4 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC21 mi60 minSSW 510.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1007.4 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC22 mi3.1 hrsN 010.00 miFair79°F69°F74%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3SW4SW5SW6SW5SW8SW7SW8S8W11SW7SW8SW13
G20
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G16
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1 day agoSW5SW6S3CalmSW3S3S6SW6SW9S5SW116
G15
SW75SW53SW4SW4CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW6SW6SW4SW4SW4SW4SW8SW10SW8SW10W9SW10SW7SW6W12
G17
S85S5S4CalmS4S5S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.