Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trent Woods, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:28PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:36 PM EST (22:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 253 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Thursday evening...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, increasing to very rough after midnight. A chance of showers until early morning, then showers likely late.
Thu..S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 13 ft, subsiding to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 9 to 12 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trent Woods, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 232013
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
313 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight into Thursday,
then move offshore Thursday night. High pressure builds in from
the west by Friday into Monday. Another cold front will
approach the area by mid next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 230 pm Wednesday... Moisture will cont to increase over the
region tonight as srly flow conts. Low lvl jet ramps up after
midnight and expect limited precip thru midnight then shld
increase espcly inland as better lifts begins to work in from
the W ahead of front. Kept pops in low chc to slight chc range
thru 06z then grad ramp up to categorical deep inland and chc
far E late. Mdls show very little if any instab thru overnight
so kept as shra for now. S winds will be quite gusty all areas
espcly late as low lvl jet develops. Extremely mild lows in the
55 to 60 dgr range expected.

Short term Thursday
As of 230 pm Wednesday... A bevy of impacts will be possible
Thursday morning into the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds
will be very strong out of the ssw for the first half of the
day with wind gusts of 40-50 mph likely along the outer banks
and coastal carteret and mainland dare counties. A wind advisory
has been issued for these areas. An expansive area of
prefrontal rain and convection also appears likely, which will
lead to 1"-1.5" of rain, with the heaviest amounts along the
coast. Although instab will remain quite weak a few
thunderstorms will be possible and given strength of low lvl jet
(60+ knots at 925mb) stronger convective elements will have
potential to produce damaging winds. Will maintain categorical
pops for the morning hours, and then grad end pops from W to e
thru the aftn as deeper moisture slides offshore. Temperatures
will be very warm for most of the day, with readings approaching
70 inland.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 3 pm wed... Drier and colder air return for Friday through
the weekend. Rain chances increase by Tuesday into midweek as a
weak low and cold front approach the area.

Friday through Sunday... Behind exiting storm system and cold
front, a deep longwave trough will anchor itself over the most
of the CONUS centered over the midwest and deep south. Arctic
cold front, albeit modified, will bring cold temps back into e
nc with near to slightly below climo temps, with highs expected
in the 45-50 degree range both Fri and sat. Good radiational
cooling expected, with coldest readings on Fri night in the
low mid 20s away from the beaches, and in the low 30s on the
beaches. Latest model trends don't show as strong of a cold air
blast, and heights will begin building by Sunday and as a result
temps climb back to climo, with afternoon highs 50-55 degrees in
southwest winds though continued mostly sunny skies.

Monday through Tuesday... 23 12z forecast guidance has continued
trend on ridging through Monday and therefore lesser chances of
coastal storm development and therefore continued dry fcst. By
Tuesday however, reinforcement of arctic airmass centered acorss
the upper midwest will send a shortwave and cold front towards
the region again. A weak area of low pressure is expected to
track somewhere up the east coast on Tuesday ahead of the
approaching cold front. Will continue the trend of chance pops
on Tuesday, as ECMWF continues to be most consistent and has
support from the cmc, though GFS continues to be a drier
outlier. Temperatures through this period will be milder, with
highs mostly in the 50s, and possibly some low 60s on Tuesday.

Lows will be near to a bit above avg.

Wednesday... Next arctic cold front will push through by
mid week with a return to below climo temps and dry weather.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 1210 pm Wednesday... Still expecting mainlyVFR thru the
night with subVFR developing near daybreak as better cvrg of
shra crosses ahead of front that will cont thru early aftn. Very
strong low lvl jet develops over region late tonight thru thu
morn and expect low lvl wind shear during this time. S winds
will gust up to 25 kt at times thru the night and poss 30 kts or
so Thu morn. Very little instab expected ahead of front so tsra
shld be limited but any that develop early Thu could have very
gusty winds.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 300 pm wed...VFR mainly skc are expected to return by
Thursday evening and last through early next week.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 230 pm Wednesday... Very dangerous boating conditions
develop tonight and cont Thu ahead of a cold front. S winds will
ramp up 25 to 35 kts tonight and then expect ssw winds to peak
30 to 40 kts Thu with some gusts approaching 50 kts. Have gale
warnings developing all wtrs tonight and cont most of thu. Winds
will begin to shift to the W and grad diminish late Thu as
front reaches cst. The strong winds will lead to seas building
to 9 to 13 feet late tonight then peaking at 12 to 20 feet
thu... Highest outer central wtrs.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 3 pm wed... Winds turn to the NW at 10-20 kts behind the
front Thursday night, and then slowly diminish a bit more to
10-15 kt Fri through Fri night. Winds then back to SW but will
remain light on sat. Seas will slowly subside to less than 6
feet by late Friday afternoon into early Fri evening.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 am wed... Strong winds on Thursday will lead to high
water levels on the soundside of the outer banks north of cape
hatteras, where inundation up to 1 foot will be possible. High
surf is expected across the southern facing beaches with minor
beach erosion possible.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm est Thursday for
ncz047-095-103-104.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 am to 5 pm est Thursday for
ncz103.

High surf advisory from 5 am Thursday to 1 am est Friday for
ncz095-103-104.

High surf advisory from 8 am to 3 pm est Thursday for ncz098.

Marine... Gale warning from 5 am to 2 pm est Thursday for amz136-137.

Gale warning from 1 am to 7 pm est Thursday for amz135.

Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Thursday for amz130-131.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Thursday for
amz152-154-156-158.

Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf
short term... Rf
long term... Tl sgk
aviation... Rf tl
marine... Rf tl
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 34 mi49 min SSE 14 G 19 48°F1023 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi37 min SSE 19 G 23 1023.2 hPa (-3.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC3 mi2.7 hrsSSE 9 G 165.00 miOvercast with Haze63°F53°F70%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Wed -- 04:18 AM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:23 AM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:02 PM EST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:50 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.90.2-0.3-0.6-0.5-00.71.52.12.52.42.11.50.80.1-0.4-0.6-0.40.20.91.522.1

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:16 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:17 AM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:00 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:44 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.50.1-0.2-0.4-0.300.50.91.31.51.51.20.90.40-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.611.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.