Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Trail, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Trail, NC
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location: 35.07, -80.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 211046
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
646 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will weaken across the region today, as a weak frontal
boundary approaches from the north. The front will stall out
on Friday and then lift back north as a warm front early Saturday. A
more robust cold front will move over the area from the north on
Monday.

Near term through tonight
As of 640 am: very isolated brief showers continue to develop across
and near the southern appalachians this morning, and slight chances
for shra will continue. The leading edge of more substantive
convective activity associated with leading edge of a warm conveyor
belt region is currently moving across northern al southeast tn, at
least a couple of hours faster than earlier anticipated. Pop timing
has therefore been adjusted earlier in most locations through the
morning and early afternoon.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will relinquish its control over the
weather within our forecast area today, with moderately strong,
cyclonic diffluent upper flow expected to develop over the area ese
of upper level low pressure wobbling across the mid-miss river
valley. Fairly extensive mid and high level cloud cover will
continue to sweep across the area from the southwest throughout the
day, although there should be plenty of filtered and unfiltered
glimpses of the sun, especially across the piedmont. Nevertheless,
continued poor mid-level lapse rates (only around 5 c km) will
combine with temps that will be around 3 degrees cooler than
yesterday (thanks to lower thickness values and perhaps more cloud
cover) to yield relatively modest levels of cape, which should peak
in the 1500-2000 j kg range across much of the area this afternoon.

Of greater note is the increase in deep layer forcing that will
overspread the area later today, as warm conveyor belt band of
moisture pushes across the region through the afternoon.

While sufficient instability and differential heating may exist to
allow a few cells to fire over the high terrain during early mid
afternoon, it is this feature that will be responsible for the bulk
of any convection over the forecast area later today, and likely
pops are warranted across much of the northern half of the area,
with solid chances to the south. Despite the expected modest levels
of cape, sufficient shear and forcing should be present to support
some degree of convective organization as the moisture band spreads
across the area from late afternoon into the evening. A localized
downburst threat is possible, particularly across our eastern areas,
which will have a higher chances of realizing significant
instability. Convective chances diminish gradually through the
evening, as the deeper forcing and moisture shift to the coast.

However, the pattern will be supportive of at least isolated
coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms well into the
overnight.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday: a 568 dam low over il will slowly lift ne
into the southern great lakes Friday, bringing cyclonic swly flow
atop the fa. This will also increase 0-6 km bulk shear to the 30-45
kt range by the aftn. This is decent for this time of year for at
least some organized convection. However, models have trended lower
on instability, possibly due to weak lapse rates and a fair amount
of mid cloudiness lingering during the peak heating hours. The new
day 2 SPC outlook has a marginal risk western 2 3rds of the fa, with
a slight risk further west over the central gulf states. Model
consensus on pops are trending a bit lower as well, now mainly
40-50% in the piedmont and 50-70% in the mountains. MAX temps will
be closer to normal under partly to mostly cloudy skies. The best
forcing associated with the pivoting upper low will be Friday night,
and the models generally agree on lingering pops thru most of the
night. Temps will remain elevated above normal under plenty of
clouds.

The upper wave lifts north of the area on Saturday, flattening the
flow across the southeast. A weak front pushes into the fa from the
north, but only really brings in some lower dewpts, but not lower
thicknesses. So Saturday now looks a little drier, with temps
rebounding slightly from Friday's highs. SBCAPE remains on the low
side in all the deterministic guidance, with a pocket of 2000-4000
j kg across central al ga. Westerly steering flow will try to bring
activity into the nc mountains and NE ga, but may weaken as it
enters less unstable air. Pops will feature only slight chc across
the area, except chc along the tn border and across NE ga. Pops
linger along the tn border Saturday night, with help from upslope
flow, but otherwise, convection should wane. Lows about 4-5 degrees
above normal.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 330 am Thursday: the upper level pattern will amplify during
the medium range, with a trough digging across the northeast Sunday
and Monday. This will push off the east coast by Tuesday, as an
upper ridge builds in across most of the eastern CONUS thru
Wednesday. The 00z GFS has come in with a piece of energy breaking
off from the trough and closing off into a compact low just south of
the outer banks. The 00z canadian also hints at this, while the
ecmwf just pushes the shortwave thru and builds the center of the
ridge in that place. This doesn't result in that much difference in
sensible wx for our area, except the GFS is drier and a little
cooler. For now, will stick close the wpc progs, which are closer to
the ecmwf. In fact, temps have trended warmer (and the forecast
drier) for most of the medium range in this cycle. Temps back into
the lower to mid 90s Sunday (and possibly Monday), with heat index
values back into the 100-104 range in portions of the piedmont.

Temps should still come down a bit by Tuesday, as a modified
canadian air mass builds in to our north. Pops will feature a
diurnal chc each day in the mountains, but trend toward slgt chc or
sub-mentionable by Wednesday.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: an area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with upper level disturbance and attendant moisture band
will gradually intensify as it overspreads the region today,
reaching kavl by early afternoon, the foothills by mid-afternoon,
and kclt by mid-to-late afternoon. Confidence in convection remains
sufficient to include a categorical mention of shra vcts at kavl
khky kgsp kgmu during these times. I suspect tempos will eventually
be required at kclt and kand, but confidence in timing is
insufficient to go with anything more than a vcts vcsh at these
sites for the time being. Convective chances will gradually dwindle
during the evening, but potential for at least isolated convection
will linger through the end of the period, and prob30s are carried
at all terminals into the early part of the overnight. Winds will
generally remain W NW through much of the morning, but are expected
to turn toward the SW and increase to 5-10 kts during the afternoon.

Restrictions in fog and low CIGS are possible late tonight, but
should depend largely upon occurrence and timing of any precip this
afternoon evening, and are thus omitted from the forecasts attm.

Outlook: a typical summer pattern is anticipated over the weekend,
with mainly scattered afternoon evening thunderstorms, and patchy
morning fog and low stratus in locations with wet ground and or the
mountain valleys. A slow-moving or stalled front will bring better
chances for convection and restrictions early next week.

Confidence table...

10-16z 16-22z 22-04z 04-06z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 51 mi54 min N 5.1 G 7 88°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi64 min W 6 G 7 83°F 1010.5 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC5 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair86°F70°F59%1010.7 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi32 minNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F71°F61%1010.7 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC21 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair85°F73°F68%1010.2 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC22 mi34 minN 010.00 miClear84°F68°F58%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5N44W634N736CalmCalmCalmS3SW4W4W4W4W4SW3W4SW3Calm3Calm
1 day ago4634--4W8W6W5W4W3W4SW4SW5SW4W3W4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN6
2 days agoW9W6SW7W5SW9SW6W7W6W6SW4SW3SW3S4SW3SW5SW6SW4SW5W4SW5SW4SW7W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.