Sunday, December16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Trail, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:14PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:30 PM EST (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:26PMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Trail, NC
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location: 35.07, -80.68     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 170225
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
925 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Drier air associated with broad high pressure will spread over
the region today and tomorrow and linger through midweek. Another
low pressure system is then expected to develop to our west and
bring widespread precipitation to the region for Thursday and

Near term through Monday
As of 925 pm est: NW flow continuing across the forecast area behind
the departing low pressure system. Low clouds have cleared outside
of the mountains, but cirrus will move over from the west. Across
the mountains, low clouds linger through the evening before slowly
dissipating toward daybreak. Any lingering patchy light rain and
drizzle will end this evening. Overnight low temperatures are
expected to dip into the 30s, remaining in the mid to upper 30s
across the NW piedmont and upstate. With residual saturated soils,
could not rule out patchy areas of fog towards morning.

Though lingering weak troughing looks to remain over the area on
Monday as upper ridge continues to build over the central us,
conditions are expected to remain dry and quiet with plenty of
sunshine, maybe some passing thin cirrus. Temperatures along and
south of the i-85 corridor will warm into the low 60s, back into the
upper 50s towards the escarpment, and slightly cooler across the

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
As of 140 pm est Sunday: quiet weather persists in to the short term
with weakening broad northwesterly flow aloft Tuesday transitioning
southwesterly well in advance of the late weeks system which will
begin organizing across the southern plains by Wednesday. Can't rule
out some patchy fog under mostly clear skies Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, expect increasing mid to high level clouds as early as
Tuesday night, but more likely Wednesday. Seasonal temperatures are
expected through the period.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 315 pm est Sunday: model guidance is gradually coming into
better agreement with the storm system for late in the work week. A
strong 150+ mph jet streak is expected to dive down into the west
side of the trough over the southern plains Thursday as is continues
its trek towards the deep south. Increasing upper level divergence
aloft on the cyclonic side (east side) of the trough will fuel
fairly rapid intensification of the surface reflection of the
cyclone as it moves roughly along or just west of the appalachians
into the eastern great lakes Thursday into Friday, before pressing
further into southeast canada. The net result will be increasing and
lowering clouds across the forecast area early in the day on
Thursday before increasing south to southeasterly flow over weak
insitu damming brings increasing rain chances from south to north
Thursday afternoon and evening and continuing overnight. The latest
guidance indicates that a developing warm sector may push into the
region Thursday evening or night, scouring out any remaining insitu
damming. There are even signs that some thunderstorms may be severe
(low cape, high shear). However, this potential will be highly
dependent on the eventual track of the sfc low and erosion of any in-
situ damming in place. As a result of the uncertainty this far out,
have limited thunderstorms just before mentionable levels for now to
match surrounding offices. Developing northwest flow (gusty across
the mtns) on the back side of the system will likely bring continued
shower activity focused across the nc mountains near the tn border
Friday. Much uncertainty remains for this portion of the forecast,
although accumulating snowfall is possible, especially across higher
elevations. Things will dry out over the weekend with a return to
mostly sunny skies. Near to below normal temperatures are expected
Thursday through Saturday, possibly moderating to above normal,
especially east of the mountains Sunday as cold air advection
relaxes under mostly sunny skies.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
At kclt and elsewhere: low clouds are dissipating moving east
outside of the mountains but hanging tough across the mountains. In
fact, looks like they'll increase to bring a ceiling in at kavl
during the evening before scattering out toward morning. Do not
expect any precip at kavl. Khky will be able to see the low clouds
in the distance. Otherwise, cirrus will be the main cloud type
overnight. Winds have been tricky with weak lee trough developing.

Generally kept wind wnw with some wsw possible toward morning. Wnw
wind returns for the nc sites with W or wsw for sc. Kavl keeps the
usual nnw wind throughout with low end gusts on Monday. Guidance
suggesting MVFR vsby possible at the sc sites. However, conditions
don't look very favorable. Will leave out for now. Clouds, low over
the mountains and cirrus elsewhere, diminish through the day Monday.

Outlook: a wet low pressure system looks likely to bring
restrictions Thursday, perhaps lasting into Friday in some areas.

Otherwise, expectVFR.

Confidence table...

02-08z 08-14z 14-20z 20-00z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 94% high 98% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 51 mi61 min Calm G 1.9 44°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi71 min W 7 G 8.9 51°F 1016.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC5 mi38 minW 310.00 miFair48°F39°F71%1018.4 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi39 minW 310.00 miFair47°F41°F80%1017.4 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC21 mi37 minNW 510.00 miFair48°F41°F77%1017.6 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC22 mi1.7 hrsNW 410.00 miFair48°F41°F76%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW7SW10SW6SW9W9W9W11W7W11W5SW8SW10SW11SW11W9W12W11
1 day agoN6N6NE8N7N6N5N5NE10E5N4W3W10NE5NE3CalmSW4SW3SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.