Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Blacksburg, SC
May 18, 2024 1:16 AM EDT (05:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM Moonset 2:42 AM |
AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 824 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
.tornado watch 256 in effect until 1 am edt Saturday - .
Rest of tonight - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: northwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and east 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday through Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 824 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis -
showers will move into the waters over se ga through midnight as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for Thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure Wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
showers will move into the waters over se ga through midnight as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for Thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure Wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KGSP 180346 AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1146 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front and weak low pressure system will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms today into the weekend. Somewhat drier conditions return early next week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast during the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1030 PM Friday: Precipitation has lifted north of the CFWA, so lowered PoPs in response. Extensive cloudiness will hold strong through the overnight with more showers possible later into the night. Otherwise, no major updates needed as the forecast remains on track.
Problem once again appears to be convection to the south...this time a band of rain and thunderstorms across south central AL/south central GA, to the north of a warm front stretched out north of the FL Panhandle, which was contributing much of the cloud cover that was limiting our buoyancy to 1000 J/kg or less. Temp/Dewpt trends still look ok, but without much buoyancy or forcing, and a lack of a trigger, it's starting to look like even scattered showers might be a stretch. Precip probs will be nudged downward as a result.
The situation should change this evening as better forcing will move up from the southwest, including improved upper divergence, mid-level DPVA as a few ripples of vorticity lift northeast from the upper system over the Arklatex, and low level isentropic lift as the warm front also lifts northward. Precip probs are expected to increase thru the evening in response, perhaps with some elevated thunderstorms. However, the concentration of convection might never be more than scattered. Any precip will help to keep/maintain a cool pool across much of the region. If the precip fails to develop, we could get areas of fog
Low temps should remain mild
and generally five degrees above normal. That sets the stage for Saturday, when we have some concern for severe storms. The upper system will continue to approach from the southwest through the afternoon with improved forcing, but it remains unclear as to the severe storm potential. The CAMs look unimpressed and depict mainly garden-variety thunderstorms in the afternoon, with the environment characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg of sbCAPE and maybe 25-30 kt of effective shear, which is nothing to sneeze at, so we will have to keep an eye on what develops. However, for now, agree with the SPC Day 2 Marginal, as the better shear and instability will stay to our southeast. High temps will be right around normal.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Short Term Key Messages
1) Models are trending drier Sunday into Monday.
2) The severe weather potential looks minimal through the period.
3) Highs on Monday are trending warmer.
An upper trough and associated upper low will gradually push eastward across Georgia the Carolinas Saturday evening into Sunday.
12Z CAMs show shower and thunderstorm activity lingering over the forecast area, especially the northern zones, Saturday evening into late Saturday night before gradually diminishing in coverage through daybreak Sunday. Thus, have the likely PoPs (55%-65%) confined to the northern two-thirds of the CWA through midnight. Capped PoPs to chance (40%-54%) across the southern third of the CWA through midnight as coverage of convection is expected to be lower. The locally heavy rainfall threat will continue through Saturday night thanks to 90th percentile PWATs lingering over the region. 12Z CAMs are trending towards much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, with any activity looking to be limited to the mountain zones. Thus, have likely PoPs (55%-63%) across the mountains with chance PoPs (40%-54%) elsewhere. PoPs may need to be lowered further on Sunday if this trend of lower coverage of convection continues. Drier air looks to filer into the forecast area from the north throughout Sunday, allowing PWATs to gradually lower. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will be limited somewhat, especially if the lower coverage of convection holds true. With much lower deep shear values expected on Sunday, the severe threat should be very low, if any. However, global models do show 1,000-1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE over the mountains during peak daytime heating, so an isolated strong storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out. The upper trough and associated upper low will continue pushing eastward Sunday evening into early Monday morning, eventually pushing offshore. Sfc high pressure will build into the region behind the departing low, leading to drier conditions Sunday night into Monday.
However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening over the mountains per the latest global models. Thus, have chance PoPs (15%-25%) in place across the mountain zones. The severe weather potential looks minimal, if any, on Monday due to even lower deep shear values and SBCAPE values generally at or below 1,000 J/kg. Lows Saturday night will end up ~5- 8 degrees above climo thanks to cloud cover and rain. Lows Sunday night will end up near climo to a few degrees above climo thanks to lower cloud cover and drier conditions. Highs on Sunday will be ~2-6 degrees below climo. Highs across the mountains on Monday will be a few degrees above climo, with highs elsewhere near climo to a few degrees below climo.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: Long Term Key Messages
1) Mostly dry conditions should linger through Wednesday night.
2) Isolated diurnal convection is possible on both Tuesday and Wednesday in the North Carolina mountains.
3) A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances late next week, but timing differences remain between the global models.
Sfc high pressure will remain over Georgia and the Carolinas leading to mostly dry conditions through mid-week but isolated diurnal convection will be possible each day. With global models generally showing <1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and weak deep shear during peak heating, the severe threat looks to be low, if any. A cold front will approach out of the west Wednesday before pushing across the forecast area late Thursday into early Friday increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. The 12Z GFS shows precip pushing east of the area by Friday afternoon with dry high pressure building in behind the front. Meanwhile, the Canadian and ECMWF show a wave of low pressure tracking along the stalled frontal boundary on Friday, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity around. With models not in agreement regarding on whether precip will linger through the end of the work week, capped PoPS to chance (25%-45%) on Thursday and Friday. Deep shear will increase in association with the front towards the end of the workweek. This combined with 1,000-1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE each afternoon, may lead to strong to severe storm development. However, with this being towards the end of the long term period, confidence will be low on the severe potential. Both high and low temps through the period will remain a few to several degrees above climo as a gradual warming trend is expected through the workweek.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR/MVFR cigs continue to roam the area as rainfall became more widespread than expected and cloud bases responded by lowering. Rainfall has lifted out of the area outside of a few areas of drizzle. Wind light S to SE. Overnight, a surge of low level moisture is planned that brings a ceiling restriction into the area along with any precip, then locks in an IFR stratus deck and variable winds. If the precip coverage is less than expected, we may get widespread fog. Once that gets locked in, it should persist through the morning hours and not break up until midday Saturday.
Beyond that, convection may develop, but that is beyond all but the period for KCLT. Added a PROB30 for thunderstorms there.
Outlook: Periods of convection, which could be widespread at times, are expected through the weekend. Late night/early morning restrictions in low stratus and/or fog will also be possible. Drier weather is expected to return early in the next work week.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1146 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front and weak low pressure system will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms today into the weekend. Somewhat drier conditions return early next week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast during the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1030 PM Friday: Precipitation has lifted north of the CFWA, so lowered PoPs in response. Extensive cloudiness will hold strong through the overnight with more showers possible later into the night. Otherwise, no major updates needed as the forecast remains on track.
Problem once again appears to be convection to the south...this time a band of rain and thunderstorms across south central AL/south central GA, to the north of a warm front stretched out north of the FL Panhandle, which was contributing much of the cloud cover that was limiting our buoyancy to 1000 J/kg or less. Temp/Dewpt trends still look ok, but without much buoyancy or forcing, and a lack of a trigger, it's starting to look like even scattered showers might be a stretch. Precip probs will be nudged downward as a result.
The situation should change this evening as better forcing will move up from the southwest, including improved upper divergence, mid-level DPVA as a few ripples of vorticity lift northeast from the upper system over the Arklatex, and low level isentropic lift as the warm front also lifts northward. Precip probs are expected to increase thru the evening in response, perhaps with some elevated thunderstorms. However, the concentration of convection might never be more than scattered. Any precip will help to keep/maintain a cool pool across much of the region. If the precip fails to develop, we could get areas of fog
Low temps should remain mild
and generally five degrees above normal. That sets the stage for Saturday, when we have some concern for severe storms. The upper system will continue to approach from the southwest through the afternoon with improved forcing, but it remains unclear as to the severe storm potential. The CAMs look unimpressed and depict mainly garden-variety thunderstorms in the afternoon, with the environment characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg of sbCAPE and maybe 25-30 kt of effective shear, which is nothing to sneeze at, so we will have to keep an eye on what develops. However, for now, agree with the SPC Day 2 Marginal, as the better shear and instability will stay to our southeast. High temps will be right around normal.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Short Term Key Messages
1) Models are trending drier Sunday into Monday.
2) The severe weather potential looks minimal through the period.
3) Highs on Monday are trending warmer.
An upper trough and associated upper low will gradually push eastward across Georgia the Carolinas Saturday evening into Sunday.
12Z CAMs show shower and thunderstorm activity lingering over the forecast area, especially the northern zones, Saturday evening into late Saturday night before gradually diminishing in coverage through daybreak Sunday. Thus, have the likely PoPs (55%-65%) confined to the northern two-thirds of the CWA through midnight. Capped PoPs to chance (40%-54%) across the southern third of the CWA through midnight as coverage of convection is expected to be lower. The locally heavy rainfall threat will continue through Saturday night thanks to 90th percentile PWATs lingering over the region. 12Z CAMs are trending towards much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, with any activity looking to be limited to the mountain zones. Thus, have likely PoPs (55%-63%) across the mountains with chance PoPs (40%-54%) elsewhere. PoPs may need to be lowered further on Sunday if this trend of lower coverage of convection continues. Drier air looks to filer into the forecast area from the north throughout Sunday, allowing PWATs to gradually lower. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will be limited somewhat, especially if the lower coverage of convection holds true. With much lower deep shear values expected on Sunday, the severe threat should be very low, if any. However, global models do show 1,000-1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE over the mountains during peak daytime heating, so an isolated strong storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out. The upper trough and associated upper low will continue pushing eastward Sunday evening into early Monday morning, eventually pushing offshore. Sfc high pressure will build into the region behind the departing low, leading to drier conditions Sunday night into Monday.
However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening over the mountains per the latest global models. Thus, have chance PoPs (15%-25%) in place across the mountain zones. The severe weather potential looks minimal, if any, on Monday due to even lower deep shear values and SBCAPE values generally at or below 1,000 J/kg. Lows Saturday night will end up ~5- 8 degrees above climo thanks to cloud cover and rain. Lows Sunday night will end up near climo to a few degrees above climo thanks to lower cloud cover and drier conditions. Highs on Sunday will be ~2-6 degrees below climo. Highs across the mountains on Monday will be a few degrees above climo, with highs elsewhere near climo to a few degrees below climo.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: Long Term Key Messages
1) Mostly dry conditions should linger through Wednesday night.
2) Isolated diurnal convection is possible on both Tuesday and Wednesday in the North Carolina mountains.
3) A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances late next week, but timing differences remain between the global models.
Sfc high pressure will remain over Georgia and the Carolinas leading to mostly dry conditions through mid-week but isolated diurnal convection will be possible each day. With global models generally showing <1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and weak deep shear during peak heating, the severe threat looks to be low, if any. A cold front will approach out of the west Wednesday before pushing across the forecast area late Thursday into early Friday increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. The 12Z GFS shows precip pushing east of the area by Friday afternoon with dry high pressure building in behind the front. Meanwhile, the Canadian and ECMWF show a wave of low pressure tracking along the stalled frontal boundary on Friday, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity around. With models not in agreement regarding on whether precip will linger through the end of the work week, capped PoPS to chance (25%-45%) on Thursday and Friday. Deep shear will increase in association with the front towards the end of the workweek. This combined with 1,000-1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE each afternoon, may lead to strong to severe storm development. However, with this being towards the end of the long term period, confidence will be low on the severe potential. Both high and low temps through the period will remain a few to several degrees above climo as a gradual warming trend is expected through the workweek.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR/MVFR cigs continue to roam the area as rainfall became more widespread than expected and cloud bases responded by lowering. Rainfall has lifted out of the area outside of a few areas of drizzle. Wind light S to SE. Overnight, a surge of low level moisture is planned that brings a ceiling restriction into the area along with any precip, then locks in an IFR stratus deck and variable winds. If the precip coverage is less than expected, we may get widespread fog. Once that gets locked in, it should persist through the morning hours and not break up until midday Saturday.
Beyond that, convection may develop, but that is beyond all but the period for KCLT. Added a PROB30 for thunderstorms there.
Outlook: Periods of convection, which could be widespread at times, are expected through the weekend. Late night/early morning restrictions in low stratus and/or fog will also be possible. Drier weather is expected to return early in the next work week.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| KBMG1 | 1 mi | 46 min | 74°F | 29.96 | ||||
| FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL | 7 mi | 46 min | N 4.1G | 78°F | 80°F | 29.96 | ||
| BLIF1 | 26 mi | 46 min | ESE 4.1G | 77°F | 29.98 | 76°F | ||
| MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL | 26 mi | 46 min | ESE 2.9G | 77°F | 79°F | 29.99 | ||
| DMSF1 | 27 mi | 46 min | 80°F | |||||
| LTJF1 | 27 mi | 46 min | 77°F | 76°F | ||||
| NFDF1 | 27 mi | 46 min | S 2.9G | 78°F | 29.97 | 78°F | ||
| JXUF1 | 30 mi | 46 min | 80°F | |||||
| BKBF1 | 41 mi | 46 min | SSE 4.1G | 78°F | 29.95 | |||
| SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA | 46 mi | 76 min | S 13 | 73°F | 29.92 | 73°F |
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEHO SHELBYCLEVELAND COUNTY RGNL,NC | 15 sm | 11 min | SSW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 29.88 | |
| KAKH GASTONIA MUNI,NC | 20 sm | 22 min | SSW 03 | 9 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 29.87 | |
| KUZA ROCK HILL/YORK CO/BRYANT FIELD,SC | 23 sm | 22 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 29.88 | |
| KDCM CHESTER CATAWBA RGNL,SC | 24 sm | 21 min | SSW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 64°F | 100% | 29.90 |
Seacamp Dock
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:58 AM EDT 6.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:16 AM EDT 1.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:38 PM EDT 6.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:46 PM EDT 1.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:58 AM EDT 6.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:16 AM EDT 1.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:38 PM EDT 6.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:46 PM EDT 1.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Seacamp Dock, Cumberland Island, Georgia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.9 |
| 2 am |
| 4 |
| 3 am |
| 5 |
| 4 am |
| 5.8 |
| 5 am |
| 6 |
| 6 am |
| 5.7 |
| 7 am |
| 5 |
| 8 am |
| 3.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 6 |
| 6 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Chester
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT 6.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT 1.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT 6.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM EDT 1.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT 6.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT 1.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT 6.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM EDT 1.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chester, Bells River, St. Marys River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 4.9 |
| 4 am |
| 5.7 |
| 5 am |
| 6 |
| 6 am |
| 5.9 |
| 7 am |
| 5.2 |
| 8 am |
| 4.1 |
| 9 am |
| 3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 5 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Greer, SC,
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