Thursday, November23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:07PM Thursday November 23, 2017 9:58 AM EST (14:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 231130
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
630 am est Thu nov 23 2017

Initially cool high pressure will weaken and modify as it expands
east across the middle atlantic and southeast states through Friday
night. Meanwhile, at least a couple of areas of low pressure will
track from the eastern gulf of mexico northeastward across fl and
offshore the southeastern us coast.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am Thursday...

wv satellite imagery this morning depicts a positively-tilted
longwave trough stretching from atlantic canada swwd across the cntl
appalachians, deep south, and swrn gulf of mexico. This trough will
be reinforced through tonight, as a pair of notable shortwave
troughs upstream, over the upr midwest and NRN cntl plains,
respectively, amplify sewd in nwly flow aloft. The models indicate
the one now over the upr midwest will phase with a perturbation
lifting newd from the gom portion of the positive-tilt trough, by
tonight over the carolinas. Model cross sections depict associated
strong omega over cntl and ERN nc through tonight, but all above 500
mb (centered between 300-400 mb).

At the surface, an elongated 1024 mb ridge extending this morning
from the lwr great lakes swwd into SRN tx will continue to weaken
and modify as it migrates ewd, and becomes centered over the srn
middle atlantic states by 12z fri. Meanwhile, a couple of areas of
low pressure are forecast to track, along a frontal zone, from the
ern gom newd across fl and off the sern us coast.

The main forecast problem and uncertainty will be how cirrus
cirrostratus in swly high level flow downstream of the
aforementioned positive-tilt trough axis may affect temperatures
today, mainly over the ERN half of the forecast area. Full sun
temperatures would favor highs ranging from upr 40s north to middle
50s, but the considerable high cloudiness may serve to keep
temperatures in the SRN and cntl coastal plain closer to 50 degrees.

The high clouds will edge ewd overnight, as the upper trough axis
likewise progresses ewd, with associated strong radiational cooling
supportive of upper 20s to lower 30s, highest with longest-lingering
high clouds in the coastal plain.

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 400 am Thursday...

weak shortwave ridging will briefly build across the appalachians,
between a positively-tilted trough axis forecast to progress to the
coast through the day fri, and a quickly-following trough forecast
to amplify from the upr great lakes to the lwr ms valley through sat
morning. At the surface, high pressure will continue to extend swwd
across the SRN middle atlantic states (including nc). Temperatures
will consequently continue to modify in association with the surface
ridge, with highs in the mid 50s to lwr 60s, and lows within a few
degrees either side of 35.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 320 am edt Thursday...

a series of moisture-starved shortwave troughs traversing eastward
within the eastern us long wave trough will prove of little
consequence as they move through the region, with very limited rain
chances expected to accompany the attendant sfc cold front moving
progged to move through the region late Saturday. Westerly flow
preceding the fronts arrival will result in mild daytime highs in
the low to mid 60s Saturday afternoon.

The cooler temperatures behind the cold front Sunday and Monday will
be rather short-lived as the upper ridge over the western us
transition eastwards atop the eastern us by Tuesday Wednesday. Highs
Sunday and Monday in the low to mid 50s north to upper 50s south,
then warming back up into the 60s and possibly even near 70 across
the southern coastal plain and sandhills by Wednesday.

Model spread increases with the timing of upper trough ejecting out
of the rockies with the ec a full day slower than the gfs. Despite
time discrepancies, this system, at this time, does not appear to be
one that will produce any significant and much needed rainfall.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 630 am Thursday...

cool and dry high pressure will build east across the carolinas and
result in a high probability ofVFR conditions, with periods of
considerable high level cloudiness (above 20 thousand ft),
especially at ERN sites, through early tonight. Mainly light nely
surface winds around the high will become light and variable to calm
by late this afternoon and evening, as the high settles overhead.

Outlook: waves of low pressure will track northeastward, along an
offshore frontal zone fri-sat; and there is a small chance that some
associated MVFR range moisture ceilings and light rain will edge as
far wwd as fay and rwi by late Fri or Fri night. There will be a
similarly small chance of a few showers in cntl nc, in association
with the passage of a cold front, early Sat night.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Mws
long term... Cbl
aviation... Mws

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi29 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 48°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi63 minENE 710.00 miFair40°F27°F62%1023.1 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi63 minNE 810.00 mi39°F28°F65%1023.5 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi63 minENE 610.00 miOvercast39°F29°F68%1022.1 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi67 minNE 1010.00 miFair43°F30°F63%1021.2 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi63 minENE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F28°F62%1021.7 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi79 minNE 410.00 miFair38°F30°F72%1021 hPa

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN6N12N13
1 day agoSE5SE4SE7SE6SE8SE4SE6E3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmN3CalmCalmNW6CalmNW3CalmCalm--NW3NW6
2 days agoNW7NE4CalmW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 05:34 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:44 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:05 PM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 01:00 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:48 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.