Saturday, March25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:33PM Saturday March 25, 2017 9:38 AM EDT (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 4:08PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 251140
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
740 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the carolinas and va
through the weekend. A weakening upper level disturbance will cross
our region on Sunday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 400 am Saturday...

little change in the forecast of warm sswly flow and partly sunny
conditions today, and mild and continued dry tonight.

The models have trended slower with the lifting of a closed upper
low now over ok, likely as a result of ridging within, and greater
spatial separation from, the main belt of the NRN stream westerlies
along the canadian border. Nonetheless, the upper low will likely
maintain a steady, albeit slower, newd progression to near kstl by
12z sun, as an upstream "kicker" shortwave trough amplifies through
the four corners region, from the ca coast this morning.

While low amplitude perturbations in sswly flow aloft will spread e
of the main upper low and result in weak (10-20 meter) height mid
level falls over nc today, preceding sub-tropical ridging centered
over the WRN atlantic --and associated subsidence drying and capping
influence wwd into the carolinas-- will continue to dominate our
weather today. Rap temperatures have performed better than other
guidance with dry adiabatic mixing through 900-850 mb in recent
days; and see no reason to deviate from this guidance that favors
high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s today.

Tonight: sswly stirring around the WRN periphery of the sub-tropical
ridge/bermuda high, and considerable high clouds topping probable
late-night stratus, should result in milder-than-guidance low
temperatures, in the middle to upper 50s. While glancing forcing for
ascent downstream of the lifting upper low will continue to pivot
newd across central and WRN nc late tonight, associated forecast
omega is centered in the mid levels where dry air from the subsident
sub-tropical ridge will be maximized. As such, it seems unlikely
that any band of upstream showers will survive and/or arrive even in
the WRN piedmont prior to 12z, so the forecast will be a dry one
through early sun.

Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/
As of 400 am Saturday...

the upper low over the southern plains states will lift to
toward the great lakes and weaken today through Sunday, while a
bermuda high continues to provide a warm southerly wind over the
carolinas. Ongoing convection in the southern appalachians
Sunday morning should weaken as it moves out ahead of the
primary cold front and the upper low, while becoming negatively
tilted, weakens and passes well to our northwest. Aside form the
western piedmont, where 40-60m height falls appears to erode a
fairly stout capping inversion, the rest of central and eastern
nc remains capped by the sub-tropical ridge. Models continue to
trend drier for most of central nc, and pops have been adjusted
down to just a chance west of us 1 on Sunday. Widespread cloud
cover and possible showers will likely hold temps back a little
in the west, but southerly flow should still allow highs to
reach the mid 70s in the east.

Models cranks out some light QPF Sunday night, but this looks
over done, and stratus looks to be the only really issue, with
mild lows in the mid and upper 50s.

Long term /Monday through Friday/
As of 400 am Saturday...

with split flow persisting over the western us, yet another
shortwave is forecast to eject east across the mid-south Monday
and Tuesday. Better destablization is expected each day as the
low-levels continue to moisten around the bermuda high, though
limited forcing makes it hard to see more than isolated showers
and storms on Monday. The relatively weak upper wave will cross
nc late Monday night and Tuesday, and should result in a better
chance of storms as it interacts with better instability on
Tuesday. Highs both days will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The ridge aloft will then build back over the region Wednesday
ahead of another upper low moving into the central plains.

Meanwhile, a cold front is progged to push backdoor into nc
Wednesday night and Thursday on the heels, though its still
unclear how far south the front will get given the presence of
the upper ridge. The GFS is much more aggressive with the front
but also has a much more amplified northern stream flow. Temps
will be knocked back into the 60s and lower 70s, with a possible
cold air damming scenario setting up as high pressure migrates
across the great lakes and the aforementioned low pressure
system moves through the midwest.

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 740 am Saturday...

vfr conditions are expected for most of the TAF period, with the
exception of a chance of ifr-MVFR stratus development late tonight-
early sun, mainly at (wrn) piedmont sites. Morning to midday heating
of a seasonably moist air mass around bermuda high pressure will
favor the development of a field of stratocumulus that will likely
develop just above MVFR range today. Otherwise, sswly surface winds
will increase into the 6-12 kt range after 14-15z, with occasional
gusts into the teens kts, then lessen after sunset.

Outlook: late night-early morning fog and/or stratus, then MVFR
range cloudiness as that moist layer is heated through midday, will
be possible each day through the middle of next week. Otherwise, a
chance of showers and associated sub-vfr conditions mainly at
piedmont TAF sites will exist sun, then again at all sites on tue.

The probability of any such shower at any given TAF site will be
relatively low, however, given limited overall coverage.

Rah watches/warnings/advisories

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Smith
long term... Smith
aviation... Mws

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi69 min SE 1 G 2.9 48°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair54°F50°F89%1029.3 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi43 minWSW 710.00 miFair61°F53°F75%1029.4 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair54°F50°F88%1027.3 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi43 minWSW 410.00 miFair59°F52°F79%1027.6 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair55°F52°F94%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE4SE7S12
1 day agoE10
2 days agoN16N14

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sat -- 01:22 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:00 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:24 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.